kanisatha

More fun: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/belarusalert/belarusians-are-sabotaging-plans-to-join-vladimir-putins-ukraine-war/ https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1583572/Vladimir-Putin-Russia-Belarus-Ukraine-railway-sabotage-supply-lines-trains-latest-news-vn

On the question of what comes next, most experts are predicting a long stalemate and war of attrition. And contrary to conventional wisdom it is the Ukrainians and not the Russians who would be able to better sustain this, at least militarily, so not including the horrendous costs to Ukrainian civilians. The Russians won't have their land bridge, and won't even have the two separatist provinces, because in those areas the Russian-speaking civilian population is not/no longer sympathetic to the Russians. Even those people that Putin believes are "his" people are now fighting against him. So Russian forces in these areas, along with their separatist militia allies, will be bled continuously by an active insurgency as well as hit-and-run tactics by regular Ukrainian military. And as those casualties mount, more and more Russian soldiers will surrender or defect, or simply stop fighting. Beyond the battlefield, though, the real action will be back in Moscow in the next few weeks. Yes, the Russian people have very little capacity for staging a revolution. But one never knows. As Putin more and more scapegoats the military and intelligence establishments for what are his personal failures, those establishments will look for ways to hit back, not because they care about democracy or decency in Ukraine but rather because they care about their own skins. After all, the last time revolution happened in Moscow, it was directly triggered by massive battlefield losses in a stupid war started by an ego-maniac leader who ignored his own advisors.

Sure. I would agree with this. But within any particular category of job the standards should be the same for both men and women. How could it be justified that if you are in the infantry, a male must meet X physical standards but a female can meet X- standards? But that's what we have right now. A woman who meets a lower physical standard is not excluded from jobs that a man could hold only by satisfying higher standards.

Hilarious for sure, but also very concerning, because it makes Putin more and more dangerous as he could lash out even more out of his desperation. The massive Russian casualty numbers just cannot be hidden or denied anymore. At least 15,000 dead. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/putins-invasion-of-ukraine-is-his-biggest-mistake-and-weakens-russia.html

Completely agree about women. If it's equality, then it ought to be true equality, not "equality" where you get to serve in all military positions but get lower physical and other standards to satisfy and don't have to sign up for Selective Service. Keeping my fingers crossed that the Supreme Court will agree.

There are also credible reports the head of the FSB is under arrest and other top FSB personnel are in hiding and/or attempting to get out of the country.

I preferred Oblivion over Skyrim. But I think I only used one or two mods. I'm a mod minimalist.

This same post from CDPR was also posted to their forum, and there they also added an "Update" to it: this will not be exclusive any one storefront. Hehe.

Yeah I saw this too. So much for the silly nonsense that India is supporting the Russians. They never were. And even China is beginning to cave on their support for Russia precisly because they're beginning to feel global pressure to stand with the Ukrainians. GLOBAL pressure. Not just Western pressure. And they're getting fearful they will start losing respect as a responsible player in the world. I predict soon Putin will expand from doing psycho things inside Ukraine to doing psycho things inside Russia, such as arresting and executing people within his military and intel establishment. Then he will start doing that to ordinary average Russians who dare to protest his dirty war, you know, all those "traitor scum." At that point, I expect (hope?) someone within the establishment will step up and put a bullet in Palputin's head, like putting down a rabid animal.

Here's what's happening inside Putin's circle of thugs, as revealed by the thugs themselves as they desperately try to escape getting scapegoated by their own boss-thug: https://thehill.com/opinion/international/598397-do-reported-russian-whistleblower-accounts-indicate-a-crack-in-putins And here's an expose on what Putin hopes to achieve through unscrupulous "diplomacy," given that he cannot achieve it on the battlefield, again as leaked by his own thugs: https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2022/03/16/russias_plan_to_negotiate_a_victory_from_within_822199.html

The only Ukrainians the Russians are killing in Mariupol are civilians--women and children. Thus, even if Mariupol "falls," it won't actually fall, in that the Russians may occupy the city but won't control it and no Ukrainian soldiers will be surrendering or getting captured as a result. The Russians are getting their worthless ass handed to them by the Ukrainians. They are angry and bitter about how this makes them look. So, the pathetic cowards that they are, they're resorting to slaughtering women and children to feel like they're big, strong men.

And here's a bit of an antidote to all the hot air about the dollar, the yuan, and Saudi oil pricing: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-15/saudi-switch-to-yuan-seen-as-symbolic-not-true-threat-to-dollar

Excellent material here. Thanks for sharing! I've also been reading a UK Ministry of Defense assesment that the Russians are militarily stalled on all fronts, have not made any progress in several days, and have actually lost ground and suffered huge casualties (now estimated at 7,000 dead). And this is why they are now just resorting to deliberately blasting civilian targets with missiles and artillery. A US Dept of Defense assesment says Russia has now deployed 75% of its combat forces to Ukraine. You put these two pieces of info together and it shows the Russians are a pathetic military power. They absolutely do not qualify as a great power, and are even questionable as a middle power. The only reason they command any respect, such as it is, is because they have thousands of nukes. That's it. Nothing else. Today the Commandant of the US Marine Corps also gave an assesment of the Ukrainian army. Essentially they are fighting brilliantly, and are now rewriting the textbook on how a smaller and weaker army defends territory against a larger and more powerful invader. He especially credited the Ukrainians with demonstrating tremendous military leadership, organization, coordination, tactics, and tenacity, and apparently the US military has already informed their counterparts in Taiwan they should closely study the Ukrainian army if they ever want to be able to defend their land against invasion. Speaking of China, here are two great stories today about how the vaunted *alliance* between China and Russia is not quite what it seems after all: https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/chinas-shifting-balance-interests-after-ukraine-invasion?_wrapper_format=html https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/will-xi-jinping-choose-putin-or-peace-by-chris-patten-2022-03?barrier=accesspaylog

People are always equating Russia and China, but there are some fundamental differences between the two states and regimes. The Chinese, unlike Putin's Russia, do care about such things as their standing and reputation in the world and being *perceived* (I emphasize this word) as a responsible world power. They also, unlike the Russians, don't want to completely reorder the existing international system, because that system has actually been very good to China (for example, China supports globalization, but wants it to be a China-dominated phenomenon, or at least a "neutral" one, rather than a US-dominated one). In international relations literature, states like China are called 'revisionist' states, meaning they want to reorder the distribution of power in the system but while largely maintaining the system in its current form. States like Russia (and Iran) are 'revolutionary' states, which want to fundamentally destroy the existing system and replace it with something else. And for completeness sake I'd mention states like Germany, or Japan, or India, or Brazil, which are considered 'status quo' states, states that are generally satisfied with the existing system and are only seeking marginal changes to suit them (though for some of these states, whether they are status quo or revisionist is open to debate).

Yeah, their own ruleset. Plus, RTwP combat, party size of five, graphics a bit better than the IE games but generally a very similar look, and a huge emphasis on crafting. And there will be future expansions, because a KS add-on was pre-paying for all future expansions.

Heh. You always beat me to it with the Solasta updates! Yeah a great update. I don't care at all about MP, but so many others do, and if that is what gets them into this wonderful game then that's a plus for all fans of the game. And all the other new bits that come with the new DLC are great too. I didn't think the backgrounds feature TA added to the game would have much of an impact, but it is in reality a very nice feature that actually impacts your playthrough. So having nine new backgrounds is great. My only disappointment is that we are still stuck at level 12 max. But given how far they went to tell us from the very beginning that MP was just not gonna' happen, and then they spring this surprise on us, I'm very optimistic now that at some point we will get an expansion to level 20.

That Ukraine would have to give in on NATO membership has been mentioned by many people (myself included) for weeks. The same for getting back the Crimea.

LOL, you guys do understand that the word "liberalism" when used in academic (i.e. political science/international relations) discussions is completely different from that same word used in US domestic politics, right? In other words: liberal/realist, versus liberal/conservative, where those two "liberals" do not at all mean the same thing.

Hehe this is a great line. I need to remember it for use when I'm lecturing to my students on realism v. liberalism.

Awesome! Thanks for sharing. I've also seen a lot of reports of a failed offensive with huge losses near Kharkiv. And reports that morgues in Belarus are overflowing with Russian bodies, with bodies now being stacked outside and beginning to rot. Apparently the Russians are bringing in portable crematoriums to try and dispose of the bodies.

Not so. Gasoline prices here in the US have gone up by 22% in the past two weeks. But I for one do not buy the claim this is all because of the war and the sanctions, which I see as playing only a small role in the price increases. The cost of gas was already going up sharply before the invasion happened, so the real drivers are certain other factors which our government doesn't want to admit to for domestic politics reasons.

Yup. Wanting a green energy system and being anti-nuclear power is literally the case of trying to have your cake and eat it too.

It is my understanding that all the Baltic state governments have now requested that US troops (not NATO troops but explicitly US troops) be permanently stationed in each of their countries. But the US (and NATO) are hemming and hawing because they "don't want to upset or provoke" the Russians. This is the kind of nonsense typical of liberal democracies that the Russians will fully exploit. As for the performance of Russian forces, they will learn from their Ukraine experience and will fix most of their problems before their next war. And in the Baltics they will be fighting the militaries of the Baltic states, not major NATO allied forces, in the first stage of the war. And as much as I have respect for the people of the Baltics, their militaries will not even be a speed bump for the Russians.

Yes it would *not* be a surprise attack like Pearl Harbor. But relatively speaking, it can happen fast enough to prevent meaningful NATO support in a timely manner. And NATO membership for the Baltic states is ultimately irrelevant. The only thing that matters is whether states like France and Germany and UK and USA are willing to sacrifice their own cities for the sake of (their Article 5 commitment to) the Baltic states. Recall that famous exchange between DeGaulle and Kennedy in 1962 when France withdrew from NATO's military structure in pursuit of its independent nuclear deterrent. Responding to Kennedy's pleas for DeGaulle to reconsider, DeGaulle said to Kennedy: "Will you sacrifice New York to avenge Paris?" And Kennedy did not have an answer for DeGaulle.

Nuclear proliferation experts (as I'm in this area myself, I'm quite plugged into what they're saying) are now publicly expressing their very real concerns on this question. "If only Ukraine had had nukes ....." That's is how many smaller states that perceive a threat from a larger neighbor see this war. If I were the leader of such a state, I'd go full-bore in pursuit of nukes. To trust the US or NATO or, God forbid, the UN (what a joke) to protect you is folly on the scale of Melos v. Athens.