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Elerond

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Everything posted by Elerond

  1. There needs to happen miracle, in order to avoid absolute tragedy. But I am not sure that such miracle is showing up. Israel's current government is hardcore zionists and they got in power by promising security, but now deadliest attack in Israel's modern history has happened and it targeted primary civilians. So they most likely use more harsher methods than needed in order to save their faces. Gaza has been controlled by Hamas now for 16 years, and they are extremist whose main goal is destruction of Israel and killing all the jews. So there is high likelihood that they will pour more fuel in the flames. And forces that could put some restrictions in conflict have their own issues that hinder quite lot how much effort they will put in UN has failed for long time get any meaningful resolutions because there never seems to be any unity in world anymore Ukraine war has eaten lot of resources and will to prevent conflicts. In many European countries far right parties that most likely will not put any effort to prevent mass killing of Muslims, have won most recent elections. USA is divided and its governance is paralyzed and they usually by default support anything that Israel does. Iran is flexing its muscles when no one is looking because of other conflicts. Russia and China have their own agendas that benefit from conflict that draws world eyes aways from them. Turkey wants to be leader of muslim world, but also has its own internal issues and they usually don't want vex USA in Israel questions. Saudi Arabia does not have much love towards Palestine as they are too chummy with Iran So we can only hope that extremist leaderships of Israel and Palestine will see reason even though they have seek destruction of each other for long time.
  2. They have probably at least same level warm feeling as they have towards they ally and security partner Russia, that declared that area belongs Azerbaijan and that conflict is Azerbaijan's internal struggle and that they will not get involved with the conflict.
  3. That video is bit bad evidence of anything as it does not actually show that tank was destroyed in the end as it cuts just before smoke clears and picture is so blurry that you can't identify the tank model from the video. But Turkey's Leopard 2A4 have outdated anti tank protection, because Germany refused to upgrade them because Turkey used them against Kurdish forces and in they original deal Turkey promised not to use them against Kurdish people. Which was one of major reason why ISIS were able to destroy and capture 8-10 of them.
  4. That seems odd considering that American way is supreme air superiority and Biden refused to give air crafts to Ukraine
  5. Niger has been so stabile for past 63 years, only 7 republics from which are 5 military regimes have ensured that it has been able to build good foundation for country and ensure bright future especially considering that there are less than 20k soldiers in country of 22 million, but it is still military is able keep control over the state and there are not thousands and thousands people belonging in radical groups like al-qaida and isis in the state.
  6. People are just being broken telephones and citing things they have only half understood when they heard them. Claim that it is impossible for a white person to be racially discriminated against, is distortion on phrase that White people don't face systemic racism in countries where there are white majority population. But even that is too simplistic way to look issue because minority ethnicities among white population will face systematic discrimination from majority population.
  7. Corn is fruit, but it is often classified as vegetable if it's fresh and grain if it's old
  8. They seem to get lot of corn and sunflower meal. I looked typical grain products like wheat.
  9. China does not directly import grain from Ukraine, but they are one of the largest (4th in 2021) grain importers in world and heavily depend on global grain market and Ukraine is one of the largest (5th in 2021) grain exporters in world (they export twice as much as China imports), so if when Ukraine's wheat is off the market, China's import bill increases lot and their reliance to USA (where they buy about half of their grain).
  10. It isn't like South Africa has not in past just ignored ICC's warrants their own court decisions. For example 2016 and Sudanese president Omar al Bashir visiting summit in South Africa with open ICC warrant, South African official refused to arrest him because foreign head of states have immunity in South Africa, although their court had different opinion, but Omar left South Africa without being arrested.
  11. I guess he was reminded that Cyprus is EU member and not in NATO, making entry talks quite complicated
  12. Cluster munitions aren't new in Ukraine-Russia war, but USA has not yet has been willing to give them to Ukraine https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/05/29/cluster-munition-use-russia-ukraine-war
  13. I would guess that if there was negotiation it failed as US is now planning to give Ukraine cluster munitions
  14. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped Seem that Prigozhin's relationship with Kreml has cooled down
  15. South Africa has never signed or ratified Vienna Convention
  16. Poland that is constantly under threat of getting sanctions from EU, because they don't follow the rules?
  17. I think currently it would be enough for Ukraine that NATO officially recognizes their application and invitation to participate in MAP (Membership Action Plan)
  18. Kosovo refused to follow treaty they agreed with EU and USA and Serbia has signaled their interest of closer relationship so it is natural progress that happens in relationships between nations. Those that who benefit country's agenda are good guys and those that cause problems are bad guys
  19. Europe has not been peaceful for 8000 years, even then it was probably because people had to travel several years in order to bash their neighbors heads. 1900s- there were two world wars, but it was conflict full century As we can see not many conflict free years there List does not have Conflicts involving European states that happened outside of European continent And current century is not any better
  20. It is currently Hungarian forces turn Who have practiced civil and de-escalating tactics past 8 years on Hungarian borders from which this article gives an example https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/on-the-hungarian-border-no-refugee-escapes-violence/ and Hungarians are supported by Italians who also have practiced how to be human towards people when they have handled refugees coming from Africa with boats. Somehow these troops don't start to use different tactics when their command moves from their government to international organization where there is even less oversight.
  21. Who among us has not at least once in their life done $3 billion dollar accounting mistake?
  22. In my understanding they have two full patriot systems one from USA and one from Germany. Which both have control station, radar system, communication system, mobile energy plant and several 4/8/12/16 missile launchers that together form an artillery battery unit. Although media coverage about Ukraine's Patriots probably causes confusion as they are calling both artillery battery unit and single patriot launcher as patriot batteries in their reporting and it is often difficult to tell which they are referring to. That video that show air defense in Kyiv there were over 30 missiles/rockets launched by air defense from multiple locations and they seemed to be multiple different types based on how big light circle around them is and how fast they move. It is unlikely that they were all launched by patriot system, because launched happen in two short bursts which had only six minutes between them. I think it is unlikely that Ukraine has currently capacity to shoot over 30 patriot missiles in 7 minutes, because that would need quite lot launchers and both Germany and USA have usually gifted only couple systems at time when they send something to Ukraine. I also don't think that Germany or USA supplied Ukraine multiple different type patriot missiles for those few launchers they gave them. So I think most of the missiles seen on the video are probably from Ukraine's S300 or Bulk systems or from NASAMS systems that Norway gifted to Ukraine last year or from Crotale systems that France gifted Ukraine
  23. Difficult to say as Erdogan has ruled Turkey for 20 years, so it is difficult to predict what opposition will do in case they get in power. But currently it looks like that Erdogan predictably will get keep his power and predictably all polls that before election said that opposition has lead were wrong. So it seems that Turkey continues to do what it has done past 20 years
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