US Election 2016, part II

[Namutree]

 

I thought Beck brought up a good point that conservatives are scaring off these tech companies by behavior that is traditionally more reserved for liberals.  It wasn't liberal mouthpieces telling Apple to crack their phone for the FBI.  You look online and a bunch of the so-called "conservative" sites are calling for police to shoot BLM people, the government to deport all Muslims, and put Target out of business for bathroom policies.  It's a hostile environment and doesn't represent smaller government or freedom.  

 

Look at a site like this:

 

https://www.facebook.com/FreedomDailyNews/

 

They have a million likes.  The stories are usually misleading and the comments are filled with hate.  I'm know there are liberal equivalents, but they don't tend to breed nearly as much vitriol.

I'm reminded of a joke about how most Silicon Valley folks(programmers and stuff, not necessarily executives) are all libertarians until their jobs are in danger of being outsourced or taken. The argument is that whatever principles whatever group has are going to be jettisoned in times of crisis by a good number of members of whatever group in favor of what they perceive to be self-interest. I'm not sure if it's true in every case, but I've noticed a lot of people from varying ideologies willing to accept, or even support, things that are antithetical to their ideology and rhetoric because there's some pressing issue that overrides their core principles.

 

Self-interest is in human nature. Ideology and our environment can guide us to a certain extent, but it can never change us to the very core of our being. The people who are willing to stand by their principles against their own interest are an extreme minority and likely have a genetic defect of some kind.

[Meshugger]

 

I thought Beck brought up a good point that conservatives are scaring off these tech companies by behavior that is traditionally more reserved for liberals.  It wasn't liberal mouthpieces telling Apple to crack their phone for the FBI.  You look online and a bunch of the so-called "conservative" sites are calling for police to shoot BLM people, the government to deport all Muslims, and put Target out of business for bathroom policies.  It's a hostile environment and doesn't represent smaller government or freedom.  

 

Look at a site like this:

 

https://www.facebook.com/FreedomDailyNews/

 

They have a million likes.  The stories are usually misleading and the comments are filled with hate.  I'm know there are liberal equivalents, but they don't tend to breed nearly as much vitriol.

I'm reminded of a joke about how most Silicon Valley folks(programmers and stuff, not necessarily executives) are all libertarians until their jobs are in danger of being outsourced or taken. The argument is that whatever principles whatever group has are going to be jettisoned in times of crisis by a good number of members of whatever group in favor of what they perceive to be self-interest. I'm not sure if it's true in every case, but I've noticed a lot of people from varying ideologies willing to accept, or even support, things that are antithetical to their ideology and rhetoric because there's some pressing issue that overrides their core principles.

 

 

What's that proverb again? "People only support policies and ideas that they can afford, as they are not affected by the cost". It goes to both ways of the political spectrum of course, when push comes to shove, it's the ingroup that matters; whatever that ingroup constitutes as (family, friends, class, tribe, etc).

 

Few people live truly by virteous principles that are higher than themselves and even fewer overcome themselves and transcend to greatness.

Edited May 21, 2016 by Meshugger

[Barothmuk]

Personally I wish more people would give the Libertarian Party a look. To quote Tyrion Lannister "Give freedom a chance. See if it doesn't taste every bit as sweet as what came before"

"Freedom"

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

 

Personally I wish more people would give the Libertarian Party a look. To quote Tyrion Lannister "Give freedom a chance. See if it doesn't taste every bit as sweet as what came before"

"Freedom"

You forgot the "tm".

[Zoraptor]

Which politician could possibly be against freedom?

 

And that's why you have right wing types who think freedom is the government (who they purportedly hate) reading everything from everyone and left wing types who think freedom is corporations (who they purportedly hate) using social engineering, self interest and personal bias to decide what can and can not be debated.

 

There's probably no less worthwhile term than 'freedom' in the entire political lexicon, and the political lexicon is replete with utterly devalued terms.

[Enoch]

 

 

Nothing wrong with that. I think Clinton will be lucky to have such a high result in the actual election, but ok.

 

 

Considering how close all the recent elections have been, that would not be a very safe bet to make.

 

The only way you are going to see either candidate get below 40% is if there is a legitimate 3rd party candidate, like when Ross Perot pulled 18% of the vote.

 

The two major parties clearly have a "floor" of around 45% of the popular vote, absent serious 3rd party contenders, but the electoral college is another matter.  The Democrats have a pretty strong built-in advantage at this point.  The 19 states plus DC that have supported the Dem candidate in every single one of the last 8 Presidential elections are 20-some EVs short of the total needed to win outright.  If they can add either Florida or any two of the other reasonably large swing states, they win.  By comparison, the GOP's "safe" states don't get them nearly as close to the White House-- they've got to take nearly all of the states that are considered "in play" just to eke out a narrow win.  

[Leferd]

 

 

 

Nothing wrong with that. I think Clinton will be lucky to have such a high result in the actual election, but ok.

 

 

Considering how close all the recent elections have been, that would not be a very safe bet to make.

 

The only way you are going to see either candidate get below 40% is if there is a legitimate 3rd party candidate, like when Ross Perot pulled 18% of the vote.

 

The two major parties clearly have a "floor" of around 45% of the popular vote, absent serious 3rd party contenders, but the electoral college is another matter.  The Democrats have a pretty strong built-in advantage at this point.  The 19 states plus DC that have supported the Dem candidate in every single one of the last 8 Presidential elections are 20-some EVs short of the total needed to win outright.  If they can add either Florida or any two of the other reasonably large swing states, they win.  By comparison, the GOP's "safe" states don't get them nearly as close to the White House-- they've got to take nearly all of the states that are considered "in play" just to eke out a narrow win.  

 

 

The latest EC forecast from Cook:

 

 

DEM: 304

GOP: 190

Toss Up: 44

 

http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

[Bartimaeus]

 

Inching closer and closer towards voting for Trump (vs. Hillary)...

 

(Word of warning: guy's kind of obnoxious, has a few poor points, but manages to convey the increasing frustration I and, and presumably other Bernie supporters, have been feeling lately.)

Edited May 22, 2016 by Bartimaeus

[Leferd]

Welp. ABC News/Washington Post's latest poll is out.

 

 

Cherrypicking a few passages:

 

 

Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters say they have negative impressions of both major candidates. Overall, Clinton’s net negative rating among registered voters is minus-16, while Trump’s is minus-17, though Trump’s numbers have improved since March. Among all adults, Trump’s net negatives are significantly higher than those of Clinton.

 

 

At this point, the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat among registered voters, with Trump favored by 46 percent and Clinton favored by 44 percent. That represents an 11-point shift toward the presumptive Republican nominee since March. Among all adults, Clinton holds a six-point lead (48 percent to 42 percent), down from 18 points in March.

 

 

Among all adults, 58 percent rate Trump as not qualified to be president. In contrast, 63 percent say Clinton is qualified. But among those who say Trump is not qualified, 3 in 4 say they support Clinton for president. An additional 14 percent are backing Trump, and the remainder say they would pick neither candidate or might stay home in November.

 

 

Trump is winning 57 percent of white voters, while Clinton gets just 33 percent. For purposes of comparison, Obama in 2012 lost the white vote, 39 percent to 59 percent. Among nonwhites, Clinton is at 69 percent while Trump is at 21 percent. Four years ago, Romney got 19 percent of the nonwhite vote.

 

Trump is getting 85 percent of Republicans, and losing 8 percent to Clinton. She wins 86 percent of Democrats but loses 11 percent to Trump. Clinton, of course, is in a contest with Sanders that continues to split Democrats. Trump’s narrow overall lead among registered voters comes mainly from his current strength among independents, who prefer him to Clinton by 13 points.

 

Trump has consistently scored best with voters lacking college degrees, and that is again the case in the Post-ABC poll. He wins voters without a college degree by double digits; Clinton wins those with college degrees by a similar margin. Among whites, Trump does even better. He breaks even among white voters with college degrees and trounces her among those without degrees.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html

 

FivethirtyEight grades ABC News/Washington Post polls as an A-.

 

[Namutree]

Welp. ABC News/Washington Post's latest poll is out.

 

 

Cherrypicking a few passages:

 

 

Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters say they have negative impressions of both major candidates. Overall, Clinton’s net negative rating among registered voters is minus-16, while Trump’s is minus-17, though Trump’s numbers have improved since March. Among all adults, Trump’s net negatives are significantly higher than those of Clinton.

 

 

At this point, the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat among registered voters, with Trump favored by 46 percent and Clinton favored by 44 percent. That represents an 11-point shift toward the presumptive Republican nominee since March. Among all adults, Clinton holds a six-point lead (48 percent to 42 percent), down from 18 points in March.

 

 

Among all adults, 58 percent rate Trump as not qualified to be president. In contrast, 63 percent say Clinton is qualified. But among those who say Trump is not qualified, 3 in 4 say they support Clinton for president. An additional 14 percent are backing Trump, and the remainder say they would pick neither candidate or might stay home in November.

 

 

Trump is winning 57 percent of white voters, while Clinton gets just 33 percent. For purposes of comparison, Obama in 2012 lost the white vote, 39 percent to 59 percent. Among nonwhites, Clinton is at 69 percent while Trump is at 21 percent. Four years ago, Romney got 19 percent of the nonwhite vote.

 

Trump is getting 85 percent of Republicans, and losing 8 percent to Clinton. She wins 86 percent of Democrats but loses 11 percent to Trump. Clinton, of course, is in a contest with Sanders that continues to split Democrats. Trump’s narrow overall lead among registered voters comes mainly from his current strength among independents, who prefer him to Clinton by 13 points.

 

Trump has consistently scored best with voters lacking college degrees, and that is again the case in the Post-ABC poll. He wins voters without a college degree by double digits; Clinton wins those with college degrees by a similar margin. Among whites, Trump does even better. He breaks even among white voters with college degrees and trounces her among those without degrees.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html

 

FivethirtyEight grades ABC News/Washington Post polls as an A-.

As I suspected. As things go on Clinton will get more and more unpopular, and Trump will get less and less hated.

[BruceVC]

Welp. ABC News/Washington Post's latest poll is out.

 

 

Cherrypicking a few passages:

 

 

Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters say they have negative impressions of both major candidates. Overall, Clinton’s net negative rating among registered voters is minus-16, while Trump’s is minus-17, though Trump’s numbers have improved since March. Among all adults, Trump’s net negatives are significantly higher than those of Clinton.

 

 

At this point, the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat among registered voters, with Trump favored by 46 percent and Clinton favored by 44 percent. That represents an 11-point shift toward the presumptive Republican nominee since March. Among all adults, Clinton holds a six-point lead (48 percent to 42 percent), down from 18 points in March.

 

 

Among all adults, 58 percent rate Trump as not qualified to be president. In contrast, 63 percent say Clinton is qualified. But among those who say Trump is not qualified, 3 in 4 say they support Clinton for president. An additional 14 percent are backing Trump, and the remainder say they would pick neither candidate or might stay home in November.

 

 

Trump is winning 57 percent of white voters, while Clinton gets just 33 percent. For purposes of comparison, Obama in 2012 lost the white vote, 39 percent to 59 percent. Among nonwhites, Clinton is at 69 percent while Trump is at 21 percent. Four years ago, Romney got 19 percent of the nonwhite vote.

 

Trump is getting 85 percent of Republicans, and losing 8 percent to Clinton. She wins 86 percent of Democrats but loses 11 percent to Trump. Clinton, of course, is in a contest with Sanders that continues to split Democrats. Trump’s narrow overall lead among registered voters comes mainly from his current strength among independents, who prefer him to Clinton by 13 points.

 

Trump has consistently scored best with voters lacking college degrees, and that is again the case in the Post-ABC poll. He wins voters without a college degree by double digits; Clinton wins those with college degrees by a similar margin. Among whites, Trump does even better. He breaks even among white voters with college degrees and trounces her among those without degrees.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html

 

FivethirtyEight grades ABC News/Washington Post polls as an A-.

Geez, those statistics are interesting

 

This really seems like its going to be  a VERY  close presidential race 

[Leferd]

You need to figure that Trump has secured the GOP nomination and ostensibly now has the party backing. Meanwhile Bernie is still playing the part of the gadfly to Hillary's left.

 

After Sanders pulls out, the Democrat vote will normalize and shift back towards Clinton. The underlying salient metrics still skew towards a Clinton victory in November (Including the all-important Electoral College math).

Edited May 22, 2016 by Leferd

[BruceVC]

You need to figure that Trump has now secured the GOP nomination and ostensibly now has the party backing. Meanwhile Bernie is still playing the part of the gadfly to Hillary's left.

 

After Sanders pulls out, the Democrat vote will normalize and shift back towards Clinton. The underlying salient metrics still skew towards a Clinton victory in November.

Yes I agree, for me  Sanders is a creating a distraction to the ultimate Clinton victory

 

I have been saying for a while now but  I wish Sanders would just end his campaign, it has been a good race and he has done very well but I want to see the Democrats starting to meaningfully unite behind Hilary to address the Trump political behemoth 

[Leferd]

Sanders staying in is good for democracy. He's still bringing issues and important dialogue to kitchen tables, coffee breaks, and internet message boards across America. It's an inconvenience to the Clinton campaign, but that's part of the ballgame. Hell, Clinton did the same to Obama in '08 and didn't drop out until the Primaries were done --even though the math said she was practically out of the race.

[BruceVC]

Sanders staying in is good for democracy. He's still bringing issues and important dialogue to kitchen tables, coffee breaks, and internet message boards across America. It's an inconvenience to the Clinton campaign, but that's part of the ballgame. Hell, Clinton did the same to Obama in '08 and didn't drop out until the Primaries were done --even though the math said she was practically out of the race.

Okay, you raise some good points about this adding to the overall  strength of Democracy

 

I need to try to see that aspect of this race

[Sweet_Sadie]

All I can say is that if Trump wins the Presidency, I will move back to Europe years earlier than I had planned too. The man is a loony!

[Namutree]

All I can say is that if Trump wins the Presidency, I will move back to Europe years earlier than I had planned too. The man is a loony!

You won't be missed.

[Sweet_Sadie]

 

All I can say is that if Trump wins the Presidency, I will move back to Europe years earlier than I had planned too. The man is a loony!

You won't be missed.

 

Silly Namutree.You won't be rid of me, Europe has had the internet since at least 2010 LOL.

[BruceVC]

 

 

All I can say is that if Trump wins the Presidency, I will move back to Europe years earlier than I had planned too. The man is a loony!

You won't be missed.

 

Silly Namutree.You won't be rid of me, Europe has had the internet since at least 2010 LOL.

 

 

Sadie is right Namutree ..,.the Internet is a global phenomena   

[Namutree]

 

 

All I can say is that if Trump wins the Presidency, I will move back to Europe years earlier than I had planned too. The man is a loony!

You won't be missed.

 

Silly Namutree.You won't be rid of me, Europe has had the internet since at least 2010 LOL.

 

I don't mind you being here on the forum. Just please do as you said you would and leave the country after Trump wins.

[BruceVC]

 

 

 

All I can say is that if Trump wins the Presidency, I will move back to Europe years earlier than I had planned too. The man is a loony!

You won't be missed.

 

Silly Namutree.You won't be rid of me, Europe has had the internet since at least 2010 LOL.

 

I don't mind you being here on the forum. Just please do as you said you would and leave the country after Trump wins.

 

Why would you want people to leave the USA if Trump wins? Its like you daring people to "do what they say " ?

 

I would imagine its better to reconcile the various political differences these elections have created?

[Sweet_Sadie]

 

 

 

 

All I can say is that if Trump wins the Presidency, I will move back to Europe years earlier than I had planned too. The man is a loony!

You won't be missed.

 

Silly Namutree.You won't be rid of me, Europe has had the internet since at least 2010 LOL.

 

I don't mind you being here on the forum. Just please do as you said you would and leave the country after Trump wins.

 

Why would you want people to leave the USA if Trump wins? Its like you daring people to "do what they say " ?

 

I would imagine its better to reconcile the various political differences these elections have created?

 

A lot of people fear that if Trump is elected that the USA will collapse, and that could get real ugly real fast. Unfortunately I am not in control of where I live for the next two years. I doubt my Probation Officer would let me leave the country when she won;t even let me leave the county I live in without written permission from her.

[Meshugger]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html

 

FivethirtyEight grades ABC News/Washington Post polls as an A-.

 

 

"Trust in handle immigration": Clinton 50% - Trump 44% 

 

Tehehehe.

 

A lot of people fear that if Trump is elected that the USA will collapse.

 

What exactly do you mean? How? 

 

Edited May 22, 2016 by Meshugger

[Sweet_Sadie]

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html

 

FivethirtyEight grades ABC News/Washington Post polls as an A-.

 

 

"Trust in handle immigration": Clinton 50% - Trump 44% 

 

Tehehehe.

 

A lot of people fear that if Trump is elected that the USA will collapse.

 

What exactly do you mean? How? 

 

Where to begin? How 'bout with the Mexico wall. I don't care how high you build a wall, people will get over it. The shear expense of building it could bankrupt our society while Trumps buddies collect millions from the contracts to build it. Next, Trump has FAILED at every business he has tried. He is still worth approximately what he inherited from Daddy. Such a record of failure gives me every reason to believe he will destroy the US economy. If you watch his interviews, he appears to me to be a very ignorant, or perhaps insane, man. That's already enough to scare the 'whatever' out of me. I watched an interview with him where the interviewer asked him what he thought about being endorsed by David Duke (Grand Dragon Emeritus of the KKK). Trump kept responding that he didn't know the man and has never done business with him. What difference does that make? If Trump is a closet Ayrian, that could destroy the USA. And having the "football" in his possession scares me to no end. He could, without authorization from anyone, launch a nuclear attack against any country, even Arizona (small chuckle). He would need to get us to def con 5 first, but that doesn't take much.

[Meshugger]

Is that why people like him? Because he fails at business, will bancrupt the US, is insane, likes to hang around David Duke, will authorize nuke strikes on the very country that he claims to love so much and make great again?