Ukraine Conflict - Beware lest in your anxiety to avoid war you obtain a master

[Chilloutman]

well making jets viable for ukraine would require hits AAs on Russian territory - somehow I feel NATO is not ready cross that line

[Zoraptor]

NATO doctrine also requires helicopters, and I'm fairly sure the four (4) helicopters pledged in the last lot of aid aren't enough either. Those aren't even enough to replace losses over the last month, and there weren't that many left to lose.

And it requires an enormous logistical tail. Which is even worse for Ukraine, since they're getting a few units of literally dozens of different systems that almost all require specialised maintenance, and don't have any existing experience on those systems, and require those men at the front.

[Malcador]

39 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

well making jets viable for ukraine would require hits AAs on Russian territory - somehow I feel NATO is not ready cross that line

Ukraine's hit Russian soil before, hitting Russian AD might not be an issue.  Would be interesting to see how effective they'd be, the eastern part of Ukraine is sort of a death trap still for both sides, no ?

[Mamoulian War]

16 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Ukraine's hit Russian soil before, hitting Russian AD might not be an issue.  Would be interesting to see how effective they'd be, the eastern part of Ukraine is sort of a death trap still for both sides, no ?

There are no plausible information for UA airforce performance on the east, but Russia sometimes hammers ground forces of UA with their airforce, and sometimes gets completely obliterated themselves, like two days ago, they lost 4 helicopters (3 of them Alligators, and 2 Su-25s).  a little bit in favour for UA says, that they can use antiradar missiles on their jets already.

[Gfted1]

M1 Abrams Tanks In U.S. Inventory Have Armor Too Secret To Send To Ukraine (thedrive.com)

Huh, I didnt know that none of the export models include DU.

[Malcador]

4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

There are no plausible information for UA airforce performance on the east, but Russia sometimes hammers ground forces of UA with their airforce, and sometimes gets completely obliterated themselves, like two days ago, they lost 4 helicopters (3 of them Alligators, and 2 Su-25s).  a little bit in favour for UA says, that they can use antiradar missiles on their jets already.

Read reports the Ukrainians are still operating aircraft, albeit low.  Then again, could be random OSINT dumbasses repeating old news.  WIll see how F-16s stack up against S-300/400s I suppose. 

 

[Mamoulian War]

26 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Read reports the Ukrainians are still operating aircraft, albeit low.  Then again, could be random OSINT dumbasses repeating old news.  WIll see how F-16s stack up against S-300/400s I suppose. 

 

From what I’ve read by various UA sources, they did 10-20 daily sorties during liberation of Kherson. I do not remember to read much news about airfights in Donbas region nowadays. One notable news, which went viral, was one Ukrainian pilot doing his sortie in Ded Moroz “outfit” during december/january. So either RU has very heavy AD in there, or there is a blackout on this kind of information. And another RU SU-25 shot down today there.

Back to F-16. Lockheed Martin is prepared to ramp up production, to accomodate for third-party reexport needs. Still no official green light on this. But it looks to me, that more and more sources are slowly “preparing the audience” for opening these floodgates.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/25/7386542/

[pmp10]

US is trying to shift Ukrainian strategy.
Surprising that they think western pledges will allow Ukrainian offensive by spring.

They won't reach frontline until summer at best and some likely won't arrive for years. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by pmp10

[Lexx]

I'd take all of this with a (very big) grain of salt if it's that big in the news. Gives me flashbacks to last year.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Lexx

[kanisatha]

Back to talking about the big picture ramifications of the war and Russia's and the world's future directions, here's a link to a think-tank site where there are several very interesting articles:

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/series/ukraine-shifting-world-order

One of the early pieces by Angela Stent about Putin's worldview is particularly interesting to me.

[Mamoulian War]

Big increase in destroyed Russian iron in the last three days. 2 more jets and 1 more chopper downed yesterday as well. (Thats’s 5 jets and 5 choppers in three days). Something big started for sure. Most likely attack on Vuhledar and Zaporizhia frontline by Russia cost them a lot again.

 

 

[BruceVC]

It looks like I can post again on Chrome, yaaaay. No more posts getting eaten 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/gdp-q4-2022-us-gdp-rose-2point9percent-in-the-fourth-quarter-more-than-expected-even-as-recession-fears-loom.html

Higher than expected US GDP numbers with 2.9% for last quarter of 2022 and other positive metrics  like lower unemployment. Its really good news and its similar to the 2% GDP growth that Germany recorded for 2022

 

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/01/PE23_020_811.html 

 And this recovery of the economies of many Western countries means less chance of any technical recession because you seeing growth which automatically moves any country out of the definition of recession which is defined as 2 quarters of negative growth and more importantly its a sign of  overall economic strength and growth. Why does this matter on this thread?

Its another example that the vacuous and propaganda fueled Vatnik economic predictions that use to get posted  regularly, they still are but much less,  are not true, not accurate and dont reflect the data around economic activity across the West. Things like gold based currencies emerging, the $ being replaced as the worlds global reserve currency, BRICS replacing the influence of Western economic hegemony and Russia creating a new "world economic order " are once again demonstrably untrue and this GDP data confirms it

But for me the most significant Vatnik propaganda that this rejects is how Western sanctions against Russia are going to cause Western economies to collapse and the old " EU citizens are going to freeze  to death " card  hyperbole 

Edited January 27, 2023 by BruceVC

[Mamoulian War]

Spanish will send older variant of Leopard 2 to Ukraine. Rumours on the internet says up to 53, although Spain did not confirm any number yet.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/28/7386889/

Slovakia will provide to Ukraine all of our Mig-29. This means two things.

- 0 jets in Slovak Army, until F-16 arrives. One of our industry companies has already transformed to be able to maintain and repair F-16s.
- 0 Russian military personnel at our Air Bases. Up to 20 are still servicing the Migs, despite Slovakia being on the list of enemy countries to Russia.

[HoonDing]

Imagine having 300 Leopards like Greece and not taking Thracia back.

[Gfted1]

Not with Turkey occupying Eastern Thracia.

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-slams-german-tank-decision-escalation-conflict-betrayal-history-2023-01-25/

This is a little old  but its still relevant around Germany doing the right thing sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine

The Russian response was the normal cringe propaganda with an attempt to " shame " Germany's decision. To quote from the link " 

More than 80 years after their country invaded Soviet Russia and Ukraine in World War Two, some Germans recoil at the idea of sending tanks into a new conflagration there, out of a sense of historic guilt that the Russian embassy statement directly tapped into.

"Berlin's choice means the final refusal of the Federal Republic of Germany to recognize its historical responsibility to our people for the terrible, timeless crimes of Nazism during the Great Patriotic War, and the consigning to oblivion of the difficult path of post-war reconciliation between Russians and Germans," Nechayev said"

Lets be honest and clear, no country has done more  to address and recognize its historical past than Germany since WW2. And I think its way overdue for Germany to become more militarized and involved in relevant conflicts if it decides its the right thing for Germany or the EU. They should have the same international  military investments as the US, France and the UK

And as far as what the Ruskies are saying, once again if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine these developments wouldnt be happening so Russia has no one to blame but themselves 

[BruceVC]

https://newsunrolled.com/economy/170541.html

The Ruskie economy is in a much worse state than I thought, they are now classifying Q4 economic data 

Go Putin, what a way to show confidence for investors  

[xzar_monty]

@BruceVC: As a side note, do you actually read Milton, or did you just pick the quote from somewhere? Either way is fine, of course. Not a lot of people read Milton these days.[*]

Milton also had Lucifer say "Better to reign in Hell, than serve in Heaven", which strikes me as the sort of thing that Putin might say the earthly equivalent of, i.e. with the religious references removed.

 

[*] If memory serves, Milton is among the last English-speaking people to use the verb "fugate". It means, "to cause someone to flee", so it could be used in a sentence such as "Singing powerful religious hymns fugates the devil". This Latin-based word has almost completely disappeared from the English language, the only remnant still left is the well-known word "fugitive", someone on the run, someone who flees. All others forms are gone.

 

Also, more unpleasant stuff from Russia:

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Mamoulian War]

And even more unpleasant stuff

 

[xzar_monty]

I wonder to what degree PTSD and other ailments caused by war are recognized and/or treated in Russia. I really have no idea. As far as I know, there is no country that handles this particularly well (do correct me here if needed), and it's also true that modern warfare can damage the CNS to an incurable extent, but I still wonder about Russia's stance on the question.

[BruceVC]

11 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

@BruceVC: As a side note, do you actually read Milton, or did you just pick the quote from somewhere? Either way is fine, of course. Not a lot of people read Milton these days.[*]

Milton also had Lucifer say "Better to reign in Hell, than serve in Heaven", which strikes me as the sort of thing that Putin might say the earthly equivalent of, i.e. with the religious references removed.

 

[*] If memory serves, Milton is among the last English-speaking people to use the verb "fugate". It means, "to cause someone to flee", so it could be used in a sentence such as "Singing powerful religious hymns fugates the devil". This Latin-based word has almost completely disappeared from the English language, the only remnant still left is the well-known word "fugitive", someone on the run, someone who flees. All others forms are gone.

 

Also, more unpleasant stuff from Russia:

 

I did read Paradise Lost, I love those types of deep and evocative poems 

But that quote I remembered from the movie The Crow, its one of my best lines in a movie 

[Mamoulian War]

11 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I wonder to what degree PTSD and other ailments caused by war are recognized and/or treated in Russia. I really have no idea. As far as I know, there is no country that handles this particularly well (do correct me here if needed), and it's also true that modern warfare can damage the CNS to an incurable extent, but I still wonder about Russia's stance on the question.

AFAIK Healthcare in Russia is currently getting worse. According to wikipedia since 2014. Life expectancy is dropping since 2019, and in rural areas it is 10 years less than in urban areas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Russia

[pmp10]

Ukraine looks to join EU within a couple of years.

No lessons learned from the NATO application process. 
But I guess you need to somehow keep the morale up in times of war.

[bugarup]

21 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

And even more unpleasant stuff

 

It's not just that. Remember those drafted convicts? Well, some of them already served (or "served". I'm reading there's a scheme running with rich and connected inmates getting "sent to war" on papers only) and are enjoying their freedom. Including, e.g., one who ordered a hit on his former business partner's family, two kids included. Even got a medal "For bravery", that one.

 

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, bugarup said:

It's not just that. Remember those drafted convicts? Well, some of them already served (or "served". I'm reading there's a scheme running with rich and connected inmates getting "sent to war" on papers only) and are enjoying their freedom. Including, e.g., one who ordered a hit on his former business partner's family, two kids included. Even got a medal "For bravery", that one.

 

Yeah read about him as well, that guy has pissed on the grave of his business partner during a funeral…

Russians must be proud to have such heroes…

 

in other sad news 3 days ago has passed away one of the Major pilots, after 141 sorties during the war. Pretty impressive record for “non-existent” air forces.