pmp10

We don't yet know if he really was that badly wrong. Even Arestovych admitted thinking Ukraine was finished on day 3. And people like him ran the defense. Chances are the 'shock and awe' phase came a lot closer to regime change than people give it credit.

Tank talks continue: Germany won't move without US. I wonder if that means they wouldn't provide any Leopards themselves or won't allow any Leopards to be provided.

Turn's out Macron has jumped the gun on the announcement. The other countries had to follow afterwards or are now looking to push the opportunity even further. Might be no great design here, I mean the berlin wall fell due to a communication snafu.

And now serious talk about providing modern western MBT is starting. Poland and Finland are considering potentially providing Leo 2s. (assuming Germany agrees) UK has recently stated it could possibly join in as well.

It's the precedent that is interesting. Until recently delivering a western-made IFV was sure to start a nuclear war. Now you can do 'light-tanks' and be fine. Chances are that Putin turned-down one carrot too many and so here comes the stick.

Interestingly enough France is supposed to even provide 'light tanks'. I wonder what has changed recently.

Some interesting predictions by Michael Kofman. That was a long wait for quite a standard response with some opt-outs. Seems both sides are being really cautious about the energy markets.

Macron has been expanding on his idea for post-war order. His 'guarantees' are apparently to include the likes of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Armenia. I didn't think he wanted US gone so badly as to practically endorse a better CSTO.

EU agrees to potential gas price cap. It's still very much theoretical (it's set far above the current market value) but after months of negotiations some agreement has been reached.

With conscript forces there is no telling what they are capable of. Both on battlefield and off. But the initial 100k or so seems to have stabilized the lines and helped cover the retreat from Kherson. So chances are that next 200k would make some gains.

Russia has not yet deployed majority of their conscripts to Ukraine. The questions are more of 'when will they start' and 'how far they will get'.

Patriot missiles are in serious consideration for Ukraine. I admin I didn't see it coming. Delivery would likely take at least half a year which means US is resigning itself to a long slog.

When you hear Macron or Scholtz speak on 'new security arrangements' I get the impression they are hinting something more. Ukraine has no reason to trust another version of Minsk accords, moreover (if the diplomatic leaks are trustworthy) no country would agree to guarantee their security during the talks in April. On the Russian side the demands were to push-back NATO to 1997 status and now claiming parts of Ukraine they don't even control. I have no idea how they want to square this particular circle but maybe the idea is just to start talking.

Not really, in NATO there are members not under any serious threat and then there is the eastern Europe. If NATO is afraid of breaking a fingernail over Kiev then it will not be willing to bleed over Tallinn. Just over the last few months in Poland, people who would blindly trust in article 5 are now calling for panic-rearming and dreading future US pivot to Asia. And that's even before we even consider what European 'guarantees' for Russia could look like, because chances are they will demand some form of NATO roll-back.

Putin sets expectations for a long war. So much for those diplomatic feelers that west was sending. He doesn't seem too concerned with any upcoming economic collapse either.

Hungary blocks EU aid to Ukraine. Predictable hostage in dispute over rule of law and the EU recovery funds. But for once there is a deadline and someone will have to give-in before the year is out.

Russia to refuse oil sales under price cap, aims to cut production instead. I wonder how serious they are on this. The price cap was set at a market rate exactly so they keep-on pumping. Just look at the context of what was being said just a few weeks / months ago. Ukraine went from 'never talking to Putin' to 'maybe talking to Putin'. US went from 'talks are up to Ukraine' to 'maybe we would talk to Putin without Ukraine'. Germany went from 'energy independence from Russia' to 'maybe some energy dependence on Russia'. France went from 'invasion being unprovoked' to 'maybe the invasion was provoked'. (why else would Russia need guarantees?) Macron might be forced to back-down on his statement but the western lines are visibly (if slowly) shifting. Has Russia made any similar concessions regarding the future existence of Ukrainian state and its independence? I expect not but I might have missed them.

A little diplomatic signaling has take place recently: Biden floated the idea of talking to Putin. Scholz suggested returning to business as usual. Macron talked about new security guarantees. (for Russia of course) Slow softening of western position continues.

Not only has Ukraine struck Belgorod numerous time, on some occasions western weapons were almost certainly involved. Ukrainian capacity to strike deep into Russia is minimal and west is perfectly aware of the fact. Nor has Russia won any information campaign, recently they event backed down from mentioning anything nuclear. Minimal escalation strategy pursued by the west is entirely of its own design. Even if they believed nukes would drop over delivery of old IFVs they didn't need to stall or sabotage financial support to Ukraine. But I guess admitting that you'd rather see Ukraine collapse than risk Russian instability is too embarrassing to say out loud.

It is to me. When big organizations like NATO avoid that elephant in the room it's because everyone is on-message that it doesn't exist. For some reason that message has changed since last summit.

In an interesting twist NATO reaffirms that Ukraine can join at some unspecified point. The subject was entirely avoided on the last NATO summit and the matter seemed to be settled.

US allows Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela. A more practical squeeze on Russia than oil price cap. Not a big deal in the near-term, but if successful this can start making a difference a year from now.

Seems Ukrainian power grid is nearing the breaking point: 24 hours of blackout for the whole country is announced after missile strikes today. This also means no power in Moldova and stoppage of any pipelines that were still pushing gas and oil to the EU.

Among the recent UK arms package to Ukraine are the Sea King helicopters. These would be the first western aircraft delivered to Ukraine, even if intended for not-combat usage.

Pretty sure that was deliberate. Sure - he got them all killed, but surrendering is much less of an option after that.