pmp10
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Posts posted by pmp10
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32 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:
I still don't see what endgoal for Russia in this is. Until they basically bomb Ukraine to the ground they will not get much of what they want. I can see forgoing NATO being only think Zelensky accepts.
Political control of Ukraine.
Warsaw-pact style if they can, Chechnya style if they must. -
3 hours ago, Katphood said:
What did I tell you folks?
Zelensky has been dropping hints to it for a while.
Made no difference to Putin as he shot down peace talks on 'insufficient progress' .
Besides NATO there will also be the EU and entire political future of Ukraine.And there is always the problem that Ukraine will still expect security guarantees elsewhere, even if it's hard to imagine who would provide them.
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34 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:
CIA estimates on Russia are about 4500 and other USA agencies up to 6000. Ukraine is telling more than 12000, and Russia still around 500.
Just note that these are rarely apples to apples comparisons.
I think the Ukrainian number is general casualties so aside from fatalities it can include prisoners, wounded, deserted, cut-off and lost.Which could lead to a problem when the same unit is counted as casualties multiple times.
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12 hours ago, Darkpriest said:
US seems convinced they already said yes.
Shouldn't starting serious military support take a few weeks tho? -
40 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:
I wouldn't put too much credence to it.
There are a lot of demonizing rumors about Russian forces going around right now.
'Not one step back' brigades, mobile crematoria, finishing off own wounded, mining corpses and so on.
Usually spread by the same people who said Putin fired multiple subordinates (presumably Darth Vader style), yet we still see them showing up in official news footage. -
30 minutes ago, Sarex said:
When did that happen?
Over a week ago.
The story goes that some recon elements crossed the border and quickly turned back when the main body of troops refused to obey the attack order.
Belarussians have been sitting on the attack positions ever since.-
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20 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:
Because Putin would lose his face[...]
I'm sorry but you are saying that peace talks would lose him face but bankruptcy of the country and resulting military collapse won't.
And another thing while we are on the subject of economy:21 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:Winners of war are not always countries with bigger armies, but the armies, whose economy can survive the conflict longer.
Just how certain are we, that Ukraine will not go bankrupt before Russia?
It was a poor country to begin with, and by now most economic activity has pretty much ceased.20 minutes ago, BruceVC said:So yes Putin can achieve victory by occupying Ukraine but they will lose the war due to the Western sanctions [...]
For all we know Kiev can fall within weeks and I'm not convinced the most biting sanctions will last beyond a peace treaty.
I'm also seeing a lot of bets that this is a 3-months war and the push for 'old normal' will get strong afterwards. -
1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:
It is more or less how big losses can Russia still stomach, yesterday Ukraine sunk Vasily Bykov in Black sea worth 50 millions, they have captured at least 4 Pantsir AAA vehicles each 11-20 millions pop, each SU and Mig downed is 2-5 millions, that 30 destroyed helicopters near Kherson was also at least 50 - 100 million loss... each Iskander fired is more than million and so on... Russia might besiege Kyiv in the end, but the cost will be for Russia impossible to cope with even if they sell everything they have for one simple reason. They will be unable to resupply their army with fresh equipment, due to lack of microchips... So they might end up in very ****ty situation and hopping that Xi would not start to think, that he should acquire some parts of Russia, which historically belonged to Chinese empire...
The cost of this war on Russian side might be already close to 10 billions, not counting the Special Economic Operations imposed by the west.
If Russian position was this bad why refuse to talk?
Economy is not my forte but I think they can achieve victory even when technically bankrupt. -
Seems the diplomatic meeting in Turkey was short and fruitless.
Both sides are looking to be in this for a long haul.Guess we might really see just how much economic war can west stomach.
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2 hours ago, Zoraptor said:
The MiG29 deal is now... off again.
Some (rumored) background on this farce.
In essence 'Poland and NATO do clandestine operation'.
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33 minutes ago, kanisatha said:
Exactly. So why the song and dance about the transfer of the MiGs? Why go through the US?
Most likely afraid of Russian retaliation.
There is also some possibility that they cannot be retooled properly in Poland or genuine legal doubts were found about flying them directly from a NATO country.But I'd put my money on simple fear.
27 minutes ago, kanisatha said:Besides, don't the eastern European states have plenty of Russian tanks, AFVs, artillery, rocket launchers, etc., in storage?
Sure, but then we are practically talking a lend-lease program here and Moscow might see that as a major escalation.
And (costs involved aside) these things can't fight by themselves.
Ukrainian military is likely already fully engaged and there will not be enough time to train and equip new units with any complex hardware.-
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3 minutes ago, kanisatha said:
But hasn't Poland already directly transferred to Ukraine other weapons?
Yes, IIRC there was at least one transport of javelins since the war started.
Even if I have that wrong I'm sure numerous weapon shipments have passed thru Polish part of the border. -
15 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
Im not understanding your post? What is the Polish government hiding behind and what do you expect them to do?
The planes are getting transferred to US for a rather pitiful pretense of polish non-involvement.
I would expect them to either openly go with this on day 3, or never bow to pressure.
Instead they kept sending mixed messages, (even after officially denying the news) likely trying to drive some bargain.In result they showed themselves afraid, wasted crucial time and fooled no-one.
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8 minutes ago, Malcador said:
Wonder how much use they would be though, haven't really seen much of what Russia's SAM coverage is or anything other than Buks getting droned here and there.
According to US intel Russian SAM coverage has already been established.
Besides Russian air force is not as active as was expected so need for interceptors is questionable.Now if they get to transfer Su-25s from Bulgaria that could actually count for something.
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Yet another complete turnaround by the polish government then.
That they would try to hide behind US with this, after decades of 'evil Russia' rhetoric might just be a new low for the ruling party.And I'm pretty sure it is too late for them to do much good by now.
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9 hours ago, Sarex said:
So once big bad Russia is gone, then it will be China, then India, then Pakistan, then Iran and down the line we go. No matter that over 2/3 of the world population are the bad guys.
Russia is not going anywhere.
Chinas, Irans, Indias and Pakistans might be a problem from the perspective of a global superpower.
For eastern Europe it will be just Russia.-
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2 hours ago, 213374U said:
I find it really funny that you guys can defend Ukraine's right to break free from Russian influence, while advancing the idea that Europe must bow to American imperialism, all in the same breath. Holy doublethink, Batman!
Rest of Europe may do as it will.
But we will bow down to that 'imperialism' precisely because it grants us security from Russia that no one else would.
If we could trust Germany/France there would be no need for US involvement.-
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3 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:
Hopefully, you are mistaken and Russians are open to some concessions from their initial offer.
Something might be happening on that front as there will be opportunity to talk in Turkey.
In time it might turn into actual negotiations, the discussions on the Belarusian border are unlikely to result in more than local cease-fires. -
37 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:
Russians stated their conditions
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following headlines hit Reuters:
KREMLIN SPOKESMAN SAYS UKRAINE MUST AMEND CONSTITUTION AND REJECT CLAIMS TO ENTER ANY BLOC
UKRAINE MUST RECOGNISE CRIMEA AS RUSSIAN, AND DONETSK AND LUGANSK AS INDEPENDENT STATES
IF THESE CONDITIONS ARE MET, THEN RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTION WILL ‘STOP IN A MOMENT’ - SPOKESMAN
But there was also this:
Quote[...] Ukraine cease military action [...]
Quote"We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot," he said.
Can mean anything and the terms are not so generous if they keep demanding giving up on any chance of military resistance in the future.
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14 minutes ago, Sarex said:Wonder what he did to earn that.
The whole thing was hopelessly confused but Ukrainian intelligence stated that he worked for them and was no traitor.
In all likelihood a covert operation went spectacularly wrong.-
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43 minutes ago, bugarup said:
France and Poland had pretty famous insurgencies during the World War 2. Seem to be doing fine in the West.
And who will provide the liberating armies in this case?
With NATO drawing the line at soldier equipment I suppose this task falls to Moldavia?13 minutes ago, Malcador said:Might not, is your concern the Azov scumbags take over?
Them or someone worse.
No country can fight up to 10 years of brutal irregular warfare and emerge a bastion of democracy and liberal values.
War brutalizes people, this part of the world should be perfectly aware of that.-
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18 hours ago, kanisatha said:
Being under Russian domination is the worst possible outcome for Ukrainians (and anyone else for that matter), so may as well try the insurgency path.
You only need to look at Syria and Afghanistan to understand the costs of insurgency.
It's of course Ukrainian people choice to make, but it would take many years of fighting and guarantee plenty of death and destruction in not too-rich nation to begin with.And I'm pretty sure the Ukraine that could win an insurgency will have no place in the west.
In the process of fighting it would become something scary, a country that no one would want around. -
NATO officially rejects any idea of a no-fly zone.
Was pretty much a given after refusal to provide aircraft but now it's official.Ukraine, like it or not, is returning to Russian SoI.
Unless they will resort to insurgency to try drag Russians with them into ruin. -
30 minutes ago, Sarex said:
I don't think this will end until he gets guaranties that no NATO military will be present in Ukraine.
He could likely get that and recognition of Crimea already.
But there is also the demand to demilitarize as well.Ukrainian morale is running a little too high after first fighting and Zelensky couldn't implement that even if he wanted to.
Besides, the aim is very clear to do this again if Russia is displeased for whatever reason.38 minutes ago, Elerond said:Economic pain can be compensated with new recovery fund or similar support program.
Sure, but the money will eventually have to come from the average taxpayer.
Unless we are heading for an insurgency/cold war scenario you simply cannot justify that sacrifice long term.
Ukraine Conflict - Das Himmelfahrtskommando
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
According to Erdogan Putin is not budging on his conditions.
Also no demand for sanction lifting which is interesting.
Unless they consider it self evident.