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Elerond

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Everything posted by Elerond

  1. Do you know what were sentences in this case? https://www.news24.com/fin24/Companies/Financial-Services/hawks-nab-ex-sars-auditors-for-tax-fraud-worth-over-r320-million-20210511
  2. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/30/refusing-to-kill-people-isn-t-a-crime Although I am not sure if even Russian own laws matter in this case
  3. Russian central bank support ruble with heavy buy outs and Russian companies are forced to changes their foreign money to rubles. And trading of ruble is restricted. So ruble is currently full of air
  4. These both can be true Russian soldiers in front line may have running out of arms and supplies where they have plenty missiles and artillery shells
  5. But it is vain claim you are trying to avoid civilian casualties if you use indirect fire against city full of civilians even if there are troops that defending it against your invading troops. Ability to do more damage against civilians doesn't mean that you are trying to avoid civilian casualties. I mean nuclear powers could always claim that they avoid civilian casualties even when they carpet bomb cities with fire bomb because they didn't use nukes.
  6. But they didn't shoot military targets. As they shot oil refinery and communication tower, they are strategically important targets in case Russia wants to continue their invasion, but they would not be important targets if they actually wanted just to 'liberate' Donbas
  7. Considering that Lviv is 1200 km away from Donetsk, it shows that Russia declaration that they will concentrate to liberation of Donbas does not really mean anything That is lie considering that they use artillery and missiles against residential areas in cities that they are sieging . https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60695465
  8. Video is clearly fake as Russia has told us that they have destroyed Ukraine's communication systems
  9. For short term it may help prevent ruble from crashing, but it means that Russia loses it main source of foreign currency, which would mean that their economy has higher risk to crash if they in any point lose their energy export. It also increase volatility of their foreign trade as they have less foreign currency to use in case ruble's value drops in some point.
  10. Everyone who commits war crimes should be charged of crimes they have committed, but sad reality is that currently only losers of wars involving small nations are ones that face such charges. And even with them most of crimes go without charges or even investigations.
  11. There is no war crime tribunals against USA or Russia without someone else taking over them as neither one recognizes authority of ICC
  12. It name is Uncle Ivan, so hard to say
  13. Why would India be sanctioned when Russian oil is not target of sanctions? US just does not buy it anymore. Saudi Arabia and China have had talks about yuan trade now for 6 years (talks started in 2016). Even though Saudis aren't happy with US, main driver behind their talks with China come economic factors US imports of Saudi oil has decreased to fourth what it was thirty years ago (from 2 million barrels per day to 500k barrels per day). China buy now about 1.76 million barrels Saudi oil per day (25% of all exported oil from SA). China, Japan, South Korea and India buy 65% of SA's oil, which means that dollar trade causes unnecessary overhead in the trades, but Saudis have so far preferred dollar because they have imported so much stuff from USA, but now most of their imports come from China, which makes yuan more attractive, even though they aren't as good as dollars to trade with other countries and it is more volatile than dollar which could cause economic issues for SA. Saudis are also aware that majority of European and US car manufactures are looking to stop manufacturing petrol/diesel cars in next 10-15 years, so predictions says that demand for oil is decreasing in US and Europe, so it does not look like that they will found new demand for their oil in Europe and US, so they have already started to look other markets for their oil. Saudis also would like China to stop supporting Iran, so they are also using switch to yuans as negotiation tool with China to ensure that Iran will face trade problems even if they are able to come some deal with US and EU. Now Saudi Arabia would probably like to prevent Russian oil from Indian markets as they currently together with Iraq India's biggest suppliers where Russian share of Indian oil markets is currently ~2%.
  14. There is also this "The biggest sticking point remains Russia’s demand that Ukraine recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region." Which means that Ukraine needs to give up three of it ten biggest cities Mariupol, Luhansk and Donetsk
  15. Oil price dropping like stone because Chinese economy is predicted to crash because of Ukraine war (@Darkpriest style reading of news ) https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/mar/14/uk-petrol-prices-diesel-experts-tell-mps-russia-ukraine
  16. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/mar/14/uk-petrol-prices-diesel-experts-tell-mps-russia-ukraine
  17. Maybe problem is that you don't understand points made
  18. How much money average Chinese person has compared to average US person? Natural resources have habit to produce money to selected few who own them, where rest of the country benefits only little about them. Meaning if you take all money that there is to be have from natural resource, that amount needs to be less than the amount of that people get from products that are made from those natural resources because otherwise those products would make loss and their production would end. And then there is capitalistic death wheel, where country that sell natural resources buys the products that were made of those resources, which leads situation where they need to sell amount of natural resources needed for multiple products in order to buy one product.
  19. But is UK that is suffering because of oil price not USA. And MBS and BoJo have increased UK - Saudi Arabia trade in past couple years, even so much that BoJo intervened in mentioned trade of Newcastle United
  20. Didn't BoJo help Saudis to take over Newcastle United when Premier League blocked them buying it? So I don't see why he now would have issues with Saudis.
  21. yes that increases profit of higher layer
  22. Reason is heart of capitalism, every time you add layer in production chain you add layer that makes more money than lower layer.
  23. Germany is heavily invested on producing their energy with gas and they have driven down their alternatives, like they are still continuing their plan to shut down their nuclear reactors during this year, even though their energy prices have been in increasing several years now. Building power plants take some time and it cost money, which is why Germany does not want immediately change source of their energy as they have option not to do so. Germany could reverse it decision to shut down nuclear plants and increase production in its coal plants. Remove all limitations from its coal mines, but it does not want because they think they can still do their move to renewable energy in next three decades and use their natural gas as transition time strategy. So they are willing to buy gas from Russia just so that they don't need to do immediate actions that cost money and go against their past decision about their energy production. But question on who Russian will sell their gas if Germany (and other European countries don't buy it). As they don't have infrastructure to deliver it anywhere else and they ability to build such infrastructure is heavily hindered by hits their economy has taken from sanctions and they don't have domestic production for necessary parts to build such infrastructure. And if we don't count in struggles they have in delivering gas and oil to elsewhere, there is question of where to sell it. China is willing to buy it but cheaper price than what Europe is currently paying and there is same situation with India. As both of them are looking new sources to make their energy cheaper. So if Europe doesn't buy gas and oil from Russia, then Russia is in situation where they need to spend billions to build new delivery infrastructure just to get less money they are currently getting. Considering that EU is producing almost twice as much wheat than it uses, it can easily keep bread and other agricultural foods in reasonable prices, even if they need to move from artificial fertilizers back to natural fertilizers and more sustainable cultivation, and still produce more than needed from current fields. Of course such jumps aren't easy and cost money when done in short order, which is why it looks like that many farmers will not sow all their fields this year, causing jump to crop futures, but that is temporal even in scenario in which EU can't buy any fertilizers from Russia. Bigger problem about food prices hit to countries that don't produce enough themselves to feed their population and have relied on buying food from Ukraine and Russia. If trade sanctions against Russia last for long time it there will be problems with Russian wheat exports even if they don't have any issue with production, because so much world transport capacity is in hands of countries that have put sanctions on Russia. As wheat in Russian silos does not help people in Africa if there is very limited capacity to transport it to Africa.
  24. Consumer. They can change their economy much easier than the producer. There is reason why USA is rich where countries that produce goods and natural resources it use are poor
  25. CIPS has big dollar problem Largest Chinese export partners United States: US$452.6 billion (17.5% of China’s total exports) Hong Kong: $272.7 billion (10.5%) (Which largest trading partner after China is USA) Japan: $142.6 billion (5.5%) (Which largest trading partner after China is USA) Vietnam: $113.8 billion (4.4%) (Which largest trading partner is USA) South Korea: $112.5 billion (4.3%) (Which largest trading partner is USA) Germany: $86.8 billion (3.4%) (Which largest trading partner is USA) Netherlands: $79 billion (3%) (Which largest trading partner is USA) United Kingdom: $72.6 billion (2.8%) (Which largest trading partner is USA) India: $66.7 billion (2.6%) (Which largest trading partner is USA) Taiwan: $60.1 billion (2.3%) (Which largest trading partner after China is USA) Singapore: $57.5 billion (2.2%) (Which largest trading partner after China and Hong Kong is USA) Malaysia: $56.4 billion (2.2%) (Which largest trading partner after China and Singapore is USA) Australia: $53.5 billion (2.1%) (USA is forth largest trading partner) Russia: $50.6 billion (2%) Thailand: $50.5 billion (2%) (Which largest trading partner is USA) But luckily USA is not vindictive against countries that try to avoid its rules
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