pmp10
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Posts posted by pmp10
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1 hour ago, Malcador said:
Remedy is handling the development , I believe
And they mentioned reusing Control tech for these.
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Another thing missed yesterday:
No tanks for Ukraine.That likely leaves total NATO contribution at the 5 Czech ones.
I doubt any aircraft or serious artillery will be provided for the same reasons.Most likely ends Ukrainian hopes for retaking of the south.
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Russia is rumored to be mobilizing reservists.
Also reworking the command structure.Pretty much buries all peace hopes at least until next Russian offensive plays-out.
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4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:
This is an extraordinarily interesting page from Price Wars by Rupert Russell. Cannot comment on its trustworthiness.
That looks like a part of the great European fracking revolution.
Happening any day now for the last decade.
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2 hours ago, bugarup said:
Anyone up for a little piece of official russia state propaganda this nice Monday morning, in case if anyone doubts about Bucha being an outlier rather than part of a plan? And if reads like something out of the third reich, it's not your Google Translate's fault. It's just as chilling in russian.
Yes, but that is propaganda.
It's never easy to tell how common views like this are in the Russian society and more importantly how much they are willing to suffer for that vision.There is a good article that this is only the beginning.
Personally I'm not convinced just yet. -
13 hours ago, Malcador said:
Poland has a couple hundred they can spare, no?
I'm sure that between Poland, Czech Republic and Bulgaria you could assemble a small tank army.
It's just that the operational ones are not spare and the spare ones are not operational.But for now it's not clear if numbers would be more than symbolic.
11 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:Didn't Red Alert comedian Zelensky just fire two generals? Usually a good indicator of winning...
That was more over alluded treason.
Ukraine is not so united in the south and Donbass as they have proven in the west and north-east.
The list of treasonous small-town mayors and police chiefs is also steadily growing. -
Rumors have it that post-soviet tanks will be delivered to Ukraine along with already promised APCs.
Plenty of junk T-72s around in eastern Europe I suppose but how do they plan to arrange replacements?
It's the MIGs problem all over again. -
7 hours ago, Malcador said:
https://ip-quarterly.com/en/one-mans-war-one-mans-choice
Interview with Fiona Hill about this situation
Just another case that this is somehow Putin's war so a choice of a one man.
The reality is his approval rating jumped and is now at 80%.The war might have been Putin's call, but like it or not, it is now Russia's war and majority embraces it.
Hoping for a quick coup to return old normal is a fantasy.
Even if you can beat Russia's armies you will not change the minds of its people.-
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10 hours ago, Agiel said:
[...] I dearly hope this generosity carries over into allowing Ukraine into the EU (I'm sure there will be loads of German, Dutch, and French farmers who won't appreciate a sudden flood of cheap agricultural goods in the common market), providing Marshall Plan-levels of financial aid, and rebuilding their economy to pre-war levels. I'd go further and say that to do less would be the greatest geopolitical betrayal this side of the Yalta agreement.
I'd really like to believe that (EU by spilled blood so to speak) but I have serious doubts this would be allowed.
We are talking a country poorer than Bulgaria, more corrupt than Romania, bigger than Poland and more conservative than Hungary.
And that was even before a destructive war.In other war news overshadowed by the gas currency payments:
UK plans on providing Ukraine with artillery and APCsPlenty of that available around eastern Europe so it's a bit odd to see UK test the waters with 'unfamiliar' military equipment.
But I suppose they are little affected by any retaliations.
Would also mean the first official hole in providing of 'defensive' support.-
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I'm no expert either.
But the few I follow generally stress the priority would be to build a modern airforce and air defense systems.
That involves cost that go far beyond javelins and stringers.Especially for countries that wouldn't provide a single truck or a 4x4. (leading to predictable buy-out of Toyota pickups in neighboring countries)
And then there was the whole MIG transfer debacle.So the way I see it - serious military hardware is off the table.
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6 minutes ago, Malcador said:
US populace will happily pay for their weaponry for a couple years ahead, at least.
No country is that generous, not even to allies.
Let alone a poor European backwater country that is distracting US from pivoting to Asia. -
6 hours ago, rjshae said:
Hypothetically speaking, suppose the Ukraine and Russia come to terms with some treaty terms and transfer of territory. What is to prevent Russia from spending the next five years fixing their armed forces and then just repeating the invasion?
Ukraine won't give up on NATO without security guarantees. The rumors are that Germany, Turkey and Italy will be involved in some promise of actual military deployment.
But frankly that crowd doesn't inspire much confidence.
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57 minutes ago, Malcador said:
Not necessarily.
This was on 1st week of war and the meeting took place in Ukrainian territory.
That's a powerful message, one that likely dissuaded any oligarch from interfering in war matters. -
2 hours ago, Gfted1 said:
Dont leave me hanging, link?
If it's the one I saw then it would violate board's ToS.
In case no western media picks it up, you can easily find it by googling 'Russian pow abuse'.It's an open secret that Russian PoWs are not treated kindly.
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An interesting little fact that went under-reported:
A few day ago 'United Russia' has opened an office in Mariupol even while fighting for the city center was still taking place.
That could mean captured southern Ukrainian land is meant for straight up annexation Crimea-style.-
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48 minutes ago, Elerond said:
That is lie considering that they use artillery and missiles against residential areas in cities that they are sieging .
Yes, but these areas are being actively defended.
And let's be honest - Russians are capable of much worse than they have done so far.29 minutes ago, Elerond said:But they didn't shoot military targets. As they shot oil refinery and communication tower, they are strategically important targets in case Russia wants to continue their invasion, but they would not be important targets if they actually wanted just to 'liberate' Donbas
The tower was hit shortly before Biden started a speech in Poland.
Like previous long-range strike on international volunteers this was likely meant to send a political message.-
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4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
Latest report by US should be few days old, and yes, I know that they are not independent party, but compared to Ukrainian estimate of 15000, and Russian estimate of 498, their number seems to me the most plausible.
Also the latest numbers from Ukraine are now out. And Their soldier casualties are probably underestimated as well, but we will probably never know by how much
and comparison of Russian casualties by Ukraine sources. (which are as you say probably inflated by some %)
The 500 Russians and 1300 Ukrainians might be self-reported numbers but they are three and two week old respectively.
And that is assuming their MoD can be trusted, which I wouldn't since they refused to update the numbers since release.The US estimations showed that Russians have lost 10% combat strength by now which would mean 10k KIAs is plausible.
But when it comes to Ukraine all we know is that early on they were trading proportionally 2 to 1 in that metric.
Unless that changed that could place them at around 20k dead by now. -
Turns out an expansion is in the works
I was pretty sure this was dead given the lethargic patching. -
1 hour ago, Chilloutman said:
so what do you think his plan is now? Nuke it? Doubt it would help him in any way, quite contrary. Bleed out for months? Does not sounds too good either
It's not at all clear that Russians are the ones bleeding more.
We don't know the Ukrainian losses and red army is very artillery heavy.1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:He already conceedes on a regime change and full land bridge to Crimea and Moldova.
I wouldn't bet on the land bridge part just yet.
He will soon control everything from Kherson to Mariupol and that is enough for a bridge and two more separatist republics.
It will all depend on how long can Russia grind it out. -
16 hours ago, Hurlsnot said:
why is it just the men?
Reproductive replaceability.
1 hour ago, Gorth said:As for the current war, not sure there is a lot to negotiate about at the moment, as I doubt Putin himself knows what he wants... since he obviously can't have what he originally wanted and doesn't seem to have a plan b
Pretty sure we are at plan C by now but that doesn't mean he has no objectives.
Even if Ukraine cannot be subjugated on this occasion there is always the long run.Take Chechnia for example.
They have won their first war with Russia and it still did them little good in the end. -
With this attitude this war isn't going to end soon.
Not only is good part of the country occupied but almost 10% of population has fled.
No referendum can have validity in these conditions, the whole idea must be just a stalling tacticBesides that, polls showed 80% of Ukrainians were unwilling to even give-up on Crimea.
He likely knows they will outright reject any Russian demands for stripping Ukraine of more territory. -
According to Erdogan Putin is not budging on his conditions.
Also no demand for sanction lifting which is interesting.
Unless they consider it self evident. -
32 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:
I still don't see what endgoal for Russia in this is. Until they basically bomb Ukraine to the ground they will not get much of what they want. I can see forgoing NATO being only think Zelensky accepts.
Political control of Ukraine.
Warsaw-pact style if they can, Chechnya style if they must. -
3 hours ago, Katphood said:
What did I tell you folks?
Zelensky has been dropping hints to it for a while.
Made no difference to Putin as he shot down peace talks on 'insufficient progress' .
Besides NATO there will also be the EU and entire political future of Ukraine.And there is always the problem that Ukraine will still expect security guarantees elsewhere, even if it's hard to imagine who would provide them.
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Ukraine Conflict - Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
Ukraine's economy to halve
Lost roughly 20 years of development.