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Elerond

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Everything posted by Elerond

  1. How is housing market in SA, I have been looking house, but they are over priced here?
  2. Today's news headlines from Finnish Newspapers "This is all that is known about Putin's mobilization order" "Finnish Defense Forces: Finland has prepared to Russian mobilization" "These civilian targets would be under threat if Russia would invade Finland" "Military expert: Russian invasion to Finland would probably start this way" "Over million Finns would need to evacuate from east to west if Russia would invade" "New study: Over 70% of older Finns fear possibility of Russian invasion" "What will happen if Russia suffers another big loss in Ukraine" "Ukraine war is making Poland an European super power - 'If Russians lose the war then someone will fill that void' " Difficult to say, as we don't know how much aid Ukraine has received and how much it has impacted their operations. And we don't have any way to measure what would have happened if Ukraine would not have received aid. You assume that Ukraine would have lost without aid and Russia would not have done mobilization in that scenario, but Russia's initial assault to Ukraine failed even without aid from west and Russia had very difficult time to have any gains in main battle front of the war from start. So it is difficult to estimate if mobilization would or would not happen without western aid. But Russia initial force was not big enough to over come resisting nation, their initial strategy was clearly based on belief that Ukraine would surrender with little resistance.
  3. India seems to rethink their reliance to Russia https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/21/india/india-us-talks-shifting-russia-reliance-intl-hnk/index.html
  4. It is because of the fact if referendums are held and areas are joined to Russia, it will mean in current situation that areas that Russia claim to be Russia will be held by Ukraine, which means that it can't anymore be special military operation but a war where Russia is under attack. Which means that all the laws considering state of war will come in effect and that isn't usually good for business.
  5. I wonder if DHS agents who falsified migrants records will face any consequences
  6. When done correctly kosher and halal style slaughtering is as humane as is the industrial slaughtering used in most of the slaughterhouses. Kosher style got bad reputation in early 2000s when it was discovered that many kosher slaughter houses were cutting costs which lead to needles suffering of animals. Most famous case probably was Agriprocessors, that not only perpetrated animal cruelty (Peta's article containing gory videos), but bribed USDA inspectors, used illegal immigrants as slave workforce, deposited its waste to local river, used its power in Jewish community to remove kosher certification form competing slaughter houses and used mafia style intimidation technics drive competitions out from the business.
  7. VVER reactors are much safer than Chernobyl's RBMK reactors in case of failures of cooling system. As water around of core is used as coolant and moderator, which means that in case of technical failure of coolant circulation, water around the core will evaporate and form steam bubbles, and as water in steam form does not moderate neutrons this will reduce intensity of the reaction intensity. So only loss power from cooling aggregators will not lead to nuclear disaster, but if for example core shell is damaged by artillery shell then there is possibility of nuclear disaster but not in scale of Chernobyl. But as ZNPP has six VVER-1000 reactors, there is possibility that if they all suffer damage that combined effect will lead to significant nuclear disaster.
  8. Question is does US want to give Ukraine weapons that they can use to strike Russia. So far Biden has insisted that USA does not give such weapons to Ukraine.
  9. By information that we have got from Ukraine, strategy on Kherson front has been different from Kharkiv front. In Kherson Ukraine has publicly told about offensive, they have focused on Russian supply lines, done only little to break defensive lines, where in Kharkiv they started with direct assault to Russian defensive positions and targeting Russian air defenses show that they could use drones and migs to support their assault. So in Kherson they seem to focus on wearing out Russian defenses and in Kharkiv their plan seems have been to surprise Russian defenses with direct assault. In Kharkiv they seem to have succeeded to surprise Russia and forced them to retreat to better position to avoid their troops becoming encircled. Amount of forces Ukraine has in their Kharkiv assault points that it was not just opportunistic offensive, but longer planned assault, as they used there for first time MiG's with new air to surface missiles from USA to take out Russian SAMs. Most of their heavy drones seems to also be in Kharkiv front.
  10. We could lessen Saudi's influence in oil price, if we would remove sanctions from Iran, but that would anger another ally that likes to murder people in other countries.
  11. When there was depression in Finland in 1990 and hundreds of thousands people lots their jobs, thousand companies went in bankrupt and thousands people committed suicide because they lost all hope. You would think that people would have seek change in leadership, but people voted in power same people that lead Finland to depression.
  12. It depends mostly how they feel about governing party. If they support opposition parties they will see anything that government does as bad and if their party comes in power same thing will be good. Same goes to people who support governing party/ies. Most of the people don't really have time to understand budget so their feeling come mostly from politicians and political commentators that support their party.
  13. Ukraine needs to first win, before that there will not be much of talk about it
  14. Sending arms to aid Ukraine cause quite little economical stress for countries, as they are sending their old arsenal, which has already been stored to be disposed and countries regardless of what happens will spent billions and billions euros/dollars to acquire new armaments. Meaning that every year there are new stuff that would go to dispose that could be send to Ukraine. Most of the stuff that so far has been send to Ukraine has been 50-20 years old.
  15. 4.9140 * 3.5 = 17.199 (250% increase means 3.5 times higher price) Current price (7.9469 at moment I took screen shot) has seen ~62% increase to last year (~1.62 times higher) or last year prices was ~38% lower than current price (multiplier ~0.62) when price was 4.9140 But as above graphic shows price has been quite volatile so yoy difference changes quite lot from day to day
  16. Ukraine's military command isn't that optimist they estimated that war will continue at least to 2024 in current course
  17. "Some 32% of western Europeans are now afraid their families will go hungry." Sounds more dramatic, when you drop rest of the results
  18. EU countries need to do energy reform sooner or later. It has been known for decades but politicians have delayed picking any path forward, because it has been politically easier not look solutions. So far people have accepted that it is okay to wait if energy problems just fixes itself
  19. It is bliss of the capitalism. Finland doesn't directly sell to Germany, but Sweden and Norway do. so our energy prices are piking thanks to Nord pool spot market trading. And things aren't made easier that our biggest energy company Fortum owns over 70% of Uniper, Germany's biggest gas importer, which has lots of long standing gas contracts without any clause that would give it ability to break those contracts when it doesn't anymore get cheap gas from Russia.
  20. It depends on do you count in unfinished tales or not.
  21. Galadriel is at least 500 years older than any of the soldiers with her and she already fought hundreds of years in four wars against Sauron's forces in first age. And typically for Tolkien she is also supreme special person, who is taller, stronger, more athlete and fairer than other elves, who are supreme species compared to normal humans (those without elven ancestry). As she is also highly skilled with magic even without one of the eleven rings of power. I would say they nerffed her from what she is in Tolkien's mythology. There tensions between men and elves was between descendants of men who fought in Morgoth's side and elves who fought against ancestors of those men. It is dynamic that has potential for some good drama, but most of it will be new fiction as there is quite little in Tolkien's stories about how that dynamic worked. Tolkien described Harfoots as brown skinned. So them being black is according to source material, but in Tolkien's stories Hobbits didn't come up until third age. Harfoots were first Hobbits that moved to west Middle Earth in third age. Harfoots also took their fairer skinned kin, Fallohides, as leaders because Fallohides were generally more bolder breed. Tolkien newer really specified skin color of dwarves , but as Tolkien was writing Silmarillion, Lotr, and Hobbit like they were English myth, it is lead to typically portray dwarves as white and with stereotypical Scottish behavior. Arondir belongs in Silvan Elves, which again are race that Tolkien didn't detail that much. Which gives more creative freedom when creating new characters I personally can accept most of the creative choices the series so far has taken, but not Elrond's hair cut, that just personally offends me.
  22. I mean that developer usually takes loan for its project which it pays with money it gets from the home buyer/s And developer also pays salary for its builders and other staff. So money spend in the houses don't just sit somewhere without being used and when money is in circulation bank is able to get more money from market to loan it to other buyers. So as long as bank keeps interest rates that it pays to other banks and financiers lower than interest rate it takes from home buyers it is able to make profit with money it never had.
  23. It has been know for long time that republicans are actually communists
  24. In house loans there is the nice factor that money comes back to circulation in most case pretty much as soon as the loan is approved.
  25. Yes in my understanding it is to make it possible to most people buy house. But I have not familiar with reasoning behind the scheme so it is just guess
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