pmp10
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Posts posted by pmp10
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1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:
They are slowly winning back some land lost, in last few days, though. Most notably around the Kharkiv region, where they got back a loads of land, which was occupied since February 24th. (Land north of Chuhuiv and west of Siverskyi Donec river, up to town of Staryi Saltiv - advance of almost 40km in a single day during Ukrainian counter-offensive).
That's great but Russian offensive there was stopped over a month ago.
I really don't think much value is put in Kharkiv at this point, except maybe as a opportunity for cheap terror strikes*.Whereas Russians were just recently making gains around Kherson, politically far more important target.
* - Still ongoing strikes, Ukrainian gains have not been enough to push Russian artillery far enough from even the city center.
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9 hours ago, Malcador said:
I believe a Polish official had something similar, but can't find a decent source at the moment - maybe they meant taken in this war rather than 2014
You likely mean the polish president. The line was that no territorial loss of Ukraine will be recognised.
That position (and the UK one) is just diplomatic grandstanding. Everyone understands that Ukraine has little prospect of winning back land lost this war, to say nothing of Crimea or DNR/LPR.
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23 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
That's an interesting choice of word, there, "sacrifices". It most certainly would amount to a major defeat.
But if we disregard religious meanings, sacrifice would amount to something like "giving up something valuable for the sake of other considerations". What sort of valuable things (for itself) has Russia sacrificed? Certainly not its own soldiers. Ordnance and other equipment, I suppose, yes. I don't think it has exactly "sacrificed" its credibility and reputation, it has simply lost it.
So far some 10% of their GDP.
I'd also argue that prestige of their armed forces will be diminished because of this war.
And yes - I imagine they would think of both as a sacrifice.-
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40 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
Except that it could just stop. It could have chosen the option not to start in the first place. That was always there. The option to desist is still there. It's extremely simple.
But there's no chance of that being taken.
Obviously it won't be taken, after all the sacrifices it would amount to a major defeat.
Returning to 2021 borders, admitting guilt and paying reparations would likely be minimal imposed conditions.
No way Putin (or his vision for Russia's future) could survive a humiliation like that. -
1 hour ago, rjshae said:
That artillery battle hasn't been all one-sided, and the Ukrainian side is growing increasingly deadly with Western aid.
U.S. HIMARS Rocket Artillery Going To Ukraine Would Be A Game Changer
Pretty sure that transfer is not happening if only due to escalation potential.
Someone angry over Kharkov could demolish Kursk with that.Shorter range rocket launchers are already being provided to Ukraine anyway.
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More and more rumors are flying that Putin will announce mobilization on 9th of May.
Presumably among some political objectives like annexation of DPR / LPR and resolution of Kherson status. -
10 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
This is just a Russian propaganda.
Or more likely politicians just don't want to know.
If no one (save maybe Hungary) was really breaking-out they could find ways to confirm that.I suspect that when all this is over with, we will find out that many countries secretly caved.
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And another economic escalation:
Renault auto-industry shares in Russia nationalized.Technically force-sold for one ruble, but that is what it pretty much amounts to.
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16 minutes ago, Lexx said:
I thought the gas is already flowing again.
It is, but it's not tomorrow yet.
I wonder how they will handle the problem that the pipeline also serves Germany.
Maybe they just plan to reduce flow by polish demand. -
1 hour ago, Sarex said:
So officially the flow of Russian gas to Poland ends tomorrow.
Also officially, it's over non-payment in rubles rather than anything Poland did regarding Ukraine.
In that case other countries should follow soon. -
The only bridge directly liking Odessa to Romania has just been bombed.
This comes just after two radio towers in Transnistria were blown-up.We might be seeing a second (or is it third now?) front develop.
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6 hours ago, majestic said:
Other nations around it also refused any gas embargo, it's just Germany that gets the flack for it. Why? Who knows.
There are greater expectations on Germany to provide EU leadership.
Especially so since they purposely landed themselves and no small part of Europe in this degree of gas dependence in the first place. -
4 hours ago, BruceVC said:
What do you think the West is going to do?
I'm sure they will help but are not about to provide upwards of 500 billion $ needed for complete reconstruction.
The security arrangements are more important anyway and these will depend on the shape of front-lines as fighting ends.
Say Kherson's people republic is established and claims more of Ukrainian held territory - will the west really commit to a military intervention in case of a future invasion?
I have my doubts.-
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9 hours ago, Malcador said:
Seems pretty impossible for Russia to win here.
They can't establish near-term political control over Kiev but they can certainly settle for less.
If Ukraine losses major parts of territory and cannot recover from economic damage then next invasion is just a matter of time.
All will depend on whether the west is willing to build the country back-up and protect it or just uses it as a disposable instrument to punish Russia. -
Russian army announced their objectives for phase two of 'operation'.
Beside the predictable land-bridge to Crimea and control of Donbas are the more ambitious: taking of 'southern' Ukraine and securing connection to Transdniestria.Odessa might not be safe even after Moscow went down.
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1 hour ago, Elerond said:
I think it is more because Russian's realized that it is death trap that Ukraine has build since 2014. They have dig there several kilometres worth of underground tunnels with defensive positions to make it very difficult to storm. So Russians leadership probably realized that by blockading and bombardment they can free their troops to other battlefronts and avoid losing troops unnecessary for little gain.
Sure, but the city didn't have to be stormed either.
Troops attacking Mariupol could have been used at Mykolaiv where a city cannot be easily bypassed.
So since it looks like a political objective it is a bit odd to delay complete capture.And another interesting development:
It seems that another arms package was just approved by Biden.
72 howitzers is actually quite the step-up.
If supplies continue being streamed like this Ukraine might retake some small bits of lost ground. -
Azovstal to be blockaded instead of stormed
Makes sense given the supposed number of civilians in there, but I doubt that means end of bombardment.A hostage situation might develop over this.
Ukraine has already offered prisoners in exchange. -
21 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:
And Ukraine will get finally some aircraft...
So, about that.
And here I thought Scholz was being obtuse today.
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2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
Here is the video from the parade, I did not count it, but they are saying maximum 100 people present at the parade... And Russia being Russia, you never know, if this are real soldiers from Moskva or some propaganda muppets
I would bet most of them are just muppets, because Putler was never before humiliated as much as with the loss of this ship, and they would never admit that Ukraine destroyed one of their crown jewels of navy and any casualty on board connected to it. Especially if the crown jewel is named after the capital of Russia.
The ship was packed with dozens of rockets, so if hit at the correct place, the aftermath and cooking off could destroy a lot of people on the ship.
The thing was caught by commercial satellite (or at least an eerily similar parade was) and analyzed.
But with ship obviously gone I'm not sure it matters that much.And in more important news: Zelensky just announced that Russian Donbass offensive is now ongoing.
Most likely the second most important battle of this war. -
1 hour ago, Malcador said:
Well, on bright side maybe they did manage to save more than the ~50 I keep seeing about.
The after parade at Sevastopol was counted to be 240 crewman strong.
There was also rumor from one of the survivors of another 200 being hospitalized.
Numbers might be exaggerated but I seriously doubt most of the crew would be lost without the ship going immediately down. -
New US aid package signed, will include howitzers.
Slowly evolving the range of allowed weaponry. -
14 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
Most of the refugees obviously will go home and they want to go home once its safe.
Pretty sure the refugees of Syria wanted the same.
It's too early to say that this will turn out to be a 3-month affair with relative peace afterwards. -
10 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:
What? do you think we live in huts or what? xD
It's not only about our housing (but that is an factor - if you thought it unaffordable just wait a year) but services.
For example waiting times for surgery in Poland can now be measured in years.
Everything in our societies that was mediocrely handled (and conveniently swept under the rug by COIVD) from education, thru health-care to energy transition will now come under serious stress.2 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:Are you speaking from Beverly Hills, Monaco or Dubai? If not, are you simply clueless? That statement sounded like it was not made by the most luminescent star of the intellectual Orion.
Central Poland.
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9 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
We do care. Only in Vysegrad Countries and Romania are more than 4.5 millions of them. Even my incompetent government is pumping a lot of money to volunteers and companies who help the refugees with accommodation and work.
It's not like there was much choice due to sheer scale of movement.
Migrants and refugees make for a great topic for politicians as long as they don't come in the millions.Everyone knows eastern Europe can't offer them great conditions to live either.
We will see exactly how much the west cares when the subject of money to support them comes about.
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
But only in a private conversation.
The Israel thing is so weird, it was clearly not an accident or meant for a domestic audience as Lavrov interview was for Italian TV station and they doubled-down afterwards.
I see absolutely no purpose or advantage to it.