Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[Sarex]

12 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:

That was part of the intent, but really, it's more just a general warning on these kinds of threads, whose subjects obviously hit very close to home for some, simply not being a great arena for civil meetings of the minds when feelings and allegiances differ in such an inherently irresolvable manner. Saying this would seem to make me the forum's biggest hypocrite, seeing as I am pretty infamous for being the god-emperor of putting people on ignore...but I'm O.K. with that, particularly given that my criteria for putting people on ignore is a little different in that it's usually just "do I consistently dislike reading posts by this person across the forum?".

Fear is a powerful thing, but if you understand that it's the driving force behind most of the attitudes here, apart from the usual suspects, then it's not so... let's say offensive.

8 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:

I've changed my mind.

You tease.

8 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/2/racist-federation-russias-minorities-complain-of-racism

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/20/russia-ukraine-war-casualties-deaths-putin-ethnic-minorities-racism/

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220517-young-poor-and-from-minorities-the-russian-troops-killed-in-ukraine

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/22/for-russias-exiled-ethnic-activists-ukraine-war-a-window-of-opportunity-a77714

You do understand that most of the diehard Putin followers are the people from the Russian countryside and that military is usually populated by people who are not well off financially.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Sarex

[Malcador]

11 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Codex isnt that bad, you can ignore the political debates and there lots of members who dont engage in politics and just discuss games

I've been there for long enough to know you wrote nonsense.

13 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/2/racist-federation-russias-minorities-complain-of-racism

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/20/russia-ukraine-war-casualties-deaths-putin-ethnic-minorities-racism/

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220517-young-poor-and-from-minorities-the-russian-troops-killed-in-ukraine

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/22/for-russias-exiled-ethnic-activists-ukraine-war-a-window-of-opportunity-a77714

Yeah, I'd read the stuff about casualties at the time, but even in many articles they just state it and that's it. As usual with most Russian stuff, seems very opaque from outside.  But for this kind of mobilization, the poor can go first and no one will care that much.

[Mamoulian War]

11 minutes ago, Sarex said:

You do understand that most of the diehard Putin followers are the people from the Russian countryside and that military is usually populated by people who are not well off financially.

That is true for ethnic Russians. for the minorities, the only reason they go to war, are money, not love for Putin... And that is the reason, why they are amongst the heaviest casualties.

The last article is about ethic minorities wanting to get out from under Russian colonial boot, also due to the fact, that they are treated the worst at home and at battlefield...

Edited September 21, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

@Sarex few examples, how Russia treats human rights of ethic minorities of Russia...

 

[Sarex]

They threat all their "activists" like that.

[BruceVC]

7 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I've been there for long enough to know you wrote nonsense.

Yeah, I'd read the stuff about casualties at the time, but even in many articles they just state it and that's it. As usual with most Russian stuff, seems very opaque from outside.  But for this kind of mobilization, the poor can go first and no one will care that much.

Yes I know you  " active "  on Codex, you have mentioned it several times. So then you should know there are lots of people who dont discuss politics

And I dont know what you mean by nonsense, what did I say that is nonsense?

[Malcador]

13 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Yes I know you  " active "  on Codex, you have mentioned it several times. So then you should know there are lots of people who dont discuss politics

Didn't say I was active. But okay, the culture war bull**** pervades many threads it should not, but anyway, Putin will denazify the Codex after Ukraine hopefully.

 

[BruceVC]

9 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Didn't say I was active. But okay, the culture war bull**** pervades many threads it should not, but anyway, Putin will denazify the Codex after Ukraine hopefully.

 

The issue I have is you  are generalizing. Yes I can think of maybe 8-10 people of Codex who claim to sympathize or support Nazi ideology and I would argue most of them are attention seekers with maybe  50% of them being legitimate. And I know this because they call me a race traitor, liberal degenerate, not " white" and other terms they think matter to me or are going to offend me when I disagree with them on certain topics 

But as I mentioned before, I have had plenty of debates with people who just discuss games and other topics like TV  series or fantasy books. There are lots of people on Codex  who dislike SJWism and the woke movement but that doesnt make them racist

 

[Malcador]

Kofman's comments, fairly reasonable.  Wish he'd use Medium or something, though.

[Mamoulian War]

@Malcador

more on the topic of ethnicity of dead soldiers.

 

[BruceVC]

@Gorth Here is another video about the cost of living in Russia, its partly true and partly parody I think?

But she is a real hottie either way 

Edited September 21, 2022 by BruceVC

[kanisatha]

Called it.

Medvedev said in the Duma today that once the referendums are held and those territories become a part of Russia the strategic equation in the world will change because Russia will be defending Russian territory and Ukraine will be the invader. He also then added that Russia can use "all means available" to defend its own territory.

So Putin's last, desperate plan is:

Hold referenda in which 110% of the people vote to become part of Russia.

Pass laws annexing those territories.

Declare that Russia is now merely defending its own territory, and Ukraine is the invading aggressor.

Demand that Ukraine stop its invasion of Russia or else Russia will use nukes to stop the Ukrainians.

Count on the West not having the guts to follow through with its promise that Russia crossing the red line of using nukes would result in NATO being drawn into the war.

[BruceVC]

12 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Called it.

Medvedev said in the Duma today that once the referendums are held and those territories become a part of Russia the strategic equation in the world will change because Russia will be defending Russian territory and Ukraine will be the invader. He also then added that Russia can use "all means available" to defend its own territory.

So Putin's last, desperate plan is:

Hold referenda in which 110% of the people vote to become part of Russia.

Pass laws annexing those territories.

Declare that Russia is now merely defending its own territory, and Ukraine is the invading aggressor.

Demand that Ukraine stop its invasion of Russia or else Russia will use nukes to stop the Ukrainians.

Count on the West not having the guts to follow through with its promise that Russia crossing the red line of using nukes would result in NATO being drawn into the war.

Interesting assessment, I wonder if that will happen around Putin threatening to use nukes around the Donbas and defending its  territories or would Putin call for full mobilization which I think is more likely ?

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by BruceVC

[Malcador]

10 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Count on the West not having the guts to follow through with its promise that Russia crossing the red line of using nukes would result in NATO being drawn into the war.

What would NATO's aim be there - expulsion of Russian troops from Ukraine ? Or further to police the use of nuclear weapons.  Probably better if it's just a separate coalition I guess, don't have to bother with it being NATO's business that way.

[Chilloutman]

now the question is: Will Russia use nukes or not after obviously no-one going to back down just because those separatists announce they are now part of russia. Ukraine will not back down for sure and I doubt west will stop supplying them any time soon. Are they that deranged? I mean IF they drop nuke I am sure not even China will be backing them so to me it seems really far fetched

[Sarex]

I very much doubt they would use strategic nuclear weapons as there would be no point in those, apart from sending a message. Would they use tactical nuclear weapons? Who knows. If this mobilization doesn't produce results or if there is some escalation towards Russian territory maybe they will.

[Lexx]

If it were that easy, everyone would just announce "x is now my territory!" There would be no wars anymore, anyone could do that. I still don't believe russia would use nukes... guess we will find out soonish.

[pmp10]

At UN Biden response to Russian mobilization is making security council more 'inclusive'. 
The west just can't accept that their soft power has failed. 

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Interesting assessment, I wonder if that will happen around Putin threatening to use nukes around the Donbas and defending its  territories or would Putin call for full mobilization which I think is more likely ?

 

Full mobilisation is effectively today a reality. Even if it's called "partial". Because lets face it, their military infrastructure sucks and half their hardware is repossessed by Ukrainian farmers (minus the stuff at the bottom of The Black Sea)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985

"Mr Putin said the partial mobilisation was necessary to ensure Russian territorial integrity.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said it showed Mr Putin wanted to drown Ukraine in blood - including that of his own soldiers.

The announcement applies to 300,000 military reservists."

Edit: So, a quarter of a million more men to be sent to the front (if we deduct the expected 50000 deserters)

[HoonDing]

wth

Edited September 21, 2022 by HoonDing

[Gfted1]

Germany should just annex Moscow, its not like the Russian could stop them.

[Malcador]

22 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

At UN Biden response to Russian mobilization is making security council more 'inclusive'. 
The west just can't accept that their soft power has failed. 

Skeptical of his statement, "We have long supported and permanent seats for countries in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.” 

Also for a chuckle - “As we manage shifting geopolitical trends, the United States will conduct itself as a reasonable leader. We do not seek conflict, we do not seek a cold war. We do not ask any nation to choose between the United States or any other partner. But the United States will be unabashed and promoting our vision of a free, open, secure and prosperous world and what we have to offer communities of nations.”

As per Guardian feed, at least.

Watched the speech, impressed he mentioned only using the veto for critical issues.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Malcador

[Hurlshort]

35 minutes ago, Lexx said:

If it were that easy, everyone would just announce "x is now my territory!" There would be no wars anymore, anyone could do that. I still don't believe russia would use nukes... guess we will find out soonish.

It makes me nervous when you say that because I feel like all of us said Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine.

[BruceVC]

19 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

At UN Biden response to Russian mobilization is making security council more 'inclusive'. 
The west just can't accept that their soft power has failed. 

What do you mean when you say  " their soft power has failed " ...the UNSC has 2 members that arent part of the West  and they make their own decisions.  And the UN doesnt have control over any country in the world? Governments control countries, not the UN

 

[pmp10]

38 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

What do you mean when you say  " their soft power has failed " ...

I'll spare everyone another rant on making Russia a 'pariah state' or crushing its economy with 'unprecedented sanctions'.
Suffice to say that all that careful escalation management resulted in Russian mobilization. 

The sudden interest in security council makes me think that not a single thing has been learned.  

Edited September 21, 2022 by pmp10