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pmp10
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Posts posted by pmp10
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14 hours ago, Malcador said:
Very unlikely. Sanctions aren't going away anytime soon - I think the condition from the West is pre-2014 borders ?
Feb-23 borders but everyone understands it's an unsustainable position.
Sanctions already saw reinterpreting and exceptions, they will be hollowed-out if serious economic hurt happens in Europe.14 hours ago, Malcador said:I doubt Russian tanks sweeping in through Vilnius or something is going to yield no response from NATO members, definitely can count on the US to go blow stuff up with a clear moral reason - and a practical one as what point is NATO other than to defend it's members.
But they will not go to Vilnius to start with but Kaliningrad.
Carving out that very reasonable extra-territorial highway that Lithuania refused to grant despite EU insistence.
Perfectly justified too in their minds, goods transfer problems will only get worse in the coming years and will eventually amount to a 'provocation'.
If they pick the timing well there will also be economic crisis, internal disorder, troubles in the Pacific, contested elections and persecuted Russian minority to save. -
1 hour ago, Elerond said:
Germany's gas storages are in half capacity currently, so even if they lose all gas imports now they still have gas until November (when they start to need gas for heating). And during summer month they get more gas from Norway than they use (as they import from Norway 75 TWh worth of gas in month and use 45 TWh).
EDIT: Germany's energy crisis is mainly caused by fact that Germany refuses to declare energy emergency that would allow energy companies to break their long time contracts, which currently forces them to sell gas in massive loss, which has caused that they try avoid selling gas as much as they can.
There is a good write-up about this including projections.
Russia may not be willing to completely cut gas deliveries for financial reasons, but I would expect sudden reductions in attempt to sow panic in the market and drive-up prices.-
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13 hours ago, Malcador said:
I'm surprised they have equipment for 1 million. Well or have trained them to be useful in combat.
As usual with propaganda numbers it's taken out of context.
Ukraine occasionally mentions 700k (most likely all military personel) which for some reason get's routinely rounded up to 1 milion.
Assuming simple 4:1 support personel to combat soldiers ratio that makes roughly 150k troops.So presumably some 30% more than Russians, but chances are they are struggling much more with equipment.
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4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
[...]
Unfortunately The Times article is behind a paywall, so if there is by a chance anyone on this board, who has subscription to The Times, who can give us some insight, of what is this article about, it would be much appreciated. Thank you.
It's a bit of everything without much in the way of details.
It covers arms deliveries, transition to NATO artillery, coalition building, UK assistance, Ukrainian revolutions and negotiating with Russians.
Certainly no details on any offensive plans.-
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Tomorrow Nord Stream 1 is getting shut down for scheduled maintenance
Germany must be concerned as just recently it pressured Canada to ignore sanctions and return the Gasprom turbine -
Russian economy to do better than expected.
If this is remotely accurate a next war is nigh inevitable. -
A short report was published by RUSI on what Ukraine would need to stay in the fight.
TLDR: More advanced weaponry, munitions and even training.And maybe the most important bit:
QuoteThese requirements cannot be met through the donation of existing stocks[...]
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Interesting bit of info from NATO summit - Ukraine was supposedly provided with 600 tanks.
Deliveries we know of don't even come up to 300 so I wonder if everyone missed a massive donation.
Or maybe they are just confusing IFVs and tanks again.-
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2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
Well, a lot of people with a little bit more knowledge on Russia/Ukraine relations said that in a lot of different places, including myself, because no rational person would ever do this kind of action against country of 50 million with battle hardened army, with many allies, and would consider it as an easy and profitable task... Even the most powerful/rich oligarch in Russia Deripaska has released the statement few days ago at one of the schools, that destroying Ukraine is completely stupid idea, which would not bring anything to Russia, and that Russian has lost in 4 months every economic progress, which they achieved after the break-up of USSR...
Everyone sane in Russia except the ideological leaders and people deeply lost into their propaganda are seeing this from the beginning, and even before beginning of the war, that this conquest will bring Russia absolutely nothing...
It's pointless to look for financial profit in imperial logic.
All the captured territory, industry, resources and population don't mean much compared to the importance of Russian self-perception. -
Ukrainians reject peace at the cost of territory
80% won't even concede Crimea even at this point. -
27 minutes ago, Malcador said:Quote
A congressional aide familiar with the deliberations told CNN that a smaller Ukrainian state is not inevitable. "Whether Ukraine can take back these territories is in large part, if not entirely, a function of how much support we give them," the aide said. He noted that Ukraine has formally asked the US for a minimum of 48 multiple launch rocket systems, but to date has only been promised eight from the Pentagon.
A roundabout way of saying it is inevitable.
US likely knows best what it would take and so far weapon deliveries are around 10-30% of Ukrainian expectations.
I bet the decision of 'no' has already been made.-
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11 hours ago, Malcador said:
Europe wasn't able to resist paying in rubles but somehow will effectively enforce price-caps.
Even if this could be agreed upon in the EU (and the price of getting Hungary on-board would be considerable) Russia will just cut-off gas earlier then expected. -
Russia is now officially in foreign debt default
Might be another point of long-term economic damage but shouldn't change much as far as war goes.-
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9 hours ago, Elerond said:
Russian grain is not exported to west, but mainly in countries that Russia would not like to join western sanctions.
Biggest importers of Russian grain are Turkey and Egypt (~50% of total exported grain), which control canals which are very important for Russia's Black Sea operations.
Russia is already blocking Ukraine's grain which mainly went western Africa
Precisely.
With Ukrainian export largely blocked, a self-sanctioning ban on Russian's part could cause hunger in Africa and spark more migration crisis in the EU.
Maybe even more Arab springs which would disrupt fossil fuel production there.
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39 minutes ago, kanisatha said:
Western economic "pain" is a political cost already paid, and won't get anywhere near bad enough to justify abandoning a major foreign policy interest of the West.
Except the natural gas is still flowing and grain is still being exported.
Russia still has options to increase the costs. -
1 hour ago, kanisatha said:
And Western sanctions on Russia will not end.
That's a brave prediction.
Sanctions lifting will likely be the only leverage Ukraine gets come negotiations time. -
4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:
Analyst predictions ranged from minimum of 3 years to well over a decade.
It would greatly depend on economic situation and effectiveness of technological sanctions. -
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7 hours ago, Elerond said:
HICP increase without energy is predicted to be 4.1%. So people who live in cities and use mass transits as their main form of transportation will not actually see any change in their living standard, which is majority of population in EU.
It is the minority population that live in countryside that will see their living standard drop.
So prediction is that average person/median person will not see any major change in their PP
If memory serves the average European owns a car and will definitely be hit by rising fuel prices.
And consider rising food prices in poorer eastern European countries.
Your median Estonian household was already spending 20% of income getting fed and now is now seeing 20% price hikes in foodstuffs.
It's little consolation that if we match them up with unaffected Irish the average looks fine. -
11 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
Unless you want to see sooner or later another war in Poland or Baltics to appease the bear's hunger for power...
Might be inevitable the way things are going.
And maybe it's not right for us to use Ukraine just to buy time.11 hours ago, xzar_monty said:Don't be ridiculous. Russia always has the option to just stop. There is no way this can ever be taken away from them. The reponsible party is Russia who disregarded everything and just went on and started the war. I wonder what your agenda is, making claims that are so utterly against reality.
If your argument against this is that Putin would lose face, that doesn't make any sense, either. If he stops the war or loses it, he can simply claim victory. If anyone inside the country disputes that, these people will be jailed or outright killed. Remember, according to Russia, there is no war, and there haven't been any notable demonstrations against this blatant lie. All other lies will also be accepted.
You seem convinced that Putin wields absolute power and can get Russians to do anything.
I think having sacrificed economy for greatness there will be serious upheaval if he fails to deliver.11 hours ago, BruceVC said:Okay I see your point but the main reason for the Ukrainians fighting back is that their country was invaded and they literally face an existential threat. They would be fighting back even without Western resources?
They would but as we recently learned they have just ran out of shells for their artillery.
And that is despite sourcing plenty from stocks of eastern European countries.
3 months of fighting seems about what they could support by themselves.9 hours ago, rjshae said:The West can't intervene directly because of the likelihood of nuclear escalation. Ukraine had the resources to fight this war without Western aid, but having that aid has made the defense more effective.
Debatable but you could arm them seriously enough to stalemate Russia.
Of course this also means supporting Ukraine financially over a long war of attrition.The problem with that approach being in that support in EU is not there.
I don't think US will want to do this with eastern Europe alone, especially after all the talk of rebuilding alliances.-
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32 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
The West is not forcing the Ukrainians to fight. The Ukrainians will be the ones to decide when it ends one way or another
Except that without western support Ukraine cannot carry-on fighting.
With Ukraine and Russia being effectively out of options this makes the collective west the most responsible party for the future outcome of this war.22 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:What do you mean by "just to punish Russia"? If the fight goes "to the last Ukrainian" as you write, then it surely must be a defensive fight, in which case there is no way it can be "just to punish Russia" as you also write.
I don't see why it can't be both.
You just need to think of Ukrainians as expendable and their position as hopeless.
There are suspicions that Ukraine will be kept on a lifeline just to inflict as much damage as possible before they are forced to surrender. -
5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
It is just a candidate status, the full integration will take 10 years minimum, if the war stops tomorrow.
Candidate status at this time would be a strong message to keep on fighting.
The question if this is a fight to the last Ukrainian just to punish Russia is still open. -
European Commission will recommend Ukraine for EU candidate status
I wonder if western Europe will want to risk it.-
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2 hours ago, Malcador said:
Media here is banging the drum that they are outgunned and on the verge of collapse again as well.
They well know that nothing in this range will be happening.
It's like the HIMARS situation - they said 40 would be enough to slow-down the Russians and so will receive 4.
Ukraine Conflict - "A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny"
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
And talking of reinterpreting sanctions:
EU backs-down over Kaliningrad