Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

[Elerond]

3 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

That's why you have a negotiation table. You see the opening hand, now you have to work out the deals for give and take... and land somewhere in the middle with some parts and capitulate on the others. 

I fear that Russian offer doesn't have room for negotiations, but if Ukraine refuses they increase amount they bomb civilian targets until Ukraine submits to their demands, as  Russia knows that no one is coming to help Ukraine. 

[BruceVC]

11 minutes ago, 213374U said:

"Us people in the US"? My guy, I'm Spanish. My country has been a net receiver of EU funds since forever, and we still came off worse.

And no, post-Soviet Russia showed very little interest in taking territories unlike the Russian empire of yore, until that stupid mother****er Clinton decided it would be a great idea to expand NATO eastward. Would Eastern Europe be a Russian sphere of influence? No doubt about it. Being a German-American sphere of influence isn't much better -- you not only are a serf, there's also a whiff of self-righteousness about the whole thing.

But Putin doesnt get to decide for the people of Eastern Europe, Ukraine had a Democratic election in 2019 and Zelensky won overwhelmingly and he ran on  a pro-EU ticket. People like you seem to think the majority of peoples political wishes dont count and you just repeating the standard anti-Western and Russian apologist rhetoric 

[Darkpriest]

4 minutes ago, Elerond said:

I fear that Russian offer doesn't have room for negotiations, but if Ukraine refuses they increase amount they bomb civilian targets until Ukraine submits to their demands, as  Russia knows that no one is coming to help Ukraine. 

Hopefully, you are mistaken and Russians are open to some concessions from their initial offer.

[Mamoulian War]

Well, if it is true, that Russia allocated 95% of their army to Ukraine conflict, there is a pretty high probability, that with more Russian casualties, there will start some insurgencies at smaller Russian States, you never know... Or it's just maybe my wishful thinking... For a start the real Chechens, not the Kadyrov bootlickers might probably start something which might sparkle something bigger...

 

EDIT: Answering to @Elerond

Edited March 7, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

1 minute ago, Darkpriest said:

Hopefully, you are mistaken and Russians are open to some concessions from their initial offer.

From what my family were telling me for the decades, the Soviet negotiations were always of the kind, where someone was holding his gun to your face, until you signed their initial proposal Putin's predecessors were used for decades to only demand under the threat of violence and fearmongering... And Putin as am KGB agents were conditioned in the same way of thinking...

[pmp10]

3 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Hopefully, you are mistaken and Russians are open to some concessions from their initial offer.

Something might be happening on that front as there will be opportunity to talk in Turkey.
In time it might turn into actual negotiations, the discussions on the Belarusian border are unlikely to result in more than local cease-fires. 

[Mamoulian War]

@Darkpriest also if the intel about Shoygu is real... Well, now that he has a big target painted on his face, he could make some moves, even if it was the case, that he never planned anything in the first place...

[Chilloutman]

28 minutes ago, 213374U said:

"Us people in the US"? My guy, I'm Spanish. My country has been a net receiver of EU funds since forever, and we still came off worse.

And no, post-Soviet Russia showed very little interest in taking territories unlike the Russian empire of yore, until that stupid mother****er Clinton decided it would be a great idea to expand NATO eastward. Would Eastern Europe be a Russian sphere of influence? No doubt about it. Being a German-American sphere of influence isn't much better -- you not only are a serf, there's also a whiff of self-righteousness about the whole thing.

lol, don't speak about things you don't understand. While I am not lover of EU being under EU influences is MILES better than being anywhere near russian influence ring. And lets be frank, if you are not superpower with nukes you are basically always someone else serf. And from options around the world US is by far the better option

[Sarex]

2 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

lol, don't speak about things you don't understand. While I am not lover of EU being under EU influences is MILES better than being anywhere near russian influence ring. And lets be frank, if you are not superpower with nukes you are basically always someone else serf. And from options around the world US is by far the better option

Yeah ask anyone south of them how much better it is... For ****s sake, even Puerto Rico is in a ****ty situation.

[Pidesco]

It's all relative. Just because things are better in the EU than in Russia, it does not mean the situation is not in need of some deep changes in the EU. I mean, I moved to Sweden from Portugal, because the issues with Portugal were big enough that I felt it wasn't worth it to stay. But on the other hand a bunch of Brazilians have recently fled to Portugal in search of something better, partly because of Bolsonaro, and the fact that I left Portugal does not mean that the Brazilians who moved to Portugal were wrong or unwise.

Too often the choices we are faced with are several ****ty ones, and we have to make do with whatever is less bad. Even if the less bad is a bunch of easily hate-able klepto/technocrats.

[Malcador]

26 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Well, if it is true, that Russia allocated 95% of their army to Ukraine conflict, there is a pretty high probability, that with more Russian casualties, there will start some insurgencies at smaller Russian States, you never know... Or it's just maybe my wishful thinking... For a start the real Chechens, not the Kadyrov bootlickers might probably start something which might sparkle something bigger...

 

EDIT: Answering to @Elerond

95% of the forces they positioned, not 95% of the entire Russian army. 

[Mamoulian War]

 

19 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Yeah ask anyone south of them how much better it is... For ****s sake, even Puerto Rico is in a ****ty situation.

Point taken, but still better option than Russia's influence...

Another point is also, that USA had over the years losing it's influence over the EU and I considered this as a good thing. A lot of people preferred EU only defense instead of NATO, but because of this ****ing situation, even political parties in my country led by russofiles, which were organizing protests in january against the newest deal between Slovakia and NATO, are now praising our NATO membership... Putin might win over the Ukraine, but power of NATO has been boosted more than ever, especially in the East, and then look at Sweden and Finland, which were always maintaining absolute neutrality...

Edited March 7, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

LOL

If this is true, then the Russian commander of army at Kherson will not have a very happy and long life... Looks like Russians landed 30 helicopters at the captured airfield, and overnight Ukrainian Army destroyed all of them... I am starting to be really sorry for the Russian soldiers, based on how much incompetence is there in the corrupted ranks of their commanders...

https://t.me/a_shtirlitz/16331

Telegram link, I tried it to translate with my very bad russian, so if there is someone else better at Ukrainian or Russian language, please correct me...

[Mamoulian War]

Also allegedly evacuation route from Mariupol offered to civilians by was set by landmines...

 

EDIT: Source of the article does not explicitly said, that the route offered on Sunday was actually offered by Russians. Still it was mined...

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60635927?Evacuation route out of Mariupol was mined, Red Cross says&2022-03-07T08:47:05.732Z&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:db771701-6dc4-4ec6-80c5-bf4be97ab054&pinned_post_asset_id=6225c463980bea49f4b7b73c&pinned_post_type=share

Edited March 7, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Darkpriest]

Interesting if true

 

[Darkpriest]

Also, this

 

[kanisatha]

Did I not say here that Shoigu may rebel against Putin?

And now, if Putin is trying to scapegoat him, he has that much more reason to try a coup. He has nothing to lose. He's dead whether he doesn't do anything or he tries a coup and loses.

[213374U]

1 hour ago, Chilloutman said:

And from options around the world US is by far the better option

Mhm. How's that working out south of the Texas border?

I'm sorry man, I get it. There's some really bad blood between East Europe peoples and Russia. Ain't gonna sell me on the idea that bending over for chicken**** bureaucrats in Brussels -and the special interests that control them- is a desirable choice, though.

I find it really funny that you guys can defend Ukraine's right to break free from Russian influence, while advancing the idea that Europe must bow to American imperialism, all in the same breath. Holy doublethink, Batman!

[kanisatha]

The "deal" being offered by Russia is a horrible deal, one Ukraine should never accept. But, if it is indeed just Russia's opening bid, and Russia is open to meaningful negotiations in which they are willing to give Ukraine certain things, then diplomacy has a chance. But we all know that Putin only operates on the basis of take-it-or-leave-it dictates, so I am skeptical anything will come of this. I do hope I am wrong.

[Darkpriest]

This is one of the reasons why politicians should be careful with using economic nukes. The complexity of finance world is going to bite back some in the ass

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/coal-titan-peabody-hit-margin-calls

[kanisatha]

32 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Also allegedly evacuation route from Mariupol offered to civilians by was set by landmines...

 

EDIT: Source of the article does not explicitly said, that the route offered on Sunday was actually offered by Russians. Still it was mined...

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60635927?Evacuation route out of Mariupol was mined, Red Cross says&2022-03-07T08:47:05.732Z&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:db771701-6dc4-4ec6-80c5-bf4be97ab054&pinned_post_asset_id=6225c463980bea49f4b7b73c&pinned_post_type=share

I have a theory about this. I do not believe the Russians are serious about allowing civilians to leave eastern Ukraine because, for all the nonsense-talk from them, the real reason they want eastern Ukraine is to take control of that population for Russia. The single biggest threat to Russia's future power is domestic demographics. Their population is in steep decline and has been for over 20 years. They desperately need people. But of course given their ultra-nationalism, they only want ethnic Russians. This war is less about a land-grab and much more about a population-grab. So they cannot afford to allow people in eastern Ukraine to leave. And let's be honest. The people fleeing the Russians are not just Ukrainians. Plenty of very credible reports that the ethnic Russians in these areas (Kherson for example) are openly siding with Ukraine and stating very categorically they do not want to live under Putin's rule.

Edited March 7, 2022 by kanisatha

[Chilloutman]

14 minutes ago, 213374U said:

Mhm. How's that working out south of the Texas border?

I'm sorry man, I get it. There's some really bad blood between East Europe peoples and Russia. Ain't gonna sell me on the idea that bending over for chicken**** bureaucrats in Brussels -and the special interests that control them- is a desirable choice, though.

I find it really funny that you guys can defend Ukraine's right to break free from Russian influence, while advancing the idea that Europe must bow to American imperialism, all in the same breath. Holy doublethink, Batman!

Hah, still people from south are flooding into USA. Can't tell the same about people under Russian influence which by far are trying to get out of there as soon as situation allows it

[BruceVC]

6 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Hah, still people from south are flooding into USA. Can't tell the same about people under Russian influence which by far are trying to get out of there as soon as situation allows it

When given a choice the majority of former Soviet states have joined the EU and many  want to join  NATO

In fact is their any example of a former Soviet state that is a Democracy not  wanting to join the EU? And countries like Belarus dont count because its an autocratic state 

Edited March 7, 2022 by BruceVC

[BruceVC]

23 minutes ago, 213374U said:

Mhm. How's that working out south of the Texas border?

I'm sorry man, I get it. There's some really bad blood between East Europe peoples and Russia. Ain't gonna sell me on the idea that bending over for chicken**** bureaucrats in Brussels -and the special interests that control them- is a desirable choice, though.

I find it really funny that you guys can defend Ukraine's right to break free from Russian influence, while advancing the idea that Europe must bow to American imperialism, all in the same breath. Holy doublethink, Batman!

You must be one of the few people in this world that honestly would suggest that life in the EU is not obviously better than life in Russia or life under Putin

What  next, is China a free society 

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

The no arms deal for Ukraine while Putler in charge would also mean he would eat Ukraine in 10 years without any resistance. So I do understand, that many Ukrainians would prefer to die, than to be under the reigns of Putler later...

I think the 1991 border drawing showed how bad an idea it is to chew off a large chunk of people who are not "compatible", rather than agreeing that maybe it would be best for now if Russians lived in Russia and Ukrainians in Ukraine?

I.e. you're never going to have peace and growth as long as you have a large minority that is being subjugated... as the Ukrainians found out the hard way at the moment.