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Belorussians are on the move

 

2 hours ago, Elerond said:

You don't necessary need airfields, fighter jets are capable to take off from 200m-300m long straight road and they don't need much more to land.

Road fueling and rearming is basic training in Finnish airforce, because expectation is that enemy is capable to destroy our airfields. I don't know what kind training they have done in Ukraine's airforce, but I would except that have trained towards situation where they lose access to their airfields

Okay, but you'd still at least want radar for command and control and I assume that is largely gone now.
Then again, maybe NATO would provide that as part of intelligence.

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Some 70 combat aircrafts are to be transferred to Ukraine.
That's crazy, do they even have pilots for them let alone intact airfields?

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14 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

In two days Putin will go full Grozny.

He might have already.

A massive fireball has just erupted during bombing of Kiev.
Clearly Putin is done with hearts and minds.

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22 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

What I am scared of is that Russia really might be getting ass kicked, what would that do with Putin? 

He would escalate but there is plenty of non-nuclear options at his disposal.
From cyber-attacks to turning off that gas-flow, we are a really long way from anything nuclear happening.

And if the Russian troops are really held back they will unfortunately dispense with rules of engagement they were following so far.

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10 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

 

Where have you seen this? I'm trying and failing to find this being reported.

Officially claimed by Russian MoD I believe.
Chances are it is about as reliable as the Ukrainian one. 

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45 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Anyways. I'm kinda tired of all of this and I wouldn't mind going back to normal again. For all I care, we could forget about most of this if russia just pulls out now and leaves them alone.

There really is no 'normal' to get back to anymore.
Putin is past the point of backing down and sanctions will have to stay in place for a long time to come.

And far more important is that he made some top European politicians look ridiculous. 

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26 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Oh wow, I've seen none of those. Then again I wasn't going out of my way to search for the stuff.

Personally I loved the one where Russians were getting their tanks stolen by gypsies.
I get that there is Ukrainian morale to consider and everyone loves to help, but the world is doing Ukrainians a disservice.

There will be one rude awakening one day that no only are they being badly beaten but are also dying for a hopeless cause.
That's how 'stab in the back' legends are born and cause issues for generations.
 

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And Kiev has been encircled, or at least the city's Mayor claims so.
That western aid is really unlikely to ever reach places where it's really needed. 

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28 minutes ago, Malcador said:

All I keep seeing are wrecked columns, annihilated groups, Russian forces demoralized, etc., heh.

Selective reporting and wishful thinking that results in misidentification.

7 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

There's very few news about proceedings in the south/south east near Mariupol, because the Ukrainians are getting hammered there.

To be fair position of Mariupol is not really defensible. 

16 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

I'm a professor with a doctorate in international relations. My academic focus is in international security and conflict, and international rivalries.

I'm sorry but is this allowed?
I thought we were all armchair-experts only?  

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And first negotiations start.
Not sure what the point is, Lukashenko can't refuse joining in at this point and Putin will demand almost complete surrender. 
Maybe they just want to deny them the propaganda opportunity that all talk offers were rejected?

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Kharkiv is secure after all.
Another case of recon element launching a probe attack that was reported as full scale assault. 

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21 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

I'd believe that when I see it- it's a city of ~1.5 million people and you can't just waltz in. There's fighting in the city centre, but then the fighting in Kiev got very close to the centre

Sure, and footage only shows Russian recon elements at this point but let's not pretend they need every single cellar to surrender before moving on.

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Seems Kharkiv is about to fall if it didn't already. 
With Lukaszenka about to commit Belarussian troops this is not looking good for Ukraine. 

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11 minutes ago, bugarup said:

Did anyone than Assad express support to what that shriveled voodoo doll made from boil ridden rabid pig's scrotum is doing? 

I think Iran called it NATO caused.
I'm sure there will be the usual Cuba/Venezuela and a few minor others taking Russian friendly stance.

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

So what do you think is his goal next once the Ukrainian military is defeated ? Would he implement  a puppet government or maybe an open  Russian military  occupation?

I don't know, at his early point he may not either.
If the primary objective is no NATO involvement and demilitarization then there is no need to occupy anything.
All that is necessary is to force the change of constitution, wreck any military equipment, impose arms inspectors and fly-overs.
But I don't see how he can pull a 'denazification' without a months of man-hunt by loyal troops.

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So you have been correct in almost all your predictions and especially you have been right in the big ones like " will Putin be foolish enough to invade Ukraine " .

Yeah, no.
I just made more of them then others.
I just got unhealthily obsessed, my prediction record is about that of a coin-toss.

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5 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Did any of you see Putin's statement addressed to the Ukrainian military, telling them to stop fighting his troops and to defect to his side and fight alongside his troops against the Ukrainian government? I honestly believe Putin has completely lost touch with reality and is now believing his own propaganda as being real.

There have been numerous reports of Russians using Ukrainian uniforms so at the very least it makes good 'psyops' sense as Zor would put it.
For all we know it can be true.
Maybe elements of Ukrainian army might have really defected and none was keen to publicly admit it.
Maybe in confusion friendly fire has been taken to extreme and the dead labeled as Russians.

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Interesting, might be geographical difference then.

I guess we will see soon enough. 
We are nearing 48 hours now and shock and awe ought to be letting off now.
I would expect resistance to either start hardening or collapsing at this point.

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12 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

One intersting point on refugees. 

So far all the men capable of fighting are staying in Ukrainee and even some people working in Poland are packing to return to Ukraine. 

Funny because I didn't have this impression.
Social media is full of fit military-age men running for the border and no Ukrainian men in my professional environment is rushing back either.

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56 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Italian prime minister Mario Draghi successfully secured a carve out for Italian luxury goods from the EU's package of economic sanctions against Nato, EU dip tells me. 'Apparently selling Gucci loafers to oligarchs is more of a priority than hitting back at Putin,' source adds.

 

EDIT: Can anybody here confirm, or this is some kind of Onion type news?

Italian Luxury goods and Belgian Diamonds were rumored to be the sticking points in imposing EU sanctions yesterday.
Quite ironic that they would sanction oligarchs in EU but refuse to sanction products intended for them.

And another sanction that will really sting - Russia is off Eurovision. 

And on the war front it seems that a third of Russian troops is now committed.
If there is any hope for Ukraine it would be that after spearhead units are engaged, the reminder of Russians will turn out too demoralized to fight effectively. 

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2 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

I don't mean they can defeat them themselves but they still have quite big military which would be huge asset in those fights.

Sizable maybe, but I doubt if sheer numbers count for much in the era of precision munitions.
I don't think we have the morale for human wave attacks either.

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Just now, Chilloutman said:

I think Poland begs to differ. 

Oh I wish.

Latest war games rated Poland at one week of active resistance against Russia without NATO involvement.
Jokes were running that assumption was Russians needed 3 days to sober up. 

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6 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

All those countries have professional armies. If they didn't have problem fighting in Afghan they surely can go fight in Ukraine. 

No army in eastern Europe comes close to Russian capability.
At best there could be a symbolic 'let's die together' stand / suicide pact with Ukrainian troops.

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well if our armies are only able to fight goat herders than whats the point of them?

Symbolic contributions to NATO.

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39 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Mamie !!! Stop being a " commie loving subversive "

You mustnt support Putin, he is bad. He lied and we dont like people who are warmongers and who lie 

Besides we both know who the real enemy is....and the war against SJWism is much worse and  serious than anti-Western rhetoric 

You sir, are an insult to the art of trolling.

Back on topic - Ukrainian side is growing more and more desperate.
Handing out assault rifles, stopping men up to 65 from leaving the country, calling for Molotov ****tail defense of cities.
And with combat reported in Kiev finally this:

 

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8 hours ago, kanisatha said:

The Russians are going to be bogged down in an insurgency everywhere within the country except the Donbas, and amazing right now are being supported by only a handful of other countries with the overwhelming majority being against them.

[...]

If Putin gets away with his naked aggression in Ukraine, in the very near future we will see China invading Taiwan and Russia invading the Baltic states, and very likely simultaneously in coordination.

Sorry but you are effectively saying he will invade NATO while bogged down in Ukrainian insurgency.

I mean he might be crazy but there is still calculation behind his actions.
In fact, he seems to have estimated the western response pretty well.

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Even if somehow Putin gets those "surrender" documents, nobody in the world will see them as legitimate and so they won't carry any weight in international law. So the physical implementation of any such agreements will still have to rely on the presence of significant Russian occupation forces long-term.

And if it's the same Ukrainian government that was ruling the country last week?
Do you then isolate Ukraine that will be insisting that they are now fine with 'demilitarization', recognition of Crimea/separatists republic and never joining NATO?
What if Russian troops retreat and there is no need to occupy anything because the new Ukraine will have changed enough to their liking?

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Welp.
If that is going too far then I'm giving it 5 years until next episode set in Moldova. 

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Apparently Macron was talking just talking to Putin.
After the previous 'personal assurances' and 'torture by talking' this must make for an awkward conversation.