Elerond

Long running energy crisis in Europe that become worse because of war start by Russia even though war has not yet impacted oil or gas production in Russia or deliveries to Europe, but markets see hard times in future, which caused problems to Citigroup because its analysts saw possibility for gamble and were hoping scenario where crisis is solved by OPEC increasing its production and Nord Stream 2 getting green light. There is high change that their gamble would have caused them big losses even without Russian invasion to Ukraine. So what enabled Citigroup to do such high risk gamble on markets?

But root cause is not oil price pike, but than big investment banks are allowed to do massive gambles with funds they don't own

This will cause massive impact on Russian trade. Maersk dominates Baltic Sea shipping and containers https://www.reuters.com/business/worlds-biggest-container-lines-suspend-shipping-russia-2022-03-01/

"Citigroup analysts predicted last month that Brent oil prices would fall 18% to 20% by the second half of the year, and established a short position on December Brent futures, recommending that investors sell Brent at $82.39 a barrel. They wrote that they had “high confidence” in the trade. The stop loss on the trade was $92, a level that it crossed on Wednesday as Brent futures soared to new highs. The trade lost 11.5%." https://www.barrons.com/articles/prominent-oil-bear-throws-in-the-towel-others-are-ramping-up-short-bets-51646247617 Failure to read world situation and making gamble investments has habit to bite people asses

It depends how you look at it, taxpayers money come from same place where all other money comes, from nothing. European central bank will just create more euros that it will loan to member states. Which can impact tax payers by causing inflation, which then will be answered by increasing interest rates, which will tie more money in banks, but as long as Europe is able to trade its goods and services its central banks can do their magic tricks with money that appears from nothing and keep economy running. Which of course does not mean that people don't feel some effects as it takes times to economy to balance itself.

OPEC quotas exist to keep oil price high, but if it goes sky high they will increase it so that they don't lose markets to other oil producers or alternatives It is logistics that is main reason why Europe is so relied on Russian gas and oil. Economic pain can be compensated with new recovery fund or similar support program. But money doesn't increase capacity of Europe harbors and number of oil/gas tankers in world

Considering that most oil producers don't produce oil even with half of their capacity, it doesn't take that long to increase oil production. Europe buys oil from Russia because they sold it cheap compared to others

Also Greece and UK are missing

There was ongoing civil war in Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe

Sanctions can be reserved on paper easily but not their impact. Amount of foreign capital that has left and will leave from the Russia is massive. Lost of trust towards banks in Russia will hinder recovery efforts. I don't see that issues with air traffic will recover soon after sanctions have lifted. Returning of now closed factories, warehouses etc. will take long time. So Russia needs quite good economic recovery to return to level before war let alone lost growth during time the sanctions are on. Also these sanctions will hurt EU, UK and USA too and it isn't like in past two years global pandemic has caused havoc in economy which will have long lasting effects in global trade.

Path to normalization has already been destroyed. There is reason why Cutting countries out from SWIFT is seen as economical nuclear bomb. After it is done there is now way to return to time when it wasn't done. Reconstruction can be done, but effects will last decades

Yes, it becomes sustainable. Because end result is that there is more money in our economy. Paying billions to other countries for energy isn't sustainable in long run but it is cheaper now, so people don't care

It depends, like for example with 120 dollar per barrel, our domestic biofuel will be in competitive price and will eventually boost our economy. Oil and Natural gas are bad for European domestic energy production, but usually it is seen too expensive to get rid of them, but rising prices will force change, which is change which oil producers would like to avoid.

Ukraine has at least medium range 80K6M mobile radars and probably ways to organize mobile command and control So losing fixed radars and centers should not make their air force inoperable.

You don't necessary need airfields, fighter jets are capable to take off from 200m-300m long straight road and they don't need much more to land. Road fueling and rearming is basic training in Finnish airforce, because expectation is that enemy is capable to destroy our airfields. I don't know what kind training they have done in Ukraine's airforce, but I would except that have trained towards situation where they lose access to their airfields

Joining to Nato needs to change to Finland's constitution so it can't be done in secret

Russia has succeeded to persuade Finns that we need to join to Nato, as support for Nato membership has increased from ~25% to 53% and opposition has decreased to 28%. Also all parties in parliament have now given statements in support of joining to Nato. So now it would be possible that Finland joins to Nato soonish.

EU's energy ministers are currently having meeting about cutting down energy purchases from Russia.

There has been always lot of Finns (I think 6-7 on entire forum)

Fighting when your side does not have air support and other side has, is hellish.

Especially when you don't have your logistics routes set up before hand and try to build them from the fly

For Russian it was unexpected as they had not established supply lines for their troops, which has hindered their progress according to our military intelligence

That is typical war propaganda. It is meant to lower defenders will to fight.

That was what countries did in 1939, they tried to avoid become parties in the war, which is why Finland, Poland, Baltic states did get only promises of help when they were invaded

Oil and gas are sacred, which is why there was constantly flow of oil and gas even worst moments of cold war. Main reason is that once the flow is cut down, there is very high change that it will never again go up