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The All Things Political Topic - Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities


ShadySands

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Seems they don't enough men for regime change.

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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Bombing airfields is most definitely a direct assault on the armed forces. Not usually a high casualty direct assault like bombing barracks, but it's still a direct assault.

Whether Ukraine will fight is an open question. They've certainly talked a good game, however they did very poorly against a fraction of the force 8 years ago; and Georgia lost very badly in 2008. Ukraine is nothing like Afghanistan, terrain wise it's very flat steppe and plain; Ukraine also hasn't spent the past 40 years in a constant state of warfare. They aren't the Taleban or Muhajedin, and they aren't the Houthis.

Once the troop numbers got up to 180,000 the idea that it was all a bluff got increasingly unlikely. Claiming 'imminent invasion' when there was 100k troops was ridiculous, 180k is about the minimum required and the Russians now have a bit over that. They'll probably have more by the time they launch any all out invasion.

If they go for a land bridge it's right down to Transnistria, and Odessa is 90% of the way there. No point with anything less. Don't see how it could be just regime change. That would basically require getting to Kiev anyway, and a collapse of the Ukrainian military, and if you've got those the full land bridge part is trivial.

From the Russian perspective, they've got a lot of valid complaints but it's a dumb- and likely highly counterproductive- way to resolve them, even if they felt backed into a corner. Decent chance that they won't actually resolve them either, but make them worse. They'd also better hope that China isn't going to stab them in the back because politically Europe won't be able to buckle now even if it means they literally freeze next year- but they probably won't. Russia joining a US containment strategy of China was their worst nightmare, and that's gone now, permanently.

As for Ukraine: should have implemented Minsk. You might have grumbled, but in retrospect it'll be so much better than the alternative.

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10 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

From the Russian perspective, they've got a lot of valid complaints but it's a dumb- and likely highly counterproductive- way to resolve them, even if they felt backed into a corner. Decent chance that they won't actually resolve them either, but make them worse. They'd also better hope that China isn't going to stab them in the back because politically Europe won't be able to buckle now even if it means they literally freeze next year- but they probably won't. Russia joining a US containment strategy of China was their worst nightmare, and that's gone now, permanently.

They've tried every other way to resolve them for, uh, 8 years now and to no avail.  Neither Russia nor NATO was willing to budge on the issue of Russia's security interests.

While China is officially shocked at this it is highly unlikely that China will stab Russia in the back considering the Beijing Olympics speech they gave.  China is playing good cop here.  Yes though, U.S. had a chance to work with Russia to deter China but they blew it utterly with their Russiagate crap.  LOL

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1 hour ago, rjshae said:

So much for nothing will happen, it's all a bluff. Right. My sympathies for the people of the Ukraine.

Im waiting for @Zoraptor  latest handwaving, whataboutism  and " nothing to see here " or other Russian apologists to say things like " you cant trust the Western media " and or " everyone knows the US are the worlds warmongers, Russia would NEVER invade Ukraine " :grin:

But we should focus on what many of us have been  saying about this Ukraine illegal invasion. Sanctions are the only realistic option going forward but the most severest sanctions possible. Also Tucker Carlson's sycophantic support for Putin is not helping but most of the GOP is united in condemnation  

I have been engaging on Codex around this discussion and their plenty of Russia supporters on that discussion  and lots of anti-Russian sentiment but as usual people take extreme views. But their is a guy from Ukraine who I chatted and as you said I feel deep sympathy for the Ukrainian people 

We must  see how things unfold 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

 

As for Ukraine: should have implemented Minsk. You might have grumbled, but in retrospect it'll be so much better than the alternative.

And their we have it, the famous " lets blame someone else for what Russia is doing " ....thanks Zora for doing exactly what  is predictable :thumbsup:

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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Just now, ComradeYellow said:

They just blew up the AZOV (neo-nazi) battalions headquarters.  WTF more is there to say?  Russians killing is the sweetest thing on the planet.

Well, if true, that's one good thing.

1 minute ago, BruceVC said:

And their we have it, the famous " lets blame someone else for what Russia is doing " ....thanks Zora for doing exactly what  is predictable :thumbsup:

That really isn't what he wrote, though.

And apparently Belarussian troops are involved, then again the source is social media when I dig down to it. 

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Seems i might need to be going to find my monopoly guy top hat... DANGEROUSLY close to that. 

Russians entered southern Ukriane... 

I still think this is aimed to carve out a land bridge, but in the current scenario, all bets are off. Things can escalate super fast... 

 

Edit: an effin a-hole. I'd not think he had the actual lack of reason to do it in the current situation. 

He gave US what they wanted and became a person, who lost ALL credibility on the int. stage. 

And might cause a 3rd WW in the process.... 

Dark we all make mistakes, its okay. The important thing is to acknowledge it and not make these types of predictions going forward

Their wont be WW3 but their will be sanctions

But I am going to insist you eat your hat, make a video and post it :p

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well, if true, that's one good thing.

That really isn't what he wrote, though.

And apparently Belarussian troops are involved, then again the source is social media when I dig down to it. 

No of course he  didnt say that, he just said its Ukraine's fault for not implementing  Minsk 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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2 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Dark we all make mistakes, its okay. The important thing is to acknowledge it and not make these types of predictions going forward

Their wont be WW3 but their will be sanctions

But I am going to insist you eat your hat, make a video and post it :p

Not until I see Kiev burning, tha hat is too preciuos! 

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Seems like Odessa landings didn't happen, according to Reuters.

Ukraine claiming they shot down 5 Russian jets too, but no video or anything.

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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45 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Sanctions are the only realistic option going forward but the most severest sanctions possible.

Support options for the Ukraine include logistics, weaponry (physical and cyber), intelligence, communications, training, and private contractors. The West can choose to make this an unending and painful occupation for Putin, possibly leading to a change in government.

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"It has just been discovered that research causes cancer in rats."

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Who did that sh†tstain of a degenerate fuhrer with botox for brains addressed his rant at? Nobody sane in the world would buy it. There shouldn't be that many subjects of Mordor with brain completely consumed by propaganda, right? But then, what do I know, because here we are - Europe, quite ahead into twenty-first century, with a rabid animal at a helm of a nuclear state. 

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6 minutes ago, Chairchucker said:

Hmmm, guess I should've expected to see invasion apologists. Still disappointing.

Whelp, if this leads to radical socio-economic and positive change in U.S. policy, I will be the first to jump on that bandwagon.  U.S. politicians remain terrible and arrogant and condescending even to their own citizens.  CHANGE DAMMIT

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50 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Support options for the Ukraine include logistics, weaponry (physical and cyber), intelligence, communications, training, and private contractors. The West can choose to make this an unending and painful occupation for Putin, possibly leading to a change in government.

The impact from sanctions can take years and Russia has an impressive foreign reserve but yes the sanctions will have impact but its a long-term game

I dont see the Ukrainian military lasting very long and then the question will be will it be an occupation or something else ? My advice would  be to the  Ukrainian military is to let Russia control the country but resort to guerilla warfare like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation because I dont see the point of trying to take on  the Russian and Belarus forces directly ?

Edited by BruceVC

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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1 minute ago, ComradeYellow said:

Whelp, if this leads to radical socio-economic and positive change in U.S. policy, I will be the first to jump on that bandwagon.  U.S. politicians remain terrible and arrogant and condescending even to their own citizens.  CHANGE DAMMIT

@Chairchucker

Dont take the bait, he is trolling as usual 

I like Comrade but this is what he does when it comes to these types of geopolitical and ideological realities 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Im waiting for @Zoraptor  latest handwaving, whataboutism  and " nothing to see here " or other Russian apologists to say things like " you cant trust the Western media " and or " everyone knows the US are the worlds warmongers, Russia would NEVER invade Ukraine " :grin:

Of course Russia didn't want to invade the Ukraine, the West forced them into it. That's obvious, right? :thumbsup:

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No mind to think. No will to break. No voice to cry suffering.

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