kanisatha

Yes I do. That you don't, in the face of what are extremely credible reports from multiple sources, is troubling.

Yes I've seen these stories too, including first-hand reports documented by human rights groups operating inside Ukraine. Putin's propaganda campaign to villify the Ukrainian people coupled with their vaunted military prowess being mocked the world over has clearly pushed many Russian soldiers over the top. In so many reports the civilian deaths are not accidental but deliberate. They're literally pointing their weapons at innocent civilians and opening fire.

I've been reading several similar articles from a variety of sources in the past few days. Hard to tell what's real and what's part of the information war. But historially, political intrigue and backstabbing are synonymous with the Kremlin, so ....

It is because Russia doesn't want to acknowledge all those countries standing against their invasion, so they are deliberately focusing on only a small subset of those countries as the "unfriendly" countries, all the more so they can simultaneously emphasize the 47 countries that either abstained or did not vote as countries that are with them (even though there is zero evidence to support any such claim).

You mean after Russia was caught cheating or abusing each of these treaties? The real question is why did the US continue to stick with these treaties for as long as they did. That Russia cannot be trusted has been demonstrated again and again, especially in the Putin years.

I have a theory about this. I do not believe the Russians are serious about allowing civilians to leave eastern Ukraine because, for all the nonsense-talk from them, the real reason they want eastern Ukraine is to take control of that population for Russia. The single biggest threat to Russia's future power is domestic demographics. Their population is in steep decline and has been for over 20 years. They desperately need people. But of course given their ultra-nationalism, they only want ethnic Russians. This war is less about a land-grab and much more about a population-grab. So they cannot afford to allow people in eastern Ukraine to leave. And let's be honest. The people fleeing the Russians are not just Ukrainians. Plenty of very credible reports that the ethnic Russians in these areas (Kherson for example) are openly siding with Ukraine and stating very categorically they do not want to live under Putin's rule.

The "deal" being offered by Russia is a horrible deal, one Ukraine should never accept. But, if it is indeed just Russia's opening bid, and Russia is open to meaningful negotiations in which they are willing to give Ukraine certain things, then diplomacy has a chance. But we all know that Putin only operates on the basis of take-it-or-leave-it dictates, so I am skeptical anything will come of this. I do hope I am wrong.

Did I not say here that Shoigu may rebel against Putin? And now, if Putin is trying to scapegoat him, he has that much more reason to try a coup. He has nothing to lose. He's dead whether he doesn't do anything or he tries a coup and loses.

Yup, it's the one silver lining in all of this. I was genuinely concerned that in a NATO-Russia war we actually stood to potentially lose. Not anymore. Even a woefully unprepared and squabbling with each other NATO would utterly crush the Russians (which of course would then cause them to use tac nukes to save their sorry asses). I mean, that 40 mi. convoy broken down and stuck in mud is a humiliating disgrace. If only we would transfer an MLRS battery to the Ukrainians. That convoy would be obliterated in short order.

Or it could just be their pilots can't operate very well at night, they're too vulnerable to SAMs during the day, their aircraft have very low serviceability, and they've run out of their PGMs, so they decided that since civilian casualties was never something they cared about anyway they would just use their artillery to indiscriminately destroy everything.

Yes indeed. Let me fix that tweet for everyone's benefit: BREAKING: Russia plants ... er, oh sorry *finds* "NATO equipment" at the headquarters of a Ukrainian nazi group ....

Well the main issue though is why, with over 300 tactical aircraft in the theater, they are flying so very few sorties per day (since the first couple of days). Seems their overall aviation situation has some huge question marks attached to it.

As a fellow realist I know Mearsheimer's work very well. But he's a bit of an oddball ... and also somewhat of a Russia apologist. His "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" is a classic in the field of international relations. It was mandatory reading in grad school for me. His more recent books have been mandatory in some of my classes for my students.

US and UK defense officials have asked this same question, and their projection is that Russia does not have a good supply of PGMs, that its best munitions are held only in very small quantities, and they have already exhausted their supply or else don't want to exhaust what little they still have. So they have now switched to unguided munitions, and are trying to make up for the loss in capability by using thermobaric bombs and cluster munitions.

Fair enough. I shouldn't have been so absolute.

I LOVE that they send you a pretty kitty!!!

Haha, you beat me to it. I was going to say exactly this. Yes the costs of standing and fighting against an invader are always very high, and have been that way since the beginning of human settlements. But as the old saying goes, "I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees." There are so many things worse than dying, and living under Russian domination is one of those things for sure.

Yeah that is definitely a very rosy approach to teaching history, not only in covering up the true nature of communism all over the world but also in the completely false spin about capitalism. But if you are a leftist this is the only thing you can do, because simply providing facts and letting people decide for themselves would completely decimate all support for leftist ideas. It happens quite a bit in schools and especially universities in the West too (universities are the only places in the West you can still find idiot Marxists). But because in the West you also have alternative information available, the ability to brainwash people is considerably less effective.

I have to be honest that I am very worried about the possibility of Owlcat being forced to close down on account of conditions inside Russia. I can even see many Owlcat employees deciding to get out of Russia while they still can, before leaving the country gets banned. Owlcat's games are the ones I love the most of all the RPGs being made right now, and it will suck if they're no more. I hope they can ride this out, but I am very pessimistic.

Being under Russian domination is the worst possible outcome for Ukrainians (and anyone else for that matter), so may as well try the insurgency path.

No. That Russian forces shelled the plant and set it on fire is a fact. There are also now plenty of footage coming from satellites and drones showing the extent of Russian carnage in the suburbs of Kyiv and Kharkiv and in southern Ukraine. Entire towns and neighborhoods and blocks and blocks of homes and apartment buildings destroyed. Clearly Putin has now decided his strategy, in the face of the Ukrainians refusing to welcome him as their savior, will be one of destroying the country and terrorizing the people to break them and make them surrender. He even plans to stage public executions of Ukrainians who resist his occupation.

Oh please. This is just plain silly. China wants to take land from India and dominate India and you want to claim some sort of China + India? That's just nuts. India is staunchly anti-China. Period. And the only reason they hold on to their Russia card is as insurance against Western pressure or sanctions threats vis-a-vis some future action they may take against Pakistan. There is no love for Russia anywhere in India. By contrast, there is genuine warmth among a great many Indians toward the US, especially given the very large Indian diaspora now in the US that is becoming increasingly prominent in American political, social, and cultural circles. And South America? Go and listen to the speeches that more than one hundred countries made on the UNGA floor including many S. American states. They all pounded Russia into the dirt. Even India's speech made it very obvious that they completely reject all of Russia's claims and are totally on Ukraine's side, but were abstaining for certain diplomatic reasons. There is an indisputable global consensus that Russia is the aggressor and a bully here and that Ukraine is an innocent victim. Many small developing states, even though not part of any sanctions regime themselves, have voluntarily cut off business and trade ties with Russia. In news media across the world, the stories are exclusively about how much they are impressed with the courage and bravery of those plucky Ukrainians. Every UN member that chose to abstain or not vote, did so NOT because of any support for Russia's position but rather only because they had some grievances with the US/West and did not want to get grouped in with the US/West. Even the ICC prosecutor, not at all a fan of the West, has launched a war crimes investigation of Russia and sent investigators to Ukraine. Russia is now very much a global pariah. And they are going to remain that way for a long while as their brutality and destructiveness in Ukraine is only going to get much worse with time. All you Russia fans are going to have to suck it up and get used to it.

With his economy in freefall (over $1 trillion in Russian hard currency assets are now frozen worldwide) he desperately needs a lifeline from the Chinese. So Chinese displeasure with Russia's actions cannot be dismissed by Putin. At some point here the Chinese are going to insist on playing the part of the responsible power that wants to mediate the conflict. And Putin won't be in a position to say no like he has with other states that have offered to mediate.

Yeah this is what I highlighted in my previous lengthy post. With Belarus and Syria not having any choice in the matter and having to do whatever Putin tells them to do, and Eritrea simply repaying the Russians for a recent debt, effectively North Korea is the only country truly standing with Russia. To be abandoned even by China must really grate on Putin's ego.

Yes you are right. And that's also why I have this feeling that Shoigu is just putting on the appearance of Russian hyper-nationalism to ingratiate himself with Putin. Lavrov is a true believer. But Shoigu I'm not so sure, and hope if ever the need arises he will rise to the occasion and take the necessary actions against Putin.