kanisatha

Yeah as I said in a post a long while back, Putin, Lavrov and co. have literally taken themselves back mentally and emotionally to 1940, and seem to now actually believe they're living in that timeframe. I'm sure there is some psychological term for this sort of detachment from reality.

Details of the current versions are of course classified but the US feels comfortable it remains superior to Russia's S-400 and even S-500 systems. The main issues in the context of this war are that (a) it has long range, enough to target Russian aircraft well within Russian airspace, and (b) is reasonably resistent to Russian jamming.

Yeah this is the true goal of Russia's strategy and policy in Europe: to try and push the US out of Europe. Everything else is merely an extension of this, including this war. Putin's powerplays in the months before his invasion were all about trying to drive a wedge between Europe and the US, and only when all of that failed did he feel forced to carry out his invasion because the only other alternative was to look foolish and weak and to lose face. What Putin truly hoped for with his invasion threat was to have Europe break from the US and cut some sort of separate deal with him that left out the US and aligned Europe with Russia, even if only symbolically at first. And given the extensive pro-Russia ties that already existed between Germany and Russia (and ditto for Italy), Macron's ego-fueled desire to be viewed as some great European statesman, and Britain--the only major European power refusing to play footsie with Russia--now out of the EU and politically isolated in Europe, Putin can't be blamed for believing the time was finally right to make his powerplay to push the US out of Europe. The US presence in Europe is the only real obstacle to Russia (in its perception) dominating Europe. And so, if not for the US presence in Europe, even Ukraine wouldn't matter to Russia (other than in the whole cultural and sociological sphere of "the Ukrainians are not their own separate people from Russians" nonsense).

Latest on Finland, Sweden, and NATO (including that it could all be finalized within two weeks): https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-sweden-could-deepen-military-cooperation-if-situation-worsens-2022-04-29/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/annakaplan/2022/04/28/nato-could-provide-arrangements-for-sweden-and-finland-during-membership-process-secretary-general-says/?sh=30620df77e11 https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-finland-nato-membership-two-weeks-russia-ukraine-invasion-1703349

Yes definitely one of the better options. And Isreal has now lifted its earlier block on Baltic states and other NATO states transferring Israeli military hardware to Ukraine, which is what prompted the latest crazy out of Lavrov that Israel was helping neo-nazis in Ukraine. I'm still holding out hope that the US will transfer Patriot to Ukraine. It's been the Administration's pattern thus far to initially wring their hands and whine about something but then eventually cave to pressure and change their mind.

Well, Pentiment is going to be an historical game. Just not an Ubisoft-style game, with which I am perfectly happy.

Yeah the artillery being delivered is a big deal, per a wide range of military experts. And since their range and targeting accuracy is far superior to Russian systems they can be used quite effectively for counter-battery fire against Russian artillery. But as you correctly point out, protecting them from Russian air strikes is critical. And for the US at least, we don't have any systems we can give them for air defence other than old Stingers because apparently providing systems such as Patriot makes the squishies inside the Administration nervous. What would truly be a game-changer is if someone is able and willing to provide the Ukrainians with an AD system that can take out Russian aircraft and cruise missiles while they are still inside Russian airspace so Russia can't sit back within their own space and bombard Ukraine at will.

Here's a good summary analysis on where things currently stand in the Donbas and overall for Russia's military efforts: https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html

I personally like Palputin.

Would love to be able to give a dozen 'hearts' for this post.

Yes, or it could go the way of the other earlier war, leading to the military abandoning the regime thus facilitating revolt.

Re. a need for general mobilization in Russia, the consensus among Western military experts appears to be that a week into the Donbas offensive Russia is again performing poorly and way behind schedule, and is continuing to suffer a staggering number of casualties. Their battlefield gains are minimal and incremental, with the Ukrainians often taking back lost territory at a later point in time. The UK MoD even assesses that 25% of Russia's 93 tactical battle groups in the fight are 'combat ineffective' now. So taking and then holding these territories is going to require a lot of manpower, but even then will still only come at a very heavy price in losses. Can Putin's regime sustain those losses politically? I wonder.

From a purely military standpoint, yes, A) would be problematic and B) would be strongly preferred, not because Sweden brings anything militarily significant to NATO but because of geography and logistics for NATO defending Finland. This is why NATO itself plus military analysts are in favor of B). But politically, because NATO has that stupid rule of 'everyone must agree' for anything to happen, I am quite sure Sweden will be a constant thorn in the side of NATO decisionmaking, especially from one government configuration to another, which makes it even worse because there will be no consistency or predictability to how Sweden will respond to any given crisis.

It's because in Yemen there are no major geopolitical interests at stake. It's very much a local situation. By contrast in Ukraine there are enormous geopolitical stakes, including especially the return to our world of Great Power War which we have not had since 1945, the longest streak in the Modern Era without a Great Power War.

Well this is what Putin has come up with as his endgame. We've all been asking that big question: how does this all end? For Putin, his endgame options are all not very good. So this is what he sees as his best option: annex these territories, then claim that now that these territories are "Russian" any further Ukrainian attacks on these territories are "attacks on Russia," and Russia per its standing policy can and will use nuclear weapons if necessary to defend Russian territory (with the expectation that in such a game of nuclear blackmail the West will blink and back down, and demand that the Ukrainians back down as well, giving Russia its "win"). This is how I see things playing out starting with Putin's expected big announcement on May 9 where he will say that the nazi Ukrainians and the West/NATO have launched an unjustified war against Russia, where Russia is the victim, and Russia needs to now come together as a country (so mass mobilization) to defend itself against this attack from the West (like how it had to defend itself against an attack from the West by nazis 80 years ago).

Yes indeed. Johnson's declaration that the UK considers it acceptable for Ukraine to strike inside Russia is a huge deal. I am hopeful Biden will be making a similar declarion soon. Even after Russia annexes Ukrainian territory and declares that Ukraine and the West must accept this "new geopolitical reality" (Lavrov's recent words), Ukraine has the right to continue to fight, and we in the West should continue to help them. And in that fight, Ukraine will have to strike inside Russia, because Russia's strategy is going to be to set up artillery and rocket launchers inside the Russian side of the border from where they fire at Ukrainian forces attempting to take back Russian controlled territory while insisting the Ukrainians cannot target those Russian weapons inside the Russian side of the border (and threatening nuclear escalation if such attacks happen).

Well Biden has sent to Congress a request for $33 billion for Ukraine. I doubt budget hawks in Congress will go for it, but Ukraine will, over time, get quite a lot of US aid. This is because in the US now there is consensus across the two parties (not seen since the early '80s) that this war offers a great opportunity to take down Russia as a geopolitical "problem" for the US in anticipation of the coming long-term geopolitical struggle against China.

Yup. A US defense official said this same thing today, that Russia's goals now are to annex Donetsk and Luhansk outright, and create a puppet statelet called "New Russia" in Kherson. And May 9 may be when all of this gets publicly announced. Then, once those territories are annexed, Russia plans to officially declare war on Ukraine by claiming it is Ukraine that is occupying and threatening Russian territory.

Yes true, but what's different is that now increasingly the Ukrainian side also has long-range strike assets to hit back at the Russians. And if Putin's goal is to take the Donbas and southern Ukraine, they're the ones who will need to put boots on the ground in those areas.

Nothing personal against you or any other Swede here but as an American I also don't want Sweden in NATO. Finland yes, Sweden no. I feel Sweden will be a pain in the ass within NATO much like France and Turkey, and furthermore I continue to take very strong offence at past anti-US Swedish actions. Just my personal feelings.

Finland and Sweden exploring jointly applying for fast-track NATO membership: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/05/01/finland-and-sweden-intensify-talks-on-joint-nato-application/

Article on stuff happening on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine: https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-shadow-war-russian-border-attacks/31827632.html US and allied lethal aid to Ukraine and impact on the battlefield: https://breakingdefense.com/2022/05/as-battle-for-ukraine-enters-a-new-phase-so-does-lethal-us-aid/ https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-04-30/western-artillery-surging-into-ukraine-will-reshape-war-with-russia,-analysts-say-5850651.html

Yes, correct. Some of these "leaders" have been willing to accept becomming Kadyrov-style puppets. But some of them have refused, and those individuals are being purged, at best, and in some cases being disappeared. What delicious comeuppance for them, eh?

Well it also goes to this notion that only the West cares about Russia's actions in Ukraine. That's just blatantly and demonstrably false. Furthermore, even in those small number of non-Western states that have taken a "soft" approach to their reactions, it is only the governments of those states and not the people. In India for example, as that one article I linked showed, the press and public opinion are very strongly for Ukraine and against Russia. But the government is reacting cautiously because of some strategic factors. Ditto in Indonesia, Brazil, etc. And the truth about China is that even they are only publicly standing with the Russians while privately expressing very different views to Russia including that they strongly support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. No country in the world has an incentive to not be supportive of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity lest their squishyness on those principles come back to personally haunt them in the future. And the outright comical stuff these Russian government officials, including Putin and Lavrov, keep saying only goes to cement the fact that they themselves know how bad things are for them and how completely isolated they are in the world. That's what explains the crazy stuff they spout. It's shear desperation + bitterness in the untenable global position they find themselves in these days.

This is the same thing I mentioned previously from an article in a different source. Apparently, despite all their previous claims that they had no claims on any Ukrainian territory and only the Crimea because of "special circumstances" from the Soviet era, now the Russians are claiming that all territory in Ukraine that was part of "new Russia" during the 19th century Russian empire belongs to Russia. But the Russians are apparently running into an unforeseen obstacle: the local "Russian" separatist leaders in these areas are angry because what they wanted was independent statelets that they could rule over and exploit as warlords, and not simply to be used as pawns by Russia for Russia to take those lands.