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Everything posted by Elerond
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It depends how you look at it, taxpayers money come from same place where all other money comes, from nothing. European central bank will just create more euros that it will loan to member states. Which can impact tax payers by causing inflation, which then will be answered by increasing interest rates, which will tie more money in banks, but as long as Europe is able to trade its goods and services its central banks can do their magic tricks with money that appears from nothing and keep economy running. Which of course does not mean that people don't feel some effects as it takes times to economy to balance itself.
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OPEC quotas exist to keep oil price high, but if it goes sky high they will increase it so that they don't lose markets to other oil producers or alternatives It is logistics that is main reason why Europe is so relied on Russian gas and oil. Economic pain can be compensated with new recovery fund or similar support program. But money doesn't increase capacity of Europe harbors and number of oil/gas tankers in world
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Considering that most oil producers don't produce oil even with half of their capacity, it doesn't take that long to increase oil production. Europe buys oil from Russia because they sold it cheap compared to others
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Also Greece and UK are missing
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There was ongoing civil war in Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe
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Sanctions can be reserved on paper easily but not their impact. Amount of foreign capital that has left and will leave from the Russia is massive. Lost of trust towards banks in Russia will hinder recovery efforts. I don't see that issues with air traffic will recover soon after sanctions have lifted. Returning of now closed factories, warehouses etc. will take long time. So Russia needs quite good economic recovery to return to level before war let alone lost growth during time the sanctions are on. Also these sanctions will hurt EU, UK and USA too and it isn't like in past two years global pandemic has caused havoc in economy which will have long lasting effects in global trade.
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Path to normalization has already been destroyed. There is reason why Cutting countries out from SWIFT is seen as economical nuclear bomb. After it is done there is now way to return to time when it wasn't done. Reconstruction can be done, but effects will last decades
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Yes, it becomes sustainable. Because end result is that there is more money in our economy. Paying billions to other countries for energy isn't sustainable in long run but it is cheaper now, so people don't care
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It depends, like for example with 120 dollar per barrel, our domestic biofuel will be in competitive price and will eventually boost our economy. Oil and Natural gas are bad for European domestic energy production, but usually it is seen too expensive to get rid of them, but rising prices will force change, which is change which oil producers would like to avoid.
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Ukraine has at least medium range 80K6M mobile radars and probably ways to organize mobile command and control So losing fixed radars and centers should not make their air force inoperable.
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You don't necessary need airfields, fighter jets are capable to take off from 200m-300m long straight road and they don't need much more to land. Road fueling and rearming is basic training in Finnish airforce, because expectation is that enemy is capable to destroy our airfields. I don't know what kind training they have done in Ukraine's airforce, but I would except that have trained towards situation where they lose access to their airfields
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Joining to Nato needs to change to Finland's constitution so it can't be done in secret
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Russia has succeeded to persuade Finns that we need to join to Nato, as support for Nato membership has increased from ~25% to 53% and opposition has decreased to 28%. Also all parties in parliament have now given statements in support of joining to Nato. So now it would be possible that Finland joins to Nato soonish.
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EU's energy ministers are currently having meeting about cutting down energy purchases from Russia.
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There has been always lot of Finns (I think 6-7 on entire forum)
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Fighting when your side does not have air support and other side has, is hellish.
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Especially when you don't have your logistics routes set up before hand and try to build them from the fly
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For Russian it was unexpected as they had not established supply lines for their troops, which has hindered their progress according to our military intelligence
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That is typical war propaganda. It is meant to lower defenders will to fight.
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That was what countries did in 1939, they tried to avoid become parties in the war, which is why Finland, Poland, Baltic states did get only promises of help when they were invaded
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Oil and gas are sacred, which is why there was constantly flow of oil and gas even worst moments of cold war. Main reason is that once the flow is cut down, there is very high change that it will never again go up
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There are contingency plans and actively preparing to invasion by increasing forces and moving them to attack positions
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It may increase support for NATO option, but it is unlikely that Finland will join in this decade
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Putin's decision to invade was not made abruptly considering that his notification of invasion was recorded three days ago and Russia started moving troops to Ukraine boarders several months ago. And they already made anticipatory plans with Belarus six months ago. They may have alternative plans to achieve their goals only with threats, but clearly Russia has prepared for this route for long time now
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Russia wants to demilitarize Ukraine and change Ukraine government and order to achieve that goal they need to have there occupation force that can keep status quo after their invading forces leave. It isn't easy to keep alternate government in hostile country, you can just ask how easy it was for USA in Afghanistan. Resistance doesn't need to be big in order to change governance as soon as occupying forces leave. So in order to Putin to achieve his goal he needs to have total dominance over Ukraine.