pmp10
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Posts posted by pmp10
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US allows Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela.
A more practical squeeze on Russia than oil price cap.Not a big deal in the near-term, but if successful this can start making a difference a year from now.
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Seems Ukrainian power grid is nearing the breaking point:
24 hours of blackout for the whole country is announced after missile strikes today.This also means no power in Moldova and stoppage of any pipelines that were still pushing gas and oil to the EU.
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Among the recent UK arms package to Ukraine are the Sea King helicopters.
These would be the first western aircraft delivered to Ukraine, even if intended for not-combat usage. -
16 hours ago, Lexx said:
Well, that one guy f-ed up and killed all his fellow soldiers.
Pretty sure that was deliberate.
Sure - he got them all killed, but surrendering is much less of an option after that. -
Turkey to demand insurance on oil tanker crossing the straits.
With EU oil sanctions soon to take force that is a little surprising.Especially if any of the oil price-cap plans see the light of day.
1 hour ago, Gorth said:Lets see if justice is blind and works both ways...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63676446
No, the irony isn't lost on me, but lets see if the west can truly hold itself to a higher standard than those they condemn...
That one was partially recorded.
One Russian protested the surrender by running out guns blazing with predictable consequences. -
That and old soviet high-voltage substations need custom-made replacements.
Supposedly it takes months to build them. -
I wouldn't rush to conclusion on that one.
Chance that a missile missed it target by hundreds of kilometers but somehow managed to hit people is miniscule.And if this was a deliberate message then Polish villagers are a poor medium to deliver it.
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23 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:
European Commision proposes 18 billions EUR help to Ukraine. Only Hungary is in opposition according to latest reports from news in local broadcast in Slovakia.
That's the EU part of 2023 funding for Ukraine.
Unlike the US funding this one is prone to getting 'bureaucratically stuck', the 9 billions promised in May won't be fully delivered until next year. -
1 hour ago, kanisatha said:
The most Ukraine will accept is a return to the pre-war status quo, but even that only with full compensation from Russia the damages of the war.
I'm sure that major military victory is their 'hope-for' scenario but it's very unlikely to happen.
In practice they continue fighting this war to deter Russia from doing this again. -
30 minutes ago, kanisatha said:
But I don't see anything in that article saying the US is looking to freeze the conflict; only that they want to push for peace talks, AND with Ukraine at those talks in a position of strength. That's a far cry from saying the US wants Ukraine to cede their territory to the Russians.
Frozen conflict is the only realistic outcome of negotiations at this point.
Putin won't give-up his annexations and Ukrainians aren't even ready to give-up on Crimea.39 minutes ago, Malcador said:With those conditions, wonder what's there to talk about
Precisely.
Same for the Russian side and the non-negotiable territorial integrity of recently annexed regions.
Ukrainian position is simply easier (and safer) to soften. -
More rumors that US would seek to freeze the conflict if Ukraine retakes Kherson.
Strategically it makes some sense as it would secure Odessa and I bet they don't expect more Ukrainian gains.How they hope to stop Russia from launching another invasion is a complete mystery.
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US is starting to push Ukraine towards negotiations.
They should know there is only one 'diplomatic' outcome possible at this point. -
1 hour ago, kanisatha said:
And despite all that revenue from oil and gas, per the IMF's estimation, Russia's GDP will shrink by as much as 6% for 2022 itself, much, much worse for 2023.
Their latest estimations for Russian real GDP contraction are of 3,4% this year and 2,3% the next.
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Grain transports leave Odessa in defiance of Russian withdrawal from the deal.
We will see what their reaction is.-
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The plan to cap Russian oil price is being 'reworked'.
The last form of economic leverage that west has over Russia is not looking so hot anymore.
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According the IMF Ukraine needs 3-5 billion $ per month over 2023.
This was already understood for some time and US (and even EC) has occasionally talked about moving from aid packages to regular subsidies.A good test if west has staying power in this war.
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There were rumors that they weren't about to stop at the 300k mark.
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Russian prank call to Ukrainian official has recently been leaked.
Among a lot of minor details there is a very interesting statement that Ukraine is about to run out of S300 and BUK missiles.Apparently they have been strongly pushing US and NATO for the old HAWK systems.
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1 hour ago, Malcador said:
Re: Drones. I am a bit puzzled at the fuss about them, past couple of days my local media has been going on as if these things will annihilate Ukraine. Bolton's probably aroused as hell, have an excuse to go bomb Iran over this (something something rule based international order)
They might be just cheap and numerous enough to wreck Ukrainian power infrastructure and exhaust anti-aircraft munitions.
And chances are they are just the beginning as Iranian ballistic missiles are rumored to follow soon.Either way, they are a largely unexpected boost to Russian capabilities.
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3 hours ago, BruceVC said:
But the point is the EU is carrying a cost and helping the Ukrainians. Thats not the impression you created?
Suffice to say I think considering capability and responsibility EU has nothing to be proud of.
Or at least so far.We will soon see if it can at all adapt to a longer war.
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32 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
I think I can see a slight difference in numbers between that and what @pmp10 claims.
Not really once you realize that most of his entries are not refuges related and CARE / REACT are funds already spent elsewhere, which EU graciously allowed to be reallocated at the cost to initial intended recipients.
Elerond only point is that EU helped fund the internal refugees in Ukraine, which I admit is not what I had in mind. -
19 hours ago, BruceVC said:
Isnt the EU helping with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, isnt there a cost to that?
EU?
No. It failed to find a single cent to account for millions of Ukrainian refugees.
Individual countries? Sure, but that doesn't get the EU off the hook.-
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US is growing frustrated over EUs inaction.
They are still not getting it that they will have to do this alone.
Ukraine Conflict
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
In an interesting twist NATO reaffirms that Ukraine can join at some unspecified point.
The subject was entirely avoided on the last NATO summit and the matter seemed to be settled.