nfl 2019-2020

[Keyrock]

If he can keep up this year's blistering pace, he can do it in less than 9 years. I believe in you, Jameis.

Edited January 7, 2020 by Keyrock

[Gromnir]

7 hours ago, Mannock said:

First of all, no, it was not a deep QB class last year. I mean not if you compare it to the year before that when you had 4-5 highly rated QBs. The QBs of last year were not graded to be better than the year before and to my recollection most people agreed that last year was a thin class going into february 2019.

Regarding mock drafts that projects so and so many QBs going high in the draft doesn't have to correlate with talent, but rather an indication of how important the position is on a team and the teams at times being desperate for a new flagship. *cough* Daniel Jones to Giants *cough* 

You can have concerns just about anything you want. My point is that before Murray a lot experts/GMs/what have you had an idea that you can't pick a QB at the #1 spot if he's 5'10. But the Cards did just that with Murray so now the bar has been raised (or lowered in this case) whether anyone likes it or not. Hence it's not that huge of a deal Tua being 6'1 as it was before.

Again, his major red flag is his injury (and injury history). Fair enough, we were down to the Bucs and not talking about dropping out of round 1. Personally, I still feel good about Miami taking him (if no other team has taken him before that of course). In about four months we will know.

 

use 2018 as a benchmark for qb drafts is fair how? 2018 were being compared to 1983 by some overzealous prognosticators. four qb going top ten is not normal. have potential six going first round is not normal.

please.

and of course qbs are picked earlier than their talent alone would warrant. there is a reason quenton nelson  were not an overall 1-2 pick in spite of being a consensus 1-2 talent in the draft. guard is considered a less important position than just 'bout everything other than punter and pk. converse, qb is considered more important. fact qbs tend to be picked earlier than they deserve to be is a constant, or at least a constant since the passing game became so important in the nfl. 

comparing murray and tagovailoa height is an apples and oranges situation. murray is an athletic and mobile qb. tua is a pure pocket passer. pretend as if murray's athleticism did not factor into the decision o' gms to overlook the height issue is myopic. act as if murray's height makes tua's irrelevant is hardly an honest equivalency.

also, four months has nothing to do with our observations. hindsight is always perfect. we already opined how we personal believe tagovailoa is a top ten talent, so if he goes top ten am hardly gonna be surprised. however, today is january 7th, and at this time last year haskins were considered to be the top qb prospect available and a sure-fire top-ten pick... and not in a particular thin qb class neither. look at the top ten lists from experts in january and then compare to the actual draft; makes the experts look comic fallible. is amazing how fluid such lists are pre-combine and pre senior bowl and pre pro-days. 

as o' january 7, tagovailoa has too many question marks to be a guaranteed top ten guy. he is short (likely shorter than his measured height). he is product o' alabama. he is recovering from a gruesome injury and has suffered multiple serious concussions. maybe you are certain tua goes top seven, but such certainty is 'cause you are ignoring questions. yeah, perhaps such questions get answers which nfl gms find satisfying, but at the moment tagovailoa's projected pick spot is one o' the bigger uncertainties o' the first round, more so than were uncertainty surrounding haskins at same time last year.

38 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

He will have to step it up a bit. Farve threw 336. JW has 88 so far so he needs 248 more. He's averaging 17.6 per season so he will need 14 more seasons.  

well, if winston can become a regular starter instead o' needing split time with his backup like in 2017 and 2018, then perhaps he can shorten the timeline o' ignominy. am personal thinking it will be tough to recapture the magic of a 30 int season, but am hopeful that with a little effort, consistent +20 int seasons is possible.

please note thin-veiled sarcasm.

am admitting our pre-draft concerns for winston were off-the-field issues. yeah, winston has hardly been a model citizen since he entered the nfl, but for all the winston related shenanigans, he has missed few games because o' his immaturity.  converse, if you had told us winston would become a history challenging int machine in his 5th season and the bucs would nevertheless be ambivalent 'bout signing him to a 6th year, we would assume you were making a joke at our expense. 

a game ending pick six to reach 30/30? really?

fa alternatives for 2020 include drew brees, tom brady, phillip rivers and teddy bridgewater, but does it make sense for tampa to pay big money to be a bit better for one or two years?

can't believe we would recommend keeping mr. 30/30, but am just not seeing enough upside to looking for a replacement via fa. perhaps tb acquires phillip rivers and he manages a brilliant swan song season or two. maybe even reach first round of the playoffs. maybe. just prolonging the rebuild. so as crazy as it seems, stick with winston for one more year might be the smart move... unless tagovailoa drops to the bucs, which is indeed possible. as much as we like tua as a qb, am believing he has even more value as a high character guy, and am believing having such a player as a team leader would be a nice change for tampa bay. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

 

[Guard Dog]

If I was Jason Licht I'd let JW walk, use the Franchise Tag on Kwon Alexander then see if one of the free agent QB's will take a two year deal. Rivers might. Then draft a QB in the 2nd Rounf. Someone like Fromm from UGA. might work

[Gromnir]

39 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

If I was Jason Licht I'd let JW walk, use the Franchise Tag on Kwon Alexander then see if one of the free agent QB's will take a two year deal. Rivers might. Then draft a QB in the 2nd Rounf. Someone like Fromm from UGA. might work

we wouldn't be concerned 'bout a long-term deal. for example, give rivers a 4-year deal doesn't mean rivers is guaranteed on the roster for four years. pretty much any free agent qb can be cut which will limit cap hit.  yeah, the contracts can be serious front-loaded and have all kinda promises on 'em, but one o' the things players is understandably unhappy 'bout is how there aren't long-term contracts to which the owners is bound. give a fa a multi-year contract doesn't necessitate more than a one-year hit. 

fromm is a second-round guy (latest actual has him slipping to possible third) but he hasn't declared for the draft. from our understanding, jordan love received a better projection from the nfl than did fromm, so is current five guys rated higher than fromm. worse is fact fromm's completion % were kinda suboptimal this year and nfl worthy accuracy concerns became a frequent question regarding the georgia qb-- is a truism that qbs do not become more accurate once they get to the nfl. today might be the day he actual announces stay-or-go, so gd should stay tuned.

'course am not seeing fromm (or similar) as a bigger risk than winston. get fromm with a relative cheap rookie contract and the tb organization buys themselves a free year as fans will accept a rough rookie season. tb needs a body at qb and there is potential upside with any o' the rookies available in the first few rounds. regardless, am anticipating a rough year for the bucs offense... unless they get the aforementioned rivers, at which point the season is a crapshoot. 

HA! Good Fun!

[Volourn]

"Speaking of which I do hope he has the sense to retire if the Pats don't want him. The saddest things I've ever seen in sports is star athletes who hung on too long. Michael Jordan  missing a dunk by a good six inches wearing a Wizards uniform. Gordie Howe, his hair full gray, getting outskated by referees while playing for the Whalers. His team faced 5-4 mismatches every shift he played because he just couldn't get to the zone as fast. Johnny Unitas, a shell of his former self with the Chargers. Dan Marino on two bad knees getting blown out by the Jaguars. Don't become a parody of who you once were Tom. Walk out with your head held high.   "

 

The saddest thing I've seenm in sports is when athletes have to read/listen to asanine 'advice' like this. Brady should play as long as he wants to and as long as an employer wants to pay. He owes the Pats' ****. If they throw him in the trash he owes them less than ****. If you think Brady isn't deserving of a starting QB job next season you don't know football. PERIOD.

[Hurlshort]

Agree with Volo on this. Play as long as you've still got the fire and can still get a job. Ricky Henderson played in the minors at the end and I loved his passion for the game.

[Gromnir]

gd could believe brady is deserving o' a starting position somewhere in the nfl while nevertheless recognizing how legacy will be diminished if brady goes out and underperforms. correction:  if brady underperforms again.

will brady 2020 be better than david blough and the aforementioned jameis winston? probable. would be worth it if brady is challenging trubisky for qbr numbers? 

brady is gonna want big money, 'cause is 'bout respect (*groan*) and if the pats don't pay him, we expect he goes elsewhere and maybe overperforms for a season before complete burning out in the ugly sorta way gd mentions.  tom has already said the pats ain't getting a hometown discount. 

if brady signs with a playoff talented team, we wouldn't be surprised if his competitive nature ekes out another great season. can almost foresee jerry jones cutting bait with dak and signing brady. *chuckle* as loony as it sounds, and as financial improbable as it would be, we could imagine such being beneficial to both brady and the cowboys, but am not recognizing how such a marriage could last beyond maybe one miracle season. 

only other realistic option for success we see is the chargers. is enough talent for the chargers to win immediate if they have a qb such as brady or brees (irony) but does anybody see brees leaving the saints? so...

colts might be a complete under-the-radar option. colts were looking like potential playoff contenders before luck retired. however, there isn't anybody to throw to in indy. 

regardless, we believe brady is good enough to start many places next year, and likely losing ugly. brady needs decide if playing in 2020 is worth the pain he is gonna need endure, pain which he may not fully comprehend until 20 years from today. brady is already guaranteed hof and in best evar arguments now and for many decades to come, but brady didn't look like best in nfl, conference or even best in division this last year. for the second half o' 2019, brady were arguable the third best qb in the afc east. 

gd observed a bunch o' best evar athletes who no doubt knew with absolute certainty that they could dominate for another season or two. the unshakable self confidence which made those guys great also prevents too many of 'em from recognizing when they should hang up their skates, sneakers, cleats or helmet. 

maybe a non-pitcher in baseball is an exception? is all kinda dh guys who prolong a career a bit. 

regardless, unlike gd, we hope brady arm-bars kraft into a big contract. am not a pats fan, so while we would feel sympathy for brady getting knocked around for a couple more seasons in spite of increasing futility, we would take admitted petty glee in seeing the pats, and their fans, needing endure a couple o' quick-start and slow-death seasons we predict as likely if brady remains as the quarterback of new england.

so, bring back brady in 2020. heck, bring back brady through 2024.

at the moment, this guy is the top rated prep qb for 2021, so perhaps the pats are thinking ahead.

full disclosure: am not a fan o' brock in spite o' the hoopla. he is an arm thrower (needs to learn to use lower body) with odd mechanics and little economy o' release. 

HA! Good Fun!

[Volourn]

Want the pats to be screwed? Then have Brady play for somebodye else because the way they redid his contract means they'd have about 13mil of 'dead money' next season. L0L

[Gromnir]

$13.5 million actually, and $6.75 in 2021, which is hardly team crippling and is far less baggage than the pats would need handle if brady gets his way and new england gives him a contract for at least the next three years at a rate he feels is commensurate with his talent.

if brady doesn't provide a significant hometeam discount, then wash him off today to save tomorrow.

3rd best qb by year end in the afc east. should be end o' the discussion.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Mannock]

Can't help laugh at the spot Giants have put themselves in. Two years ago it was evident they needed to plan for life after Eli. With a thick QB class and at a draft spot of #2 they were in perfect position to pick a QB. And of course they take a RB. Last year was a thin QB class, they had a bit worse draft spot but at that point they gathered they needed to pick a QB regardless and took Daniel Jones, perhaps not the biggest QB prospect of the century, to put it mildly.

And this year they're at the #4 spot in the draft. Ahead of them is the Lions and the Redskins who most likely won't draft a QB (but you never know of course). Bengals will probably take Joe Burrow (also not a certainty) so it's not impossible that a QB like Tua could be there at #4. What will the Giants do? 

Whatever they end up doing, it will look like a mess regardless. The GM of the Giants should get an award for bungling things up. 

[Keyrock]

^ Maybe it's a New York thing? The J E T S Jets Jets Jets don't exactly have a sparkling record of draft picks and trades. Furthermore, over on the hoopsphere side of things, the Knicks are the posterchild for baffling drafting, questionable trades, and crippling contracts. The Nets aren't far behind them in those categories.

 

[Guard Dog]

On ‎1‎/‎7‎/‎2020 at 3:23 PM, Gromnir said:

we wouldn't be concerned 'bout a long-term deal. for example, give rivers a 4-year deal doesn't mean rivers is guaranteed on the roster for four years. pretty much any free agent qb can be cut which will limit cap hit.  yeah, the contracts can be serious front-loaded and have all kinda promises on 'em, but one o' the things players is understandably unhappy 'bout is how there aren't long-term contracts to which the owners is bound. give a fa a multi-year contract doesn't necessitate more than a one-year hit. 

HA! Good Fun!

You know I keep forgetting that about the NFL. I follow baseball much more than football and in the MLB a 4 year deal means a 4 year deal. The player might be traded but someone is paying them for all four years. Even if they are released. The Marlins just released Wei Yin Chen after three abysmal seasons. But, he had a five year deal so he is getting his last two years. 

[Keyrock]

Niners

Ravens

Chiefs

Packers

[ShadySands]

Yeah, the NFL has the worst contracts of the big three (NFL, NBA, MLB).

I think it's kinda sad since they also have the shortest careers, lowest salaries, and are also the most injury prone of the three on average. 

[Gfted1]

Injury is probably one of the main reasons NFL contract aren't guaranteed. Outside of some freak accident no other sport carries "career ending" risks. Why would anyone guarantee 100M+ when one hit could end it all? It could be argued that some "injury guarantee" should be in the contract. I too wish that my salary was guaranteed but if I get hurt and cant work...well, you know.

[ShadySands]

Not many players get that kind of money though and I'd just recommend shorter contracts for people you're going to give insane amounts of money to. I know the rosters are much larger but the salaries are also much, much lower.  

But I'm pro player in general so I am biased on the matter

[Bartimaeus]

@Mannock I don't know about you, but even though the Packers should be favored in pretty much every matchup besides QB, I'm still having PTSD flashbacks to that 2014 NFCCG.

@Injuries: One thing I'd like to see is the cap being adjusted for time lost to injuries. Something with a lot of conditions like if a guy is injured pre-season (or near the end of a season) and loses the entire ensuing regular season, don't count his salary against the cap at all, while maybe if they're lost for the season mid-season, count the games lost only half against the cap (half is better than nothing, but it's "only" half to reduce gaming the system which I'm sure teams would do with minor injuries if they got the full number back), etc. The cap is so, so important to constructing a football team that having a couple of key injuries can absolutely cripple a team, so it'd be nice to make the team's job a little easier on this front in at least regards to injuries.

Edited January 9, 2020 by Bartimaeus

[Gromnir]

biggest factor is guaranteed contracts hasn't been a big enough priority for players. players have an opportunity to change the dynamic each time collective bargaining agreement is renegotiated, and the players, as a whole, have not made it a priority. last cycle were when everybody thought there would be additional guarantees for players, but instead the long-term vets managed to make sure priorities were for long-term vets, and the young players got screwed. oh, and no players wanted olympic drug testing and as soon as the owners put such testing on the table, the players caved like a matchstick house in a tornado. owners were actual offering guarantees, but they also insisted on olympic testing. is the nflpa who killed guarantees just so long as owners would abandon their insistence on olympic testing. 

size o' roster is likely the second biggest factor.  after all, the average player is only in the league for 3.5 years anyway, and is less 'bout injuries as is simple 'bout keeping players only as long as necessary. nfl has, by far, the biggest rosters o' any professional sport. players become injured in sports, but bad luck o' a large number o' career ending injuries can cripple a team for a long time, which would be bad for the product. 'course is arguable 'cause o' particular small size, guarantees is even more debilitating to an nba team with injuries.  difference is proportion o' superstars and relative leverage. to sell seats and merchandise, an nfl team needs one or two star players on a roster o' 53. nba needs same number o' superstars but has a roster o' 15.  is so much easier for nfl to negotiate with the nflpa 'cause so few players is superstars. size of roster dilutes the power o' superstars.

is particular problematic 'cause the average nfl player is young and... unwise? last collective bargaining cycle, few players saved money in anticipation of being w/o game checks. huh? the rookies who knew collective bargaining were coming instead o' creating a war chest went out and bought cars, and houses for mom, and bling. both vet players and the nfl could squeeze the younger players 'cause young and unwise were desperate to get back on the field, whereas the 10 year vets could afford to wait. 

vet players screwed younger players during the last collective bargaining agreement... and then the owners screwed vet players by shifting more towards keeping their rosters youth heavy. no surprise.  is predictable the owners will look out for themselves, but last collective bargaining had vets not looking out for young players, which should be kinda the point o' collective bargaining. vets were more concerned with getting bigger contracts and avoiding olympic drug testing than they were with guarantees.

will see what happens this time, but league is even younger today with players more vulnerable to missed game checks. who here thinks 2020 players will be smart and build war chest in anticipation o' collective bargaining? is gonna once again be on nfl superstars to demand guarantees and to help younger players survive lean time? if so, what do you believe will happen?

HA! Good Fun!

[Guard Dog]

Not much has been said about the upcoming NFLPA contract. What are the players even asking for? The MLBPA one is next year. There has been a lot of ink about that. But two of their big wants are things that just make a hell of a lot of sense to me. They want to eliminate draft pick compensation for 1st time free agents. And they want an offseason trade deadline. They also want to include foreign born players in the MLB draft but that will be a much harder sell.

[ShadySands]

25 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

will see what happens this time, but league is even younger today with players more vulnerable to missed game checks. who here thinks 2020 players will be smart and build war chest in anticipation o' collective bargaining? is gonna once again be on nfl superstars to demand guarantees and to help younger players survive lean time? if so, what do you believe will happen?

I doubt anything will change there unless it becomes a large enough issue in both the locker room and in the public to actually push for it

I also liked Bartimaeus idea of injured player's salaries not counting against the cap. I guess I'd be onboard for a potentially reduced salary for those players if that's what it takes but would also like some limits there like a minimum salary

GD - I haven't heard a peep

 

[Volourn]

My predictions:

 

MIN

BAL

KC

GB

 

The NFC ones are coinflippers, but the AFC one should be virtual no doubters.

[Gromnir]

four (five) issues we seen getting mention for 2021 collective bargain:

18 game season *insert eyeroll here*

revenue sharing

post career player health care 

franchise tag and rookie contract duration

there doesn't appear to be much resistance to the idea of increasing player health care benefits after they end their careers, so that is good news, but league responsibility and payments regarding cte related stuff may require negotiation. however, should be ez to work at least basic increased standardized health benefits into the cba. 

a fifth issue, which is also sorta a non-issue but even more so is marijuana testing. am suspecting the league either drops penalization o' mj use but keeps testing, or drops testing and punishment altogether. again, doesn't appear to be any real resistance from players or owners.

HA! Good Fun!

[Volourn]

Why would you bother testing for marijuana if there is no punishment for it? That seems like a waste of time, effort, and money.

[Gromnir]

12 minutes ago, Volourn said:

Why would you bother testing for marijuana if there is no punishment for it? That seems like a waste of time, effort, and money.

is a relevant health care issue. the results o' testing would necessarily be confidential, but understand % of players using marijuana could provide beneficial data. like it or not, marijuana has effects 'pon developing brains, and brain development may occur well into mid-20s.  young players, the age group ironic most likely to use marijuana, is the only nfl players who face any real danger from marijuana use.

HA! Good Fun!

[ShadySands]

I can see them doing that but it seems better to study that in people who aren't constantly risking concussions and CTE unless your point is to study it in banged up brains. My opinion overall is that marijuana should be legal regulated like tobacco and alcohol but I'm also all for studying it further. I know way too many people who think it's some kind of panacea with absolutely no adverse effects.