kanisatha

There is a story that when Mao went to Moscow for his first meeting with Stalin, he vigorously urged Stalin to start a fullscale nuclear war with the West, arguing that because the USSR and the PRC had so many more people than the West at least some of their people would survive whereas the West would be all dead, and in this way they could take over the world. Point is, a would-be hegemon using an ally to do the dirty work of destroying an opponent, in the process destroying themselves as well, is a time-tested strategy of ambitious great powers.

There are plenty of examples of just this in history, and furthermore no one is saying it is all him alone. It is entirely possible some other crazy ultra-nationalists (the Sergei twins for example) happen to share is obsession with Ukraine. But the bottom line is that he leads a dictatorship, and by definition that means he answers to no one else.

More information is slowly coming out now about Putin's state of mind. Even some people in Russia who were/are close to Putin are now coming forward to talk about their concerns about Putin's mental state. They say he has been suffering from medically diagnosable conditions of delusion and paranoia for some months now. He literally lives in isolation in a bunker, and has stopped communicating even with people who used to be his highly trusted confidantes; that he used to actually ask for and listen to alternative pov's, but not anymore, and now just demands outcomes from subordinates no matter how unachievable; that he has sunk into an obsession with Ukraine, and believes some people are out to "get him" including to kill him. This is the stuff that worries me most, that as the war goes poorly, his economy in tatters, his image and reputation destroyed, the whole world rallying around people he has determined to be "nazis" and "criminals," he will suffer a complete mental breakdown even while having that finger on the nuclear button.

Well if they are serious, (1) they should NOT be public about it and submit their request in secret, and (2) their bid should be approved in a hyper-expedited manner.

Yes the economic damage is beginning to pile up, but as long as his oil and gas sectors remain largely untouched by sanctions he's going to be okay, given some 50% of Russia's income is from those sectors. And technically, with oil now at over $100/barrel, we are funding Russia and its war.

Yup, this is my fear too. He is the kind of person who will simply destroy everything around him rather than ever admit he may have been wrong about something.

There's more to the Russians' problems than it's a ground war in a highly populated urban setting. We can clearly see their problems include poor command and control, supporting fire, equipment serviceability, and logistics. Also poor training and morale. And most of all, a lot of their vaunted hi-tech weapons are not performing as well as expected, especially their aircraft and missiles. But their propaganda machine is the one area they've excelled at, to where both we (NATO) and they themselves ended up believing and buying into their hype. And on this score I feel the same will prove true of the Chinese in a real war.

Not to mention the Russians already took half of it once before. Coming back for what they didn't finish before is classic Russian behavior. Just like Ukraine and the other parts of the former USSR, I'm quite sure Putin believes there is no such thing as Finland or being Finnish and that land is all just an extension of Russia. I fully expect claims to Alaska will be put forward very soon (not joking).

Wouldn't surprise me. The Russians have been demanding Ukraine give up Mariupol for years now, so they can have complete control of the Sea of Azov. The poor Ukrainians there will be getting squeezed between Russian thrusts from the NE and the SW.

Happy to answer. I'm a professor with a doctorate in international relations. My academic focus is in international security and conflict, and international rivalries. My research focus has been on nuclear weapons proliferation, but in recent years has shifted to the emerging US-China rivalry. Prior to my doctorate, my bachelors and masters degrees are in aerospace engineering. Separately from my academic interests, I've long had a passion for WW2 and Cold War history and military affairs. I was in my senior year in college when the Berlin Wall came down, and at that time knew the full orders of battle of NATO and Warsaw Pact forces in Europe by heart. Used to do a ton of Cold War wargaming with my friends in college.

Since NATO has now officially activated the NATO Response Force for deployment to Poland and the Baltics, and the US and UK have both declared that NATO needs to rethink its force structure in Eastern Europe going forward, I hope the US will expand V (US) Corps (Forward) currently in Poland to a full corps with at least two heavy divisions. And then we should reactivate the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment and stick them in the Suwalki Gap, where they can stand watch like they did in the Fulda Gap for forty years.

As for the quality of the Russian forces, it is my understanding that the Russian drive from Belarus to Kyiv was led by the 2nd (Tamanskaya) Guards Tank Brigade, fully equipped with the T-14 Armata, as part of Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army. These are Russia's most elite heavy formations. If Ukrainian light infantry, fighting without much armor of their own and no fires support or air support, are able to even slow down the advance of 1 GTA, that does represent a huge defeat for the Russians. In a battle with NATO forces, even the Polish army would defeat them in detail because they would receive massive fires and air support from the US.

Re. Kharkiv or any other major Ukrainian city, weren't we also told Kyiv was going to fall two nights ago? The presence of Russian troops or vehicles in some location does not mean the battle has been lost there. It is precisely in dense urban areas that the Ukrainians will be at their best, because they are mostly light infantry with defensive weapons, they are local, and they have the support of the population, even as Russia's advantages in armor, air support, and heavy offensive weapons will be dulled or blunted. I agree that Russia's battle plan was likely to take control of territory from Kyiv to Odesa and everything east of that line and then demand unconditional surrender. But now they realize that even if they win the conventional battle (which is eventually very likely), they are going to face a full-on and debilitating insurgency, and the Ukrainians themselves understand this and therefore will not surrender. This is what is driving Putin apoplectic and making him more and more irrational.

I consider the news that Putin has upped his nuclear forces alert status to be more evidence that things are not going so rosily for them on the ground. Plus, now some of those sanctions measures are actually beginning to bite. Backlash against Russia around the world is growing. Even China is now softening its pro-Russia statements. Putin is beginning to feel like a cornered animal, and to be frank that is the most frightening scenario of all: that Putin starts to feel like he's losing, and given that the one thing he will never accept is losing face, he does something truly psychotic like shooting off a couple of tactical nukes.

I think Russia using Kadyrov's thugs is itself a very good indicator that things are not going well with their own forces. It is entirely possible that the Russian conscripts, and yes they are conscripts, are suffering low morale, from having had to sit in makeshift camps waiting for this invasion for several months to now fighting Ukrainians who they were told/promised would not fight back or would join the Russians against Zelenskiy. These conscripts were expecting to be greeted by Ukrainians as liberators, but instead they are fighting them tooth and nail, including even civilians taking up arms against them. So the Chechens are being sent in with the hope they will be more tenacious in the fight. Reports are quoting Pentagon sources as saying the Russians have already suffered up to 3,000 dead, and lots of armored vehicles, helicopters and aircraft lost. And that this is why now US and European governments are becoming enthusiastic about finding creative ways to really help the Ukrainians, because they believe we have a real chance at delivering a bloody nose to Putin.

An excellent article, mostly echoing my own analysis and conclusions: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-miscalculation/

Yup, I've seen multiple stories on this, that the SWIFT cutoff, with some caveats, is coming. Also, even Germany has now approved the transfer of lethal military aid (along with non-lethal supplies and humanitarian aid) alongside similar declarations from several NATO states. They are sending 500 Stingers among other things. The US is also looking into how we can provide lethal aid. And amazingly, even Orban in Hungary has declared that he will fully support everything the other NATO and EU states agree on.

I think there is a danger of going too far in the other direction, of seeing everything as "fake." Some of these claims, such as the claim the Russians are struggling on the battlefield and behind their own schedule, that they still don't have air dominance over Ukraine, and that the Ukrainians are putting up a surprisingly strong resistance, have come from multiple sources including defense sources who are very credible to me.

There's a part of me that feels sorry for Belarus. For the people of Belarus, they are just as much victims here as the Ukrainians. They too have essentially lost their country to Russia and now face, effectively, a Russian occupation.

They've also been booted from FIFA and the Grand Prix.

Incredible watching foreign news media interviewing people all over Moscow today. So many people talking about how ashamed they are of their country and how shocked they are by the images they are seeing from Ukraine, because their government has been telling them there is no war, no invasion, and the Ukrainian people are just as much against Zelenskiy as Putin. I see potential for a grassroots movement rising up against Putin, especially with 60% of the army deployed to Ukraine.

Did any of you see Putin's statement addressed to the Ukrainian military, telling them to stop fighting his troops and to defect to his side and fight alongside his troops against the Ukrainian government? I honestly believe Putin has completely lost touch with reality and is now believing his own propaganda as being real. You add in his performance and physical appearance in that speech earlier in the week (which showed clear signs of psychosis), and all the stories about him in recent years about how he spends all of his time in isolation, is fearful of being close to other people because they will poison him or give him a disease, only talks to a very small group of advisors, etc., and I honestly think he's lost his marbles.

What I read was that Putin has offered talks but only if Ukraine surrenders first. I would guess that's a non-starter for the Ukrainians.

Sadly, my personal gut feeling is that it won't really matter in the end. Here's how I see things playing out. With a solid majority of Democrats not wanting to see Biden run for reelection, he will be forced into retirement by his own party. That will make him the worst of all lame-duck presidents, completely paralyzed and ignored in his last several months in office. His VP is even more disliked by voters, again including even just Democrats. This will provide the opening for the two worst people in America with ambition that knows no bounds. The presidential election will be a rerun of 2016: Clinton v. Trump. The American people, in turn, will be back to being viciously at each others' throats, torn into two camps that hate each other. Nobody in America will care about anything other than ensuring their side wins in November. If you were Putin or Xi, what would you do? Fall of 2024 will be the perfect time for Xi and Putin to make their big move to take down America and the West. It will also have the benefit of giving time for governments in London, Paris, and Berlin to also have steadily lost public faith and support, especially in the face of the vicious fallout and recriminations from Ukraine that already appear to have begun among European states. So I'm betting on September-October 2024 for the big explosion. Heck even the Iranians and North Koreans may be ready to join in at that point.

Raises some very uncomfortable questions for Western feminists, doesn't it? Shouldn't the women also be staying behind to fight and to die?