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Everything posted by Elerond
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Price caps are easy to enforce, they just say companies that they can sell oil or gas under certain price. Companies will then either make loss or not buy oil and gas from market which may lead supply problems (which is why Germany for example is against it). (In many cases countries them selves are largest owners of their energy companies) Price cap will eventually cap market price in world, as demand for oil and gas has not increased, so producers either need to cut their production or lower their prices to that cap in order to sell or not sell their products to world second largest market @Sarex It is just to show that only things that fit people own political motivations interest them and same thing has no meaning when it does not benefit persons own agenda
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Palestine question gets lot of press, but it is far from only area / people who want independence. It is also far from worst treated area/people Serbia still has not recognized Kosovo, so there is closer to home target for your concern how people who want independence are seen as causing provocation towards other people who see it as their right to own the land. 80% of Russia seeks independence from Russia main, which sees such actions as provocation and punish and imprison any advocates fast and harshly 50% of China seeks independence of main China and which see such as provocation that justifies putting entire population groups to prison camps. And so on. But people's struggle for independence is almost always just used as tool to attack people with different world view by pointing how those people support some people who are seen oppressing some other people. Very rarely such comes from genuine interest of people's right for independence or not being oppressed.
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They do enforce rules they have put them, that is whole point of those zones. They make aircrafts to identify themselves, tell what is their destination etc. Each zone has their own rules. Although if you mean with enforcement that will they shoot aircrafts that break the rules, then answer is usually no, but they will send fighters to do the identification and escort rule breaking aircrafts out of the zone. Other countries' jets fly through actual airspaces constantly and ignore their demands until their fighters come to identify the plane. Russia and China do such constantly to their neighbors, as they know that their planes will not be shot down. Number of incidents where country has shot down airplane that violate their airspaces is very low. Only one which I remember is when Turkey shot down Russian SU-24 fly in their airspace in 2016. Which cause quite lot tension between Russia and Turkey. Russia even put economic sanctions against Turkey. Russia allies claimed that attack was strike against efforts to fight terrorism, and they accused Turkey of hypocrisy as Turkey constantly violates its neighbors airspaces. Turkey's allies (Nato) backed Turkey and said that Turkey has right to protect its airspace. Although many of them asked parties keep their heads calm so that situation does not escalate
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Yup ADIZ are unilateral declarations where country/entity will enforce rules for air traffic. Considering that Finland didn't have Grand Duke even when it was "Grand Duchy". As Grand Duchy is translation from Finnish to English, officially Finland was Autonomic Grand Principality of Russia, in official list of Russia's Emperors tittles was added Grand Prince of Finland (which was one of titles of Sweden's King) when Russia 'conquered' Finland from Sweden, because Alexander I was lazy and wanted easy move of power and didn't overwrote constitution from time of Swedish rule as it make governance easier than Russian legislation, but that left Finland with more autonomy than what Alexander I meant to give it. In Finnish tittle was Suurherttua which translates directly to Grand Duke in English, but Finnish was not official language of Grand Principality of Finland until 1883, so Grand Duchy and Grand Duke are modern twists of the original tittle. As autonomic area Finland was governed by Diet of Porvoo (which changed to democratically elected parliament in 1906 ). Emperor appointed General Governor as his deputy and leader of Russian army in Finland, but he didn't had direct position in Finland's governance which lead problems during Alexander II's rule when Russia decrease amount of autonomy Finland had. Above is just to say that claiming to be Grand Duke of Finland has much less recognition in international law than Taiwan's sovereignty and claim to its own airspace. Especially considering that there is still living members of Romanov family. Here pretty decent article about what is Taiwan's position from in eyes of international law. https://international.thenewslens.com/feature/taiwan-for-sale-2020/128242
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This is important to remember also in cases of Kosovo, Chechnya, Kurdistan, Kashmir, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Eritrea, Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, East Turkestan, Macau, Manchukuo, South Mongolia, Tibet, Assam, Kamtapur, Manipur, Nagaland, Punjab, South Ossetian, Republic of Abkhazia, Aceh, Minahasa, Riau, South Moluccas, Khūzestān, Iranian Azerbaijan, Balochistan, Republic of Central Kurdistan, Nineveh Plains, Hokkaido, Okinawa, Johor, Penang, Sarawak, Sabah, Arakan, Zo Asia, Kachin, Kawthoolei, Karenni, Kokang, Mon State, Northern Rakhine State, Shan States, Wa State, Zale'n-gam, Kirat Autonomous State, Madhesh, Terai, Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, Sindhudesh, Bansa Sūg, Cordillera, Siberian Republic, Buryatia, Koryakia, Taymyria, Khanty-Mansiysk, Tamil Eelam, Patani, Northern Kurdistan, Assyria, Karakalpakstan, Khmers Kampuchea-Krom Federation, South Yemen, Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, Talysh-Mughan Autonomous Republic, Republika Srpska, Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia, Istria, Faroe Islands, Alsace, French Basque Country, Brittany, Åland, Occitania, Pale of Calais, Northern Catalonia, Bavaria, North Frisia, Lusatia, Valdosta, Friuli, Free Territory of Trieste, Republic of Lombardy, Transnistria, Republic of Gagauzia, Groningen, Silesia, Kashubia, Transylvania, Székely Land, Partium, Komi-Permyak Okrug, Sverdlovsk Oblast, Idel-Ural, Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Bashkortostan, Chuvashia, Komi Republic, Ingria, Karelia, Kaliningrad, Kalmykia, Kuban, Don Republic, Republic of Crimea, Abazinia, Circassia, Karachay-Balkaria, Lezgistan, Tabasaranstan, Vojvodina, Sandžak, Andalusia, Aragon, Asturias, Basque Country, Castile, Canary Islands, Catalonia, Galicia, León, Navarre, Valencia, Scania, Cornwall, England, Scotland, Northern England, Wales, London, Midlands, Shetland,Yorkshire, Isle of Man, Alderney and all the areas in Africa and Americas
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Claimed Air defense identification zones in East China Sea China imposes requirements for all civilian and military aircraft regardless of destination that fly over areas they claim Japan does not make any demands for aircrafts flying over their zone except if they are planning to land in Japan. China and Russia don't recognize Japan's ADIZ. South Korea had plans to extend their zone south after China's extended its zone go over Socotra Rock, which South Korea and China have dispute over, but at least for now have dropped those plans after USA persuaded them not to make such extension Taiwan's ADIZ was established in 1950s, which it extends over continent China and why China these days constantly flies it military planes there . But anyway China's territorial rights over Taiwan's airspace aren't currently recolonized by anyone including China itself EDIT: It seems that Russia hit shopping mall with one of their missiles. According to Ukraine official there lots of civilians in it and they currently aren't able to estimate how many died EDIT2: Reuters updated their article there are at least 2 dead and 20 wounded. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missiles-hit-crowded-shopping-mall-central-ukraine-zelenskiy-2022-06-27/
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To some extent, as even though fertilizers aren't targeted by sanctions, the amount fertilizers are imported from Russia is dropped 80% and Russian fertilizer production is dropped ~40%, which is caused that many Russian beverage makers are running our of carbon acid as almost all carbon acid in Russia has been side product of fertilizer production.
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Russian grain is not exported to west, but mainly in countries that Russia would not like to join western sanctions. Biggest importers of Russian grain are Turkey and Egypt (~50% of total exported grain), which control canals which are very important for Russia's Black Sea operations. Russia is already blocking Ukraine's grain which mainly went western Africa With gas Russia already has stopped most of the flow (either they stopped flow fully or most of it as they claim they need to repair North Stream), which has already forced even Germany to seek fast alternative from coal.
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My point is that as it provably can hurt heart and some other non respiratory organs, then narrative which claims that it can't is provably false, if narrative does not use things like most likely will not, usually will not etc.
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Virus mainly targets respiratory organs, but it can infect and damage heart’s muscle tissue like other respiratory viruses https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/heart-problems-after-covid19
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Mask recommendation is probably because virus can spread through saliva in cause person has infection in their mouth How does monkeypox spread from person to person? People with monkeypox are infectious while they have symptoms (normally for between two and four weeks). You can catch monkeypox through close physical contact with someone who has symptoms. The rash, bodily fluids (such as fluid, pus or blood from skin lesions) and scabs are particularly infectious. Clothing, bedding, towels or objects like eating utensils/dishes that have been contaminated with the virus from contact with an infected person can also infect others. Ulcers, lesions or sores in the mouth can also be infectious, meaning the virus can spread through saliva. People who closely interact with someone who is infectious, including health workers, household members and sexual partners are therefore at greater risk for infection. The virus can also spread from someone who is pregnant to the foetus from the placenta, or from an infected parent to child during or after birth through skin-to-skin contact. It is not clear whether people who do not have symptoms can spread the disease. https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/monkeypox?gclid=CjwKCAjw5NqVBhAjEiwAeCa97UAbJNgK0iOtHPAQjY1tdEYpq7A_Zl6HjoEOe6eIho1TNcrBS_qcCBoCpn4QAvD_BwE
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What I have understood, situation with Germany's nuclear power plants is such that it is cheaper and faster build new ones than trying to repair current ones back in use. This is because many of them have old and in efficient reactors meaning that new ones will outperform them and there is need for new ones in decade or two max anyway Many reactors have suffered from cannibalization where parts from already closed reactor has been used to maintain still running reactors. Also in many cases heat from reactor cooling has not been used for district heating or otherwise utilized. Which means that massive amount of energy those plants produced was not utilized. And means that Germany would still need lots of energy from other source in which they currently have two options natural gas and coal. In case of future there are some needs that needs to be addressed at least Adjustment power: Renewable energy sources like wind and solar don't have solid production rates, but produce some days more and some days less energy, so there is needs to be way to adjust how much electricity is put in electric grid. Ways to do that is constant over production where wind and solar plants always produce more than needed and over production is just wasted. Storing over production: in batteries or some other form of energy storage, which can used as energy source in day when there is underproduction Adjustment power plants (current solution where there are power plants which production levels can be easily controlled based on how much fuel is used) Heating and cooling: In big cities there is usually need for district heating solutions and as there is already existing district heating solutions where waste energy from power plants is used to warm houses in the cities there is need to replace them. One solution could be use massive ground-source heat pumps to turn electricity to heat efficiently and feed it in current district heating systems. An other solution could be build small modular nuclear rectors that are only meant to produce heat in district heating systems. And of course there is also transportation that brings its own issues
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Projected wage increase is 4.2% and projected HICP is 6.8% (projected peak 7.5%) (in comparison projected HICP without energy is 4.1%). So in 'average' wage loss is 2.6% even if we pretend that energy price spike effects everyone same and that people use all their money in products and pretend that average people don't use big sunk of their income in rents, maintenance charges etc. that aren't projected to increase, so that we can pretend people's effective income decrease full HICP percentage. And in 2023 predicted wage increase is 4.3% and predicted HICP is 3.5%. And in 2024 predicted wage increase is 3.7% and predicted HICP is 2.2%. So projected 'average' wage loss with above standard in next 3 years is 0.3%. Even downside scenario that assumes following The scenario assumes a complete cut in Russian energy exports to the euro area starting from the third quarter of 2022, leading to a rationing of gas supplies, significantly higher commodity prices, lower trade and intensified global value chain problems. Predicted HICP is 8.0%, in that scenario 'average' wage loss in with above standard would be close to that your 4% (3.8%). In this scenario projected HICP in 2023 is 6.4% and in 2024 1.9%. There is no estimates if this scenario would effect in predicted wage increases. This scenario predicts also full collapse of Russian economy. US spending in Ukraine is same as their spending in Afghanistan, so almost all the money goes to US companies, even more so than in case of Afghanistan as they don't need to pay to their troops, translators, local suppliers etc.. So US spending is not increasing 40 billion dollars when they give 40 billion dollars aid to Ukraine.
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That is pretty simplified reality. As it is energy and imported goods that are causing most of the inflation. So it effects will not be evenly distributed among citizens. HICP increase without energy is predicted to be 4.1%. So people who live in cities and use mass transits as their main form of transportation will not actually see any change in their living standard, which is majority of population in EU. It is the minority population that live in countryside that will see their living standard drop. So prediction is that average person/median person will not see any major change in their PP
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Question was about ability to continue to fund the war. In perspective that US was able to run two wars that cost more, increase its spending in new warfare outside of those wars, do countless military and intelligence operations around globe for two decades and still grow its economy significantly. Meaning that west has ability to fund Ukraine for indefinitely with current level and it will have only minor impact in their economy in long run. More meaningful question would be is current level enough to give Ukraine actual fighting change or does it prolong inevitable result?