Mamoulian War

This one will be really interesting to watch, how it will unfold. When you see, that Greece and Turkey are willing to cooperate, this shows very strong message what they do feel about situation in Mariupol and Russian presence there...

IIRC Russia have 3000-5000 tanks in the army, and they are sending loads of them to Ukraine as well. So the consumption of all AT weapons is indeed high...

Well, the latest estimates are 40k Russian soldiers either dead, injured, captured or deserted. I do not know how plausible it is (again IIRC info from UK and US intelligence), but even if it is half true, that is ****ing crazy number for 4 weeks of warfare...

Also in other news, the energy exit plan for Putin is slowly starting to crumble. Chinese state-run companies are starting to suspend from future business in petrochemical and gas ventures in Russia. Looks like China really did some proper math, and probably even them start to feel very uncomfortable on the thoughts of being in any way connected to Russian childkillers.

Reading this official statement of Russian Ministry of Defense, it looks like, that inflating Ukrainian victories is underestimating the real status of the war. Allow me to translate it from Russian false speak to proper English. "We ****ed up so much in the north and north east Ukraine, that we decided to retreat to the Donbass region, hoping, we will mange at least one small victory, so we can run away from Ukraine as we did from Afghanistan, while declaring it as a decisive victory."

Latest report by US should be few days old, and yes, I know that they are not independent party, but compared to Ukrainian estimate of 15000, and Russian estimate of 498, their number seems to me the most plausible. Also the latest numbers from Ukraine are now out. And Their soldier casualties are probably underestimated as well, but we will probably never know by how much and comparison of Russian casualties by Ukraine sources. (which are as you say probably inflated by some %) Also in other news, looks like Russian army NW of Kyiv will have very hard time in the next days/week. Belarusian saboteurs did a tremendous job of cutting of their possibilities of resupplying the troops. (google translate of local news) https://tvnoviny-sk.translate.goog/zahranicne/clanok/152533-bieloruske-sabotaze?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Reportedly this incident has been confirmed by Kadyrovs.

The losses of Russians even by the estimates of US intelligence are around 10000.

If someone incompetence is the main cause of 750 dead buddies of yours, it might break your nerves in a pretty unbelievable way

Not sure, how legit it is, but according to ISW, which I a reading once in a while, it might be very close to the reality. Look especially on the yellow color in the south, which are areas retaken by Ukrainian counteroffensive. I've seen also one more video allegedly from Ukrainian General Stuff, which has shown even more recaptured areas between Sumy and Chernihiv.

I would not be sure about that, as things like this are starting to emerge more and more on Russian side 🤷‍♂️ And with the ships being taken down today ad Berdyansk, Ukraine did made a pretty big blow to Russian supply lines in South. Not to mention, that Ukraine is slowly getting Russians away from their positions between Mykolaiv and Kherson... And as I mentioned earlier, no more tahnks are being made in Russia, so they are bleeding already a lot...

Another big blow to Russian "special operations" Allegedly their biggest tank manufacturer, who is also a biggest tank manufacturer in the world, has become victim of western "special economic operations" and had to stop manufacturing tanks, due to lack of tech parts required to build them. https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/news/jedinij_u_rf_virobnik_tankiv_uralvagonzavod_zupiniv_robotu_cherez_brak_komplektujuchih-6556.html?fbclid=IwAR09GfZH-VnHWXiTGEgQQaDHXhxAseotNG46Tg8NrZpZvRY14Gtlfwwdw7s&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

That is absolutely understandable. But as Wali goes, he has required army experience to be a valid asset in defense of Ukraine. And not all people went to Ukraine to fight Russia. I've seen many volunteers who went there to volunteer as Medics close to front lines, to help civilians.

The fact, that Russia was forced to move their armies from Abkhazia, Ossetia, Ural, Far East and North Siberia to Ukraine pretty much shows how widespread it is. Even without the official numbers provided...

The morale of the fiercest army in the world is indeed high 😄

As expected. What I found out, that first mention on Russian YT channels about him was on 15th March, and 16 March he was proclamed as dead by russian trolls on telegram, completely missing the point, that he arrived in Ukraine before March 4th 😄

In other news, Russian childkillers denacified in Kharkiv the house of holocaust survivor of four concentration camps during WW2...

I have no clue about Mariupol, but I have colleague from Kharkiv, who is ethnic Russian, and he never had any nice words about Putin, even before the 2014 invasion of Donbas. After 2014 a lot of ethnic Russians changed their mind about Russia - Ukrainian relationships and now mostly support westernization. Despite Putin's wishes... What is happening now, are moving them even further to the West. This sentiment is pretty much outlined by number of refugees moving from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus, despite safe corridors to there being open almost all the time...

Local population is on their side in the whole Ukraine, even the ethnic Russians. Because Putin is currently shelling the cities with the highest ratio of ethnic Russians. Kyiv is the sole exception.

There is one more claim, allegedly from intercepted communication.

A lot of people were comparing it to Crimea annexation. It went very smooth, and locals kind of welcomed them. Nowadays, even before the invasion, even the ethnic Russians living in Ukraine, mostly did not wanted to have anything to do with Russia, and now are also protesting against them in occupied cities in the south.

One of our investigative journalists have some similar articles why there might be some ineptitude. Some are about similar points, and some are completely different. But the Mafia and purges is the first time I've heard it. Knowing a little bit what were soviets, which occupied Czechoslovakia, talking about, it might be based on something real. Many soviets here were almost all the time talking about how they are happy in Czechoslovakia, because compared to being in army at home it was like "heaven".

The full Twitter thread upon which was made the above video.

Another theory on shortcomings or Russia in Ukraine. On one hand, my brain is just unable to acknowledge, how someone could be so shortsighted to do that on purpose, on the other hand, it's directly from Stalin's workbook and it is fully in context with Putin's words, that the war is going on according to plan... 🤯

Looks like the tradition of Gulags has been reestablished 🤮