pmp10
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Posts posted by pmp10
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Welp.
If that is going too far then I'm giving it 5 years until next episode set in Moldova. -
Apparently Macron was talking just talking to Putin.
After the previous 'personal assurances' and 'torture by talking' this must make for an awkward conversation. -
10 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:
So, no extraordinary sanctions.
Financial markets cut-off (Russia is prepared with reserves and they have a lot of gold mines)
Tech exports to Russia (Russia will have to buy from China or keep using own tech)
Sanctions on individuals (nothing new, will be spending more money in Turkey, Egypt, China, South America)
There was also the seizing of bank assets but that doesn't improve the response much.
No will in EU to cut SWIFT and energy sanctions also seem of the table.
Russian propaganda will have great time with this.Worse - what if Putin retaliates with energy sanctions of his own.
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36 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:
If Ukraine holds some parts of its territory by Monday I think it will be small miracle
Do surrounded pockets and big cities count?
I guess urban combat will be a good indication if Ukrainian population will resist. -
Seems Ukraine is losing airports all over the country to airborne landing and there is a rumor of a major para drop heading for Kiev.
At this rate the capital might not last until Monday. -
11 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:
This is why it is a mistake by Putin to get hia handa dirty over this much of the area, amd why there is no chance for occupation or permanent regime change.
The asymetric war has never been easier.
These munitions won't last forever.
And there is always a good chance that western response will crush Ukrainian will to resist. -
8 minutes ago, Azdeus said:
Wow, Russia invades the Ukraine, and the west is like;
"Thoughts and prayers you guys!
"
****
Precisely why this is happening.
If Ukraine folds within a week not even serious sanctions might happen.
The gamble is that the west will accept a quick win as a fait accompli.6 minutes ago, Gorth said:You didn't see his latest live performance on TV? Red faced and frothing at the mouth? It's a very, very angry man.
I thought a 'madman' act was put on display for better negotiation leverage.
Instead he must have twisted many arms to get Russian army to go forward with it.-
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Would explain mystery of the Kiev airport.
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Gunshots are reported around Kiev airport and Putin just said he has no plans to occupy the country.
This makes some crazy sense now, he is thinking regime change Kabul '79 style.
Also explains the names lists, troop dispositions and intelligence on the invasion dates.
Little wonder some in armed forces leaked that to the US, too bad it wasn't enough to dissuade him.
That would mean his expectation is easy collapse of resistance if not outright surrender after first clashes.-
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Putin orders military operations in Ukraine
Explosions are already reported in Kiev, might mean a full scale invasion instead of just grabbing Donetsk.-
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1 minute ago, Sarex said:
But those don't matter.
Right now they don't.
But if they see EU or NATO being useless things might change.-
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1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:
Literally no one in Europe wants any part of this train-wreck that Biden started. They all need Putin’s energy far more than they need our politics
Don't speak for the whole Europe on this.
In the east there will be much more willingness to impose sanctions.-
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1 hour ago, BruceVC said:
Do you think he will invade Ukraine outside of this?
I don't see how he can archive his objectives without it.
He seems to have no patience for slow strangulation and other effective options are occupation or making Ukraine permanently unstable.That is unless he flips on that 20-year long NATO membership suspension plan, but he shot that down hard yesterday.
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So recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk by Duma is complete but the question of borders was largely dodged.
Most likely leaving themselves a bargain chip for negotiations.
Or another escalation excuse.-
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Russian recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk republics has been officially announced.
No details yet, but arming of the separatists should be expected at a minimum.
Or they might skip a few escalation steps and move the Russian troops right in.This means Minsk accords are dead and dissected and EU will have to respond with sanctions.
The only question being if they will go beyond symbolic ones.-
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34 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:
That's Putins game, and he is making his intention clear to media, so France and Germany will make Ukraine to buckle in the talks with all 4 involved later today or later this week.
And if they don't?
Taking things public means he can no longer back down without something to show for this mess.So Putin committed to making the call today, there is only so much that last-minute diplomacy can do now.
Better yet, one recommendation was to use the pre-2014 borders which would mean that good deal of territory will need 'liberating' from Ukrainian 'occupation'. -
Seems like leaders of Luthanks and Donetks are right now in Moscow, publicly asking for official recognition.
That could mean that the next talks will be the final chance for a Minsk-based solution. -
11 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:
France and Germany though sure, since it was their diplomatic baby, even if they're largely sidelined in the current narrative in the anglosphere. They don't have any leverage over Ukraine to get them to implement though, not when the US and UK are shouting about compromise being treason.
That shouting can't last forever tho, media is bound to get bored eventually.
The diplomatic rumors I heard is that major backing down by Ukraine is only a matter of time and face-saving pretenses. -
8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:
Ukraine has buried the Minsk Accords already. They've publicly said they can't/ won't implement them on their side and they want the agreement replaced. At least formally, they probably accept that practically there won't be a renegotiation as they have no leverage.
And yet Russian diplomats keep insisting on implementing them, in the very least they are a useful wedge to drive between Ukraine and NATO.
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52 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:
They'll throw a wobbly about Russian peacekeepers moving in.
They'll do nothing about it except maybe some toys coming out of the cot. Doesn't make any practical difference anyway, that's the effective status quo already.
Moving troops into Donetsk would mean burying Minsk accords for good.
New agreement is unlikely to be made quickly without some application of violence.Besides, in this case the escalation scenario practically writes itself.
Regular artillery exchanges will no longer kill 'separatists' or 'little green men' but Russian soldiers.
And that of course demands retaliation.I don't see how NATO could ignore that.
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27 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
Why would this increase the likelihood of an invasion...Im confused by your point ?
NATO PoV is that these are Ukrainian provinces.
What will they call Russian 'peacekeepers' moving in?And more importantly what will they be willing to do about it.
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Russian duma requests official recognition of Donbass separatists.
Putin refers to situation there as genocide.We are two signatures away from a real test of a definition of an 'invasion'.
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9 hours ago, rjshae said:
You mean this was all just Putin's plan to make Ukrainians pay more for airplane tickets? Ah.
Damaging Ukrainian economy by making business there uninsurable might just be good enough.
All that is necessary is to drag this out. -
Ukraine has to allocate millions just to keep airlines flying.
If this panic spreading is a cynical game by the US then they are handing Putin a serious win.-
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Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues
in Way Off-Topic
Posted · Edited by pmp10
Sorry but you are effectively saying he will invade NATO while bogged down in Ukrainian insurgency.
I mean he might be crazy but there is still calculation behind his actions.
In fact, he seems to have estimated the western response pretty well.
And if it's the same Ukrainian government that was ruling the country last week?
Do you then isolate Ukraine that will be insisting that they are now fine with 'demilitarization', recognition of Crimea/separatists republic and never joining NATO?
What if Russian troops retreat and there is no need to occupy anything because the new Ukraine will have changed enough to their liking?