The all things Political topic -In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie

[ComradeYellow]

https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/bidens-zigzag-diplomacy-aims-to-alienate-russia/

In a reversal of the policy of former US president Barack Obama not to provoke Russia,

the Biden administration has begun supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine, which has fired up revanchist neo-Nazi Ukrainian nationalists.

Figures.

[Darkpriest]

22 minutes ago, ComradeYellow said:

https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/bidens-zigzag-diplomacy-aims-to-alienate-russia/

 

 

Figures.

Problem is that democrats pushed themselves into a corner where they must do something publically visible to Russia, as they've been pushing the spin that Trump colluded with Russians, that there was Russians involved in meddling in the ellections etc. 

Sure, Putin is no saint, but if you'd ask yourself, who killed more civilians in the last decade (US GOV or Russia GOV), you'd have some mental gymnastics to do. (that goes both to internal and external civilian figures). 

 

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Problem is that democrats pushed themselves into a corner where they must do something publically visible to Russia, as they've been pushing the spin that Trump colluded with Russians, that there was Russians involved in meddling in the ellections etc. 

Sure, Putin is no saint, but if you'd ask yourself, who killed more civilians in the last decade (US GOV or Russia GOV), you'd have some mental gymnastics to do. (that goes both to internal and external civilian figures). 

Estimated civilian deaths in Syria: 400,000. Putin FTW.

[ComradeYellow]

8 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Estimated civilian deaths in Syria: 400,000. Putin FTW.

Not quite.

The U.S. gvt arming neo Nazi's in the Ukraine is a bit alarming though, and I take issue with that.

Edited April 19, 2021 by ComradeYellow

[Zoraptor]

6 minutes ago, ComradeYellow said:

 

That's SNHR, who split from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights for not being extreme enough, and from 2016 though that mostly effects the Coalition numbers, for example, in Raqqa. Most significantly, SNHR also includes rebel combatants as civilians, unless they directly defected from the army, so there are ~100k people included who weren't actual civilians (cf SOHR who despite being anti government do separate combatant rebels and civilian deaths and who estimate ~120k or VDC who estimate 130k). That's also why SNHR figures for combatant casualties look really weird, with the side with more tanks and planes suffering considerably more combat losses than the side without them.

16 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Estimated civilian deaths in Syria: 400,000. Putin FTW.

As per above, civilian deaths are estimated in the ~120k area, IIRC comparable with Afghanistan post intervention; 400k is for all deaths including military. If we use that 400k, then we use the full combatant numbers for Iraq on all sides too, and that's, well, a lot lot more.

Estimated civilian deaths in Syria caused by Russia and the US are pretty comparable on a like/ like basis, 8000 v 4000. Indeed, on a genuinely like/ like basis the coalition ends up potentially looking worse since they retook a lot less urban area and a lot less population than the government did, certainly more than the 2x factor in civilian deaths. East Aleppo alone was multiple times the population of the largest city retaken by the SDF, Raqqa. The more urban area, the more civilians will die.

1 hour ago, ComradeYellow said:

In a reversal of the policy of former US president Barack Obama not to provoke Russia,

the Biden administration has begun supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine, which has fired up revanchist neo-Nazi Ukrainian nationalists.

Meh, Trump supplied lethal weapons too (eg Javelins), and he was seen as being soft on Russia. And he wanted to bomb Russian SAMs in Syria and had to be talked out of it by Mattis, lest we forget. And he expelled a bunch of Russian diplomats, and they expelled a lot more of his. Lethal weapons only matter if an escalation is intended, and as per previous we get 'imminent invasion' articles and claims every year when the Russians hold war games.

Biden's walking a tightrope where his support base has been fed a diet of Russiagate and Trump Derangement Syndrome conspiracies for 5 years which brings certain expectations- and when they get debunked, like the 'bounties', it's always with a murmur not a shout. But any contest with China will be a lot easier with the Russians on board, or at least not inextricably bound to China. So you get a round of tepid expulsions and sanctions so weak that the Ruble rose significantly after they were announced, and an apparently condition free offer of a summit.

I'd go so far as say that it's a surprisingly sound strategy. Soundbites for the baying masses like calling Putin a killer- which Putin won't care about even slightly- while keeping lines of communication well and truly open on other issues.

[rjshae]

Regarding casualties from "government forces": without Putin's support, the Syrian government would have collapsed early on. They are propped up by Putin and using Putin-supplied armaments. I'd say cause and effect are pretty clear. But yeah, the US has done it's share of that sort of thing.

[ComradeYellow]

12 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Regarding casualties from "government forces": without Putin's support, the Syrian government would have collapsed early on. They are propped up by Putin and using Putin-supplied armaments. I'd say cause and effect are pretty clear. But yeah, the US has done it's share of that sort of thing.

If the Syrian government collapsed, who knows what kind of extremist groups would replaced Assad.  If Islamists like ISIS took over Syria they would have had full access to the Mediterranean and would have been free launch sea based operations against Europe.

I'd say Assad could in fact be the lesser evil here.

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, ComradeYellow said:

If the Syrian government collapsed, who knows what kind of extremist groups would replaced Assad.  If Islamists like ISIS took over Syria they would have had full access to the Mediterranean and would have been free launch sea based operations against Europe.

I'd say Assad could in fact be the lesser evil here.

The fundamental problem with Assad losing, now, is that the stridently anti Assad Syrians are all either dead or fled already, so there's little additional damage to be done if he continues ruling except for the embarrassment. Refugees aren't willingly going to go home any time soon, and all you'd get from a rebel victory now is millions of pro Assad people fleeing the country as well, plus a bunch of genocidal score settling with Druze/ Christians/ Shia/ Alawite minorities.

Assad was probably the lesser evil from 2012, by that time the largest opposition groups were already ISIS lite  groups like Ahrar ash Sham/ Jaish al Islam and ISIS' literal progenitor Jabhat al Nusra (AQI's 'Support Front' for Syria, and while JaN split over becoming ISIS AQI literally became it).

1 hour ago, rjshae said:

Regarding casualties from "government forces": without Putin's support, the Syrian government would have collapsed early on. They are propped up by Putin and using Putin-supplied armaments. I'd say cause and effect are pretty clear. But yeah, the US has done it's share of that sort of thing.

The early support was almost exclusively from Iran rather than Russia using proxies like Hezbollah and Liwa Fatimayoun/ Zeinabiyoun from Afghanistan and Pakistan, and arming others like Liwa Al Quds (Palestinian refugees based in Syria). The Russians did almost nothing prior to 2015 even when it came to supplying excess equipment*, except for vetoes in the UNSC (mostly backed by China) and they didn't veto everything there either. The best evidence for that very limited involvement is what happened when Russia did intervene despite that intervention being mostly limited to a couple of dozen planes and helis and involving very few boots on ground outside Hmeimem AB- it permanently changed the situation on the ground in months, and made it obvious that the war was lost for the rebels after barely a year. Indeed, post intervention there was not a single significant long term gain from the rebels, which certainly was not the case beforehand. Iran still supports Syria more than Russia in terms of (proxy) boots on ground, and supplies a lot of oil etc free.

Most of the casualties in the war came prior to the Russian intervention, and by a pretty decent margin.

*certainly in part because a dearth of equipment was not really Syria's big problem, they probably had too many armoured vehicles which meant a lot got captured by the rebels, but they still had something ridiculous like 2000 tanks. OTOH, they could really have used some modern planes instead of relying on 50 year old models like the MiG-21 and Su-22, and trainer aircraft with juried attack rigs. Even when they got 'modern' stuff after the intervention there wasn't much of it, and a lot was being trialed by Iranian proxies for potential purchase by Iran (eg most of the T-90 tanks and some of the 'funnies' like the TOS-1).

Edited April 19, 2021 by Zoraptor

[Darkpriest]

6 hours ago, rjshae said:

Estimated civilian deaths in Syria: 400,000. Putin FTW.

So who invaded Syria and bombed it? 

[Darkpriest]

So, how's the whole "Jan 6th insurection" thread going in US? 

Seems it fell flat on its face, however we learnt two things:

1) The claims that police officer was killed by mob with a fire extinguisher was a fabricated story. 

2) Death of a woman, who was shot by an officer was swept under a rug, and her case did not call for charges against the officer. 

[Malcador]

9 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

2) Death of a woman, who was shot by an officer was swept under a rug, and her case did not call for charges against the officer. 

Well, seemed like a pretty reasonable shooting, jumping a barricade when there are men with weapons drawn pointing at you seems a fairly irrational act.  Plenty of conservatives did gnash their teeth about her, but rage is fleeting.

Seems people are being worked through the system over it. 

Related, Jon Schaffer is taking a plea deal - https://www.ghostcultmag.com/iced-earth-guitarist-jon-schaffer-has-cut-a-deal-in-his-case-with-the-us-government/

High water mark, indeed.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Malcador

[Hurlshort]

9 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

 

1) The claims that police officer was killed by mob with a fire extinguisher was a fabricated story. 

 

Fabricated? I mean, the guy died. Does he die if things stay quiet and he has a normal day at his post? He seems to have underlying health conditions, and that will mean it is unlikely anyone will be fully prosecuted for his death. Hardly means the story was fabricated.

[Raithe]

For other fun and games....

https://news.yahoo.com/anti-cancel-culture-republican-party-075401722.html

Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar paints himself as a free speech advocate, but he’s never seen a sex worker he didn’t want to censor. This week, Gosar, the GOP author of the “Stop Censorship Act of 2020,” penned a letter begging Attorney General Merrick Garland to shut down OnlyFans and investigate the porn platform for violating the Mann Act. Known as the “white-slave” law, the 1910 law forbids paying to transport women over state lines for prostitution.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Raithe

[Gromnir]

1 hour ago, Hurlsnot said:

Fabricated? I mean, the guy died. Does he die if things stay quiet and he has a normal day at his post? He seems to have underlying health conditions, and that will mean it is unlikely anyone will be fully prosecuted for his death. Hardly means the story was fabricated.

more relevant is recognition the situation is not as binary as dp describes, or at least not binary how he suggests. in point o' fact, while both the shooting o' the capitol rioter and the clearing o' the person who shot her were covered extensive by mainstream media (not swept under the rug by law enforcement or media) am still shocked so few o' the capitol rioters were repelled with serious force.

is the f'ing Capitol for chrissakes, and you got protesters erecting mock gallows and calling for the deaths o' pence and other Congressmen as they storm the Capitol while the 2020 Presidential election results is being confirmed. protesters get disturbing close to members o' Congress after having broken through windows, doors and barricades. one protester is shot? just one? wth? as has been noted elsewhere in this thread, law enforcement in this country has broad leeway to use force to protect self and others, but to protect Congressmen at the US Capitol from an angry mob, law enforcement showed curious restraint. 

dp seems to have "swept under a rug" misattributed, 'cause am genuine still wanting to know how protesters got so far with so little law enforcement resistance. contrary to bruce notions, history shows that shoot people in a mob is as likely to increase violence as to curb it. that said, when law enforcement is severe outnumbered, and until law enforcement achieves overwhelming tactical advantage, am seeing a plausible explanation for the milquetoast response we witnessed. nevertheless, am kinda wanting an explanation as to how a bunch ' flannel bedecked hooligans managed to storm the Capitol with so little law enforcement resistance. more important, am wondering what is the response for future, 'cause no doubt domestic militia groups and foreign powers were surprised by how little force were used to stop the protests. if there were to be some kinda next time at Capitol or elsewhere, am hopeful the response is better.

swept under a rug is exact what gop in Congress is doing as republicans still refuse to agree to support for independent investigations o' the January 6 incident. wanna know truth and details o' January 6? good luck. have had this conversation with @Guard Dog once or twice how the history o' the most famous battles of the civil war is not quite the uncontroverted facts we all accept. read firsthand sources o' civil war battles is an utter mess, 'cause battles, less than riots, is chaotic. historians has come to a consensus regarding what happened during famous civil war battles based on physical evidence and first had accounts, but is not the objective real we all pretend. making sense o' battles is as much art as science and expecting all facts to be correct regarding what is obviously an event peopled heavily by fact-challenged narrators and their iphones will make investigations more difficult. all the more reason to investigate now, as soon as possible.

dp is predictable selective with his choice o' intraweb sources and experts to reinforce his chosen pov and narrative, which is so 21st century banal, but disappointing nevertheless. want truth?  do as Gromnir has advised many times (and received curiously forceful resistance more than once) and wait for facts pending thorough and transparent investigations. unfortunately, one party appears disturbing dedicated to sweeping the events o' january 6 under the rug, right up until a detail seems to support a chosen narrative. shame. 

HA! Good Fun!

ps investigate events leading up to the moment when a mob headed to the Capitol on January 6 should be much easier to manage than make sense o' the events at the Capitol itself. we know who said what and when they said and what they did and who they paid... and the who, what, where and why we don't know can be discovered with a bit o' effort. far less chaos. nevertheless, Congress is instead cultivating mushrooms. unforgivable. somebodies is sweeping under a rug. 

 

[Raithe]

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/04/eu-lawmakers-propose-strict-curbs-on-use-of-facial-recognition/?

[BruceVC]

Wow the George Floyd verdict is in...very exciting, I think he will be found guilty of the second charge, I think it was third degree manslaughter, 25 years he should get ?

[Gromnir]

am not predicting jury results w/o having seen jury behavior. been in such situations too many times to realize predict from outside courtroom is inherent flawed. jurors is people, and we all should know the people is the element o' chaos indivisible from so many human activities.

that said, am gonna take a quick opportunity to observe how there is no legit reason to wait for the verdict to protest. IF you believe system is rigged or flawed, is flawed regardless o' verdict. anybody saw any evidence this trial were handled poorly by da, judge or other governmental actors to ensure a defendant win? this were an extreme transparent trial, and we ain't heard any complaints o' government sabotage. IF you are bothered by laws which make chauvin less likely to be convicted, such has nothing to do with the trial in general or the verdict specific. IF you are angered by law enforcement treatment o' people o' color, the jury verdict in this case does noes not make law enforcement more or less culpable. IF you simple believe jury trials is bs, then verdict is inconsequential.

people are on the edge o' their seats waiting for a verdict to express outrage, but the verdict shouldn't make a difference for any source o' outrage we can identify... other than outrage at specific jurors which is an unavoidable if you got jury trials.

am bothered by so many waiting for this verdict as some kinda litmus test or bellwether. is not. just ain't.

HA! Good Fun!

ps somehow got culpable autocorrected to capable. fixed.

 

 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Gromnir

[Guard Dog]

Amy Coney Barrett asked to recuse herself from 1st Am case

don’t know how this will play out but it does not seem like an unreasonable ask. The way it looks she is only tangentially connected to one of the litigants. But it seems like a good idea to me to avoid even the appearance of bias. 

[Guard Dog]

26 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

am not predicting jury results w/o having seen jury behavior. been in such situations too many times to realize predict from outside courtroom is inherent flawed. jurors is people, and we all should know the people is the element o' chaos indivisible from so many human activities.

that said, am gonna take a quick opportunity to observe how there is no legit reason to wait for the verdict to protest. IF you believe system is rigged or flawed, is flawed regardless o' verdict. anybody saw any evidence this trial were handled poorly by da, judge or other governmental actors to ensure a defendant win? this were an extreme transparent trial, and we ain't heard any complaints o' government sabotage. IF you are bothered by laws which make chauvin less likely to be convicted, such has nothing to do with the trial in general or the verdict specific. IF you are angered by law enforcement treatment o' people o' color, the jury verdict in this case does noes not make law enforcement more or less culpable. IF you simple believe jury trials is bs, then verdict is inconsequential.

people are on the edge o' their seats waiting for a verdict to express outrage, but the verdict shouldn't make a difference for any source o' outrage we can identify... other than outrage at specific jurors which is an unavoidable if you got jury trials.

am bothered by so many waiting for this verdict as some kinda litmus test or bellwether. is not. just ain't.

HA! Good Fun!

ps somehow got culpable autocorrected to capable. fixed.

 

 

Does Biden and Waters comments create a realistic grounds for appeal? Seems like a stretch to me. But, there is a real good chance the jurors hear about it before the verdict. 

[Darkpriest]

6 hours ago, Hurlsnot said:

Fabricated? I mean, the guy died. Does he die if things stay quiet and he has a normal day at his post? He seems to have underlying health conditions, and that will mean it is unlikely anyone will be fully prosecuted for his death. Hardly means the story was fabricated.

Bashing head with fire extinguisher was fabricated. The officer died, but he was not murdered by an angry mob. 

 

Speaking of mobs, this seems to highlight some hypocrisy in partisan narratives. 

Don't get me wrong, in Trump case there was a narrative about stolen election, which could have riled up emotionally loaded people, but it was nowhere near the level of the direct language of confronting and taking to the streets used by Maxine. 

Heck on the same eve there was a drive-by attempt to shot National Guard... Just imagine if they would be able to return fire with assault weapons and killed the drive-by morons. (US military killing oppressed minoeities!!!) 

 

[Malcador]

3 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Don't get me wrong, in Trump case there was a narrative about stolen election, which could have riled up emotionally loaded people, but it was nowhere near the level of the direct language of confronting and taking to the streets used by Maxine. 

Sort of funny how you view the two.  People get to wrapped up in pointing out hypocrisy rather than what they think themselves.

Chauvin guilty on all three.

[Darkpriest]

I was suspecting third after @Gromnir explanation and was sure of manslaughter, but 2nd is odd to me, then again def  of murder and felony are a bit odd to me when lookin at MN

 

I wonder how fast they will try to apeal it due to pressure on jury etc. 

I expect this will be the playbook. 

[Gromnir]

2 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

Does Biden and Waters comments create a realistic grounds for appeal? Seems like a stretch to me. But, there is a real good chance the jurors hear about it before the verdict. 

judges hate to overturn a jury verdict. hardly a new problem. is more than a few instances when trump commented on trials and judges just kinda ignored. biden were a bit more vague than waters, but both shoulda' kept their mouth shut 'til after the trial were over. shoulda' known better.

good chance to win mistrial appeal? doubt it, but why should we even need be discussing?  

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Malcador]

1 minute ago, Darkpriest said:

I wonder how fast they will try to apeal it due to pressure on jury etc. 

I expect this will be the playbook. 

Would appeal as soon as they can regardless.  Remarkable how this fool could have avoided all of this fuss if he'd heeded the rookie's suggestion.

[Gromnir]

9 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Would appeal as soon as they can regardless.  Remarkable how this fool could have avoided all of this fuss if he'd heeded the rookie's suggestion.

which is why am thinking this ain't the win many is gonna imagine it to be. were the +9 minutes and the refusal to listen to concerns o' others present and the failure to remove pressure once there were no pulse and...

chauvin behavior were shock the conscience level stoopid, and as much as people hate cops 'round here, is rare we see a trial when is quite so obvious.  nothing is gonna change precise 'cause is so easy to identify multiple points when chauvin shoulda' done something he did not. sooper cop got rolled up by his own department as a police captain and training expert testified against him? don't count on that happening in the future unless the foolishness is equal extreme.  oh, and in spite o' fact we observed multiple times we thought outliers such as dp were not how reasonable jurors would see, we nevertheless were not sure the jury would do as we thought reasonable jurors should. 

chauvin were exact what law enforcement claims is the problem: a bad apple. the bad apple has been identified and discarded so it may no longer poison the rest o' the barrel. everybody wins. the system worked, no? law enforcement pundits and more than a few folks on the right will agree chauvin got his proper reward 'cause doing so reinforces the bad apple narrative. everybody wins? 

HA! Good Fun!