pmp10
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Posts posted by pmp10
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2 hours ago, Malcador said:
Media here is banging the drum that they are outgunned and on the verge of collapse again as well.
They well know that nothing in this range will be happening.
It's like the HIMARS situation - they said 40 would be enough to slow-down the Russians and so will receive 4. -
1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:
Seems Germany, Italy, etc. are having their gas suppliers paying in RUB for gas.
Practically all remaining customers admitted it in various press releases.
You can find all of them with key weasel words of 'following EC recommendation and paying in Euros'.
They know full well that they are crediting a new ruble account not foreseen in their contracts. -
More rumors emerge of Ukraine being badly outgunned.
If the morale problems are true that could explain the messy Ukrainian counter-attack at Sievierodonetsk. -
So yesterday a grain export terminal in Mikolaiv and Kiev's railway yard were deliberately targeted by Russia.
Seems the appeals from Scholz and Macron to spare the world hunger are just giving Putin ideas. -
Putin plans to out-attrition the west.
He might not be wrong about western commitment, eastern Europe is suffering almost as much inflation as Russia. -
Biden wrote a short op-ed on Ukraine in NYT.
Sounds like the strategy is just to salvage what is left of the country. -
6 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
Slovakia less than month ago was whining, that we will pay to Russia in rubles for their gas. In less than a month a second biggest **** in our government, who wanted to pay in rubles, managed to make deals around the world for the same price as current Russian price, that we will be cutting off 60% of all Russian gas imports on June 1st 2022. If our useless **** in government are able to make such advantageous deals, everyone can...
What makes you think you are not paying in rubles by now?
EC refused to clarify their stance on whether this violates sanctions.
Plenty of statements about 'following EU recommendations' were made but this might have become a synonym for paying in rubles. -
Russian passports now on offer in occupied Ukrainian south-east.
Of note is that Kherson region was included and even mentioned by name.
A very strong 'here to stay' message from Putin.-
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So interestingly after (imo questionable) suggestions that Ukraine could win the war a number of voices have been raised urging them not to.
Kissinger just joined that group after Macron, Draghi among others.They cannot possibly believe that Russia is willing to retreat from taken land, so what exactly are they playing at?
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3 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
And current Ukrainian casualties at the East
Reported Russians daily losses are approx 100-250.
These given Russian losses are almost certainly general casualties, whereas Zelensky spoke of fatalities.
If we assume the classic 3 wounded to 1 killed ratio in casualties, then Ukraine is suffering 1 to 1 KIAs while on the defensive.
Not a good sign for any offensive actions. -
Final azovstal defenders are to surrender soon.
If Putin plans to pursue any off-ramps this would be the best occasion to declare victory.-
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31 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
But you misread Snyder. Putin has an out even if he doesn't admit defeat. Of course he will never admit defeat. He will claim victory even if he loses. The press will be behind him, as it is now. Anyone who stands against that will be in trouble.
Let's just say I don't think that 'out' is workable for him.
There are limits to what can be spun to the Russian society.
Complete withdrawal, admitting war guilt, financial reparations would all be clear signs of a major defeat that would end Putin's rule.
That's about what Ukraine would settle for right now. -
16 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
And you dont think a protracted war of attrition in Ukraine and a collapsed Russian economy will also lead to political instability ?
I'm not convinced that Russian economy is collapsing as advertised.
For example ruble was supposed to have crashed hard by now.
Instead new gas payment scheme will keep it strong for a long time to come.It doesn't help that all the predictions run very far into the future.
The war may be over and sanctions lifted long before anyone has a chance to check their effectiveness. -
6 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
@kanisathamay be interested in a 17-point thread by Timothy Snyder on the question of giving Putin an "out". Snyder's point is that Putin always has it, as he is a dictator.
Not at these stakes he doesn't.
An 'out' of admitting defeat leads to him losing power and possibly the whole political system becoming unstable. -
46 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:
Seems already France, Italy and Germany are in some talks on how to close this diplomatically.
How?
I don't think they have any stick to force Ukraine into conceding lost ground.
I guess they could make some EU reconstruction package conditional, but that would meet political backlash.-
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3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:
Zelenskyi & co failed to strengthen their military positions and prepare adequately before the war started, because they wanted to avoid provoking Russians. But as the officer pointed out, "not provoking Russians is impossible, so this was a big failure from Ukraine.
There was even a claim by one analyst that Ukraine could have won the war if only it mobilized in December.
But the reality is that despite military aid in the billions some of their soldiers are still serving near the front without rifles.
I don't see how they could effectively arm mobilized force back then.As for provoking Russia - it's never that simple as mobilization carries a major responsibility for escalating conflicts in the eyes of international community.
The narrative that Ukraine somehow forced Putin to invade is doing rounds even now.
It would be so much better received if this could have been sold as a preemptive attack. -
Presumably the dug-out.
Might be the soldiers moved once it was already committed to a strike.
Still not exactly a marvelous showing for something hyped to be a game-changer. -
And on the technical side of new weaponry being introduced:
First video of switchblade use has surfaced.Seems surprisingly... focused?
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2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:
@pmp10: Fair point, although "I see absolutely no purpose or advantage to it" can be applied to a lot of decisions made by Russia(ns) recently. And therein lies another point: as a lot of commentators, both political and otherwise, have pointed out at least here in the north of Europe, Russia's actions don't necessarily stem from the kind of motivations we regard as purposeful or advantageous. (I've seen plenty of actions that I can't regard as reasonable from any motivations, but I'm not entirely sure about this one.)
I'd say vast majority of their actions can be explained by following Russia's own logic, imperial policy or a result of evident screw-ups.
Deliberate appeal to Italy's antisemitism seems to fit none of these. -
14 minutes ago, Malcador said:
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-705985
Putin apologized to Bennett for Lavrov's remarks. Probably not going to change too much, I feel.
But only in a private conversation.
The Israel thing is so weird, it was clearly not an accident or meant for a domestic audience as Lavrov interview was for Italian TV station and they doubled-down afterwards.
I see absolutely no purpose or advantage to it.-
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1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:
They are slowly winning back some land lost, in last few days, though. Most notably around the Kharkiv region, where they got back a loads of land, which was occupied since February 24th. (Land north of Chuhuiv and west of Siverskyi Donec river, up to town of Staryi Saltiv - advance of almost 40km in a single day during Ukrainian counter-offensive).
That's great but Russian offensive there was stopped over a month ago.
I really don't think much value is put in Kharkiv at this point, except maybe as a opportunity for cheap terror strikes*.Whereas Russians were just recently making gains around Kherson, politically far more important target.
* - Still ongoing strikes, Ukrainian gains have not been enough to push Russian artillery far enough from even the city center.
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9 hours ago, Malcador said:
I believe a Polish official had something similar, but can't find a decent source at the moment - maybe they meant taken in this war rather than 2014
You likely mean the polish president. The line was that no territorial loss of Ukraine will be recognised.
That position (and the UK one) is just diplomatic grandstanding. Everyone understands that Ukraine has little prospect of winning back land lost this war, to say nothing of Crimea or DNR/LPR.
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23 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
That's an interesting choice of word, there, "sacrifices". It most certainly would amount to a major defeat.
But if we disregard religious meanings, sacrifice would amount to something like "giving up something valuable for the sake of other considerations". What sort of valuable things (for itself) has Russia sacrificed? Certainly not its own soldiers. Ordnance and other equipment, I suppose, yes. I don't think it has exactly "sacrificed" its credibility and reputation, it has simply lost it.
So far some 10% of their GDP.
I'd also argue that prestige of their armed forces will be diminished because of this war.
And yes - I imagine they would think of both as a sacrifice.-
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Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
European Commission will recommend Ukraine for EU candidate status
I wonder if western Europe will want to risk it.