Coronavirus Goes Fourth

[Boeroer]

Sorry for double post again.

My wife just came back from a talk with a head physician of the Charité (biggest German university hospital in Berlin, one of the biggest in Europe). He said that IC patients are dying like flies and that he never saw anything like that. Dead bodies piling up. He was pretty devastated and angry that we still don't have a hard (but short) lockdown but instead are still trying to solve this with soft (but prolonged and prolonged and prolonged...) measures.

While schools and kindergardens are closed my wife still has to go to the office - because her boss said "well, we have a special work ethic here so we can't allow as much home office". Heh - as if working from home means that you instantly lose your will to work. The other ministries only have 30% of their staff in office - the rest is working from home. The foreign ministry does it the other way round.

[213374U]

50 minutes ago, Boeroer said:

And yes, like most people I believe an actual pandemic is worse than a nuclear war that didn't happen.

But the problem is the comparison is inconsistent. You are describing not a worst-case, but an impossible scenario with even 50% infection rates (the 1918 flu infected an estimated 30% of the world's pop, and your own reference to Sweden's hands-off approach makes it clear that the infection dynamics simply don't work that way because they are looking at a ~5-10% infection rate) and _attendant_ circumstances derived from bungling responses to the disease. A consistent comparison would be either best-case scenarios for both situations (i.e. averted war and effective measures limiting the spread with minimal disruption) or worst-case scenario comparisons for both. Once again -- Europe didn't see another war, but they very much happened elsewhere in the world, and it goes without saying that they caused mortality rates way higher than even the worst projections for 'rona even without going nuclear.

And yes, the fact is that most people (as in ~99%) will not die of 'rona, and those who do die tend to be higher and to the left in the population pyramid. Whether you feel this underestimates or overestimates the risk is irrelevant, because those are figures -- anything else you believe I'm saying is just you projecting onto what I've been posting.

As an aside, it's really weird that you're crying about personal attacks (which I didn't make by the way, I rather assume you are ignorant), after you insinuated that anyone who had the nerve to disagree with you or Merkel is a "looney conspiracy ideologist". Shoe on the other foot et al.

[Boeroer]

"I didn't attack you personally, I merely assumed you are either stupid or an obnoxious prat." 

[213374U]

Back to the memes, at least. Stick to what you know. Good man.

[Boeroer]

Would you consider yourself not a good man because you don't stick to what you know?

 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Boeroer

[Darkpriest]

Not sure if this was mentioned. There is a strain id E484K for COVID-19, which bypasses a lot of immunity generated by the currently available vaccines (or so it seems) 

I think we will wait with back to normal for a long time... 

 

[Hurlshort]

1 hour ago, 213374U said:

As an aside, it's really weird that you're crying about personal attacks (which I didn't make by the way, I rather assume you are ignorant)

This is the dumbest thing I have ever seen you write, numbers man. I mean, you typically come across as a smart guy with a bit of snark, and I mean that in the nicest of ways. But claiming something isn't personal while in the same breath calling someone ignorant is pretty daft. If you are going to talk down to someone, at least own it.

[Malcador]

Always amazing the kind of bickering that goes on here, when you consider what can actually come from it.

[Gfted1]

Ignorant does not equal stupid, it means uneducated on a matter.

[Malcador]

5 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Ignorant does not equal stupid, it means uneducated on a matter.

Colloquially it used as an insult though.

[213374U]

Fun as this has been, I figure the thread has been derailed enough, and I'm willing to take my share of the blame for this. I'm asking members to continue any further bickering by PM.

[Boeroer]

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

Ignorant does not equal stupid, it means uneducated on a matter.

...and obnoxious prat doesn't equal obnoxious prat, it means misguided fellow.

[Gfted1]

Cool story but I didnt address that comment. I was addressing Hurlshots reply.

[Boeroer]

1 hour ago, 213374U said:

Fun as this has been, I figure the thread has been derailed enough, and I'm willing to take my share of the blame for this. I'm asking members to continue any further bickering by PM.

Thank you. Memes didn't help either I guess.
Na I think I'm done. Let's go in peace and drink a (maybe virtual) beer. 


 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Boeroer

[Boeroer]

12 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Cool story but I didnt address that comment. I was addressing Hurlshots reply.

Ok, but at least I told a cool story once.  

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Not sure if this was mentioned. There is a strain id E484K for COVID-19, which bypasses a lot of immunity generated by the currently available vaccines (or so it seems)

That's a "some researchers are worried, some think it's not a worry" situation. There's been a reinfection case with e484k, but there have been reinfections with other strains too, the human immune system isn't perfect in the first place. The concensus seems to be that it may reduce effectiveness a bit, but that's all. It's more the implication from it that there could be mutations that reduce immunity a lot that is the issue.

That's the good thing about mRNA vaccines though, they're effectively reprogrammable. Stick a new spike protein sequence in to get new mRNA and a new vaccine in theoretically a few days (Pfizer guy said production could be switched within two weeks). A new vaccine at $40 per immunity, but then it being programmable is partly why it's so expensive.

[Boeroer]

4 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Pfizer guy said production could be switched within two weeks

Yeah, Biontech guy said the same - but maybe that's the same guy? 
I mean this one here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uğur_Şahin

[Zoraptor]

Same guy, same vaccine. BioNTech research, but (mainly) Pfizer production, and distribution iirc. Presumably the Moderna vaccine could be similarly programmed too, as it's also a mRNA one.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Zoraptor

[Bartimaeus]

3 hours ago, 213374U said:

Fun as this has been, I figure the thread has been derailed enough, and I'm willing to take my share of the blame for this. I'm asking members to continue any further bickering by PM.

I was going to report both of you while calling each of you belligerent dumb***es if it went any further, but I guess that works too, . The great thing about reports is that you can say anything you want in them. Right? ...Right?

Edited January 13, 2021 by Bartimaeus

[Hiro Protagonist]

An update on the post I linked with the Chinese Vaccine and Shanghai-based vaccine expert Tao Lina being quoted with 73 side effects including loss of vision.

According to the below news article from the Chinese state run GlobalTimes.cn, he was apparently misquoted.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1212084.shtml

Yeah, I would be backpedaling as fast as possible as well.

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, Hiro Protagonist said:

An update on the post I linked with the Chinese Vaccine and Shanghai-based vaccine expert Tao Lina being quoted with 73 side effects including loss of vision.

According to the below news article from the Chinese state run GlobalTimes.cn, he was apparently misquoted.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1212084.shtml

Yeah, I would be backpedaling as fast as possible as well.

China is famous for stealing IP and make inferior copy versions. "Made in China" is a meme all of its own after all (and well deserved IMHO)

Although to be fair, it may indeed be their own home brew vaccine. I still wonder who was doing all the hacking of Western vaccine research half a year ago. The kind of snooping I would normally expect either the Chinese, Israeli or Russian intelligence services to do.

On another Covid related note, Queensland (the Australian state where I live) seems to think that hotels are too risky to use for quarantine purposes. Yup, send those sick bastards to the salt mines!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-14/coronavirus-covid-brisbane-hotel-grand-chancellor-quarantine/13054282

Queensland considers mining camps for quarantining travellers with four new cases recorded

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said she would raise the matter with the Federal Government when national cabinet meets next Friday. 

"We are going to look at all options and one of those options is to look at some of the mining camps that we have in Queensland," she said.

 

Edit: the four new cases referred to (I assume they are part of the group of people currently in quarantine, as most cases reported in Australia these days are returning travelers from overseas):

Two cases were returned travellers from South Africa and two from the United States
 

[Zoraptor]

The Chinese vaccine isn't stolen, certainly not off a big name/ leading contender at least. It's an inactivated virus vaccine unlike the others. As a consequence of that it's not particularly effective- comparatively, it's still effective enough. It's entirely possible that he actually was misquoted or misquoting though, as it reads more like a list of ailments that could possibly have been related to the vaccine, rather than those that definitely were. A similar example would be the AZOxford trial being delayed when a guy got a rare nerve disease while on it. Some of the stuff in the article is definite sino bashing too, indemnity for the producer against being sued for side effects has been generally applied throughout the world, since it's accepted that they're rushed and not had the usual length/ depth of trial (eg, for Pfizer in the UK).

The allegation was that Russia was behind the hacking. Funny timing, as some of the data hacked got released today. I'd be somewhat amused if it was SVR/ FSB/ Spetzvyaz; stereotypical anime waifu avatar behind which hides a stereotypical Russian KGB goon.

Edited January 14, 2021 by Zoraptor

[Hiro Protagonist]

 

For a population of 25 million, Australia has ordered the following:

10 million Pfizer
50 million Oxford/AstraZeneca
50 million Novavax

Why do we need so many doses? Then again, why did we need to hoard toilet paper?

[Hiro Protagonist]

Scientists developing Covid-19 vaccine nasal spray.

https://www.miragenews.com/scientists-developing-covid-19-vaccine-nasal-spray/

[Gorth]

35 minutes ago, Hiro Protagonist said:

For a population of 25 million, Australia has ordered the following:

10 million Pfizer
50 million Oxford/AstraZeneca
50 million Novavax

I'm just guessing now... the BioNTech/Pfizer is because it's the most efficient and probably first on market. For those who need it first. People who get in contact with overseas travelers most likely. I.e. medical staff and quarantine staff. OxfordAstraZeneca because lets face it, the Northern Territories and -70C?

Novavax because the Oxford/AstraZeneca seems to be way less efficient than hoped at the time of ordering those?

 

Edit: Toilet paper is a status symbol. Something male Queenslanders hoard to impress prospective mating partners.