Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

[Chilloutman]

Well I think there are only 2 real endings to this. Either Putin wins and create new puppet government in Ukraine or someone is going to get rid of him inside Russia. I don't see any other option

[Elerond]

5 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Well, does it become sustainable long term? Base energy costs are already extremly high, what would be the cost pressure on the society? 

Sure, producers might get it running at that price, but economy might not be able to withstand it, especially not the lower end of the income range within the societies. 

Yes, it becomes sustainable. Because end result is that there is more money in our economy.

Paying billions to other countries for energy isn't sustainable in long run but it is cheaper now, so people don't care

[Lexx]

Don't think I like the Ukraine to join the EU (just yet). Not sure how you people feel about it, but personally I'm not really in the mood for a full-on non-proxy war between NATO and russia.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Lexx

[Elerond]

6 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Yeah, this is what worries me a bit. If there is no real path to normalization, then Putin's game is hell or high water. 

 

Path to normalization has already been destroyed. There is reason why Cutting countries out from SWIFT is seen as economical nuclear bomb. After it is done there is now way to return to time when it wasn't done. Reconstruction can be done, but effects will last decades 

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Meanwhile Oil at 107 intraday, and if it will come anywhere close to 120 prior to any sanctions on Russian Oil, you will see a lot of pain on the Western economies. Energy and food inflation will push govs to settle with Russians or they will face unrest at home. 

You right, these are hard economic times but knowing that the Russian economy is being devastated by Putins War makes me feel much better

And you wrong, Western countries wont agree to anything Putin wants because he invaded Ukraine. He  created this reality and he needs to stop the war and then we can go  back to negotiations. Its like you think Russia has the economic strength here?

[majestic]

Just now, BruceVC said:

You right, these are hard economic times but knowing that the Russian economy is being devastated by Putins War makes me feel much better

And you wrong, Western countries wont agree to anything Putin wants because he invaded Ukraine. He  created this reality and he needs to stop the war and then we can go  back to negotiations. Its like you think Russia has the economic strength here?

It's not really a question of economic strength, but one of "Will Putin incinerate the world on his way out?" and the answer most certainly is far too close to "it's entirely possible" than I'd like it to be.

[BruceVC]

37 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Well I think there are only 2 real endings to this. Either Putin wins and create new puppet government in Ukraine or someone is going to get rid of him inside Russia. I don't see any other option

No their is option three and the most likely. Russia will defeat the vastly smaller Ukrainian army but the sanctions will continue to devastate the Russia  economy and they will be forced to negotiate 

But Putin doesnt "win " by setting up a puppet government, he just wins a  battle but he will lose the war 

[Darkpriest]

4 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

You right, these are hard economic times but knowing that the Russian economy is being devastated by Putins War makes me feel much better

And you wrong, Western countries wont agree to anything Putin wants because he invaded Ukraine. He  created this reality and he needs to stop the war and then we can go  back to negotiations. Its like you think Russia has the economic strength here?

Not directly, but the impact on the western economies, while they are still coping with already high inflation and supply chain disruptions. 

[HoonDing]

And throughout this posturing about Ukraine the west is still happily bombing people in Somalia, Libya, Mali and Yemen.

Edited March 1, 2022 by HoonDing

[BruceVC]

3 minutes ago, majestic said:

It's not really a question of economic strength, but one of "Will Putin incinerate the world on his way out?" and the answer most certainly is far too close to "it's entirely possible" than I'd like it to be.

Fair enough, if Putin is suicidal and unleashes nukes then the whole world loses including Russia. Putin is unhinged but not that unhinged 

[Raithe]

[Chilloutman]

2 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

No their is option three and the most likely. Russia will defeat the vastly smaller Ukrainian army but the sanctions will continue to devastate the Russia  economy and they will be forced to negotiate 

But Putin doesnt "win " by setting up a puppet government, he just wins a  battle but he will lose the war 

negotiate what? 

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, HoonDing said:

And throughout this posturing about Ukraine the west is still happily bombing people in Somalia, Libya, Mali and Yemen.

I am always so moved by your sensitivity and empathy, you inspire me hoonding...you really do 

[Amentep]

I've split of conversations from the old thread.  Please use the new thread.

 

Old thread:

 

[Chilloutman]

Just now, Amentep said:

Will be closing this thread shortly.

New thread:

 

 

Classic forum autocrats doing their dirty work again

[majestic]

1 minute ago, BruceVC said:

Fair enough, if Putin is suicidal and unleashes nukes then the whole world loses including Russia. Putin is unhinged but not that unhinged 

Heh, this is an argument that we've had in the past, only in reverse? I think all arguments that Putin is acting rationally went out of the window when the Russian troops actually crossed the border last week.

[kanisatha]

19 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

You right, these are hard economic times but knowing that the Russian economy is being devastated by Putins War makes me feel much better

And you wrong, Western countries wont agree to anything Putin wants because he invaded Ukraine. He  created this reality and he needs to stop the war and then we can go  back to negotiations. Its like you think Russia has the economic strength here?

This is what I was going to say as well. It is a foregone conclusion Russia will very likely eventually defeat the Ukrainians in concentional battle, take Kyiv, overthrow the government, and install their puppet government. But that is by no means the end of it. More than 100 countries in the world will still recognize the anti-Putin government (in exile) as the legitimate government, and the West will send in arms and supplies to fuel an ongoing insurgency. In fact, even if Kyiv falls, most of Ukrainian territory will likely remain out of Russian control. So taking Kyiv and overthrowing the government there, while very bitter for the Ukrainians, is far from a "win" for Russia.

[BruceVC]

51 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Path to normalization has already been destroyed. There is reason why Cutting countries out from SWIFT is seen as economical nuclear bomb. After it is done there is now way to return to time when it wasn't done. Reconstruction can be done, but effects will last decades 

Russia can reverse its impending economic collapse, it wont take decades. I would say a friendly Russia can get its economy back in 4-6 years 

Because some of the sanctions that have hurt it the hardest can literally be reversed overnight like the US sanctions on the $ on the Russian central bank. If  the US just  ends that then Russia can access most of its $650 Billion sovereign fund which is mostly in $

[Raithe]

From before the invasion...

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2021/11/17/inside-wagnergate-ukraines-brazen-sting-operation-to-snare-russian-mercenaries/

Quote

A year-long investigation by Bellingcat and the Insider has established that the operation which resulted in the capture of 33 mercenaries in Minsk in July 2020 was in fact an elaborate sting conducted by Ukraine’s military intelligence service GUR MOU with the support of the counterintelligence department of the domestic intelligence agency, the SBU. Through the false-flag recruitment of mercenaries for a now defunct private military contractor (PMC), the operation aimed to lure dozens of Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian citizens who, in the assessment of the Ukrainian authorities, had committed serious crimes while fighting for Russia-supported military entities in the country’s East.

Many, but not all of the targeted mercenaries, had fought in Ukraine’s Donbas region as part of the infamous Wagner private military contractor (PMC). Others fought as part of Russia-sponsored “volunteer corps” while others had been working directly for Russia’s military or security services. Most of the targeted men had at some point served as mercenaries for the Wagner group, whether in Ukraine or subsequently in Syria, Libya or the Central African Republic (CAR).

Edited March 1, 2022 by Raithe

[ComradeYellow]

People keep forgetting that there is an 'East' which is economy is quite stable and growing steadily and less dependent on Wall Street more and more by the day so it's not like Russia is going to starve to death over this long term.

Case in point:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10563533/US-Europe-paying-Kremlin-1BILLION-DAY-oil-gas.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

The Daily Fail's article here is ideologically biased but factually relevant.

[Gfted1]

US and allies agree to release 60 million barrels of oil from their reserves as Russian invasion of Ukraine causes price spike - CNNPolitics    

[BruceVC]

3 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

This is what I was going to say as well. It is a foregone conclusion Russia will very likely eventually defeat the Ukrainians in concentional battle, take Kyiv, overthrow the government, and install their puppet government. But that is by no means the end of it. More than 100 countries in the world will still recognize the anti-Putin government (in exile) as the legitimate government, and the West will send in arms and supplies to fuel an ongoing insurgency. In fact, even if Kyiv falls, most of Ukrainian territory will likely remain out of Russian control. So taking Kyiv and overthrowing the government there, while very bitter for the Ukrainians, is far from a "win" for Russia.

Absolutely,  the real impact from sanctions will be seen in the next 3-6 months and Russia will see no way out but to reverse Putins War...thats the only way to end the sanctions 

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, ComradeYellow said:

People keep forgetting that there is an 'East' which is economy is quite stable and growing steadily and less dependent on Wall Street more and more by the day so it's not like Russia is going to starve to death over this long term.

Case in point:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10563533/US-Europe-paying-Kremlin-1BILLION-DAY-oil-gas.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

The Daily Fail's article here is ideologically biased but factually relevant.

But Comrade remember the Russian economy is self-sufficient and can use  the Fish and Chips banking payment system and can trade in gold so we dont have to worry about the sanctions 

[HoonDing]

I'm sure the Ukranian people will agree with Natalia Poklonskaya as madam president.

She has the looks and the experience

[ComradeYellow]

Hey I'm not crazy about the invasion either (Putin's motives are 50% fishy),  I do like to see NATO and Nazi's destroyed and discredited, but Russia wouldn't do this if it didn't have some kind of guarantee from you know who

 

*Gulp*

And Nazi presence in Ukraine is worse  than I thought, bunch of savages that do need to be dealt with.

https://greekcitytimes.com/2022/03/01/greek-in-mariupol-fascist-ukrainian/