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Everything posted by Zoraptor
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That's mentioned in the Beeb article. Impossible to know what was actually happening from the footage, especially since the guy shooting was clearly not in a normal Russian uniform and may be not in a uniform at all. Could be justifiable under Perfidy (to whit faking surrender) but that's generally only applicable to those, well, faking surrender and most of the dead soldiers don't seem to have been faking. Also justifiable if they were shot incidentally which is... unlikely in this case. If the incident was finished and they were genuinely surrendering and were clearly doing so and remained doing so by taking no part and remained prone etc and then were executed it could be a war crime. There's definitely enough doubt as to the circumstances for it not to be prosecuted even if that were the case. Frankly, there are far more clear cut cases that are not going to get prosecuted than this one. Reckon that horse has well and truly bolted but as above probably not in this case.
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The only way they could have proven there was no corruption was to do the right thing and award the WCs to England and the US! I'm always reminded of the situation when Australia was part of the Oceania Confed and constantly complained about not having the FIFA rep from it, eventually (partly) leading to them leaving for Asia. Oddly enough the non Australian rep corruptly distributed money to the other countries leading to him getting returned as rep all the time instead of honestly giving 90% to Australia as the most important country. Budweiser? What's the fuss about then, they weren't going to sell beer at the stadiums anyway.
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It can also be avoided by designing the socket/ pins properly, eg a simple end user error can't have a live and unearthed 3 pin electrical plug because the earth pin is longer than the live ones, so if it is not engaged the live ones cannot be either. If there's no way to prevent a bad connection and no indication of a good connection end user error is inevitable and it's badly designed. It's just badly designed by pcisig instead of/ as well as nVidia.
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Doesn't seem to mean much except them deciding a US based studio is better off* being managed in the US rather than in Germany, which makes a reasonable amount of sense. If it's just the ownership that is being transferred internally it's similar to Embracer giving the Deus Ex IP to Eidos Montreal; just shifting stuff around internally. *Plenty to complain about in Gearbox's management of course, but then Deep Silver isn't called Derp Silver for no reason either.
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Russia really doesn't seem to be running short of cruise missiles, or at least no shorter than they were meant to be after one week. They just fired off ~100 supposedly after all. Kh-22 (the anti ship missiles) is nowhere near like for like with S3/400. It's got more than twice as much explosive as a cruise missile, literally literally 1t of HE. They've got a lot of built in margin of error for accuracy from that. The only similarity is their relevance to their original role; a Kh-22 is defunct as an anti ship missile and the short range S-300 missiles are- for Russia- defunct as SAMs so can be used at basically zero cost.
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Heh, our news has just downgraded it to "Russian made" missile rather than "Russian". Yes, the longer range versions definitely can be used for ground attack in theory. End of the day you can use any missile for ground attack in theory though, due to gravity. They've just never been used for it before, they would be a really weird choice for a precision attack and there are far better alternatives (ie drones) if you don't want as big a bang as a cruise missile. The only scenarios that would make sense are failed AD from Russia or Ukraine, not ground attack.
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The long range versions aren't being used for ground attack though- hence the 85km range Malc cited. The debris matches a 5v55R, which Russia uses for ground attack and Ukrainian uses for AD. Don't think it's anywhere near solid enough to say definitively it is debris from that model, but if it is it has to be Ukrainian as a Russian one physically could not fly that far. There's a workable scenario below where it is a Russian long range missile, that just isn't a very likely scenario. At this point near definite they (if there actually were two) were S-300 missiles. The debris is a near precise match, crater fits, everything. They would not have been fired in ground attack mode, but they could still have been Russian missile(s) fired at Ukrainian planes. Fundamentally not very likely- long way away, Ukrainian planes always fly low, missiles have a self destruct- which to be sure doesn't always work...) but possible. Far, far more likely to be Ukrainian AD missiles though.
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Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Most amazing thing about that drone was that something that old still worked. Well, kind of, since whoever used it it wasn't meant to go to Croatia. The chances are certainly miniscule of hitting anything accidentally, but they wouldn't have to be hundreds of km off course. Lviv is ~50km away and it was definitely targeted, so it would only have to be 10s ok km off target. The crater in Przewodów definitely isn't from a cruise missile though, way, way too small. For comparison, a tomahawk crater (also with ~450kg warhead) looks like this which isn't even close size wise, conservatively a tenth the explosive force. Which puts it potentially into suicide drone territory, but the wreckage certainly doesn't match that. Still could be Russian as they have several air launched missiles in the appropriate warhead range, but they also have to be fired from pretty close (10s of km; main issue is that I haven't heard anything about Russian warplanes near Lviv ever. It's always been cruise missiles hitting that deep in Ukraine). OTOH a S-300 crater looks like this (note: using a Ukrainian source) which... matches just about perfectly. Theoretically a Russian S-3/400 (especially) firing from Belarus could fly that far, but it would far more likely be Ukrainian AD if so. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Yeah, that's not damage from the 400kg of explosives a Kh or Kalibr carries. That's tens of kg at most so if it was Russian and targeted it would have to be a 'suicide drone'. Otherwise debris from an interception, or the interceptor itself. Which happens pretty regularly, even with faultless wunderwaffe (obv not actually a patriot here). -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Fair enough. Guess we won't get the BBC insisting it's a remote controlled Ukrainian boat this time. lol at the commentator authoritatively claiming Russia was trying to destroy the generators though, the power station is on the Russian side of the dam. You're still in whackadoodle land over the casualties though. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Sigh. You can't tell what damage was done previously since there's no comparison available. Which is what I was complaining about. As previous, your 'November 3' picture is at best from months before that claimed date. All the other publicly available and recent pics don't show the northern side at all. Yeah, Maxar says, but as below, saying is one thing, it being true is another. Particular lol at those saying there are no northern sluice gates so the dam itself is actually damaged, eg Ukrainian Pravda living up (down) to their soviet pedigree. 1) Fundamentally, you don't need the breakwater/ embankment if there aren't sluices, since no current --> no undercutting of the bank. So, logically there are sluices. 2) Practically, there are literally literally pictures of the dam spilling water on its northern side, eg. And yes, that's 100% the northern side, unless the Dniepr has started running uphill... For extra lols, one from, uh, RFE/ RL too, which is even more unequivocal. There are sluices on the northern side, qed. (For anyone wondering how much time I'm wasting on 'research' that was cunningly hidden away behind the arcane facade of "Nova karkhovka dam" DDG image search. Literally took 15 seconds to find a picture of the dam spilling water on its northern side... Now to see how many outlets run with the UP story without actually checking. I'm going to put $10 on the local TV news doing so at least) Please. No one is going to say that I uncritically spout whatever the US military says as gospel, because I patently don't. In no way shape or form are they 'my' numbers because they don't come from a source I'm inherently biased towards. That's not exactly true with you and UkMOD/ Zelensky though. This leads to some pretty... inconsistent opinions I'm afraid. You're saying that Russian losses have to be 5:1 if they're on attack, yet are also 8:1 (or 10:1) if they're on defence. This leads to two possibilities 1) they're attacking 'pointlessly' because it costs them less soldiers than defending, which makes it not pointless. Good guy Putin, sparing his soldiers by making them attack instead of defend <-- this one makes no sense, and is wrong 2) Or your figures are just ridiculous and aren't even internally consistent with each other. <-- It's this one. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Not my claim, Mark Milley's. You know, the top general of the US. Who, yes since bugarup's criticism is fine, might be wrong; but is an expert and certainly doesn't have a reason to exaggerate Ukrainian losses or minimise Russian ones. UkMOD and Zelensky otoh have a very good reason for claiming ludicrous figures as true, not least that people actually convince themselves they're accurate whatever they are. Ukraine has been bumping their heads against Kherson for 7 months and you've been claiming 8:1 losses in their favour there. You're not even consistent in your (bad) application of military theory. -
Pfft, we've had carpet that will generate electricity as you walk over it for decades.
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Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
1) Milley gave a separate figure for civilian casualties, and that was clearly not included in the 100k figure. You'd know that, if you'd read the article. 2) There isn't any wiggle room for interpretation, it's 100k soldiers on each side. The handy quote I provided- in case anyone, well, didn't read the article- makes that clear. 3) Now, to be fair, a lot of media managed to somehow leave out the "same thing probably on the Ukrainian side" part of the quote, like our TV news here, leaving Milley just saying that Russia has had 100k casualties. I provided a source with the full quote though, not the truncated one. The Ukrainian claims of 8 or 10:1 casualties are fantasy, as anyone with even a soupçon of critical thinking could very easily have guessed. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Meanwhile, back in reality... “You are looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded,” Milley said in remarks at the Economic Club of New York. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side.” [source] -
To see what Trump's response to being ignored by Putin would be just look at Syria 2018 where archdove Jim Mattis had to talk Trump out of attacking Russian forces there because they said they'd shoot his missiles down (on, uh, Twitter). Tends to get Occam's Broomed by anyone who wants Trump to be a Russian asset though. To paraphrase the great philosopher Viscerys I "Trump's pride has pride" and that informs all his decisions.
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Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Not everything is done for PR reasons, indeed doing stuff for pure PR is always a bad idea if it clashes with strategy. if they've decided Kherson's a waste of resources or whatever then they won't and shouldn't change their minds due to bad 'optics'. Those will change, if they win elsewhere. It's entirely possible it's been announced in the belief that that means the Ukrainians won't attack but will just let them go. An announcement certainly puts pressure on Ukraine to do so since one of their demands is a full withdrawal, presumably unopposed. It's pretty clear that the claims that the Russians were- for wont of a better term than the wargaming one- 'out of supply' were at minimum exaggerated but they'll still have a lot of equipment and soldiers to withdraw over limited crossing points. Those make lovely choke points for artillery as queues form and on the crossings themselves, have to be defended rigorously by a rearguard you may well end up losing and will definitely have to cross under fire at minimum, can be destroyed or cut off etc. Far better if the enemy just lets you cross unhindered. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Kind of funny that the one part of the initial Russian invasion that went incontrovertibly well for them was Kherson when strategically they'd have been far better off if it hadn't and those resources had gone into going northwards on the east bank. Having said that, Kherson has been imminently going to fall with all the Russian troops cut off since early April, and it hasn't 7 months later. It was then imminently going to fall in August as the Russian forces starved, and hasn't three months later. The capacity for Ukraine to actually deliver on forcing the Russians out is pretty much entirely on paper. The fatality rate of DPR officials has been high right from the outset. And it definitely isn't the Ukrainians doing a lot of the killing. IIRC just about every person in a senior leadership or militia leadership position in 2014 is dead at this point except Girkin/ Strelkov- which is the main reason I'm convinced he's controlled rather than genuine opposition. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
0) No I'm not, because it isn't. 1) The dam/ bridge blocks/ crosses the Dniepr River, which is maybe 300m wide at that point, not 15m. The lock is 15m wide. Handy wikimapia link as illustration. Make sure to turn on the satellite imagery too as... 2) ..the tweet is from Nov 3, but.. 3) ..the satellite imagery most definitely is not from Nov 3, it's bog standard Google imagery which could be anything up to literal years old. This is what it looks like on a more up to date image. Note the two extra bridges, and the infill. -
Pathfinder Wrath of the Righteous, Part 5
Zoraptor replied to Gromnir's topic in Computer and Console
That's the funny thing which made me wonder if I'd actually hit a bug: if I had gone Legend (small matter of accepting Nocticula's profane gift notwithstanding; who'd have thunk accepting a demon's gift would have consequences?) I'd still have hit that level cap after maybe an hours extra gameplay. -
Pathfinder Wrath of the Righteous, Part 5
Zoraptor replied to Gromnir's topic in Computer and Console
I now have something to significantly complain about- the level cap. Surely it cannot be that hard to work out roughly how much xp there is in the game and design the cap around that? Especially if you're going to sell dlc that just adds extra xp to the pile. I am, it seems, now the small matter of 1 million xp over the cap, and I haven't even been to Ib (?) yet. Unless it isn't displaying my xp properly? I got lvl 20 after the final fight in Enigma... (spoilers for that and the Azata mythic finale) XP wise, I've done literally zero grinding, and while I've done most of the optional fights I certainly haven't done all of them. To my mind it's just plain bad design, and there's no excuse for it. Either have a higher cap, or have lower xp rewards. That's also the one thing I actively loathed about both PoEs, for that matter. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3549443-ukrainian-forces-struck-bridge-over-dam-in-nova-kakhovka.html ? Their source is Ukrainian Operation Command South. Your source is using old satellite imagery, you can tell because of the lack of secondary crossings per below. Indeed, there's a notable lack of up to date imagery showing the dam bridge itself. The small water outlet is the lock (well, presumably. Used for getting ships past the dam; shut the gates and pump water in/ out to change the level to that up/ down stream). There are two issues with hitting that. Firstly it's very narrow, certainly in comparison to the Dniepr proper. Indeed, more up to date imagery shows the Russians had bridged it at least twice. Secondly there's no river current and no up/ down stream traffic. As a permanent solution the Russians simply filled it in to make a crossing (apparently sometime in September?), so it isn't a bridge any more. Only way to get rid of that is something far more explosive than HiMARS rockets, or to hit the lock gates to generate a, uh, current (which would be functionally identical to hitting the dam proper). -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
It isn't, as someone (Mamoulian War I think) pointed out previously the low ground is actually on the east bank, not the west. It might temporarily make the river harder to cross but it will make it far harder to defend when the water clears because any prepared positions will have been washed away. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
Sigh. Ukraine has been hitting the dam for literally months, absolutely confirmed and mentioned here multiple times whenever there has been a "Russian forces in Kherson cut off!" type post. It's just that when they hit it it's always described as the Nova Kharkovka Bridge. For some reason. To quote wikipedia, since it can hardly be accused of being pro Russian "The P47 road and a railway cross the Dnieper River on the dam." (emphasis added). This is very easily confirmed by an image search. A suitably jaded and cynical mind might suggest that all the talk of Russians blowing the dam is cover for the fact it has been constantly attacked by Ukraine and the expectation is that that has caused significant structural damage. -
Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"
Zoraptor replied to Lexx's topic in Way Off-Topic
True, but that's why it's an analogy; it simplifies the thought process by using a figurative comparison. I'd say it is a fair simplification though, as Russia also has only figuratively stolen Europe's gas. (I've said before what my opinion is of the energy suppliers making windfall profits breaking contracts- it's... not great. And in that case I was pretty sympathetic to Europe because the context there was the US was demanding more aid to Ukraine from Europe, while making 600% mark ups on gas supply. Not really any solidarity being shown in that case, and if the US wants more aid from Europe more money would definitely be available if they weren't being gouged by the US on energy pricing. But ultimately, still not those 3rd world countries fault, and their gas is still going because of something Europe could avoid doing if they really wanted to)
