pmp10
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Posts posted by pmp10
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10 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
18 more HIMARS going to Ukraine as a response to mobilization and “referenda”.
If that is the whole response then not even US is willing to violate the no-tanks taboo.
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4 hours ago, Lexx said:
I saw speculations that there must be 1 bomb that failed to detonate, since there are 4 pipelines, but we only had 3 explosions.
Also possible that this one line was deliberately left intact.
That remaining NS2 line can still supply Germany.I bet that if other pipelines are stopped this will be the first one Gazprom will be willing to restart.
At a price of course. -
1 hour ago, Lexx said:
But why would Russia do it in this case? Aren't those exact pipes for the transport between Germany and Russia? How would sabotaging benefit them here? Or are we still on the "Gazprom pretends there are real issues for not delivering gas"-stage?
They could have multiple reasons:
- warn the west about things to come if they don't force Ukraine to the negotiating table
- pretend to be the first victim of the upcoming pipeline ripper (definitely not the perpetrator, no sir)
- divide NATO with accusations and conspiracy theories (was it US? was it Poland?)
- panic the EU markets to rally the slowly dropping gas prices
- punish Germany for taking over Russian energy assets
And it's not like the pipelines were looking to be of much use in the short term anyway.
Doesn't mean they did it of course, but the benefits are there.
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37 minutes ago, Lexx said:
I've heard two versions about it now:
1. It was America, because they don't want Germany to drop the sanctions in the future, and
2. It was Russia, because Germany wanted to re-purpose the pipelines for gas trade with the nordic countries (Norway etc).
My personal opinion on the matter is ... I have no idea.
We will almost certainly find out in time.
If it's Russia it won't be an isolated case, incidentally Baltic pipe is set to open soon.
If it isn't Russia the news will leak sooner or later. -
Over the last 24 hours both Nord Stream pipelines have sprung mysterious leaks.
Plenty of vulnerable gas pipelines in the area, especially the ones from Norway.
Energy war escalates. -
1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:
This will be a one big hot spot and everything might be on the table.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
I doubt anything will happen over Kherson or Zaporizhzhia that Russians have never taken.Threaten Sevastopol however and we might just see tactical nukes deployed.
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Interesting reactions to Putin's nuclear saber rattling:
Zelenskyy thinks that Putin isn't bluffing.
US warns Russia over nuclear weapons use via private channels.So what options do they have except let him win?
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A good RUSI commentary on western response to mobilization.
That response will be a even better indication of the future than the handling of upcoming energy squeeze.-
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1 hour ago, Gorgon said:
They want to have an ace left to play, and they also don't have that many leopards.
If that was it they wouldn't need to stop that transfer of Spanish Leo 2s to Ukraine.
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Ukraine is focusing on getting western tanks.
Strange priority given the circumstances.They must be desperate to break that political limitation on armaments.
If Russian mobilization can't get them at least Leopard 1s they are in serious trouble.-
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EU finally pays their due in grain export deal.
New sanction interpretation will allow the transport of coal and fertilizers through EU.More loopholes and exemptions.
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1 hour ago, BruceVC said:
So when Russia invaded Ukraine what should have been the Wests response in your opinion?
Decisive.
Experts should have seen by April that sanctions (at least as implemented) were never going to work.
Putin is not the only one to double-down on failure.-
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34 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:
Its not because theyre getting their asses kicked by Ukraine?
And how much ass-kicking would Ukraine do without assistance?
Military position of Ukraine is direct result of what the west will and will not do. -
38 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
What do you mean when you say " their soft power has failed " ...
I'll spare everyone another rant on making Russia a 'pariah state' or crushing its economy with 'unprecedented sanctions'.
Suffice to say that all that careful escalation management resulted in Russian mobilization.The sudden interest in security council makes me think that not a single thing has been learned.
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At UN Biden response to Russian mobilization is making security council more 'inclusive'.
The west just can't accept that their soft power has failed. -
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A little surprising Putin announced it himself.
I thought that Shoigu was there for that. -
25 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
This can get quite interesting. Contrary to most other fascist states, Russia has made a concentrated effort to DEmobilize its citizens, not mobilize them, and it has been relatively successful in this: "the rulers" and "the people" exist in two different realms altogether, and these realms almost never meet (everyone knows there have been no real elections for quite some time, for instance, so "the people" don't even affect "the rulers" via that mechanism). Thus, a significant proportion of the population has been able to live thinking that the war in Ukraine has nothing to do with them.
A mobilization will change this dynamic immediately.
Realistically Russia would need only a small portion of their reserves, so that passivity need not change.
Especially if they target the 'right' conscripts.Well, Putin is 2 hours late for supposed speech so either there are last minute negotiations or he is just recompensing all the waiting he had to do in Teheran.
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2 hours ago, pmp10 said:
And remaining separatists are also planning referenda on the same dates.
Rumors are also flying that Putin will take an official position on the subject tonight.Looking more and more like the point of no return.
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LPR is officially declaring a referendum to join Russia.
If TASS is to be believed the voting starts in 3 days and will take 5 to complete...They also called on other regions to do the same.
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Germany is taking (temporary) control of Rosneft refineries.
Since the natural response would be an oil cut-off that sanction will come early.54 minutes ago, rjshae said:I'm speculating that type of equipment may come once the war is over, as it then becomes a "deterrent" in case of a renewal of Russian aggression.
Sure but the soviet equipment Ukraine was given won't last thru a longer war of attrition.
And there is a good chance that EU is already out of giftable T-72s. -
US is unlikely to supply long range missiles in the near future.
That would likely mean that western tanks, planes and IFVs are also off the table.I guess Ukrainian victory didn't change that particular escalation logic.
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According to Goldman Sachs EU gas prices have already peaked.
Pretty surprising as the EU discussions on market intervention are not going terribly well.-
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Not coincidentally the last working nuclear reactor was shut down today at Zaporizhzhia NPP.
I bet Russia planned to hit the energy grid during the winter anyway, but after offensive they needed a quick morale boost.
The All Things Political Topic - Ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
US couldn't even get rid of Maduro and that guy practically wrecked the economy of his country.
I'm sure they'd love a neutral regime but I doubt they have any power in the matter.