Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"

[Mamoulian War]

On 11/2/2022 at 2:05 PM, Malcador said:

Well, you hope bafflement, more often than not it's some sort of racism (highlight of one such conversation was a guy amazed that South Africa could make guns, as it's jump from spears to that.  Americans...)

Speaking of which, grain deal is back on, Erdogan and Putin had a meet

Can interpret this however you like, Erdogan intimidating Putin, Putin being more concerned with Third World.

 

Putin acknowledges with thiś that they do not have the means to enforce naval blockade of UA ports anymore, especially when Erdogan announce, that all ships will be transporting grain under Turkish flag. That’s why such a fast u-turn happened, as Putin finds it less embarassing for him, to backtrack, than to engage with Turkish navy, which has now upper hand in Black Sea Putin being concerned about third world is as much likely as him being concerned about casualties of his army

[Mamoulian War]

Translation of article by Russian Verstka newspaper, which is talking about how the conscripts are doing on the Luhansk frontlines.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/5/7375139/

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Translation of article by Russian Verstka newspaper, which is talking about how the conscripts are doing on the Luhansk frontlines.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/5/7375139/

And you wonder why Ruskies avoid the draft, it sounds horrendous 

[pmp10]

US is starting to push Ukraine towards negotiations.
They should know there is only one 'diplomatic' outcome possible at this point. 

[Lexx]

My guess is that this is in preparation of the american mid-terms soon. If the R wins, support for Ukraine will get grim. If D wins, things could probably continue for a while. It's quite interesting how much R have cranked up their pro-russian rhetoric in the past few days.

/Edit:

Quote

"In an effort to bolster international support for the ongoing war, the Biden administration is urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to reverse his previous stance and signal he is open to peace talks with Russia, according to reporting by The Washington Post.

The move is not intended to push Ukraine to the bargaining table, but instead to ease international fears about supporting an indefinite war, The Post reported, and is a sign of the increasingly complex foreign policy strategy being employed by the White House.

It has been more than eight months since the country was invaded and, while the Biden administration has pledged to financially support Ukraine for "as long as it takes," there has been growing tension among Washington lawmakers who feel US backing should not be "a free blank check."

"Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners," one US official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told The Post.

While Ukraine and Russia explored a neutrality plan in the early days of the war, atrocities committed during the invasion — including the rape of civilians and torture of prisoners — have resulted in Zelenskyy's current hard-line stance against negotiation, The Post reported.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Lexx

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

My guess is that this is in preparation of the american mid-terms soon. If the R wins, support for Ukraine will get grim. If D wins, things could probably continue for a while. It's quite interesting how much R have cranked up their pro-russian rhetoric in the past few days.

/Edit:

I dont see much of a  change with the likely GOP control of Congress, just more oversight on aid but it wont stop. 70%  or so of the US still support Ukraine. And this also because of Putin's propaganda because he turned this into a " this is war really about the US\West and Ukraine are just puppets "  when its about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the US\NATO  is not involved directly in the fighting. They provide resources and aid, thats not the same as saying " the US is at war with Russia " 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-four-americans-say-us-should-support-ukraine-despite-russian-threats-2022-10-05/

Edited November 6, 2022 by BruceVC

[xzar_monty]

Interesting thread on the situation in Kherson.

 

[Lexx]

Aren't they "withdrawing" for almost a month now?

[xzar_monty]

I don't know. But judging by the fact that Russian officials accuse Ukraine of a HIMARS strike against the dam in Kakhovka, Russians are about to destroy it.

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/871207

https://t.me/rian_ru/184552

"Accuse your enemy of that which you are doing yourself" -- an old KGB adage.

[Malcador]

On 11/5/2022 at 7:20 AM, Mamoulian War said:

Putin being concerned about third world is as much likely as him being concerned about casualties of his army

Well, the geopolitical concern.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/05/world/europe/kyiv-ukraine-electricity-russia-infrastructure.html

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-bipartisan-us-support-until-193600576.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAG6m9252r6RCLjPLGjYsxhPezC5jnkEywryxjApDBed59m1doPPXyry86Odw6t-Y4N7E7h5ea0Gg0LG4TuVtzlsUKep_QG91kNwf8HLNx1Pidn4r21Ga2JEMA1DfczFEp4FnLf3agv0CfgwaoYGJ-r1IgfitxlIgdh2mMn8Y7dDm

Related to the power concern, the big transformers are a big weakness, cost a lot, aren't exactly churned out.  My dad's company makes these, they must be loving this

[kanisatha]

6 hours ago, BruceVC said:

I dont see much of a  change with the likely GOP control of Congress, just more oversight on aid but it wont stop. 70%  or so of the US still support Ukraine. And this also because of Putin's propaganda because he turned this into a " this is war really about the US\West and Ukraine are just puppets "  when its about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the US\NATO  is not involved directly in the fighting. They provide resources and aid, thats not the same as saying " the US is at war with Russia " 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-four-americans-say-us-should-support-ukraine-despite-russian-threats-2022-10-05/

Yes exactly. It's just simply not true to declare that there is pro-Russia Republican sentiment. Historically, it is Democrats who've been USSR/Russia-apologists, and Republicans have been anti-Russia. And even now, for every R who is publicly pro-Russia (yes of course there are some), I can easily point to prominent D's who are also pro-Russia, especially among certain left-wing academics.

The R sentiment in Congress is, and has always been, that Biden's spending on supporting the war needs better oversight. And I would argue that sentiment is more about R's being against increased govt spending in general, and also being untrusting of giving *Biden* blank checks, rather than about anything to do with Ukraine specifically. And furthermore, key R leaders in both houses of Congress have already declared they will maintain financial support for Ukraine.

[Lexx]

30 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

It's just simply not true to declare that there is pro-Russia Republican sentiment

I dunno man.

Or how about this recently: https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/marjorie-taylor-greene-gop-wont-give-ukraine-another-penny-rcna55649

Edited November 6, 2022 by Lexx

[xzar_monty]

This is quite incredible: "Former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Security Minister and current DNR military commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed on November 5 that Russian friendly fire may have caused up to 60% of total Russian losses since the end of Russian offensive operations in Mariupol in mid-May."

I honestly don't believe the numbers are that high. They can't be.

Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-5

 

[Zoraptor]

7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I don't know. But judging by the fact that Russian officials accuse Ukraine of a HIMARS strike against the dam in Kakhovka, Russians are about to destroy it.

Sigh.

Ukraine has been hitting the dam for literally months, absolutely confirmed and mentioned here multiple times whenever there has been a "Russian forces in Kherson cut off!" type post. It's just that when they hit it it's always described as the Nova Kharkovka Bridge. For some reason.

To quote wikipedia, since it can hardly be accused of being pro Russian "The P47 road and a railway cross the Dnieper River on the dam." (emphasis added). This is very easily confirmed by an image search.

A suitably jaded and cynical mind might suggest that all the talk of Russians blowing the dam is cover for the fact it has been constantly attacked by Ukraine and the expectation is that that has caused significant structural damage.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Zoraptor

[bugarup]

Whichever side breaches the dam, it's still russians who are reportedly stealing ambulance vehicles, boats (and sinking ones that they don't steal) etc. from Kherson and settlements around the dam. Cause you know, those civilians ain't gonna kill themselves if the dam does go kablooey.

[Malcador]

9 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I don't know. But judging by the fact that Russian officials accuse Ukraine of a HIMARS strike against the dam in Kakhovka, Russians are about to destroy it.

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/871207

https://t.me/rian_ru/184552

"Accuse your enemy of that which you are doing yourself" -- an old KGB adage.

Don't think it's to Russia's advantage to destroy it

[Zoraptor]

It isn't, as someone (Mamoulian War I think) pointed out previously the low ground is actually on the east bank, not the west. It might temporarily make the river harder to cross but it will make it far harder to defend when the water clears because any prepared positions will have been washed away.

[Mamoulian War]

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Sigh.

Ukraine has been hitting the dam for literally months, absolutely confirmed and mentioned here multiple times whenever there has been a "Russian forces in Kherson cut off!" type post. It's just that when they hit it it's always described as the Nova Kharkovka Bridge. For some reason.

To quote wikipedia, since it can hardly be accused of being pro Russian "The P47 road and a railway cross the Dnieper River on the dam." (emphasis added). This is very easily confirmed by an image search.

A suitably jaded and cynical mind might suggest that all the talk of Russians blowing the dam is cover for the fact it has been constantly attacked by Ukraine and the expectation is that that has caused significant structural damage.

You are wrong, they did not hit the dam a single time. They hit the bridging of small water outlet area at the right bank of Dnepr River  

here you have the exact area, where all the HIMARS are landing…

The fact is the Russia is last mont stealing, firefighting vehicles, ambulances, buses, and are sinking all of the boat in Kherson…

Why do you think, they are doing it, if not as a preparation, for them flooding the area? 

Edited November 6, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

This is quite incredible: "Former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Security Minister and current DNR military commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed on November 5 that Russian friendly fire may have caused up to 60% of total Russian losses since the end of Russian offensive operations in Mariupol in mid-May."

I honestly don't believe the numbers are that high. They can't be.

Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-5

 

Well to me, it also seemed as an overstatement, but yesterday started to circulate letter send to Russian MoD, from Marines who were obliterated at Pavlika, south of Vuhledar front. After reading the translations, it seems to me, that the 60% might indeed be correct, as we have another confirmation, that Russian commanders on the Doneck front, are just a bunch of clowns, which are destroying their own army, with insanely stupid orders…

 

 

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

You are wrong, they did not hit the dam a single time. They hit the bridging of small water outlet area at the right bank of Dnepr River

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3549443-ukrainian-forces-struck-bridge-over-dam-in-nova-kakhovka.html  ? Their source is Ukrainian Operation Command South.

Your source is using old satellite imagery, you can tell because of the lack of secondary crossings per below. Indeed, there's a notable lack of up to date imagery showing the dam bridge itself.

The small water outlet is the lock (well, presumably. Used for getting ships past the dam; shut the gates and pump water in/ out to change the level to that up/ down stream). There are two issues with hitting that. Firstly it's very narrow, certainly in comparison to the Dniepr proper. Indeed, more up to date imagery shows the Russians had bridged it at least twice. Secondly there's no river current and no up/ down stream traffic. As a permanent solution the Russians simply filled it in to make a crossing (apparently sometime in September?), so it isn't a bridge any more. Only way to get rid of that is something far more explosive than HiMARS rockets, or to hit the lock gates to generate a, uh, current (which would be functionally identical to hitting the dam proper).

Edited November 7, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

It's always funny how Ukraine can literally do no wrong.

[BruceVC]

22 minutes ago, Malcador said:

It's always funny how Ukraine can literally do no wrong.

No one is saying that but when it comes to things like blowing up nuclear plants, creating dirty bombs and blowing up dams its not convincing and it doesnt make sense to the Ukrainian military strategy especially when they have the  advantage and Russia is pulling back 

Im just surprised that you still believe anything that comes from Russia?

[Malcador]

1 minute ago, BruceVC said:

Im just surprised that you still believe anything that comes from Russia?

News to me that I did.  Is just the amusing experience of the war and its marketing.

[CAIN]

I bet it amusing to all the people who have died on both sides.

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by CAIN

[Bartimaeus]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

News to me that I did.  Is just the amusing experience of the war and its marketing.

It's so weird how having even an ounce of empathy for your enemy while still wanting them to be defeated can get you lumped right in with them to at least a couple of posters in here.