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http://anydice.com/

 

this site let you calculate the odds of getting any possible result when rolling any amount of dice you want and i found it's a great learning tool to learn how many dices are enough to beat the odds

 

for example if you need to pass a 6 check with just a single 1d6 your odd of doing so are just 16% but just adding another dice with a blessing bump your chance to 72% but maybe that check is really really important (like you found the henchman as the first card) so how much would a 3rd 6 faced dice add? well adding a 3rd dice bump your chance to an amazing 95% making the check almost impossible to fail

Edited by teasel
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for example if you need to pass a 6 check with just a single 1d6 your odd of doing so are just 16% but just adding another dice with a blessing bump your chance to 72% but maybe that check is really really important (like you found the henchman as the first card) so how much would a 3rd 6 faced dice add? well adding a 3rd dice bump your chance to an amazing 95% making the check almost impossible to fail

Unfortunately, my experience on exactly such checks (3d6 for 6) is I fail far too often to my liking, so I'm not calm until I have enough dice to not be able to fail. And don't get me started on the "roll d12, fail only on a 1" rolls. I'm not even kidding, this game pushed me in to the habit of looking away from the screen just not to jinx a roll - and that's on rolls I wouldn't think of twice in the normal card game.

 

That being said, this is indeed a great resource for novice players.

You can use the 'Mark Solved' button beneath a post that answers your topic or confirms it's not a bug.

The time that devs don't have to spend on the forum is a time they can spend on fixing the game.

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Yeah i think the dice rolling for the game needs a tweak. Too many 1s on all so important rolls where it should be next imposible to fail.

 

And I had this fun time with the Boss that re-rolls your attack on a 1 or 2 roll. 6 straight,blessings all out. Fun times, fun times..

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For a shortcut on your average roll, add the number of "Sides" total (d4 + d6 +d8 = 18 sides), plus the number of dice, and divide that total in half.  (In the same example, that's 10 and a half).  That's the average roll, and you should get that slightly more than 50% of the time.

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"I need a lie-down" is the new "I'll be in my bunk..."

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For a shortcut on your average roll, add the number of "Sides" total (d4 + d6 +d8 = 18 sides), plus the number of dice, and divide that total in half.  (In the same example, that's 10 and a half).  That's the average roll, and you should get that slightly more than 50% of the time.

 

That's generally how I go, but I do get a lot fails that way.  

 

In the gameplay video from Obsidian the Dev (I forget his name, sorry) said he just counts 2 for each die.  This assumes an almost worst case scenario.  If you can can beat or be close to the check with that you'll have a better chance without having to calculate the exact percentage.  I've been using that guesstimate for the critical rolls and I haven't had a problem.  That said, I may look at using  anydice.com so I feel more confident.

Add info you find/want to the Pathfinder Adventures wiki

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For a shortcut on your average roll, add the number of "Sides" total (d4 + d6 +d8 = 18 sides), plus the number of dice, and divide that total in half.  (In the same example, that's 10 and a half).  That's the average roll, and you should get that slightly more than 50% of the time.

I do this. Before.

 

Now i just get as much dice as I can close to the Difficulty and always expect 1's. One thing i observe is whenever I get to close A Scenario, i overload the screen with dice (close to 20 various diceside) and hoping to get 100 damage ( highest is 82 ), much frequently i get cluster 1s..I still succeed, yep, but the frequency and number of 1s seems off.

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So far I've been dividing each die by half its number of faces and just adding that up to see if it meets the check. I guess (without a masters in advance mathematics), that should give an average of 50% for meeting the check, but I've just been finding that it works for me, more like 70-80% of the time. If I can then add even just a d4 it verges on a sure thing.

 

I think the strategies above and if I do say so myself, my own strategy, plus your own experience over time is the key to rolling with the odds. If you really want something, then not only meet your normal "check method" but also add a few die to escalate that chance dramatically is the lesson here.

Edited by StarlordBFG
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For a shortcut on your average roll, add the number of "Sides" total (d4 + d6 +d8 = 18 sides), plus the number of dice, and divide that total in half.  (In the same example, that's 10 and a half).  That's the average roll, and you should get that slightly more than 50% of the time.

 

That's generally how I go, but I do get a lot fails that way.  

 

In the gameplay video from Obsidian the Dev (I forget his name, sorry) said he just counts 2 for each die.  This assumes an almost worst case scenario.  If you can can beat or be close to the check with that you'll have a better chance without having to calculate the exact percentage.  I've been using that guesstimate for the critical rolls and I haven't had a problem.  That said, I may look at using  anydice.com so I feel more confident.

 

 

Yes, you will get a lot of fails that way. Almost 50%. :) Because that's the odds. And you need A LOT.. I mean A LOT of rolls for the failure/success rates to even become statistically significant. So .. expect randomness, even random strings of failures in a row.

Edited by hfm
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Oh, yeah, I wasn't saying "you should expect to succeed at that point", I'm just saying you can start calculating your odds from there.  I don't like rolls that are a single die because there's no bell curve leading to middle rolls.  I also figure that getting a 2 on every die is reasonable, and I'll stretch it to less-than-3-on-average fairly comfortably.

"I need a lie-down" is the new "I'll be in my bunk..."

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If you want to know if your dice are rolled unevenly, track every roll for every different dice side (4 sided, 6 sided, etc). I did that for a while and it came out a tad below average, but well within expected probabilities.

 

If you don't want to calc odds, or just want to come close to always suceeding, make your average roll 5 higher than your check number. For example you need a 13 to pass a check - if you make your average roll 13+5 or 18, any you will generally pass your checks. This is overkill in some situations, but easy to do a quick calc to see what your average roll needs be to have a great chance to succeed.

 

If you want to know your odds of success, test it out with the dice rolling app listed in the first post on this topic. Or, if you are lazy, like me, here is the link again:

 

Http://anydice.com/

Edited by Sweet_Sadie
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If you want to know if your dice are rolled unevenly, track every roll for every different dice side (4 sided, 6 sided, etc). I did that for a while and it came out a tad below average, but well within expected probabilities.

 

If you don't want to calc odds, or just want to come close to always suceeding, make your average roll 5 higher than your check number. For example you need a 13 to pass a check - if you make your average roll 13+5 or 18, any you will generally pass your checks. This is overkill in some situations, but easy to do a quick calc to see what your average roll needs be to have a great chance to succeed.

 

If you want to know your odds of success, test it out with the dice rolling app listed in the first post on this topic. Or, if you are lazy, like me, here is the link again:

 

Http://anydice.com/

 

I prefer check +1/3 (rounded up), that way it accounts a bit better for the bigger checks.

 

averaging is easy

d4s #dice*2.5

d6s #dice*3.5

d8s #dice*4.5

d10s #dice*5.5

d12s #dice*6.6

 

or ((sides/2)+.5)*#dice for each dice type.

Edited by Kgk4569
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If you want to know if your dice are rolled unevenly, track every roll for every different dice side (4 sided, 6 sided, etc). I did that for a while and it came out a tad below average, but well within expected probabilities.

If you don't want to calc odds, or just want to come close to always suceeding, make your average roll 5 higher than your check number. For example you need a 13 to pass a check - if you make your average roll 13+5 or 18, any you will generally pass your checks. This is overkill in some situations, but easy to do a quick calc to see what your average roll needs be to have a great chance to succeed.

If you want to know your odds of success, test it out with the dice rolling app listed in the first post on this topic. Or, if you are lazy, like me, here is the link again:Http://anydice.com/

 

 

I prefer check +1/3 (rounded up), that way it accounts a bit better for the bigger checks.

 

averaging is easy

d4s #dice*2.5

d6s #dice*3.5

d8s #dice*4.5

d10s #dice*5.5

d12s #dice*6.6

 G

or ((sides/2)+.5)*#dice for each dice type.

First, your easy averages will help non math nerds. Well done.

 

Just a quick mental check of your +1/3 method vs my +5 method, as the checks increase in size your method is better, but for smaller checks mine is better. I have not taken the time to prove this, so I could be wrong. But my gut is pretty good when it comes to odds calcs :)

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or ((sides/2)+.5)*#dice for each dice type.

 

This seems like way more work than (total sides + number of dice)/2.  Though you'll find them mathematically equivalent.

"I need a lie-down" is the new "I'll be in my bunk..."

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or ((sides/2)+.5)*#dice for each dice type.

 

This seems like way more work than (total sides + number of dice)/2.  Though you'll find them mathematically equivalent.

 

 

Nope. Rolling 10d12

(total sides * number of dice)/2=(12*10)/2=60

((sides/2)+.5)*#dice=((12/2)+.5)*10=65

 

(sides/2)+.5) is a quick way to estimate the average, and is the equivalent of the sum of all sides divided by the number of sides. The ".5" comes from the fact that you can never roll a 0.

 

Where it gets fun is the scythe. :D

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or ((sides/2)+.5)*#dice for each dice type.

 

This seems like way more work than (total sides + number of dice)/2.  Though you'll find them mathematically equivalent.

 

 

Nope. Rolling 10d12

(total sides * number of dice)/2=(12*10)/2=60

((sides/2)+.5)*#dice=((12/2)+.5)*10=65

You're totally misreading my formula.

Total number of sides adding up the number of sides on each die together (so, 10d12 is 120, while 1d4+1d6+1d8+1d10+1d12=40).  + is plus, not times.  Total number of dice is just that (so for 10d12, it'd be 10, and for 1d4+1d6+1d8+1d10+1d12, it'd be 5).

 

So, for the first example, 120+10=130, 130/2=65<------same answer, easier to do while looking at dice in your hand

Second example, 40+5=45, 45/2=22.5 <------ Since many dice pools have multiple types of dice, you're much more likely to do something like this.

"I need a lie-down" is the new "I'll be in my bunk..."

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I took what Nathan said and work with that.

I always expect the dice to roll a 3. Slightly more than average for a d4. Slightly less than average for a d6, and way more less for everything else.

Just multiply 3 by the number of dice. And add your bonus.

So in the examples above.

Pretty positive I'll beat a 30 with 10d12.

And I'm feeling great about beating a 15 with the second example.

If I roll average, Totally beaten. If slightly below, I'll still pass.

Super simple.

3x(number of dice). (except 2d4 but that's a worthless roll anyway.)

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

If you want to know if your dice are rolled unevenly, track every roll for every different dice side (4 sided, 6 sided, etc). I did that for a while and it came out a tad below average, but well within expected probabilities.

 

If you don't want to calc odds, or just want to come close to always suceeding, make your average roll 5 higher than your check number. For example you need a 13 to pass a check - if you make your average roll 13+5 or 18, any you will generally pass your checks. This is overkill in some situations, but easy to do a quick calc to see what your average roll needs be to have a great chance to succeed.

 

If you want to know your odds of success, test it out with the dice rolling app listed in the first post on this topic. Or, if you are lazy, like me, here is the link again:

 

Http://anydice.com/

 

I prefer check +1/3 (rounded up), that way it accounts a bit better for the bigger checks.

 

averaging is easy

d4s #dice*2.5

d6s #dice*3.5

d8s #dice*4.5

d10s #dice*5.5

d12s #dice*6.6

 

or ((sides/2)+.5)*#dice for each dice type.

 

Here is the breakdown of the Check +5 Method vs the Check * 1 1/3 Method

 

  1 1/3 +5 Check Method Method 4 6 9 5 7 10 6 8 11 7 10 12 8 11 13 9 12 14 10 14 15 11 15 16 12 16 17 13 18 18 14 19 19 15 20 20 16 22 21 17 23 22 18 24 23 19 26 24 20 27 25 21 28 26 22 30 27 23 31 28 24 32 29

 

Checks 13-15 are identical. Above 15 the *1 1/3 is safer, below 13 the +5 Method is safer.

 

Carp! I hate BB Codes. Trust me or just do it in a spreadsheet for yourself

Edited by Sweet_Sadie
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