Politics and Statesmenship: A Forum Special Report

[majestic]

9 hours ago, Lexx said:

Bitcoin is still a thing?

The underlying technology is really interesting and has a lot of potentially useful applications. That the public face of it are wildly fluctuating crypto currencies with a host of hacking issues, chain splits, fraud and insane power drain is unfortunate to say the least. 

 

[Pidesco]

On 5/10/2019 at 7:51 PM, Malcador said:

The Internet was a terrible idea.

 

Synchronicity at work.

 

 

The notion that a guy with that voice made a career out of just speaking seriously, still kind of amazes me. It's like if Gilbert Gottfried made a career out of presenting solemn occasions. Not that Shapiro is in any way alone in this regard. The number of youtubers my kid follows with incredibly grating voices is not small though. Apparently, a grating voice is now the new normal. Perhaps soon all voice over narrators will have annoying voices as a new standard.

 

"And now a documentary on PTSD victims of war, narrated by Gilbert Gottfried. Right after, enjoy Fran Drescher reading 1984."

[BruceVC]

On 5/10/2019 at 7:51 PM, Malcador said:

The Internet was a terrible idea.

 

Synchronicity at work.

 

 

Shapiro is not very good at addressing his own misplaced, historical comments or at least just admitting he was wrong and leaving it at that. I noticed he resorts to personal attacks on the BBC journalist when he is vexed, this demonstrates his impulsiveness and lack of self-control

Also as mentioned by others I wish people would stop labeling Youtube debates as "  person X destroys person Y" , they do this  with Jordan Peterson and it creates at times a  myopic and unnecessary dichotomy where some people will immediately dismiss one side because his side " was destroyed "  instead of only judging the debate after watching it 

[Malcador]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 At a meeting of President Trump’s top national security aides last Thursday, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan presented an updated military plan that envisions sending as many as 120,000 troops to the Middle East should Iran attack American forces or ccelerate work on nuclear weapons, administration officials said.

The revisions were ordered by hard-liners led by John R. Bolton

 

 

Edited May 14, 2019 by Malcador

[BruceVC]

33 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 

Iran is responsible indirectly for the recent attacks on UAE and Saudi oil targets through there proxy support of the Houthi rebels in Yemen  who have claimed responsibility for the drone attacks, Iran has denied involvement but I dont believe it 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/saudi-arabia-says-its-oil-pipelines-are-under-attack-from-drones

 

[smjjames]

The Ayatollah said that he doesnt want war, which is all well and good, but the danger isn’t necessarily one side or the other intentionally goading the other or using a flimsy causus belli, it’s escalation spiralling out of control or mistakes leading to escalation. WWI is a pretty good case study in that. Not the only one, obviously, but it’s one that comes to mind. 

[BruceVC]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/alabama-abortion-law-passed-alabama-passes-near-total-abortion-ban-with-no-exceptions-for-rape-or-incest-2019-05-14/

Im very disappointed with this decision from the Alabama senate to pass this severe  anti-abortion  law, I see this going to the Supreme Court 

 

[Guard Dog]

[Guard Dog]

There was a pretty good article in the Atlantic this week about former justice John Paul Stevens and his biggest regret in his career being the Heller decision.  It's worth a read: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/05/john-paul-stevens-court-failed-gun-control/587272/

 

Obviously I completely disagree with his reasoning. A prefatory clause changes nothing about a subsequent operative clause IMO. People like Peanut Butter sandwiches, the right of the people to buy peanut butter shall not be infringed. Well, if bread were no longer available there won't be any more peanut butter sandwiches. But you still can't stop folks from buying peanut butter. There were three things I took away from this:

• If a judge realizes that X is legal and X is also bad, it's not just acceptable to overlook the legality of X and rule against it, it's a judge's duty to do so. That is so very wrong. He also says this in the same paragraph as he laments the courts intrusion into the world of the legislature. That is a bit of a conflict if you ask me.
• He is consistent. You have to give him some credit for that. In Heller, Kelo, Midkiff, and others he has always held that the legislature does no wrong (my words not his). Being Democratically elected they can take anything from anyone for any reason so to speak. I bet he has a framed portrait of Thomas Hobbes somewhere in his home. 
• This one is the most ironic IMO. He laments the court did not find for the District of Columbia in deference to the precedent set in United States vs Miller. In that case the court decided a sawed off shotgun is illegal because the government CAN ban weapons that have no use in a "well regulated militia". The irony is an AR-15 is a weapon appropriate for militia use. As well as the many AK variants out there. Had he gotten his way is would be even harder to ban the weapons people seem to want banned the most. In the majority decision on Heller there is more wiggle room for legislative restrictions (short of prohibition) than there might have been if he actually swayed Kennedy or Thomas to his way of thinking. 

I've got to give his book a read. It might be interesting. 

[Lexx]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/state-department-orders-emergency-government-employees-iraq/story?id=63046559

How long until Retardica starts the next war it won't win?

[213374U]

Iran needs to take a page from NK and get the bomb by yesterday.

[Gfted1]

What is winning a war nowadays? We don't have any interest in occupation or resources, so it seems bombing someone to rubble effectively removes them from the world stage anyway.

[Pidesco]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

This is relevant to the possibility of war between the US and Iran.

[ShadySands]

^Not sure it's all that relevant since we went ahead and actually invaded Iraq a year later. Better to look at how well that worked out.

 

 

[smjjames]

13 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

This is relevant to the possibility of war between the US and Iran.

Eh? If they're going to make Iran use WWII tech, then the US needs to use WWII tech. That's not how you do a proper wargame. If you wanted to see if you could beat a WWII tech adversary to stroke your ego, sure, but nobody is at that level, not even terrorists.

 

3 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

^Not sure it's all that relevant since we went ahead and actually invaded Iraq a year later. Better to look at how well that worked out.

Not to mention that Iran is much bigger, something like three times bigger.

25 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

What is winning a war nowadays? We don't have any interest in occupation or resources, so it seems bombing someone to rubble effectively removes them from the world stage anyway.

Resources? Donald "We should have pillaged Iraqs oil!" Trump would have you think otherwise.

[Gfted1]

Just now, smjjames said:

Resources? Donald "We should have pillaged Iraqs oil!" Trump would have you think otherwise.

As would most of the internet forum "think tanks" who love to trot out that line, but reality does not bear that out. Weve invaded the crap out of the middle east for almost 30 years and I just paid $3.19 / gallon for my gas. What the hell! No doubt the pipeline from Iraq to the US is held up indefinitely in environmental court over the plight of the one-winged ME sparrow.

So back to "winning" a war. If that country is going to need a decade just to return to flushing crappers, is that a "win"?

[ShadySands]

I just think that Iraq and Afghanistan provide better insights into a conflict with Iran than a flawed war game does.  I don't think anyone doubts that the US would steamroll Iran's military but the big problem is what comes next.  Occupation Peacekeeping and nation-building is where we start ****ting the bed. 

[Gfted1]

Agreed, we are terribad at that.

It makes me wonder if Japan and Germany were just dumb luck wrt rebuilding after WWII. Or maybe Western and ME mindsets are too far apart to work together?

[smjjames]

34 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Agreed, we are terribad at that.

It makes me wonder if Japan and Germany were just dumb luck wrt rebuilding after WWII. Or maybe Western and ME mindsets are too far apart to work together?

Well, theres two major differences though, one is that we never tried to occupy Japan (well, the main islands at least), and two, Germany and the rest of Europe had the Marshall Plan, I don't think we ever did any sort of comprehensive Marshall Plan-like thing for Iraq.

It may have been partially dumb luck, but there are lots of differences between those situations and the ME.

Edited May 15, 2019 by smjjames

[Pidesco]

58 minutes ago, smjjames said:

Eh? If they're going to make Iran use WWII tech, then the US needs to use WWII tech. That's not how you do a proper wargame. If you wanted to see if you could beat a WWII tech adversary to stroke your ego, sure, but nobody is at that level, not even terrorists.

 

The point is thst they didn't beat the old tech, they got trounced. 

[smjjames]

2 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

The point is thst they didn't beat the old tech, they got trounced. 

Actually, re-reading that, it looks like he wasn't forced to use WWII tech, but rather resorted to it in order to get around 'Blue', so, more of a lack of imagination on 'Blue's part.

[Gfted1]

Uh oh, now everyone with internet access knows how to defeat the US! Or General Riper outfoxed Blue team. Hmm, I wonder what it could be. 

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

It makes me wonder if Japan and Germany were just dumb luck wrt rebuilding after WWII. Or maybe Western and ME mindsets are too far apart to work together?

No threat of soviet union to keep people in line this time.

Being the lesser evil helps enormously.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, ShadySands said:

I just think that Iraq and Afghanistan provide better insights into a conflict with Iran than a flawed war game does.  I don't think anyone doubts that the US would steamroll Iran's military but the big problem is what comes next.  Occupation Peacekeeping and nation-building is where we start ****ting the bed. 

Your post highlights the biggest practical concern with an invasion of Iran. Once the Iranian army is defeated, which will indubitably happen, then what? The best way to deal with the militancy of Iran and its destabilizing influence in the region is a sustained bombing campaign but that comes with its own set of problems, like  what would the end goal be?

The last thing you want is " boots on the ground "  and any kind of military occupation as that would be a logistical and economic nightmare for the USA and the region, it would be calamitous for the oil price ( which needs to be a serious concern for all of us ) and it would exacerbate sectarian violence in the broader ME...so that kind of military operation would be myopic and counter productive unless we have clearly defined objectives of what is needed to be achieved 

[Gfted1]

Doesn't the rest of the world realize that they merely have to purchase the Chinese CARRIER KILLER and the US will never be able to leave its shores again. That reminds me of the bogeyman antiship missile of my era, the fearsome sea skimming, unstoppable Exocet.