kanisatha

Any Ukrainian move towards acquiring nukes would immediately trigger a full-on Russian assault to overthrow its government and take over the country--at whatever cost including using tac nukes if necessary. Any government in Washington would do the same if Mexico were to ever pursue nukes (or an alliance with Russia/China).

If the US committed itself to fight, it will. If it did not, then probably no. OTOH, with the Europeans, even if they give a commitment to fight, I would not consider it credible or trustworthy. Btw, this is why I believe very strongly that Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states should enter into bilateral security guarantees with the US and possibly UK. Trusting that (European) NATO will defend them is folly which they will surely come to regret.

Witkoff specifically said "Article 5-like." Emphasis on *like*. He then expanded on this by saying it would be something like Article 5 without NATO. And personally, I think Ukraine would be way better off with exactly that: Article 5 without NATO. Because I don't have much faith at all that NATO would actually fight for a country that is invaded by Russia, and by this I specifically mean NATO members like Germany, France, and Spain. The US, even under Trump, will fight. It's the Europeans I don't trust -- at all. So Ukraine is better off with an Article 5-like bilateral commitment from the US, which does *not* need to include US troops on the ground in Ukraine. It is indeed Europeans who should shoulder all of the burden of putting troops on the ground, precisely so that it ties them to Ukraine's defense. It is European fecklessness and free-riding that has brought us to this point in the first place.

Same here. I already got it on Steam.

Yes, the announcement came out of the DoD in a routine memo about US military aid transfers to any and all countries. The news media latched on to it as some sort of policy change coming out of the White House, which it wasn't.

Not a flip-flop. The Defense Dept made that decision based on a routine review without the knowledge or directive of the president.

Heh. Well it is the 50th anniversary of the movie Jaws, so the whole "I'm never going into the sea again" thing makes sense.

Yup. That's why Shark Week is the best thing on TV.

Well, any Russian attack against NATO, whether preemptive or not, and even if the main target is Finland and/or the Baltic states, will surely include an attack on Poland coming out of Kaliningrad and Belarus, because Russia closing off the Suwalki gap will be critical to their having any hope of winning the war. And likewise for NATO, any hope of successfully defending the Baltics, and even Finland, will depend almost entirely on keeping the Suwalki gap open. That's why Poland is positioning its best land forces for the coming Suwalki gap fight.

Yes absolutely. Poland is the best, and I give them complete credit for it. And it's not just spending, but what they're spending on. They're doubling the size of their army, making it completely mechanized, and also doubling the number of fighter squadrons in their air force flying 4.5 or 5th gen aircraft carrying long-range missiles. They're doing everything right. But this is also exactly why I worry they may face a preemptive strike by Putin.

I bought the following just now on Steam during their summer sale: Baldur's Gate 3 Neverwinter Nights 2 Enhanced Edition Old World (incl. all the content DLCs) Humankind (incl. all the content DLCs) The two DLCs for Zoria: Age of Shattering

I specifically said in Europe, because we're talking about NATO spending. And no, even globally, the only powerful threat to the US is China. No one else.

Yes, now they have a powerful opponent (in Europe) but we don't. So if anything, they should be spending more than us.

All through the late Cold War, (West) Germany had the largest armed forces in Europe. As an American taxpayer I am happy to see Germany *finally* stepping up to its responsibilities and obligations and doing its fair share for NATO collective security, though I'll believe it only when I see it.

Looking forward to the start of the Steam summer sale today. I may be inclined to put quite a bit of a dent into my Steam wishlist this year.