Mamoulian War

You are probably correct, but there are still enough lunatics in Russia as was deceased Zhirinovski or is Girkin, who would be more unpredictable than Putin, and would be willing to nuke Europe. Especially Poland and Baltics.

OK guys, I am completely lost after yesterday, is here anyone with a military tactic education, who can give me some enlightenment on what is the endgoal of Russian military around Kherson, and why they have chosen the tactic they are using there? On Sunday, UA bombed and pretty much destroyed all buildings at Chornobaivka Airport, which also led to 5 high ranking officers being KIA. Not more than two day after, RU have put again new helicopters on the airfield, which of course prompted another (28th already) attack of UA against the airport, leading to another big explosion... Seriously, there must be some kind of master tactical plan behind this, but as much as I am trying to find any logical conclusion to this behaviour, I am unable to find one... No one on this earth can be that stupid... In other news, according to LNR militia chief, UA yesterday HIMARSed depot in Luhansk, and dealt a massive blow to the military air defense unit, which ensures the security of Luhansk. And during last 5 days, 33 high ranking officers of RU Army were officially confirmed by various Russian sources as KIA, 13 of them were Majors and higher ranks. UA longe range units step up their efficientcy a lot. No wonder, that RU was issuing nuclear threats again yesterday.

If Ukraine falls because of West stopping to care, and remove the sanctions, Russia will reinforce themselves and loads of current military officers will be shot for corruption and bad performance. They will learn from all their mistakes in UA, and from the gas and oil money, they will rebuild again. Next time, they will definitely not hesitate to attack eastern NATO members, maybe not directly, but through hybrid warfare. As an example, currently second most powerful political party in Slovakia is extremely Pro-Russian, and is sowing hatred against Ukrainian refugees. If they win the next election, Russia will have after Orban, one more white horse in NATO, and they will definitely use them during the recovery time to the maximum, to destabilize EU. And now imagine people like Salvini, Le Pen, Shroeder and Trump in the West as a leaders of their countries as well... There will not be many politicians in the West, who would be very eager to honor Article 5. Probably Poland and Nordic countries would be among the few, who would honor it in any case.

Back to interesting war data. Since Sunday evening to now, there have been HIMARSed 6 more ammunition depot in Luhansk, Donetsk, Tokmak (Zaporizhia Oblast), Nova Kakhovka (this one was bombed in middle of the night and still burning in the morning), Charivne and Chornobaivka (27th time, man would assume, that after saturday liquidation of command post, there would be nothing to destroy anymore) [all in Kherson Oblast]. Another command post responsible for Russian Air Defense in Kherson Oblast was destroyed in Tavryisk (including a lot of Air Defense systems around the post). And one vehicle warehouse was obliterated in Kadiivka/Stakhanov (Luhansk Oblast). During the weekend, in between blowing up many other warehouses, the HIMARS found it's way into command posts at Chornobaivka Airport (on Saturday - hit nr 26) and Shakhtarsk (on Sunday - Doneck Oblast). At the airport, allegedly 5 highranking officers of Russian Army has been liquidated including another General. Three already confirmed by RU army or their families, one of them allegedly based on DNA testing, from the "bag of meat", which was left behind. In Shakhtarsk, allegedly all acting deputy commanders of 106th Airborne Division were deruZified. Only one have survived, but is in very bad condition at hospital. From the various reports from battlefield, It looks like S300 is completely useless against HIMARS, and S400 is allegedly pretty inefficient against HIMARS threat as well. The Russian losses during the last week and half, since when UA Army started to use this weapon, have to be very significant, as Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs have issued Nuclear Attack threats to USA this morning.

All I need to know, is that if it is needed to spent two to five years struggling and not having a western way of life as fruitful as until now, I am willing to pay that price, if that means, that Russia will bleed dry and some of the guys at the top, will get a bonus lead treatment. My family already lived under Russian occupation, and I do not want to relive that period of time again...

Just to be 100% sure, that you are aware of it, even though you have mentioned it in your comment. It is an UBISOFT GAME with no SOLO CAMPAIGN!!! Last Ubisoft game with the same premise was dead at the end of the same month it was released

Victoria 2 on GOG. From the newsletter discount which should be still valid for a day or so. So if you still do not have the whole game, go check your email. It is on 85% discount. The cheapest price on GOG sale was 28EUR or so, I got if for 9.98 yesterday

There are at least some positives coming out of the current ****storm in Ukraine. Armenia and Turkey started after decades of diplomatic silence to talk to each other again, on the highest level. https://www.rferl.org/a/turkey-armenia-pashinian-erdogan-call/31938712.html @Darkpriest The other good news is, that Slovakia will be after finishing the interconnection to Italian gas pipelines in October of this year 100% independent from import of Russian Gas. With today's announcement, that Slovakia has already physically available enough gas to last until the end of the March of 2023 (even in the case, that all of the gas, from all around the world stops flowing), has already stabilized the price of gas deliveries to households and industry in the country, and our biggest gas provider, has already implemented price policy, which will keep the prices of gas approximately the same as now, in the foreseeable midterm future. That means, that Putin has achieved, that another country will not need Russian gas anymore in the near future, and effectively closed the business. The funny thing is, that for Slovakia this will be pretty lucrative future, as all of the pipelines from south to north and to the west in the Eastern Europe will be on 1st of October going through our country, and we will rake in ****loads of cash on transport fees. Putin is really a strategic mastermind .

I got good news for you, the rescuers found a lifeless body of 9 years old boy under the rubble of that destroyed building. Hopefully this will ease your outrage, that someone took a picture of Ukrainian soldier wounded in a civilian building in a city 20km next to the frontline Do you really expect a city that close to the front to be completely void of any defending soldiers? That's pretty ridiculous expectation TBH. Thank you for giving me an insight on how much is RFE/RL a propagandist news. Next time, I will be taking my sources from Russia Today Here is a little bit of analysis how plausible is that 1 million soldier statement. As much as I see it as an overestimation, statistically it is possible, especially, when UK, France, Czech Republic and probably other NATO countries are already training UA soldiers on their soil. There is a fact, that a UA National Front Training Centers were training people since beginning of March as well, so some hundred thousand UA citizens have already 4 month of training behind them. The level of armament is still a big question mark though.

And in other economic news, France, according to it's minister of finance, is preparing for gas cut-off. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-gas-cutoff-most-likely-scenario-french-finance-minister-2022-07-10/

Which he probably might not be able to do soon, as Russian Ministry of Defense after series of serious blunders since the famous crossing of Sievierskyi Donets river, are getting more and more pissed at the military bloggers, who are reporting about the war outside of official propaganda. They are now considering them as a "threat" to Russia Sorry but, that is the same, as saying that the coverage of 9/11 was lazy propaganda, due to the fact, that the US media has shown pictures of firefighters being rescued from under the rubble of twin towers Here you have another "lazy propaganda" including video by Reuters with "real civilians" affected at the place of the impact... https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-chasiv-yar-russia-attack-civilians-killed-invasion/31937053.html Anyway, as I've mentioned before, during the night from 9th to 10th UA army with long range artillery completely destroyed command center and warehouse at Chornobaivka, and also hit the barrack of Rosgvardia in Kherson Oblast, and another command post in Nova Kakhovka (town where is the dam, which supplies whole Crimea with water). As Rosgvardia is sometimes dubbed as Putin's private army, which is responsible for maintaining order against people who are daring to protest against the "tsar", this is pretty significant blow to the Russian plans to "convert" bad Ukrainians to "law abiding" Russians... This is what has been left from the airport after hit nr. 26 (12 senior RU officers turned to cargo 200): According to Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, only in Nova Kakhovka, the estimated number of RU soldiers destroyed with this attack is 100, with another 200 wounded, which might be little bit overestimated, nonetheless, these all attacks in Kherson Oblasts have significantly reduced the personnel and material supply of the RU army. All of these attacks against the warehouses and command posts deep in all of occupied territories was a prelude to big Ukrainian counteroffensive to liberate the South. This was yesterday, according to Minister of Defense Reznikov, announced by Volodymyr Zelenskyi. The UA citizens living in occupied territories were then urged to evacuate from the area by Vice PM Vereshuk. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-has-one-million-ready-for-fightback-to-recapture-south-3rhkrhstf https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-tells-residents-leave-occupied-south-due-counter-attack-plans-2022-07-10/ Unfortunately The Times article is behind a paywall, so if there is by a chance anyone on this board, who has subscription to The Times, who can give us some insight, of what is this article about, it would be much appreciated. Thank you.

And op-ed from Taras Kuzio - professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/07/a-russian-victory-in-ukraine-is-unthinkable/ "Russia’s defeat of Ukraine would lead to genocide on a scale far greater than in Yugoslavia three decades ago. Prior to the invasion, US intelligence warned the Kremlin had compiled ‘Kill Lists’ of Ukrainian elites. The Nazi’s and Stalinists excelled at decapitating a country’s ability to function by murdering their intellectual, cultural, political, and civil societal elites. Ukrainians summarily executed in Bucha with their hands tied behind their backs are a glaring reminder of the 1940 Katyn massacre of Polish officers by Stalin’s secret police." "An estimated 50,000 Ukrainians have died in Russian-occupied Mariupol and southern Ukraine where kidnappings, torture, and killings are commonplace. Putin justified his illegal invasion of Ukraine to end a mythical ‘genocide’ of Russian speakers, and yet, it his army that is murdering Russian speakers in southeastern Ukraine."

4-5 more warehouses and command posts have been blown up tonight on occupied territories, including one in Mariupol (all explosions reported by people living in these regions including pro-russian sources). And a bonus was 26th destruction of command post and military equipment around Chornobaivka airport It looks like that in Kherson Oblast, Russian army starts to feel ammunition shortages. They started to use S-300 for attack against city of Mykolaiv, and they received shipments of MT-LB APCs, which were made in 1950s. Other axes looks OK so far. The report from UA retaking Snihurivka released few days ago, was most probably not correct, as there are still battle ongoing around the city. In the last few days, after few weeks of using less precise rockets, RU fired few Iskanders again.

I bet, you are just one of the many, especially in the East In other news, three more warehouses were blown up this night, and if I count right, 3-5 warehouses made kaboom day before I really hope US would unlock the maximum range for HIMARS sooner or later, to allow Ukrainians to make some strategical adjustments to Kerch Bridge Oh and to everybody else, if you are into confirmed statistics, and how it correlates to the numbers provided to medias, I have found yesterday one very interesting analytic from Iceland. Looks like Russian casualties spiked to almost double the amount after the capture of Lysychansk... The visually confirmed losses have risen to 4.4 : 1 in 30 day average, up from 3.8 : 1 in all time average. The 7 day average is currently at 4.9 : 1

I would not be so sure about the status of Chinese army, some analysts are saying, that the worst mistakes of the west in the last decades, was overestimation of Russian army, and underestimation of Chinese army.

@Darkpriest Looks like everyone here missed one of the most interesting news in last few days. Looks like another Russian neighbour had enough of Putin's threats, and the verbal sparring in St. Peterburgh's economic forum has an interesting follow up. Kazakhstan president has approached EU with an offer to solve the current energy crisis. https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/kazakhstan-voices-readiness-to-help-ease-global-energy-crisis-2022-7-5-14/

you men the vids, where they are hitting some random trees?

Well, I would say, that the statement of the Russian economy doing good is a little bit more than overstatement. I have found a twitter account from some guy from German Institute for International and Security Affairs, who has some words on the situation. You remember the doom and gloom how the high cost of oil would destroy the west? Here is the prediction from Citigroup. (we are almost at the level of pre-war prices and it is going just downward.) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-05/citi-warns-oil-may-collapse-to-65-by-the-year-end-on-recession-l57ro9of The funny thing is, that Russia is already selling their Ural oil for these prices, and is trending downwards further... And guess what happens to the country who is completely dependant on their fossil fuel exports? Well, just look at Venezuela, and you can see, where the Russian economy is slowly heading... It is little bit different with Gas export, but you can clearly see, how much they are losing in every other industry and export. So if the west hold tight and does everything to solve their Gas issue, Putin's Russia will be in pretty deep troubles... IMHO even such big tariffs can not substitute the losses in everything else in the longterm. And here is the effect of the invasion on Russia's heavy industry... And here is his analysis on the Russian economy as a whole published on June 30. If you decide to read it, just do not stop reading after the first paragraph, the most interesting stuff follows .

Well, my example was definitely an example from my country, which economic situation I pretty much know a lot. And believe me it is much different from the US, and how people here are living and spending their money. Some people here are rather tell kids, that they can't play, than skipping their own season... I know it was not expressed properly in my post, but I've seen already so many cases of guys, who rather took loans on new BMW, while they were still living with their kids together with their parents, than to spent it on well-being of their family or education of their kids...

Official list of all destroyed warehouses and command posts since arrival of CEZARs and HIMARSes. Yesterday I counted three more big explosions, and today UA army started to destroy the railway infrastructure in occupied territories, on which is Russian military more dependent for supply logistic, than Germany economy on Russian gas... Also, I found today a very nice and heartwarming interview with female sergeant, who had commanded their troops in Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, which shares a little bit of insights, of how it looked like on the frontline.

It is pretty much same in Slovakia as in Germany. But we have one big issue. Because of incompetent governments, we have very low number of rental housing, therefore we have very bad habit, that every couple, their dogs and hamsters, must own their own apartment/house. And that makes us on average pretty indebted country. But unless, there will be also a burst of housing bubble in the near term, I do not see average "Joe" to run out of their money, especially that now, one competent minister has been found in our country, which solved over the course of three - four weeks all shortage of gas for our industry for the next winter. So we are set, although the prices of Gas and Electricity will go up pretty steeply. But the price of car fuel is already going slowly down.

That is pretty much possible, but the credit or debt for non-rational people starts to bite them in the ass maybe in a year or two I've already lived through periods, where I quit my coding job, to being voluntarily unemployed for half year, just to get rid of my burnout, with my income dropping to 15-20%, of what I have used to get. I managed to overcome it, without need of any loan, because I adjusted my lifestyle to the current situation... And it was in middle of my twenties... So, I am sorry, but I do not have a sympathy for people, living on a high horse, when they are not able to afford it in current circumstances

We'll see. The end of the article already states that Germany is upping their efforts to get gas from somewhere else. Also, Slovakia is full of people on social media, who are crying and spelling doom and gloom about how is everything expensive and that the state should care for Slovakia first and forget about Ukraine, but as soon as holidays started, half of the country already left to superexpensive Croatia. The car business (both new and used) is growing day by day, despite gas and diesel prices being double of what it was year and half ago... Not willing to start using trains/buses/bikes, parking lots before supermarkets are as full as before war happened... So it pretty much seems like, that it is still not enough expensive here for people to start rallying to stop supporting Ukraine. Well of course with the exception of few people, for whom would be more appropriate stay in a mental hospital, than in any public places, who still yell, that UA soldiers are killing their own civilians and blowing up their own cities, and Russia is there to save them... That being said, we are one of the biggest ****holes of EU according to our income, so I really have my doubt, if people here do not care about higher prices, that it would move an average German or Briton

Well I still think a lot of people in the west (hopefully a lot of politician in charge) can see, that doing nothing would cost the EU much more in the end, than spent few years in recession. And yes NS2 might be opened soon, and I would not object at all to open it. Of course only if some guys would finally fins enough balls to offer some lead treatment to Vladimir... The other thing is, that EU is already in heavy talks with African countries like Senegal, DPR Congo (probably even more), about improving their LNG/gas drilling infrastructure. Which if done correctly and in at least half the amount, which are we now importing from Russia, would be much more benefiting to EU. If for nothing, than at least for it being less of an security issue to us.

ehm, when did post last time anything about censorship? One would assume, if I put some emoticons at the end of my statements, that people in here would assume, that I am trying to poke a fun at something I think, I have clearly expressed myself on this board, as one of "dem woke libtards" already, but I still think people should be allowed to have fun with about anything... Even in the Ukraine thread, when people are joking, there is less "outrage" generated, than when making fun out of some stuff, which I consider over the top, even if it is done by group of people, which have similar political view than I do...