The all things Poltical topic - We bear our banners aloft, boots like Drums Our Cadence quick, our countenance dire.

[Zoraptor]

Nope, the original criticism was: .."one of their rockets is going to crash. Quality control and safety are not words that can be attributed to Chinese industry".. and that's a direct quote with only the emphasis added.

If it were quality control only I might- probably couldn't have been bothered- have pointed out that (allegedly at least) the Chinese rocket is actually Working As Designed; so it isn't a QC problem but is a safety one, to whit, what it's designed to do is dangerous. None of the situations I listed except the SpaceX one were QC issues- unless the Chinese rocket failed its reiginition in which case it would be directly equivalent to the SpaceX situation where the Falcon failed its reignition. But the allegation at least is that it simply isn't able to reignite.

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Wasn't that due to a disaster, though ?

Sure, but not in the same no fault way that, say, a shuttle being hit by a meteorite or untracked space debris would be.

(Both disasters were caused by known issues and could have been avoided, in the case of Challenger really should have been avoided too. Neither were really quality control issues though, the prior night's temperature was known to be out of spec for the O rings on Challenger and the launch should have been delayed as a result, but wasn't. Definitely fair to call it a safety issue though. With Columbia both the booster foam and insulation tiles were within specification, the specs were just insufficient and known to be insufficient too so again, a safety problem. The only bad design aspect of Skylab was not having a mechanism for controlled descent as, for example, Mir had, but since it lacked that it was also fundamentally unsafe same as a reignition less Chinese rocket would be, but yeah, neither are QC issues)

[Gromnir]

compare to mir, which were more than a decade after skylab went into orbit, may not be fair. however, there is indeed truth in observing there were inherent safety concerns with skylab which were recognized but dismissed as fixable after launch. assume the shuttle would be able to fix skylab issues were the inexplicably compelling argument back in the early 70s. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

 

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Sure, but not in the same no fault way that, say, a shuttle being hit by a meteorite or untracked space debris would be.

Hm ok, one way to look at it I suppose.

Apparently the wreckage wanted a good vacation spot, came down in the area of the Maldives.

 

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

 

(For anyone wondering: Dungan Revolt. Bonus contemporaneous war that killed more than WW1 but you've never heard of: Taiping (Heavenly Kingdom) Rebellion)

It is interesting and  I had never heard anything about these wars but I have never studied or been particularly interested in the history of any far East countries. You cant study  and follow the history of every region and country because it requires time and effort and I have been intentionally selective around what history in what area I research because of this. So things  like WW1, Cold War, the  evolution and success  of Capitalism  and  Colonialism and post-Colonialism in Africa is what I am interested in 

I know their have been many wars and genocides in almost all far East countries going back thousands of years and lets not forget the terrible atrocities inflicted on the Chinese by the Japanese during WW2, its right up their with the worst examples of genocide ever seen 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanjing_Massacre

But the main point is trying to create any false equivalence by ignoring the current and unacceptable treatment  of the Uigyar Muslims by the CCP is not going to change anything around the condemnation and criticism that China will continue to receive. China needs to understand what being a member of the global community means and in this community mass rape, forced reeducation and intentionally splitting up   family members so people dont publicly talk about the truth in Xinjiang will never be acceptable to most of the world 

Thats the point 

[Raithe]

 

[Raithe]

 

Edited May 9, 2021 by Raithe

[Guard Dog]

Prices on the rise everywhere as consumers feel stretched 

it’s the double whammy of shortages plus inflation. Funny thing though and I couldn’t help but notice this the woman they quote in the article who is supposed to represent the typical consumer has about $3000 worth of tattoos on her arm and body. Can’t help but think that money might’ve been better spent at Costco LOL!

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

1 hour ago, Raithe said:

 

There's a fairly good chance that one of them is going to be President of the US within a decade. Lmao.

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, ArtistFormerlyKnownasKP said:

There's a fairly good chance that one of them is going to be President of the US within a decade. Lmao.

We're becoming a bananas republic.

[ComradeYellow]

On 5/8/2021 at 8:10 AM, Guard Dog said:

So I read today that the peoples Republic of China produces more carbon and greenhouse gas than all other nations combined. What are they going to do about it? Nothing. What can we do about it? Nothing. By the way they are also the ones that are rattling everyone’s cages and basically threatening to go to war with everyone. But all the world organizations kiss their ass. I have to say sometimes that’s hard to fathom

And to make matters worse, Russian "Eurasianists" (Russian fascists) are now influencing Chinese minds as some of their press are now openly publishing their work.

Many Westerners see Putin as some kind of right wing despot, but by Russian standards, he's quite moderate and almost liberal, it's certainly possible a right wing coup could happen in Russia and cement a nasty Russia-China alliance against the West.

https://asiatimes.com/author/spengler/

The Russian pessimist says things are so bad they can’t possibly get worse; the Russian optimist says, “Don’t worry, they will!”

If Western leaders think that Russia and China are aggressive now, the Russian-Chinese alliance now emerging will be a nastier combination than most Western observers can imagine. It doesn’t have to happen, but probably will, given the West’s toxic combination of aggressive posturing and inherent weakness.

The former tempts China to use force, and the latter causes China to think that it can get away with using force. Case in point: On May 6 the hawkish Chinese policy site “Observer” (guancha.cn) led with a 5,000 word screed by Russia’s “Eurasianist” ideologue Aleksandr Dugin, the inspiration for younger officers in Russia’s military and intelligence services who think that Vladimir Putin is too soft on the West.

[ComradeYellow]

On 5/8/2021 at 11:52 AM, HoonDing said:

"Chinese aggression"

how many women and children have they droned lately?

Sorry to double post BUT I think this needs to be addressed...

https://asiatimes.com/2021/05/chinese-drones-a-killer-eye-in-the-sky-in-myanmar/

Now granted it's technically "Myanmar" (whatever happed to Burma?) government doing this, but Chinese drones are certainly a thing.  I'll bet on "stay tuned"

The US has made countless mistakes in the near past but do you really think the Chinese will be better if they had peer power of the U.S.?

Honestly at this point I just wish their were no such thing as superpowers, they don't solve anything and they cause more problems than they solve.

[Zoraptor]

Myanmar and Burma are the same word more or less. Effectively it's like the Marathi Bombay -> Mumbai or Bengali Calcutta -> Kolkata crossed with Holland/ Netherlands.

Quote

ideologue Aleksandr Dugin, the inspiration for younger officers in Russia’s military and intelligence services who think that Vladimir Putin is too soft on the West.

Please follow the rules of the internet and mention Foundations of Geopolitics and how it explains everything about Russia when mentioning that name.

[Gorth]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57050690

"The US government issued emergency legislation on Sunday after the largest fuel pipeline in the US was hit by a ransomware cyber-attack.

The Colonial Pipeline carries 2.5 million barrels a day - 45% of the East Coast's supply of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. It was completely knocked offline by a cyber-criminal gang on Friday and is still working to restore service."

 

The Democrats will probably blame it on Russia. The Republicans will probably blame it on China. Iran will be laughing it's ass off in the meantime...

[Skarpen]

13 hours ago, rjshae said:

We're becoming a bananas republic.

 "I hate to break it to you, but that ship has sailed, wrecked and sunk to the bottom of the ocean."

[Darkpriest]

17 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

Prices on the rise everywhere as consumers feel stretched 

it’s the double whammy of shortages plus inflation. Funny thing though and I couldn’t help but notice this the woman they quote in the article who is supposed to represent the typical consumer has about $3000 worth of tattoos on her arm and body. Can’t help but think that money might’ve been better spent at Costco LOL!

Meanwhile you've printed yourself into a debt, which is of what percent of your GDP? What's the increase of trade deficit? 

At which point you will call for insolvency of the new Socialist Banana States of America and start using USD as a toilet paper? 

[Gorth]

6 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Meanwhile you've printed yourself into a debt, which is of what percent of your GDP? What's the increase of trade deficit? 

At which point you will call for insolvency of the new Socialist Banana States of America and start using USD as a toilet paper? 

Careful what you wish for (not that you wished for it, just an expression), if the USD implodes, the world economy and most western countries will follow suit as they us it as a currency reserve (rather than tangible assets like gold etc.)

 

Edit: The figures for Poland

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/poland/foreign-exchange-reserves

Approx $140bn currently.  if the USD becomes toilet paper... sucks to be the Polish currency.

[Darkpriest]

48 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Careful what you wish for (not that you wished for it, just an expression), if the USD implodes, the world economy and most western countries will follow suit as they us it as a currency reserve (rather than tangible assets like gold etc.)

 

If you will notice trends, a lot of central banks started buying aand collecting gold home during last year. 

Meanwhile Russia slowly but steadily switches from USD to EUR and other currencies, and are preparing to decouple from SWIFT if needed. (this would imply another settlments service, which would be used by countries, which have had enough of US dominance and leave US teethless when it comes to economic sanctions, with the military solution as last available tool of enforcing sanctions) 

 

I'm quite sure that we are due for a big crisis, and the longer you kick the can froward, the worse it will be. 

I expect one by end of 2022.  Soon Fed will be caught in the death grip of 'transitory' hyperinflation causing unrest as food (I've made a killing so far on wheat, corn, suggar, less so on coffee and I believe I mentioned these somewhere at the beginning of the year ) and commodities (copper, lumber) expolde or tapering money flows and rising rates, what would kill the debt driven economy. 

 

Also some other perspective

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/gundlach-warns-americas-unfunded-liabilities-are-163-trillion-more-5x-national-debt

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/just-throwing-money-it-doesnt-work-dimon-slams-planned-dem-tax-hikes-little-bit-crazy

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-there-are-just-two-ways-fix-todays-imbalances-economic-depression-or-soaring

Edited May 10, 2021 by Darkpriest

[Skarpen]

32 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Careful what you wish for (not that you wished for it, just an expression), if the USD implodes, the world economy and most western countries will follow suit as they us it as a currency reserve (rather than tangible assets like gold etc.)

 

Edit: The figures for Poland

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/poland/foreign-exchange-reserves

Approx $140bn currently.  if the USD becomes toilet paper... sucks to be the Polish currency.

I think the overall value is given in USD, but that doesn't mean all of the FER is in USD. Although I think it's about half of it, so still not that great. 

[Darkpriest]

@Guard Dog @Gorth

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

If you will notice trends, a lot of central banks started buying aand collecting gold home during last year. 

Meanwhile Russia slowly but steadily switches from USD to EUR and other currencies, and are preparing to decouple from SWIFT if needed. (this would imply another settlments service, which would be used by countries, which have had enough of US dominance and leave US teethless when it comes to economic sanctions, with the military solution as last available tool of enforcing sanctions) 

 

I'm quite sure that we are due for a big crisis, and the longer you kick the can froward, the worse it will be. 

I expect one by end of 2022.  Soon Fed will be caught in the death grip of 'transitory' hyperinflation causing unrest as food (I've made a killing so far on wheat, corn, suggar, less so on coffee and I believe I mentioned these somewhere at the beginning of the year ) and commodities (copper, lumber) expolde or tapering money flows and rising rates, what would kill the debt driven economy. 

 

Also some other perspective

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/gundlach-warns-americas-unfunded-liabilities-are-163-trillion-more-5x-national-debt

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/just-throwing-money-it-doesnt-work-dimon-slams-planned-dem-tax-hikes-little-bit-crazy

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-there-are-just-two-ways-fix-todays-imbalances-economic-depression-or-soaring

I predicted a major financial crash in 2020, but that was two years before Covid, that prediction will never be proven either or, as the world economy came tumbling down for other reasons.

https://www.thebalance.com/inverted-yield-curve-3305856

I have no clue about the mechanics behind this curve, but the last time it hit the headlights was after the 2009 GFC. I *think* 2012 was the first time I heard about it and how it was a reliable indicated of major economic meltdowns.

On a more funny level, an entirely anecdotal and unscientific herald of doom for me was, 2019 was only the second time ever a company I worked for offered employees to buy shares in the company. The first time it happened was in late 2008 (iirc). I rejected the offer back then and share prices plummeted to 30% of their original values within 6 months. I felt like I had just escaped a car accident by not getting part of my salary paid in shares. I also said no this time around and counted my blessings for doing so, but I was joking with colleagues in October 2019, that I think the world is going to end in 2020 because of the share offer

 

1 hour ago, Skarpen said:

I think the overall value is given in USD, but that doesn't mean all of the FER is in USD. Although I think it's about half of it, so still not that great. 

True. A bit of laziness on my part. None of the websites popping up on my one and only google search showed the exact detail I was looking for (not in human readable, non tech English)... But I think the point is reasonably valid, countries with any sizeable currency reserve of USD could be at risk of a major write off.

 

[Darkpriest]

@Gorth

In layman's terms inverted curve suggests that there is more uncertainty about you being able to buyback your debt in near future than in the far future. Normally you have higher certainty short term than long term, so if it goes belly up, something fishy is going on and you should be on your toes and hedge your risks. 

I usually monitor 10Y TSY the most as this drives most commercialized debt costs and is a kind of benchmark, but each yield has its purpose and if you think more seriously about investments, you need know the money market and its implications quite well. 

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

 

NOTE: also don't forget about corporate

https://ycharts.com/indicators/moodys_seasoned_aaa_corporate_bond_yield

or other institutional debt and debt based instruments that bundle up various debt instruments

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-are-most-short-junk-debt-lehman

 

Edited May 10, 2021 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

1 hour ago, Skarpen said:

I think the overall value is given in USD, but that doesn't mean all of the FER is in USD. Although I think it's about half of it, so still not that great. 

I'm quite sure that FED, if pressed hard, will rather protect the usd from becoming a dumpster material, but there will be a lot of pain just before and after the dollar rescue measures. 

Poland has its own problems when it comes to incompetency or centrally driven politics by an out of touch lunatic. Poland will be dealing with its own issue of inflation vs rates, and as far as I'm certain that eventually sanity will prevail in US, i do not have the same certainty with the currently ruling overlords of Poland. They are just powerhungry cretins, who wasted good years and will rather sink the ship than give up a steering wheel in time to make repairs amd save it. 

 

Another issue is though, that there is no sane people who could take the wheel and rescue from a crash. 

Edited May 10, 2021 by Darkpriest

[Raithe]

For that slightly different aspect of politics...

https://www.thewrap.com/golden-globes-canceled-netflix-amazon-boycott-hfpa-reform/

The battle lines for the Golden Globes have been drawn, and the beleaguered awards show and the tiny group of foreign journalists who choose the winners took a step closer to cancellation last week.  

This may be confusing to some, as last week finally saw a comprehensive set of reforms by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association overwhelmingly approved by the 86 members of the group. The HFPA committed to more than doubling its membership within 18 months and to ensure that half of all new members would come from underrepresented groups. It committed to electing a new board in September and to hiring outside, professional executive leadership. 

The response from activist groups as well as top Hollywood companies like Netflix and Amazon? Not enough. Too slow. Awfully vague.

[Guard Dog]

4 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Meanwhile you've printed yourself into a debt, which is of what percent of your GDP? What's the increase of trade deficit? 

At which point you will call for insolvency of the new Socialist Banana States of America and start using USD as a toilet paper? 

About 60 seconds after something replaces the dollar as the world reserve currency for trade

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Meanwhile Russia slowly but steadily switches from USD to EUR and other currencies, and are preparing to decouple from SWIFT if needed. (this would imply another settlments service, which would be used by countries, which have had enough of US dominance and leave US teethless when it comes to economic sanctions, with the military solution as last available tool of enforcing sanctions)

Technically SWIFT is European. Based in Belgium, iirc. Thoroughly compromised by the NSA though, and frankly, if they were the only ones I'd be extraordinarily surprised.

So it going would be great since it's pretty useless and hopelessly insecure, if it weren't for the fact that a replacement would also be specced by the sort of people who think building backdoors into everything is a great idea. Russia and China have supposedly had an alternative ready to go for years.