The All Things Political Topic - Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities

[Guard Dog]

I comes down to this: no one is going to go to war over Ukraine. Sanctions are all well and good but when so much of Europe buys oil from Russia they won't last long enough to matter. 

To steal a great line from a bad movie there are only two courses of action in life, what we can do and what we can't. Stopping Russia from invading or kicking them out now that they have falls into the latter category. Unless you are willing to go to war over it. And that will likely mean nuclear weapons of it goes badly for Putin. 

[BruceVC]

17 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Also, some opinion to give broader economic reliance and why no meanigful santions will happen, although a trigger warning the source is very anti-Biden

"" "" "" "" "" 

What happens when the sanctions hit?? Ask yourself, where do palladium, nickel, natural gas, oil, uranium, grain, fertilizer and a bunch of other goods we depend upon come from?? Yeah, the guys that Biden wants to sanction. What do you think sanctions do to inflation? There’s an election coming up in November and it already looks like Biden gets steamrolled. Does he want to make it even worse?? Literally no one in Europe wants any part of this train-wreck that Biden started. They all need Putin’s energy far more than they need our politics

"" "" "" "" 

Nah, we will be fine with sanctions because their are different levels of sanctions. For example sanctions that would prohibit Russia from selling all those commodities would have to be enforced through the UNSC and that obviously wont happen because Russia and China would veto it 

And all those commodities can be bought in other countries, I doubt they can only found in Russia? For example Palladium is found in countries like the US and South Africa

So no need to worry about that  but I appreciate the concern. Sanctions are a very good idea and will be implemented. The only question being " what level of sanctions " 

[Hurlshort]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hate-crimes-case-arbery-killing-061807665.html

It seems pretty simple to me. They would not have gone after him if he was jogging while white. The jury agreed.

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

I comes down to this: no one is going to go to war over Ukraine. Sanctions are all well and good but when so much of Europe buys oil from Russia they won't last long enough to matter. 

To steal a great line from a bad movie there are only two courses of action in life, what we can do and what we can't. Stopping Russia from invading or kicking them out now that they have falls into the latter category. Unless you are willing to go to war over it. And that will likely mean nuclear weapons of it goes badly for Putin. 

Sure but no one said anyone is going to war over Ukraine and yes sanctions are the only realistic option.

Only Russia has been going on about war when Putin has suggested that NATO and Ukraine want to attack Russia and similar gaslighting. And sanctions can cripple an economy and force change and negotiation. They slow but they work if you look at countries like South Africa, Zimbabwe or Iran 

 

[Darkpriest]

12 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Nah, we will be fine with sanctions because their are different levels of sanctions. For example sanctions that would prohibit Russia from selling all those commodities would have to be enforced through the UNSC and that obviously wont happen because Russia and China would veto it 

And all those commodities can be bought in other countries, I doubt they can only found in Russia? For example Palladium is found in countries like the US and South Africa

So no need to worry about that  but I appreciate the concern. Sanctions are a very good idea and will be implemented. The only question being " what level of sanctions " 

One word.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/nickel-price

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_nickel_production

And think in which products it is used, and where do the other top two countries sell their resources. 

 

 

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

One word.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/nickel-price

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_nickel_production

And think in which products it is used, and where do the other top two countries sell their resources. 

 

 

Im unsure what you suggesting? Commodities prices are directly influenced by supply and demand and sentiment

So of course the Ukraine crisis is effecting the  Nickel price and the oil price but thats sentiment and nervousness

Its not the same concern as thinking we can only  get those types of commodities from Russia? Unless Im misunderstanding your post but you said " Ask yourself, where do palladium, nickel, natural gas, oil, uranium, grain, fertilizer and a bunch of other goods we depend upon come from "

And Im saying they come from all over the world and they traded on an open market ?

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Literally no one in Europe wants any part of this train-wreck that Biden started. They all need Putin’s energy far more than they need our politics

Don't speak for the whole Europe on this.
In the east there will be much more willingness to impose sanctions.

[Sarex]

2 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Don't speak for the whole Europe on this.
In the east there will be much more willingness to impose sanctions.

But those don't matter.

[Darkpriest]

Meanwhile in US

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/trump-truth-app-climbs-top-225650629.html

https://news.yahoo.com/mike-bloomberg-warns-democrats-midterm-114134089.html

[pmp10]

1 minute ago, Sarex said:

But those don't matter.

Right now they don't.
But if they see EU or NATO being useless things might change.

[Darkpriest]

5 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Don't speak for the whole Europe on this.
In the east there will be much more willingness to impose sanctions.

I've quoted a piece, but yes eastern side of EU and NATO is more willing to heavier sanctions, however they do not have tje weight on their own amd Humgary is am odd one out there too. Countries in the region also have some difficult history with Ukraine. 

[Darkpriest]

26 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Im unsure what you suggesting? Commodities prices are directly influenced by supply and demand and sentiment

So of course the Ukraine crisis is effecting the  Nickel price and the oil price but thats sentiment and nervousness

Its not the same concern as thinking we can only  get those types of commodities from Russia? Unless Im misunderstanding your post but you said " Ask yourself, where do palladium, nickel, natural gas, oil, uranium, grain, fertilizer and a bunch of other goods we depend upon come from "

And Im saying they come from all over the world and they traded on an open market ?

Yes, but you can imagine if you cut lets say access to a 10th of world supplies with already stretched supply lines in the global economy and economies battling high inflation?

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/5-commodities-could-explode-ukraine-crisis-escalates

Question is, can you afford even longer period of high inflation in the period of slowing economic growth. 

 

Just to point out Germany

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-21/germany-tipped-into-second-recession-by-virus-bundesbank-says

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Malcador]

 

Probably could get two out of that four.

[BruceVC]

36 minutes ago, Malcador said:

 

Probably could get two out of that four.

What 2 do you think may be accepted? I say recognize Crimea and negotiate on Donbas ?

[Darkpriest]

So far sanctions are as expected and nothing of high significance. 

Let see what US admin is cooking. Most likely some tech related, but lets see. 

[BruceVC]

14 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

So far sanctions are as expected and nothing of high significance. 

Let see what US admin is cooking. Most likely some tech related, but lets see. 

I just watched an interview on CNN with the president of the European Commission and she mentioned  a range of sanctions that are more severe than I would have guessed if they implemented and they get progressively more serious. They include not allowing Russia to access the majority of the Western financial markets and not providing finance to Russian companies and public sector  and then if Russia increases its Ukrainian occupation they will stop providing Russian companies and the government with certain goods and components necessary for the rebuild of its infrastructure. I can see if I can find the interview tomorrow but they much than what is mentioned in the tweet 

[Zoraptor]

Big news, Nordstream 2 approval has been paused. Oh yeah, it was actually paused months ago, just not formally.

7 hours ago, Gorth said:

Didn't know Belgium were the power behind the SWIFT system. But yeah, a collapse of the SWIFT system as a global thing could result in a loss of both money and trust in the system. So... better be nice to Belgium, or else!
 

SWIFT is a private consortium based in Belgium rather than being Belgian in the governmental sense. That's one of the problems, cutting someone off from SWIFT renders them less important and has other potential problems per below, and they don't like that idea at all.

The ultimate problem is that SWIFT is not secure, the US at very least has penetrated it. Considering the Russians stole all the CIA hacking tools and documentation it's entirely possible that they have hacked it too. At present, no one has a motive to damage SWIFT though as it would do economic damage to everyone. But that makes using SWIFT as a lever very dangerous for Europe as Russia (and China) definitely have an alternative and if they aren't on SWIFT they also have no motive not to ruin it for everyone on their way out.

7 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Bring oby back.

Parvenu

Lord of Flies. Accept no imitations.

3 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Well, to burst your view, markets apparently share my view, as what happened in all these theatrics, is essentially reinforcing already existing status quo...

Unfortunately Gromnir has a bit of a habit of this. He's about the only person in existence who believes there were no lies from the US about Iraqi WMDs, they were just 100% honestly mistaken in their conservative and well researched attributions. Perhaps more pertinently he thought sanctions would drive Russia bankrupt in 6 months, in 2014. When they didn't it just became an interesting academic point he was raising. Instead they've got more reserves now than then.

So when the US said that an invasion would be launched on the 16th at 3am and it didn't happen that wasn't wrong and sensationalist, it was just, hmm, differently right. Similarly when they went from ready to invade any day to 70% ready despite bringing in more troops that wasn't evidence of sensationalism, that was just being differently responsible.

I mean, Joe Biden just said that the invasion was going to go a lot further than he'd previously indicated. He'd previously indicated a full scale invasion. What's further than a full scale invasion?

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Right now they don't.
But if they see EU or NATO being useless things might change.

And that would be Russia's wet dream and a success beyond imagining. They'd love a NATO2, even tacit, as it would ruin OG NATO. No France, no Germany, No Turkey. Almost certainly not even all of eastern Europe either, hard to see Bulgaria or Hungary joining.

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Probably could get two out of that four.

Depends on whether we're talking about what would be given up theoretically, and what could be done practically. Theoretically, the status of Donbass is already part of MInsk (which I see the US has suddenly discovered, now that it's largely irrelevant) but plain couldn't be implemented politically in Ukraine; and that was probably the most minor of the demands. Giving up Crimea and pledging not to join NATO could also be agreed theoretically. Demilitarisation is pretty clearly intended to be dropped as part of negotiations as it's the one thing that simply couldn't be agreed.

Politically none of them can be implemented as it currently stands. It's as much a pipe dream as western pressure getting Putin to return Crimea. Even if Zelensky/ Putin decided to do it he'd face anything up to open insurrection trying to implement it. Zelensky has been a bit erratic, but it's entirely understandable given the pressure applied from both sides

[Darkpriest]

56 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I just watched an interview on CNN with the president of the European Commission and she mentioned  a range of sanctions that are more severe than I would have guessed if they implemented and they get progressively more serious. They include not allowing Russia to access the majority of the Western financial markets and not providing finance to Russian companies and public sector  and then if Russia increases its Ukrainian occupation they will stop providing Russian companies and the government with certain goods and components necessary for the rebuild of its infrastructure. I can see if I can find the interview tomorrow but they much than what is mentioned in the tweet 

Like Russians care? Why do you think they got loads of reserves in the first place? 

They won't go any further. 

https://www.ft.com/content/dc77ae83-15fc-481a-8f52-9184068e6a56

Do you even trace in your bank where Russia is trading its soverign debt and who purchases it? 

The line was drawn and it was already known and accepted that Russia is controlling and will control Donbas in one or other way. 

They avoid any sanctions that could potentially harm any supply chains and resources, and that's the source of Russia's economic power. The more oil and gaas rises the better for Russia, and oil and gas will be rising in price. 

[Darkpriest]

This pic is from a Polish version of Bild or TheSun etc. 

It does however show, what I would agree to be the end game for Putin's Russia. 

I doubt it will happen near term, but IF there is a plan for a major invasion this would be the end goal. 

 

[Gromnir]

"Blix accused U.S. President George W. Bush and U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair of acting not in bad faith, but with a severe lack of "critical thinking.""

"Blix has written a new book, "Disarming Iraq," about the events leading up to the war. During that period he was lambasted by both doves and hawks: by the former for failing to state unequivocally that Iraq had no WMDs, and by the latter for failing to find them. As he explained Wednesday night, part of the problem was that he himself had believed the weapons probably existed. "I'm not here to have gut feelings," he said. "But yes, in December 2002 I thought Saddam had weapons of mass destruction." Still, "the objective was to inspect effectively and to report objectively.""

even low effort folks may find.

the criticism from blix (zor's example... who said the opposite o' zor claims) is not that bush admin lied, but rather that they acted w/o the requisite knowledge to make an informed decision. cheney and others were convinced that the wmds were in iraq, based in part o' interrogations o' iraqi scientists who turned out to be purposeful lying. absence o' intel were never gonna change their belief.

'course zor misrepresentations o' this and other issues is kinda par for the course when zor gets exposed by his self w/o seeming to have self awareness to realize. 

same bat time. same bat channel.

edit:

we were in the audience at the time, which is why we knew zor using blix were another example o' somebody talking out their kiester w/o actual knowing... which is what has happened the past week or so.

HA! Good Fun!

Edited February 22, 2022 by Gromnir

[Malcador]

I guess incompetence is better than deceit

[Zoraptor]

Well, I mean Gromnir doesn't even think things like Rumsfeld's "we know where [the wmds] are.." line were lies, when he obviously didn't know where they were and couldn't since they didn't exist. Hence the fixation on Blix. Not sure a 'they were just effing morons' excuse is great anyway, but I guess you take what you can.

[Gromnir]

22 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I guess incompetence is better than deceit

we brought up blix after zor misrepresented... and comical zor is once again exposing self. of course rumsfield believed there were wmds present in iraq; that was the point blix were making. weren't lies. the US had intelligence going back years which had convinced americans and other nations that there were wmds in iraq. 'course zor is gonna spin regardless... as this last week clear shows and his own unsupportable reimagining o' blix clarifies... again. got blix explicit saying bush stepped in and defended his inspection efforts. got blix saying weren't lies but were indeed dogged defense o' a belief unsupported by actual facts. got blix admitting even he thought saddam hussein had wmds in late 2002. a whole lotta wrong from zor... again. once more, to accept zor fantasies, what you see and read is not what you is seeing and reading.

'course it should be made clear there was deceit, which we has most assured criticized over and over again. just weren't deceit as many need to believe were present regarding the wmd issue. too many focus on the wmd issue and ignore how the costs o' peacekeeping efforts in iraq were known before 2003. the wh did most assured mislead americans regarding the costs o' iraq. is no way americans would support a foreign war followed by a necessary occupation if the real costs were presented to the american people. we only ever had a fraction o' the required manpower to maintain peace in iraq, and the wh knew the costs but spun fairytales o' how the iraqis were gonna police selves post invasion. 

HA! Good Fun!

[rjshae]

6 hours ago, Malcador said:

 

Probably could get two out of that four.

Normalize should be in quotes. Those demands are basically a Ukrainian surrender to Russian mastery. No country worth its salt would find them acceptable. Modern evil on display.

[Chairchucker]

I've gotten the impression elsewhere that Putin is basically mad at Ukraine for existing instead of being part of the USSR, run by him