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Everything posted by Elerond
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Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Elerond replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
About millennium ago European nations were able to defend against invasions from east and south by more advanced nations, which lead era where European nations focused big sunk of their resources to develop more advanced warfare, which lead about 500 years later in era where European nations started compete against each other on discovering 'new lands', which they were able to conquer with relative ease with their new armament and we still live age where people descending from those European nations have advantage in warfare they use. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Elerond replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Funny thing is that currently Iran gets almost automatic place in World Cup from Asian Qualifiers because how few Asian countries are able to run high level football league, but even though Iran has been in World Cup now 6 (1978, 1998, 2006, 2014, 2018 and 2022) times it has been able only to win two matches, one against USA (1998) and one against Morocco (2018). Ukraine has had hard time to qualify from European qualifiers, as they have qualified only once (2006), then they advanced to knock out state where they advanced in Quarter finale where they lost to Italy, which won cup that year. But as how qualifiers are done in World Cup, Iran isn't able to take place from Ukraine or vice versa. World Cup is mainly just Germany vs Italy vs Brazil (as they have won 13 of 21 cups) and others are there just make it look like it is world wide event -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Elerond replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Russian military has more legal rights to order people around and force them to things. It seem like a way to combat against low morale among Russian troops that are ordered to control civilians on those areas than trying to change anything that Russians are already doing. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Elerond replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
With Cohesion's Action for Refugees in Europe aka CARE EU gave members states 10 billion euros for 2022 to help refugees in 8th of March (although it for all refugees not only Ukrainians) Addition to that EU gave in same day 85 million euros to Ukraine to help refugees inside of Ukraine and 5 million euros to Moldova to help Ukraine refugees in Moldova EU also gave all boarder states 15 million euros to help with increase costs of ensuring border security EU also remove bureaucracy that would prevent people fleeing from Ukraine to earn income in host countries in EU In 11th of March EU gave 300 million euros economic aid to Ukraine In 23.03.2022 EU opened ERA4Ukraine to help researchers that had fled from Ukraine to continue their research. EU also coordinated 10000 beds for people fleeing Ukraine needing medical care and increased funding of REACT–EU for 2023-2027 and allowed to used funds from 2021 to help refugees from Ukraine. 25.03.2022 EU and Canada started with Global Citizens organization campaign to collect funds to help refugees from Ukraine everywhere in world 01.04.2022 EU accepts EU wide arrangement to easily changes Ukrainian hryvnias to euros 06.04.2022 EU gives guidance to accept Ukrainian qualifications for researches, doctors etc. in EU member states easily and rabidly 09.04.2022 EU Commission gave 1 billion euros to Stand With Ukraine fund raising 15.04.2022 EU gave 50 million euros of humanitarian funding to Ukraine 27.04.2022 EU removed for year tariffs and dumping safety methods from products from Ukraine 29.04.2022 EU member states have used 3.5 billion euros of 10 billion euros of CARE's cohesion fund 05.05.2022 EU created new 200 million euros fund to help people fleeing from Ukraine 20.05.2022 EU gave 600 million euros of Economic aid to Ukraine 09.06.2022 EU gave 20 million euros to support Ukrainian companies through EU's innovation fund 9.6.2022 EU gave 205 million euros of humanitarian aid to Ukraine 28.6.2022 EU's electric controller ENTSO-E announced that Ukraine is connected to European electric market starting from 30.06.2022 22.07.2022 EU increases its economic aid to Ukraine with 1 billion euros 01.09.2022 EU opens its own evacuation center in Poland for patients that needs to moved to other EU countries 7.9.2022 EU gives Ukraine 5 billion euros economic aid in loans -
Both Ukraine and Russia are able to lose 300k men if they are willing. Ukraine has population over 41 million people and Russia has population of over 144 million people. For example during WW2, Finland lost about 100k men from population of 3.3 million. Soviet union lost over 27 million men from population of 170 million. Question is about how many men their governments are willing to sacrifice for millimeter of land gained.
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That is the difficult question as there is no simple definition of being Nazi, as it is ideology that consist of social, economical and political views. But if person views include racial purity, supporting political alternative for capitalism and socialism, opposing liberal democracy, disdain towards minority groups especially in form that minorities are threat to said person livelihood and way to live. And if person uses 'science' to prove their superiority. Then you can be pretty sure that you are dealing with person that would have been at home in Nazi Germany.
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It is difficult these days, considering for example that in Italy party that won the election Brothers of Italy was founded by original fascist and its leader has multiple times proclaimed that Mussolini was great man and politician. But quite lot people seem to think that calling them fascists is just sore losers If it looks like duck, moves like duck, sounds like duck, we should give it benefit of doubt
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In the Winter War political merit was more important than knowledge about warfare for soviets, which lead soviets to use bad strategies (for example mass assault to strongest Finnish positions over frozen lake, leading thousands men to drown after soviet forces were hit by Finnish artillery that broke the ice), and they didn't use combined arms until end of the war when they changed leadership to people who actually had know how about wars and how different forces should be used. And Soviets weren't prepared to long campaign in record cold winter. As soviets send their divisions from Black Sea area that had fought victoriously in Romania. Those divisions didn't have any experience of fighting in winter and they didn't even have winter clothing. And someone in soviet army had brilliant idea that soldiers can warm themselves by drinking vodka. Finland ended up to lose after winter ended and soviets started to combine their arms in their attacks (meaning that air planes, artillery, tanks and infantry attacked in same time instead of taking turns) and Finnish forces run out of ammunition and other supplies as promised help from France and UK never arrived. But to the point Russia has forces that are more than capable to fight in winter and snow, most of those forces are from divisions that have been situated to garrisons close to Finland's border. Like arctic brigade in Alakurtti (as name gives away the area was part of Finland before WWII) and northern fleet in Severomorsk (close to Murmansk). In Ukraine war, winter probably will not play big role as Ukraine fights in its own territory and is familiar with weather there. Russians forces have lots of people who are familiar with weather of territories they are currently fighting in. Most significant thing that winter may bring is frozen swamps and fields maneuvers they make possible, which can give new advantages for both sides.
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XA-180s and XA-185s, don't have much of electronics and they are designed to be easy to support and they are also used by UN peace keepers, they have existing global support lines. M113s are designed to need minimalist logistic support also Poland has M113s, and is able to provide support for them in Ukraine FV103 Spartan is from 1978, it does not have much of electronics, so maybe Ukraine is able to support themselves with British instructions. YPR-765 is variant of M113, and is designed so that it can be supported with M113s parts. Also APCs usually only have machine guns and don't have targeting computers and other stuff that are found in IFVs, making them easier to support as you don't need special equipment, parts and needed knowledge is smaller. For example conscripts support XA-180s and XA-185s in Finnish Defense Forces, where BMPs and CV90s are supported by cadre engineers. Even me a software engineer was able to change oils, grease, filters, fluids, etc, change tiers, fix basic problems in engine in XA-185 with less than month training. And driving it is same as driving truck. BMPs for example I don't even know how to start them let alone drive them. EDIT: All the APC so far are also designed in 60s and 70s. M113 is from 1964, it is two years older design than BMP-1. XA-180/XA-185 is most 'modern' from 1983. Most of BMP-1s that have been given to Ukraine have been modernized, they have targeting computers, night vision, sensors etc. added to them. In most cases APCs have seen only little modernization and even then usually with newer variants and old ones have left untouched.
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Poland gave Ukraine some of their old BMP-1s. Slovakia also send 30 BMP-1s to Ukraine and received 15 Leopards from Germany as compensation Slovenia send 35 BVP M80As to Ukraine Greece is currently in process to send 40 BMP-1s to Ukraine. Germany again approved selling 16 restored Marders to Ukraine There maybe more that are send without public knowledge EDIT: With IFVs there aren't that much western ones to offer as Eastern European countries have mostly relied on modernized BMPs and BMP variants. So they don't have anything else to offer and they can't support American, British or French IFVs.
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Old stocks have limit, so at some point they will run out, but situation is not better on Russian side. As in most intensive days of their invasion, Russian artillery shoot more ammunition than Russia produces has typically produced in two years. So even though Russia has vast storages they don't have capacity to use such force for long especially when Ukraine targets their ammunition storages. So as war continues there will be inevitably a point where new weapons and ammunition needs to be produced and peace time production capacity needs to be increased if participants want to keep same intensity
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It is not easiest thing to tie new energy delivery contracts if you break your previous ones without reason. Even China's and India's energy companies has to think over multiple times their willingness to invest billions to build infrastructure to get Russian gas if their partner company in Russia may not fulfill their contractual obligation when it feels like it.
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Yup they aren't in use, they only have minimum amount gas to keep needed pressure up. Because there is no steady stream of gas there is constant risk of leaks that will cause pressure drop in the pipes. But because both pipes started to suffer pressure loss quite same time, there is reason to believe that in was not a coincidence EDIT: Gazprom still needs excuse why it can't hold it end of agreement, in order to avoid sanctions in future in case that relationship between EU and Russia warms up. So far they have constantly found turbines that have suddenly broken. EDIT2: Russia also claims that pipes can't repaired because of sanctions. Germany say that such claim is bull****.