kgambit

A bit more on rail capacity. As Wals points out, it's not economic (moving crude by pipeline in the US for example still costs about half to one-third what it does to move it by rail) but cost in this case is a secondary concern. The truth is that the Chinese simply do not have the rolling stock required. Let's look at the US for starters: A PLG Consulting analysis found that by 2015 US pipeline capacity and rail capacity will be equal, both able to move 975,000 barrels per day. This year, (2013) pipeline capacity is 565,000 barrels per day and rail is 925,000 barrels per day. In 2012, they carried nearly 234,000 carloads and will likely haul around 400,000 carloads in 2013. According to the Association of American Railroads, trains transported a record 97,135 carloads of crude oil in the first quarter of 2013. That’s 166 percent more than during the first quarter of 2012. The North American tank car fleet currently consists of about 335,000 cars, with around 92,000 used to transport crude oil and other flammable liquids. A typical DOT-111 (69% of U.S. rail tank cars) carload of crude oil contains around 34,500 gallons (~630 barrels). As an aside, there is an 18 month waiting list for new rail tanker cars. https://www.aar.org/keyissues/Documents/Background-Papers/Crude-oil-by-rail.pdf http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20131026/ISSUE01/310269977/oil-boom-is-creating-years-long-backlog-for-tank-cars# The US (and Canada) has an extensive coast to coast railway system in place. By contrast, China has a single rail line that runs to the Kazahkstan border and China's rail network has direct connections with Russian railways at two points: Manzhouli and Suifenhe. In 2004 China’s railroad inventory included 15,456 locomotives owned by the national railroad system. National railroad freight cars numbered 520,101. Assuming a similar ratio of tanker cars to total rolling stock as the US, that would give the Chinese ~140,000 tanker rail cars with a capacity of ~1.5 million barrels a day. Even if the Chinese rail freight car stock was comprised of 100% tankers, they still wouldn't be able to haul the required 6 million barrels a day. Forget tanker trucks since they have a capacity of around 200 barrels each.

Sunrise on Old Beech Mountain @Ros - That bartender is HOT!

Major pain. lol None of the editing functions worked for me. No bold text, no color text, no italics, quotes, images etc. Nada. They weren't working in BBCode and they weren't working in non-BBCode mode. Can one of the mods get the site admin to take a look at this?

It is true that China could survive a maritime oil embargo if and only if Russia and Kazahkstan alter their current export distribution. Russia could supply the import shortfall by itself but would it do so with 78% of Russian oil exports marked for EU countries? Maybe. If China paid thru the nose as it would likely do. Kazakhstan only exports a total of 2 million barrels a day so that won't completely make up the shortfall. The pipeline to China is expected to double capacity to 400,000 bbl/d by 2014. Iran, which only supplies 555,000 bbl/day to China and could increase that to a max of 2 million a day but is land transport an option? Currently, Kazakshtan and Russia supply around a half a million bbl a day to China. Further, Russia's and Kazakhstan's oil exports have been static since 2009 at a combined quantity of about 9 million barrels per day. This value is assumed to remain constant for the foreseeable future. China's imports are growing exponentially and even conservative projections will have Chinese demand outstripping the capacity for Russian/Kazahkstan resupply by as early as 2020 if not before. You might want to read this article: Stranglehold: The Context, Conduct and Consequences of an American Naval Blockade of China http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2012.743885#.UqM4sWd3uUk The rest of Chinese oil imports REQUIRE tanker transport - trains and trucks are not an option for transport from most of the countries that currently export oil to China. Even the China-Myanamar gas and oil pipeline was designed to provide a southern offload terminal that bypassed the choke point at the Straights of Malacca. It still requires tanker transport to the Bay of Bengal terminal. China does have the short term capacity to withstand a 30 day oil embargo thanks to their petroleum reserve, which is being planned for expansion to a 60 day reserve by 2030 even with increased demand. Quick digression on Chinese oil imports: Oil imports China's crude oil imports have grown robustly in the past several years, and reached a record-high 6 million bbl/d by May 2012. China imported nearly 5.1 million bbl/d of crude oil on average in 2011, rising 6 percent from 4.8 million bbl/d in 2010. In the first half of 2012, imports rose even higher to 5.6 million bbl/d. Crude imports now outweigh domestic supply, consisting of over half of total oil consumption in 2011. EIA expects China to import about 75 percent of its crude oil by 2035 as demand is expected to grow faster than domestic crude supply. The Middle East remains the largest source of China's crude oil imports, although African countries, particularly Angola, began contributing more to China's imports in recent years. As part of China's energy supply security policy, the country's NOCs are attempting to diversify supply sources in various regions through overseas investments and long-term contracts. In 2011, the Middle East supplied 2.6 million bbl/d (51 percent). Other regions that export to China include Africa with 1.2 million bbl/d (24 percent), Asia-Pacific region with 173,000 bbl/d (3 percent), and 1.1 million bbl/d (22 percent) from other countries. Saudi Arabia and Angola ranked as China's two largest sources of oil imports, together accounting for almost one-third of China's total crude oil imports. Sudan and South Sudan became significant oil exporters to China until production was shut in at the start of 2012, following political conflicts between the two African nations over their oil resources. Exports from Sudan and South Sudan to China dropped from 260,000 bbl/d in 2011 to zero by April 2012. http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH

Anyone else having trouble with the obsidian forums after updating to IE 11? I had to roll back to IE10 because the quote, image, media functions were no longer working and I had to resort to using the BBCode to quote replies etc. At least one other member told me he had the same problem.

True. 1) Chinese oil consumption outstripped its production by over 6.3 million barrels per day, and existing pipelines from Russia and Kazahkstan are capable of supplying less than 0.5 million barrels a day. Proposed pipelines from Pakistan and India have failed to get off the drawing board. Expansion of existing Siberian-China pipelines will expand the pipeline capacity but nowhere near to covering the total shortfall. http://www.theodora.com/pipelines/east_asia_oil_gas_products_pipelines_map.html 2) The farm land lost during the 3 Gorges damn project had provided 40% of China's grain and 70% of rice crops. Continued resettlement of farmers for larger development projects has put further pressure on Chinese domestic food production. http://qz.com/140994/china-imports-4-of-the-worlds-grain-and-thats-still-not-enough/

Just a traitor bribed by III Reich, member of Fascist counter-revolutionary conspiracy. Anyway these peoples are theorists, they don't participate in real war and because this they can't be described as best generals. You deserve to be cemented into his grave and used as a vase for floral tributes. Preferably head first so we have a spot to stick flowers ........

That's how it was for me growing up in Ohio, EXCEPT that elementary ran thru 6 and Jr High was 7-8.

My list: 1) The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 2) Project Eternity 3) Dragon Age: Inquisition 4) Wasteland 2 5) Fallout 4 (?) 6) Mass Effect 4 (?)

I made stir-fry sweet and sour shrimp with green pepper, onion, water chestnuts, pineapple and snow peas over wild rice. No soy sauce (too much sodium) and the sweet and sour sauce had only 58 mg sodium in it.

I missed the game. You don't win a lot of games with 188 yards of total offense. Saints got pwned.

Manu http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HiibuebxLI

Went to a Christmas tree farm and picked up our tree yesterday. Decorated it today at halftime of Ohio State / Michigan.

Watched the last season of Breaking Bad (picked it up on DVD earlier this week). Awesome ending.

Nice Updates Alan. That DLC is pretty nice.

Don't let the facts get in the way of Oby's spin ....

Finished Warehouse 13 season 4 - pity that it only runs one more season (and a shortened 6 episode season at that). Started American Horror Story - Asylum - Season 2 is much creepier than season 1!

The Family with Michelle Pfeiffer and Robert de Niro - mob family relocates to Normandy France under the witness protection program. The locals are worse for the experience. Hilarious.

The Georgian Fleet? WTF is oby smoking? The Georgian Fleet consisted of 19 ships headlined by the Dioskuria which was a glorified La Combattante II, along with the Tblisi project 206MR missile boat. Despite having the capability of launching anti-ship missiles, prior to the 2008 conflict it had no such missiles. Both ships now lie at the bottom of Poti Harbor. A single Russian warship against a US fleet? ROTFLMAO Now THAT is funny. Did this thread somehow morph info funny internet stuff because damn, oby is outdoing himself.

Triple Falls Dupont state forest

Quantum memory 'world record' smashed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24934786

I don't quite understand why people target iOs for anything but puzzle games. Am I just so out of touch? A windows release would have me interested. Ossian did well with Mysteries of Westgate. I know Ossian is talking about possibly doing an Android version after the iOS release, but I wouldn't hold my breath for a PC version.