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pmp10
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Leaks continue:
Russia is planning to recruit another 400k for the war this year.Preferably quietly with the help of regional authorities, but I wouldn't exclude another draft if they think it necessary.
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Another interesting assessment from the leaked documents:
Russia can withstand sanctions for at least another year.Which would mean that even at a minimum they have the potential to drag it out until US elections.
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Apparently the 9 new Ukrainian brigades trained in the west are ready:
That's pretty surprising as the leaked documents showed that most of them hasn't even started training before March.
The original plan was to provide some 3 months of training for each of them. -
3 hours ago, Malcador said:
Well at least with that announcement, won't have to hear Melnyk crying.
Politics moving to twitter.
For context: Stoltenberg made a far reaching comment that all NATO members have agreed to admit Ukraine.For a second it gave the impression that something more than the 2008 "timeline: never" promise was on offer.
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Macron is trying to set up peace talks with the help of China.
Doesn't even want to wait for autumn, very likely all done behind the back of US.At this rate that facade of western-unity won't last much longer.
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9 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
This one is pretty interesting. Prigozhin sugested, that Russia should stop war and declare all objectives of SMO as fulfilled.
Might be the first public feeler from Russia about freezing the war.
But for now it is coming pretty far from the Kremlin.Does anyone know how this was taken in Russia?
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According to leaked documents US expects limited gains in Ukrainian offensive.
Seems consistent with previous predictions of a stalemate in 2023.The real question is what happens afterwards.
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And the results of China visits are now in.
Far from convincing Xi to dump Russia, Macron was convinced Europe should dump US.Or maybe he was just looking for an excuse to get back to his old position.
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1 hour ago, Lexx said:
Apparently the leaks are barely anything. Just some numbers about KIA and a map. Funny though, apparently someone photoshopped the KIA numbers on the photos to show less dead on russia side and way more dead on ukraine side. Saw the before and after photos, and you really need to smoke a lot of copium to believe the fake.
There was one thing of some worth in the training and equipment plan for 9 new Ukrainian brigades.
According to the leaked document these were clearly not going to be ready for April.But chances are that Russians already knew that from other sources.
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A few diplomatic hints as to what may lay ahead in the future:
Ukraine is not about to get any plans for NATO membership
But is dropping hints it might discuss the status of Crimea
Now we see if Russia responds in some way.
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Zelensky visited Warsaw today.
Besides the usual talking points and a minor arms 'contract' there was one interesting statement made by Polish president:QuoteThere is no question of any negotiation over the heads of Ukrainians.
There has been speculation that Ukraine will try to resist freezing of the war and this is the first move in gathering political support.
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After XI's visit in Russia the EU is hoping for Chinese help in winding-down the war.
It starts with mixed messages as VDL warns about consequences of Chinese 'decisions'.
In a few days she and Macron will travel to Beijing, where I bet she will play the bad cop.Along with visits from Sanchez and Borrell this is quite the effort to sway (or in the very least probe) the Chinese stance.
I wonder if the visit in Moscow scared them or gave them hope. -
Another article suggesting we might be heading for a forever war.
If true there will be no freezing of this conflict come fall/winter.
Or at least not on conditions that would allow Ukrainian long-term survival. -
Wrong phrasing on my part but I don't think giving out this information was terribly smart.
The exact Russian capability to produce/refurbish equipment was subject to a lot of speculation on minimal basis so having numbers from the source is quite useful.Even if they come with the usual caveats of politician cherry-picking data they find convenient.
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So Putin let slip an interesting little detail recently.
He claimed to produce over 1600 tanks in 3 years.If this number is credible that would likely amount to over 500 tanks produced, refurbished and modernized per annum.
For this year it would only be twice of what Ukraine is expected to receive, but in case of a forever-war only US has the capability to match. -
They still admitted to some other forms of on-going air force training so I wouldn't discount it just yet.
This isn't first time this rumor is floated either. -
More reports that Ukrainian pilots are training on Mirage fighters in France.
There might be some truth to it as it's still unclear why Ukraine is not as demanding of France as they have been of Germany. -
With winter officially over it is a good moment to summaries the energy war.
So in short term it clearly failed.The European gas storage levels are still over 60% and are unlikely to drop much by now.
And that's partially because the winter was second warmest on record.
Consequently the demand dropped and gas prices are back to 2021 levels.
Of course it still has a nasty effects of driving up prices and inflation but it is no longer enough to shake-up the politics in Europe.
I'd say that barring a record-cold winter it is now unlikely EU will change its policy over Russian energy.-
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14 hours ago, Malcador said:
Whoops, wrong Tweet
The official position is that it has been clipped out of context.
Supposedly he only spoke about 'west in general' and not Poland, also meant 'war with Russia in the eventual future' not this one.
Besides the idea is absurd, Poland is way too soft to fight even if it had the means or independence to do so.The really curious part is if this clip was made by Russians or Ukrainians.
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2 hours ago, bugarup said:
Poland does not need to "stake" anything, its security is dependent on Ukraine's survival, because Poland knows way too well what sort of neighbour russia is.
Precisely all the more reason to consider what happens if it cannot save Ukraine.
On one hand - Poland runs a rearmament program that clearly shows lack of trust in NATO.
On the other - a growing lack of military capabilities that will take over a decade to fill. -
5 hours ago, Malcador said:
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-poland-russia-war-jets-migs-6d843ccbd50fef5f96091a5bff8f3e01
Guess the MiGs may happen this time. Although, still not sure how useful these will be
It's better than nothing given the Ukrainian air losses but at these numbers it just buys them a few more months of limited air presence.
Politically US already announced it means nothing in regard to ever providing F16s.On a side note it was pretty funny hearing US praised Poland for 'punching about its weight' on Ukraine.
The country is practically staking its security on Ukrainian survival and will be in serious trouble if that fails. -
The 'ratio' obsession at Bakhmut looks like a new 'body count' from Vietnam.
You can arrive at any number you want to.
One OSINT type, visiting the place with Kofman, calculated it at close to 1:1 for example.-
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9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:
No way was Bakhmut unassailable. It's a small/ medium city in a valley with a river running through it- better than what's behind it up to Slaviansk/ Kramatorsk but it was never a great defensive position. Now it's outright bad- high ground on both sides held by the enemy and most supply across a muddy field. Which of course also means the Russians shouldn't have so much trouble taking it...
They mostly meant level of fortifications, apparently they have been steadily build-up since 2014 precisely to inflict sever losses on would-be attacker.
Mind you, these impressions were given last year, some time before Lysychansk happened.
Ukrainian morale was running high back then and judgments were overly optimistic. -
17 minutes ago, Lexx said:
I mean, isn't it kinda Captain Obvious stuff that less elite units are dying in Bakhmut, if russians only send in the street meat? Once retreated, those same forces will still keep coming, just in a different place.
Not just that but there is a very real chance that Bakhmut is as good as it get's for Ukrainian defenses.
Some first person accounts considered the city practically unassailable.Telling Ukraine to retreat without suggesting a better location to hold the line is of little help.
Ukraine Conflict - The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
Ukraine is trying to lower expectations for the offensive.
Makes sense as they likely lack the necessary means but are politically forced to go ahead.
There have been diplomatic signals that they will only get this one shot before west starts to negotiate.