The All Things Political Topic - Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities

[pmp10]

So recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk by Duma is complete but the question of borders was largely dodged.
Most likely leaving themselves a bargain chip for negotiations.
Or another escalation excuse.

[BruceVC]

4 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

So recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk by Duma is complete but the question of borders was largely dodged.
Most likely leaving themselves a bargain chip for negotiations.
Or another escalation excuse.

I have to say your post a few days ago about Putin recognizing these regions as independent was correct 

Its hard to predict these things so nice one. Do you think he will invade Ukraine outside of this?

[Gorth]

3 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I have to say your post a few days ago about Putin recognizing these regions as independent was correct 

Its hard to predict these things so nice one. Do you think he will invade Ukraine outside of this?

It's infinitely harder to control a hostile, occupied population than a friendly population that welcomes you as "liberator". Doesn't mean it's impossible, just less likely. Biden probably guessed the same thing way back when he talked about degrees of punitive sanctions for "limited Russian invasion" vs. full scale invasion.

 

Edit: Which upset the government in Kiev a lot

[HoonDing]

Bring oby back.

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, Gorth said:

It's infinitely harder to control a hostile, occupied population than a friendly population that welcomes you as "liberator". Doesn't mean it's impossible, just less likely. Biden probably guessed the same thing way back when he talked about degrees of punitive sanctions for "limited Russian invasion" vs. full scale invasion.

 

Edit: Which upset the government in Kiev a lot

Yes, I agree and thats where I am going. Because their are different degrees of sanctions that the West can implement and some of them are so severe I dont think this recognition of these separatist states  would justify them but with  an invasion of Ukraine I would support severe sanctions 

And one of the tools the West can use is freezing Russia out the Swift financial payment system and this will have devastating consequences for the Russian economy but it will also hurt aspects of the global economy and anyone trading or invested with Russia. So these types of sanctions should only happen if Russia invades Ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWIFT

[Gorth]

16 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Yes, I agree and thats where I am going. Because their are different degrees of sanctions that the West can implement and some of them are so severe I dont think this recognition of these separatist states  would justify them but with  an invasion of Ukraine I would support severe sanctions 

And one of the tools the West can use is freezing Russia out the Swift financial payment system and this will have devastating consequences for the Russian economy but it will also hurt aspects of the global economy and anyone trading or invested with Russia. So these types of sanctions should only happen if Russia invades Ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWIFT

And here I thought the Belgians were only good at making Chocolate and Beer

Didn't know Belgium were the power behind the SWIFT system. But yeah, a collapse of the SWIFT system as a global thing could result in a loss of both money and trust in the system. So... better be nice to Belgium, or else!

When all is said and done, I think Ukraine still wants to buy a bit of LPG from Russia when winter sets in (not to mention skim a nice profit from transit fees and LPG that mysteriously disappears in large quantities in transit). I don't see Biden arranging an air/truck/train bridge like Berlin post WWII to supply them with gas in enough quantities to keep frostbite away in October (maybe Hunter Biden is more interested in the Ukrainian energy sector than his dad is). Sadly, still lamenting that aforementioned nationalism keeps getting in the way of practical solutions, like actually implementing the signed Minsk Accord (way too late for that now).

Putin is nothing if not logical. Like a computer. With all the compassion and empathy of a computer too. Like it or not, he has mostly been reactive rather than active. Sure, a bit of opportunism occasionally, like gaining influence with Shiite Muslims by intervening in Syria or organizing (badly) the odd hit on those guilty of high treason in his eyes.

[Darkpriest]

It seems China is hinting to US that theu side with Russia's PoV. 

 

 

“China is concerned about the evolving situation in Ukraine,” Wang said, reiterating that China’s stance on the matter had not changed and that “every country’s security concern should be respected”.

“The fact that the Ukraine crisis has evolved to this stage is related to the delayed implementation of the Minsk agreement,” Wang said

 

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, HoonDing said:

Bring oby back.

We would at least see some videos.

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Do you think he will invade Ukraine outside of this?

I don't see how he can archive his objectives without it.
He seems to have no patience for slow strangulation and other effective options are occupation or making Ukraine permanently unstable.

That is unless he flips on that 20-year long NATO membership suspension plan, but he shot that down hard yesterday.

[Elerond]

22 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

It seems China is hinting to US that theu side with Russia's PoV. 

 

 

“China is concerned about the evolving situation in Ukraine,” Wang said, reiterating that China’s stance on the matter had not changed and that “every country’s security concern should be respected”.

“The fact that the Ukraine crisis has evolved to this stage is related to the delayed implementation of the Minsk agreement,” Wang said

 

In past China has not ever supported letting areas get independence, because it goes against their policy in Taiwan and Tibet. So Russia will have hard time to convince China to give them official support 

[BruceVC]

17 minutes ago, Sarex said:

We would at least see some videos.

I miss Oby, he use to make me laugh but he was one of the very few people who use to be able to really  annoy me because he would post  these ridiculous  old school pictures  of " me " dressed like a colonial hunter wearing these outdated safari suits sitting under a tree  in the African bush with black people carrying all the luggage on their backs. Similar to Colonialism in David Livingstones era

Do you  remember Qistina ? I am sure she was an alt-account because she claimed to " like " me because I reminded her of her Scottish friend, yeah right like I believed that one 

[Gromnir]

so... are we still arguing whether western media and pundits engaged in dangerous fear mongering? were seeming moments ago the real danger weren't the scifi scenario o' a russian invasion but were rather the media and pundits as they did beat the drums o' war, yes? is fascinating to watch as more than a few have already seamless moved onto justification o' the previous not gonna happen invasion which were nothing but the fever dream o' biden supporters trying to distract from... inflation?

*shrug*

as to putin initiating a war o' liberation, is more difficult to name an invasion which weren't undertaken on the pretext o' liberation. is glaring ww2 examples which is no doubt gonna get widespread attention so is no need for us to illustrate and repeat. gauche. regardless am somehow doubtful most who do now hypocritical beat the drums o' war given their recent condemnation o' villainy in the west would similar support a US invasion o' kanada on behalf o' wexit or quebec independence. can you imagine if kanada had invaded the US in support o' the bundy standoff? tell us such examples is qualitative different is possible 'cause you believe it to be.

yeah, if there genuine were genocide taking place in ukraine aimed at cultural russians, we would likely support a russian invasion in spite o' fact am knowing the bloody cost. let's have the skeptics step forward with their evidence o' such... without indulging in whataboutism comparing to how nato or some other nation or power did just as bad in the past. 

whatever. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Lexx]

1 hour ago, Sarex said:

We would at least see some videos.

What happened anyways, did he get fired from the russian propaganda farm?

[BruceVC]

Putin is seriously hardcore, you dont want to mess with the Russian bear  

 

[Darkpriest]

31 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

so... are we still arguing whether western media and pundits engaged in dangerous fear mongering? were seeming moments ago the real danger weren't the scifi scenario o' a russian invasion but were rather the media and pundits as they did beat the drums o' war, yes? is fascinating to watch as more than a few have already seamless moved onto justification o' the previous not gonna happen invasion which were nothing but the fever dream o' biden supporters trying to distract from... inflation?

*shrug*

as to putin initiating a war o' liberation, is more difficult to name an invasion which weren't undertaken on the pretext o' liberation. is glaring ww2 examples which is no doubt gonna get widespread attention so is no need for us to illustrate and repeat. gauche. regardless am somehow doubtful most who do now hypocritical beat the drums o' war given their recent condemnation o' villainy in the west would similar support a US invasion o' kanada on behalf o' wexit or quebec independence. can you imagine if kanada had invaded the US in support o' the bundy standoff? tell us such examples is qualitative different is possible 'cause you believe it to be.

yeah, if there genuine were genocide taking place in ukraine aimed at cultural russians, we would likely support a russian invasion in spite o' fact am knowing the bloody cost. let's have the skeptics step forward with their evidence o' such... without indulging in whataboutism comparing to how nato or some other nation or power did just as bad in the past. 

whatever. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

The full scale invasion of Ukriane and full scale war is what was deemed and still is deemed science fiction. 

Securing Donbas was one of the real options mentioned as the only real value for Russia going into UA is to secure as mucch of a land connection to Crimea as possible although it was vieqed as more probable to be done mostly by implementig Minsk accord in full. 

 

What Russia technically did is go into area it already controlled. Yes, there is an outrage, yes it is using military ppwer for own gains, but it also is yes, it is a real security concern for Russia on the strategic map to be cut off from Black Sea and the base in Sevastopol, and it is also yes, this is predominantly Russian populace there (over 90% speaking Russian and 10% Ukrainian). 

Until I'll see Russians bombing Kiev I will keep saying that all this unnecessary level of panic was a smoke and mirrors and mostly to deflect from economic and political issues. Putin abuses the state of economies, especially of EU countries as they are significanlty weaker after the Corona. 

Heck, I'd even dare to put as probable that all this fearmongering and threats and arming Ukraine pushed Putin into the military solution as otherwise perhaps he would get some concessions in a purely diplomatic way (intimidating and strong arming though) 

 

[Hurlshort]

44 minutes ago, Lexx said:

What happened anyways, did he get fired from the russian propaganda farm?

I like to think he was promoted to a forum with more than a dozen members.

[Gromnir]

*chuckle*

revisionism already? reimagining as some kinda benign limited invasion which would somehow be unreasonable to result in fear in the west? how on earth would the NOW seeming anticipated and predictable prospect russian tanks rolling into donbras be nothing for western markets and media to concern itself with... particular coming from somebody who opined this bruhaha would all evaporate on sunday, this sunday already past, after the scheduled wargames would end?

...

again, "whatever." you folks is gonna rationalize and twist regardless o' reality. not worth further effort as you people has already exposed self... and we indulged in the terrible pun on purpose just to show how little we think o' such indefensible defense.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

What happened anyways, did he get fired from the russian propaganda farm?

Bruce hurt his feelings.

[Darkpriest]

2 hours ago, Elerond said:

In past China has not ever supported letting areas get independence, because it goes against their policy in Taiwan and Tibet. So Russia will have hard time to convince China to give them official support 

True, they will most likely not recognize them, but they will be pointing out that the situation was cause by an aggresive expansion of NATO and Ukraine not executing on Minsk accords earlier. (i think this will be the official line) 

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

What happened anyways, did he get fired from the russian propaganda farm?

He still walks among us.

[Darkpriest]

47 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

*chuckle*

revisionism already? reimagining as some kinda benign limited invasion which would somehow be unreasonable to result in fear in the west? how on earth would the NOW seeming anticipated and predictable prospect russian tanks rolling into donbras be nothing for western markets and media to concern itself with... particular coming from somebody who opined this bruhaha would all evaporate on sunday, this sunday already past, after the scheduled wargames would end?

...

again, "whatever." you folks is gonna rationalize and twist regardless o' reality. not worth further effort as you people has already exposed self... and we indulged in the terrible pun on purpose just to show how little we think o' such indefensible defense.

HA! Good Fun!

 

Well, to burst your view, markets apparently share my view, as what happened in all these theatrics, is essentially reinforcing already existing status quo...

Russia did not Invade Ukraine mainland, did not bomb cities, did not hunt down people, etc. It rolled in into an already controlled area and stopped.

Did I think it would happen? No, I thought Russians together with Germany and France would strongarm Ukraine to agree the autonomy with separatists. 

 

 

Sanctions are also basically what they were already. NordStream 2 not operating (FOR NOW as Sholtz underlined), UK putting ban on same people and institutions which I believe were already banned by Americans, so now we only wait what US will do (i do not count the sanctions preventing US companies in dealing with Donbas republiks as real sanctions) , while Ukraine cries for more severe sanctions. 

 

If Russia will attack Ukraine forces and shell Kiev, I will eat my hat and you will have a video of it... 

[Darkpriest]

Also, some opinion to give broader economic reliance and why no meanigful santions will happen, although a trigger warning the source is very anti-Biden and exaggerating slightly in the severity of an impact. 

"" "" "" "" "" 

What happens when the sanctions hit?? Ask yourself, where do palladium, nickel, natural gas, oil, uranium, grain, fertilizer and a bunch of other goods we depend upon come from?? Yeah, the guys that Biden wants to sanction. What do you think sanctions do to inflation? There’s an election coming up in November and it already looks like Biden gets steamrolled. Does he want to make it even worse?? Literally no one in Europe wants any part of this train-wreck that Biden started. They all need Putin’s energy far more than they need our politics

"" "" "" "" 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, Elerond said:

In past China has not ever supported letting areas get independence, because it goes against their policy in Taiwan and Tibet. So Russia will have hard time to convince China to give them official support 

Russia could sell it to China as the equivalent of China uniting all Chinese under the control of the CCP?

[Gorth]

17 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Also, some opinion to give broader economic reliance and why no meanigful santions will happen, although a trigger warning the source is very anti-Biden

"" "" "" "" "" 

What happens when the sanctions hit?? Ask yourself, where do palladium, nickel, natural gas, oil, uranium, grain, fertilizer and a bunch of other goods we depend upon come from?? Yeah, the guys that Biden wants to sanction. What do you think sanctions do to inflation? There’s an election coming up in November and it already looks like Biden gets steamrolled. Does he want to make it even worse?? Literally no one in Europe wants any part of this train-wreck that Biden started. They all need Putin’s energy far more than they need our politics

"" "" "" "" 

I feel sorry for Biden (seriously). It doesn't matter what he does, he's screwed. If he play hardball and the economy suffers as a result, he'll get slaughtered. If he doesn't, he'll hear no end of "weakest president evar!!!" and get slaughtered. It's a lose/lose situation.

 

Edit: He does, not he do.

[Darkpriest]

1 minute ago, Gorth said:

I feel sorry for Biden (seriously). It doesn't matter what he do, he's screwed. If he play hardball and the economy suffers as a result, he'll get slaughtered. If he doesn't, he'll hear no end of "weakest president evar!!!" and get slaughtered. It's a lose/lose situation.

 

Plus this... 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-22/western-leaders-sidestep-calling-putin-s-move-a-ukraine-invasion