Ukraine Conflict - Das Himmelfahrtskommando

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

Looks like another secret family got sanctioned. The attached twitter thread is also an interesting read:

I just love how these people are constantly crapping on our evil western ways, all the while they all have properties and secret families tied up over here. Every single one of them is a damn hypocrite.

I think it's going to be hilarious if enough wealthy people get sanctioned that it collapses the financial and real estate industry.

19 minutes ago, 213374U said:

I'm the last to complain when the rich get eaten. That being said, I wish we'd see a more frequent and uniform application of the law that allowed for that.

Given the influence rich ****s have on policy, you'd get more milage out of wishing for a camel to go through the eye of a needle.

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

 

It's not at all clear that Russians are the ones bleeding more.
We don't know the Ukrainian losses and red army is very artillery heavy.

I wouldn't bet on the land bridge part just yet.
He will soon control everything from Kherson to Mariupol and that is enough for a bridge and two more separatist republics.
It will all depend on how long can Russia grind it out.

I would not be sure about that, as things like this are starting to emerge more and more on Russian side And with the ships being taken down today ad Berdyansk, Ukraine did made a pretty big blow to Russian supply lines in South. Not to mention, that Ukraine is slowly getting Russians away from their positions between Mykolaiv and Kherson... And as I mentioned earlier, no more tahnks are being made in Russia, so they are bleeding already a lot...

 

[Chilloutman]

what? they run over their commander in tank? Hard to believe that

[Mamoulian War]

Not sure, how legit it is, but according to ISW, which I a reading once in a while, it might be very close to the reality. Look especially on the yellow color in the south, which are areas retaken by Ukrainian counteroffensive. I've seen also one more video allegedly from Ukrainian General Stuff, which has shown even more recaptured areas between Sumy and Chernihiv.

 

[Mamoulian War]

5 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

what? they run over their commander in tank? Hard to believe that

If someone incompetence is the main cause of 750 dead buddies of yours, it might break your nerves in a pretty unbelievable way

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

 

It's not at all clear that Russians are the ones bleeding more.
We don't know the Ukrainian losses and red army is very artillery heavy.

 

There's also the question of what happens when the Ukrainian side starts getting reverses they can't paper over. It's all very well having glorious martyrs, so long as it's someone else.

Per yesterday, the Russian casualty figures are going through a massive inflationary phase because the Ukrainians said they had ~15k troops in Mariupol. As soon as that battle is over the Ukrainian casualties overtakes the Russian ones, and they can't have that.

[why did the forum software randomly post just the reply part of this? I blame Russian bots]

Edited March 24, 2022 by Zoraptor

[213374U]

So Zelensky to preside over the Red Square May Day parade, then?

[Malcador]

Remarkable I still see people saying the rest of Europe's next after this. 

 

[kanisatha]

On the question of what comes next, most experts are predicting a long stalemate and war of attrition. And contrary to conventional wisdom it is the Ukrainians and not the Russians who would be able to better sustain this, at least militarily, so not including the horrendous costs to Ukrainian civilians. The Russians won't have their land bridge, and won't even have the two separatist provinces, because in those areas the Russian-speaking civilian population is not/no longer sympathetic to the Russians. Even those people that Putin believes are "his" people are now fighting against him. So Russian forces in these areas, along with their separatist militia allies, will be bled continuously by an active insurgency as well as hit-and-run tactics by regular Ukrainian military. And as those casualties mount, more and more Russian soldiers will surrender or defect, or simply stop fighting.

Beyond the battlefield, though, the real action will be back in Moscow in the next few weeks. Yes, the Russian people have very little capacity for staging a revolution. But one never knows. As Putin more and more scapegoats the military and intelligence establishments for what are his personal failures, those establishments will look for ways to hit back, not because they care about democracy or decency in Ukraine but rather because they care about their own skins. After all, the last time revolution happened in Moscow, it was directly triggered by massive battlefield losses in a stupid war started by an ego-maniac leader who ignored his own advisors.

[ComradeYellow]

Azov suffered its biggest losses today to date and no longer exists as a cohesive unit. Announcement from Mariupol any minute. Head of the DPR Denis Pushilin and State Duma deputies Turchak and Sablin are already there. Happy tears.

 

[Malcador]

Interesting thumbnail there.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

There's also the question of what happens when the Ukrainian side starts getting reverses they can't paper over. It's all very well having glorious martyrs, so long as it's someone else.

Per yesterday, the Russian casualty figures are going through a massive inflationary phase because the Ukrainians said they had ~15k troops in Mariupol. As soon as that battle is over the Ukrainian casualties overtakes the Russian ones, and they can't have that.

[why did the forum software randomly post just the reply part of this? I blame Russian bots]

The losses of Russians even by the estimates of US intelligence are around 10000.

[Zoraptor]

US Intelligence is not exactly a disinterested party. Their last estimate for Ukrainian losses is also now 2+ weeks ago, I believe.

And jesus h christ twitterati, please look up thermite some time. If I see one more "omg teh white fosforuss!!!1!! it's a war crime!!!" post from some numpty proclaiming expertise I'll sigh and get on with my life. Worst thing is it's all recursive; they use the proof of WP being used in Syria- that was thermite too- to 'prove' that it's being used in Ukraine. Per the Israeli use in Gaza it's really, really obvious when WP is used on civilians as it has really, really characteristic burns.

Just don't look them up in an image search unless you're really, really prepared for some unpleasantness.

48 minutes ago, ComradeYellow said:

Azov suffered its biggest losses today to date and no longer exists as a cohesive unit. Announcement from Mariupol any minute. Head of the DPR Denis Pushilin and State Duma deputies Turchak and Sablin are already there. Happy tears.

Eh, believe it when you see it, and not before.

[213374U]

2 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

what? they run over their commander in tank? Hard to believe that

It shouldn't be in a context of morale and discipline breakdown. Look up fragging.

Of course, it might have been an accident as well, or any number of things.

[Gorth]

Based on absolutely no hard, available facts, just a “feeling”, but if all of Londons valuable real estate is either owned by the Windsor family or Russian oligarchs, QE II might soon be the single largest land owner in the city (minus bits and pieces owned by the Saud family and other oil billionaires)

[ComradeYellow]

Yep.  Whatever outcome of the war, the damage is already done.  Gonna be Weimar levels of hyperinflation soon, judging by the Fed's prior actions in such circumstances.  Not even sure if $20/h is gonna be enough to survive at this rate...

[Katphood]

9 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

Azov suffered its biggest losses today to date and no longer exists as a cohesive unit. Announcement from Mariupol any minute. Head of the DPR Denis Pushilin and State Duma deputies Turchak and Sablin are already there. Happy tears.

 

Man, Russia is a weird country. I didn't knew they celebrate their comrades death.

 

Edit: on topic of inflation, someday I am going to see European immigrants in front of my door here in Iran and it's going to make me laugh really hard...

Edited March 25, 2022 by Katphood

[Mamoulian War]

17 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

what? they run over their commander in tank? Hard to believe that

 

14 hours ago, 213374U said:

It shouldn't be in a context of morale and discipline breakdown. Look up fragging.

Of course, it might have been an accident as well, or any number of things.

Reportedly this  incident has been confirmed by Kadyrovs.

 

[Mamoulian War]

15 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

US Intelligence is not exactly a disinterested party. Their last estimate for Ukrainian losses is also now 2+ weeks ago, I believe.

And jesus h christ twitterati, please look up thermite some time. If I see one more "omg teh white fosforuss!!!1!! it's a war crime!!!" post from some numpty proclaiming expertise I'll sigh and get on with my life. Worst thing is it's all recursive; they use the proof of WP being used in Syria- that was thermite too- to 'prove' that it's being used in Ukraine. Per the Israeli use in Gaza it's really, really obvious when WP is used on civilians as it has really, really characteristic burns.

Just don't look them up in an image search unless you're really, really prepared for some unpleasantness.

Eh, believe it when you see it, and not before.

Latest report by US should be few days old, and yes, I know that they are not independent party, but compared to Ukrainian estimate of 15000, and Russian estimate of 498, their number seems to me the most plausible.

Also the latest numbers from Ukraine are now out. And Their soldier casualties are probably underestimated as well, but we will probably never know by how much
 

and comparison of Russian casualties by Ukraine sources. (which are as you say probably inflated by some %)

 

Also in other news, looks like Russian army NW of Kyiv will have very hard time in the next days/week. Belarusian saboteurs did a tremendous job of cutting of their possibilities of resupplying the troops. (google translate of local news)

https://tvnoviny-sk.translate.goog/zahranicne/clanok/152533-bieloruske-sabotaze?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Latest report by US should be few days old, and yes, I know that they are not independent party, but compared to Ukrainian estimate of 15000, and Russian estimate of 498, their number seems to me the most plausible.

Also the latest numbers from Ukraine are now out. And Their soldier casualties are probably underestimated as well, but we will probably never know by how much
 

and comparison of Russian casualties by Ukraine sources. (which are as you say probably inflated by some %)

 

 

That "at least" is doing a lot of work here. Admittedly I'm nowhere near the armchair general some of the other posters are, but it feels like a lot of this stuff is giving false hope to Ukrainians in regards to resisting the invasion. I don't doubt that the invasion isn't going as smoothly as projected for Russia (by Russia), arguably very badly, but Ukrainians are still in a dire situation that could very well get much worse and I'm not sure if downplaying losses or inflating victories is helpful in regards to analyzing the situation that they're in.

[Mamoulian War]

48 minutes ago, KP wants Blue Velvet said:

That "at least" is doing a lot of work here. Admittedly I'm nowhere near the armchair general some of the other posters are, but it feels like a lot of this stuff is giving false hope to Ukrainians in regards to resisting the invasion. I don't doubt that the invasion isn't going as smoothly as projected for Russia (by Russia), arguably very badly, but Ukrainians are still in a dire situation that could very well get much worse and I'm not sure if downplaying losses or inflating victories is helpful in regards to analyzing the situation that they're in.

Reading this official statement of Russian Ministry of Defense, it looks like, that inflating Ukrainian victories is underestimating the real status of the war.

Allow me to translate it from Russian false speak to proper English.

"We ****ed up so much in the north and north east Ukraine, that we decided to retreat to the Donbass region, hoping, we will mange at least one small victory, so we can run away from Ukraine as we did from Afghanistan, while declaring it as a decisive victory."

[Mamoulian War]

Also in other news, the energy exit plan for Putin is slowly starting to crumble. Chinese state-run companies are starting to suspend from future business in petrochemical and gas ventures in Russia. Looks like China really did some proper math, and probably even them start to feel very uncomfortable on the thoughts of being in any way connected to Russian childkillers.

 

[Malcador]

 

Guess they'll have to make a decision to withdraw soon. 

 

[Totally not Gorgon]

On 3/22/2022 at 7:36 PM, ComradeYellow said:

https://www.newsweek.com/putins-bombers-could-devastate-ukraine-hes-holding-back-heres-why-1690494

What's actually going on with the special operation in Ukraine.  This whole time the U.S. has been projecting its air obliterator strategy it uses on brown countries but the facts show that the Russians are being very careful with their attacks.

Probably a bit to early to reveal truth bombs like this on Newsweek so I'm afraid the authors career might be in jeopardy.

@Mamoulian War is of course very wrong in Russians as a whole turning on Putin, as he maintains a 70% support which has been the mean consistency throughout his tenure.  Maryana Naumova chimes in here in response to Arnold's crap response to the operation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saSAP0UUnyU

I don't understand what the victory condition is for Russia, I mean they could take Kyev and remove the government. And then what  ?. Another Ukrainian revolution in either months or years. Millions of willing resistance fighters. Millions of displaced refugees with nothing but hatred for Russia. The Ukrainians are simply done being told what to do. That's the main miscalculation.

So far the Russian invasion has achieved nothing much that will be of value on the negotiation table. Best case scenario, Russia started this slaughter for the win of some small amount of territory and probably permanently terrible relations with Ukraine and the west. There is just no way it was worth it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Darkpriest]

They will scale back and focus on south east and south. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/here-are-all-latest-news-and-developments-ukraine-war-march-25

For me, the whole thing should have been only about this fromnthe get go, if the dreamed  of any success