Politics 2020

[Malcador]

10 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

It was like watching two old men arguing at a shuffleboard court.

Someone explain to me how I'm "wasting" my vote again? Votes for those two are wasted. 

Guess it's wasted in the same way Bills or Leafs fan's life is wasted.

Edited September 30, 2020 by Malcador

[LadyCrimson]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

LadyC can I ask you a question as the one of the only women on this forum and you being American?

What dont you like about Biden and why do you prefer him over Trump?

Mmm I'm not the most super informed but in brief probably the environmental related and foreign policy stances would be the biggest ones.
Not that I think anything changes much in the long term since every President undoes "something" as well as doing "something". Most US elections are a lot of fanfare about nothing, in a way. It's just some years there are better choices for human's endless hopes.

Not issues related: Call me age-ist if you want, but I'm personally tired of old farts running for office, especially 1st term's. I'd prefer people 62 and under.

Edited September 30, 2020 by LadyCrimson

[Raithe]

 

[Guard Dog]

The worst presidential debate of all time

Quote

On Tuesday night the American people, or at least those unlucky millions who were not watching the Yankees-Indians game on ESPN instead, were subjected to an hour and a half of mindless shouting from two hapless sad-looking old men who looked as if they would rather be anywhere else but that auditorium in Ohio. President Trump also spoke.

 

In 118 days one of those two fools will be President of the United States. God help us all.

Anyone still think I'm crazy for wanting a small, weak central government? It certainly minimizes the damage that can be done by fools!

Edited September 30, 2020 by Guard Dog

[Pidesco]

12 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

The worst presidential debate of all time

 

In 118 days one of those two fools will be President of the United States. God help us all.

Anyone still think I'm crazy for wanting a small, weak central government? It certainly minimizes the damage that can be done by fools!

 

As a person that comes from a country where local government was a big thing, I can tell you that all that does is decentralize the foolishness. Every area gets its own little corrupt, incompetent leadership.

 

 

[Guard Dog]

13 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

 

As a person that comes from a country where local government was a big thing, I can tell you that all that does is decentralize the foolishness. Every area gets its own little corrupt, incompetent leadership.

 

 

True, but it answers to a smaller voter base. So, theoretically, it’s easier to manage and replace. Of course that still requires an informed and willing voting public. And the United States is coming up woefully short on that count as well.

[Gromnir]

9 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

It was like watching two old men arguing at a shuffleboard court.

Someone explain to me how I'm "wasting" my vote again? Votes for those two are wasted. 

you came away seeing what you wanted to see. eric swalwell saw as he wished to see.  hannity saw what he wanted to see. 

the only folks who mattered were the few undecideds and is not actual ez to predict what undecideds thought given how obscured is the political view in 2020. sadly, undecided does not mean reasonable or rational. have no idea what undecideds thought 'cause they is as crazy as is the rest o' the US, but more than a few o' 'em is improbable looking for a sign or a moment on their road to damascus. 

keep in mind, other than a few magic kingdom supplicants who refuse to believe any poll which doesn't have trump ahead by 101 points, trump is losing in key battleground states. election is not over, but trump is the guy who needs a few clear wins 'tween now and november. all biden had to do on tuesday were to not implode. however, even conservative pundits such as rick santorum and chris christie opined how trump did himself no favors during the debate. 

Trump Derails 1st Presidential Debate With Biden, And 5 Other Takeaways

gd wanted to see two old dogs fighting to exhaustion over a dirty old rug. as such, gd had to look past quite a bit to see what he wished to see. 

biden and wallace showed up to a debate and a one-man trump rally broke out instead and as such we saw a whole lotta folks critical o' chris wallace moderation.

am recalling an interview with fauci from mid march:

Q: Most everyone thinks that you’re doing a remarkable job, but you’re standing there as the representative of truth and facts, and things are being said that aren’t true and aren’t factual.

A: The way it happened is that after he made that statement [suggesting China could have revealed the discovery of a new coronavirus 3 to 4 months earlier], I told the appropriate people, it doesn’t comport, because 2 or 3 months earlier would have been September. The next time they sit down with him and talk about what he’s going to say, they will say, “By the way, Mr. President, be careful about this and don’t say that.” But I can’t jump in front of the microphone and push him down. OK, he said it. Let’s try and get it corrected for the next time.

what did folks want from wallace? he couldn't turn off the President's mic. he couldn't jump in front of the President and push him down. wallace's big mistake were announcing before the debate how he wanted to stay uninvolved and invisible. such an admission meant that the President could set tone and the real rules o' engagement with little interference from wallace. by the time wallace tried to regain control o' the debate, it were too late to do anything practical to force a reset.

regardless, the debate were bad. were not a good look for America. if gd wanna pretend as if all participants were equal responsible for the tuesday night massacre, then am gonna suggest he is seeing only what he wants to see.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Guard Dog]

I don’t know if I saw what I wanted to see so much as what I expected to see. Donald Trump was a boor and a jackass. He spouted off a whole lot  crap that wasn’t true. Like most all of it. Chris Wallace handed him a handful of opportunities to help himself and he didn’t avail himself of any of them. The only thing he in greater quantity  than hubris was hairspray. 
 

Joe Biden was slightly more truthful and actually had a message such as it was but his mind definitely wandered and he tended to put extra zeros on the numbers that he cited. He was visibly fatigued by the end of the night. But then again weren’t we all. He was also a little less than honest about the accomplishments of the Obama administration and the role he played in them. And if anybody doesn’t think that there’s something shady going on with his son and the governments of Russia and Ukraine then they really are gulliable.

Chris Wallace did as good a job as could be expected.

Which ever way the undecideds break and I expect it will break for Biden then it really is going to be a lesser evil choice. Neither of those two old men deserve to be the next president. The fact that they are so close to it says something terrible about us.

The Yankees beat the pine tar out of the Indians in game one of their playoff series last night and it probably still would’ve been more interesting to watch that.

there is only one reason I would rather not have Biden over Trump. And the reason has nothing to do with either of them. There is a very very good chance Congress will be completely controlled by the Democrats. I do not want to see a democrat president along with that. One party rule scares the bejesus out of me as it should any rational person

[HoonDing]

 

Goodbye, Amerika

[ComradeYellow]

9 hours ago, Raithe said:

 

 

[MedicineDan]

Yeah, the debate was crazy town.  I, personally, think Trump is in trouble.  The polls are not always right, but they tend not to be *that* wrong.  I agree with folks who think they're skewed right now, but I don't think the margin is that great.  Could be, though.  Crazy times and people are afraid to express support for Trump.  I unabashedly exhort folks to vote for the president, but, as you guys know, I'm eminently ignorable.  :rueful grin:  So, how far off are the polls?  Right now?  It's not as simple as that.  Apart from nonsense meant to muddy the waters, I was pretty much spot on about the state of the polls not only in 2016, but also 2018, which I'd stated before the election.  It's just that there wasn't a lot of surprise in 2018, other than ballot harvesting in CA turning a major defeat into a route.  That, and Trump is truly reviled in California so even though it looked like an Orange Co win for Republicans, the late ballot harvesting didn't have as far to go as if there had been sufficient excitement in the base to shore up the day.

All that said, I think the debate was better for Trump than Biden.  I don't think either "won" the debate.  In fact, they looked really bad.  However, the public already thinks Trump is bad.  The pundits who say he needs to soften that image to win...?  :scoff:  In one month?  Yeah, that's not going to happen.  Biden is supposed to be the nice guy.  Biden is supposed to be able to stand up to the crazies in his base.  Biden is supposed to return us to normal, so inasmuch as he starts yelling at people to shut up and and calling people names, he's no better than Trump.  I do think Trump went too far.  So what?  Who thought Trump wasn't going to go into the debate and throw everything including the bidet at his opponent?  Trump is a blunt instrument.  Biden is a dull one.  I think Trump hate may well win the day, but this debate didn't help Biden and may well have hurt him a little.  That's contrary to the assessment of the left and the right wing press, but it's my honest take.

[Zoraptor]

Yep, Trump's perception already being bad is the key factor.

Political pundits always seem to fall into the trap of thinking as political pundits instead of as voters in an unusual election. That's why they got the last election wrong consistently. Trump is an excellent campaigner (not an excellent candidate, he should lose to an Urkel plushie) because he knows what he has to do to win. His support base is at this stage rock solid, so his aim isn't so much to attract new votes but to suppress Biden's vote. In that respect having a bun fight is exactly the right move because it drags Biden down, not because it will get more people voting Trump.

Pundits and even polls saying Biden won aren't relevant, far more important are how many people it alienated who would have voted Biden before watching the debate.

[ComradeYellow]

^I have to counter that with "The Public" is not confined to Californian style cities, here in New England (Which is pretty solid Blue only because of the cities) Trump signs are quite common.  Lots of  rural whites have this sentimental attachment to him.  Yes, there's no logical or intelligent reason to support Trump, it is purely sentimental.  They're not very bright and he plays into their dull emotions quite well.

[Malcador]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/business/media/chris-wallace-debate-moderator.html

“I guess I didn’t realize — and there was no way you could, hindsight being 20/20 — that this was going to be the president’s strategy, not just for the beginning of the debate but the entire debate.”

Not quite sure he's on the mark about that.

 

 

[Gromnir]

1 hour ago, MedicineDan said:

Who thought Trump wasn't going to go into the debate and throw everything including the bidet at his opponent?  

almost nobody saw that coming. sure. we anticipated rude from trump. we anticipated a constant barrage o' lies. we expected at least a couple head scratcher moments. even so, that were the worst Presidential debate we has ever witnessed. not even a close second.

is so bizarre, 'cause is no way medicine dan predicts the reality o' tuesday night before the debate, but afterwards he excuses it. *chuckle* the only folks who were predicting trump would make such a complete arse o' himself were the folks who genuine hate trump and believe he is incapable o' any sorta self restraint. is the angry folks on the far left who were predicting such a display. 

so, which demographic that trump has been struggling with were helped by the debate performance? college educated women? working class women? older voters? on tuesday, trump solidified support from the proud boys. huzzah.

we do challenge medicine dan to show proof he got polls right in 2016, 'cause pretty much nobody did. lose popular vote by 3 million and still win electoral? say you think trump would win? not same. trump lost pretty much everywhere he were anticipated to lose. however, in three states trump managed a victory o' less than one percent. tens of thousand o' votes in wisconsin? was well w/i the margin o' error. in 2016, there were a large number o' undecideds heading into election night and hillary were unpopular. is not same situation at all this year as biden has been one o' the more consistent polling candidates in the history o' prez race polling, and the electorate as a whole has polarized considerable since 2016, with far fewer undecideds. 

biden is up between 9-10 points in pennsylvania. biden is up 4 in florida. etc.

if undecideds break the way they did in 2016, trump loses. if a few percentage points o' undecideds more vote for trump in 2020 than did in 2016 he still loses.

the mistake many is making is they see trump as the aberration for the polls in 2016. when you got so many polls wrong, you look for commonality and somehow many folks has decided to go brain stoopid and conclude trump is what made situation different. trump is a candidate in 2020 and were a candidate in 2016, therefore...

situation is much different than 2016. some differences work better for trump. others not so much. regardless, ain't trump which made 2016 different. were a collection o' factors, most o' which do not exist in 2020, which had polls off by just enough to be near universal wrong.

at the moment, trump needs to do more than solidify his base. tuesday night were not helping trump with any demographic he is fighting with biden over undecideds. even today's rasmussen poll had presidential disapproval worsen since yesterday. 

oh, and +200k covid-19 deaths. that and muslim ban should be enough. isn't, but should be.

am nevertheless not saying biden is certain to win. is a month left and who knows what new scandal changes the situation. am also recognizing how places such as wisconsin is close enough to the margin of error that the next +30 days could make a difference. is hardly a slam dunk and biden can't do as did hilary and assume a victory in the weeks before the election. 

oh, and speaking o' predictions, when @Guard Dog and others were chastising the media regarding their fear mongering regarding a peaceful transition o' power post election and the lengths trump would go to in an attempt to retain power, we mentioned...

we warned. 

HA! Good Fun!

[MedicineDan]

Fair enough, but the suggestion Biden is a better candidate is rubbish.  He's not even a candidate.  He's a self-proclaimed placeholder.  I never used to feel true animosity over politics until President Obama.  I prayed for his good health every day, but he, not Trump, was the real enemy of the press.  Seriously, look at the number of counter-espionage investigations during the Obama presidency.  He trained the IRS and FBI on his political opponents whom he described, on at least one occasions, as "enemies."  Trump says mean things about the press and people say he's the enemy.  Why hasn't that sunk him?  Because people believe it.  I might get a nonsensical, personal, and mentally dishonest attack for saying the truth, but people should at least recognize the truth.  The press is not trusted.  This is the all-in election.  This is not like the other "most important election."  This election, 2020, is the most important American election of our lifetimes.  If we win, we bring the press down.  Chaos will ensure, but that might be the door through which we might arrive at order.  Probably not.  We're probably screwed.

[Malcador]

And how are you going to be bringing "the press" down ?

[Pidesco]

29 minutes ago, MedicineDan said:

Fair enough, but the suggestion Biden is a better candidate is rubbish.  He's not even a candidate.  He's a self-proclaimed placeholder.  I never used to feel true animosity over politics until President Obama.  I prayed for his good health every day, but he, not Trump, was the real enemy of the press.  Seriously, look at the number of counter-espionage investigations during the Obama presidency.  He trained the IRS and FBI on his political opponents whom he described, on at least one occasions, as "enemies."  Trump says mean things about the press and people say he's the enemy.  Why hasn't that sunk him?  Because people believe it.  I might get a nonsensical, personal, and mentally dishonest attack for saying the truth, but people should at least recognize the truth.  The press is not trusted.  This is the all-in election.  This is not like the other "most important election."  This election, 2020, is the most important American election of our lifetimes.  If we win, we bring the press down.  Chaos will ensure, but that might be the door through which we might arrive at order.  Probably not.  We're probably screwed.

It's like you are posting from some alternate Earth. 

[Gromnir]

8 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

It's like you are posting from some alternate Earth. 

it may be disconcerting, but we recommend the occasional perusal o' fox and breitbart headlines. pick out a couple stories each week which based on just the headline strike you as utter implausible or obvious mistruth. read 'em. it will be difficult, but is worth the mental exercise. remember something near 30% o' the country is getting their news exclusive from such sites-- folks typical 65 and older or working class. 

am knowing that reading medicine dan posts feels like some kinda star trek mirror universe episode where pidesco slipped through a wormhole and you begin to realize something is off when you notice taylor swift is sporting a van dyke beard and 'stache. would be comforting if were mirror universe, but it ain't. just oro? just skarp_one? discount the obvious, but is not just them, eh?

is not alternate reality. is the "news" 30% o' americans is reading and believing and it is not a good idea to discount such folks 'cause unlike young and educated, the mirror universe populace votes. 

HA! Good Fun!

[ComradeYellow]

19 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

remember something near 30% o' the country is getting their news exclusive from such sites-- folks typical 65 and older or working class. 

This is false, and bordering dangerously close on class shaming.

https://www.dw.com/en/no-most-working-class-americans-did-not-vote-for-donald-trump/a-39471004

[Gromnir]

13 minutes ago, ComradeMaster said:

This is false, and bordering dangerously close on class shaming.

https://www.dw.com/en/no-most-working-class-americans-did-not-vote-for-donald-trump/a-39471004

sigh

underlied wrong word. shoulda' gone with "typical."

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/

trump voters are older and less educated. am not suggesting all uneducated or older voted trump, but the core o' his demographic is not in question. let folks play with numbers by factoring all non voters as those who don't support trump is gonna lead to obvious errors.

HA! Good Fun!

ps fox news demographics

 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Gromnir

[Zoraptor]

It's always amusing watching people say exactly the same things they said in 2016 now, when they were proven wrong then. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it and so far the pundit class- and to a large extent the Democratic Party- has repeated just about every mistake from last time.

Trump's strategy shouldn't be a winning one, but then his strategy in 2016 shouldn't have been a winning one either, but was. The big problem in getting proper analysis is that most pundits are inside the system and all orthodoxy related to that system- except the last election- says you should not campaign as Trump does.

The fundamental problem with the polls is that they analyse voting intentions, not what people will actually do. That debate played into Trump's hand because making the tepid Biden voter disengage is what would win him the election, attracting undecideds or getting people to swap votes is mere garnish. Trump only plays to the undecided voter on the most simple of levels, mostly by shouting about the economy which is always the big ticket item and how he's been tough on China and put America First etc. If every single undecided voter stayed not voting that's fine by Trump- after all, Biden doesn't gain then either- if he splits off the tepid Biden supporters too. Which he does by throwing dirt to make Biden look the same as him, by making the process as unattractive as possible- pie fight debates- and making sure Biden gets dragged into the pie throwing and alienates people wanting something more. If Trump is saying to the Biden supporter "he's just like me, really" and Biden ends up behaving like Trump in the debate it's a win for Trump.

Critically, most of the people turned off would still say that they're voting Biden if polled, they just won't when it comes down to it.

[Malcador]

I think people are overstating how much the debates affect things.  Also considering they're not in a vacuum, not sure Trump will make Biden appear the same as him.

[MedicineDan]

Yeah, *I'm* the one from an alternate earth.  *I'm* the one residing in the echo chamber.   :scoff:  Name the source of the test and I'll take the "information" challenge.  Actually, no time for the nonsense. :bemused smile:  Seriously, I've generally thought Grom was a decent enough guy, but his take on political reality is silly.  There are a couple of you chumps who surprise me with probing and predictive remarks.  Pidesco, you glorious bastard, are not among them.  Probably Zor or that one irritating fellow who apparently isn't around any more.  ...But, hey, I'm just an uneducated boomer!  lol

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016

Breaking it up into just 3 income brackets, under $50k voted much more for Clinton, $50-$100 preferred Trump by a bit, and over $100k were split. Less educated doesn't necessarily mean working class and the age difference probably has significance as well. As an electrician/residential appliance installer who works full time, I'm below the $50k and from what I've seen most millennials and zoomers in working class jobs are as well.

Trump's biggest lead (aside from party and ideology) is white people and men, which I'd reckon is a bigger predictor for reading Breitbart and watching FOX than being old or uneducated. My dad is one such fella, he thinks the pandemic is fake news and that climate change is just the world tipping on its axis.