US Elections 2016

[Malcador]

My second choice: Donald Trump. If you look through the "noises", (i.e., his supposedly "offensive" positions on illegal immigrants and Muslims - and neither concerns me,)

Rather disappointing that that doesn't concern you.

[Hurlshort]

I was just thinking what has Obama achieved in the last 8 years? Something that really stands out. I can't think of anything. Sure he may have attended an opening for something, or a charity. Nothing really memorable sticks out to me. He's been pretty boring imo. And when I think of GWB, man I could write pages. This is why I want Trump to win. The controversy, the gaffes, the Trumpisms. Exciting times!

 

The affordable care act, whether you love it or hate it, was a pretty big deal.  

[Elerond]

I was just thinking what has Obama achieved in the last 8 years? Something that really stands out. I can't think of anything. Sure he may have attended an opening for something, or a charity. Nothing really memorable sticks out to me. He's been pretty boring imo. And when I think of GWB, man I could write pages. This is why I want Trump to win. The controversy, the gaffes, the Trumpisms. Exciting times!

 

He drive his reform (Obamacare) to US health insurance market through. He ended US mission in Iraq. He increase US drone strikes against their enemies. He droved deals lowering sanctions with Cuba and Iran through even though Congress was against them. And so on. So about as memorable decisions as GWB but he didn't start two wars.

[Gorth]

I was just thinking what has Obama achieved in the last 8 years? Something that really stands out. I can't think of anything. Sure he may have attended an opening for something, or a charity. Nothing really memorable sticks out to me. He's been pretty boring imo. And when I think of GWB, man I could write pages. This is why I want Trump to win. The controversy, the gaffes, the Trumpisms. Exciting times!

 

Most "memorable" (because it's recent memory) for me would be the improved relations with Cuba and a possible normalisation of relations. One more small cold war leftover on the way out.

[Hiro Protagonist]

Meh, it'll all be overturned or forgotten.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

I want the overton window shifted

It already has. In fact I think it will shift even more if Trump and Bernie don't win their respective nominations.

[Drowsy Emperor]

Another problem with Hillary is that she wants to be president for the wrong reason. That being a self-centered obsession to prove her worth after her husband humiliated her in front of the whole nation. 

[Meshugger]

 

I want the overton window shifted

It already has. In fact I think it will shift even more if Trump and Bernie don't win their respective nominations.

 

 

I hope you're right.

[Hurlshort]

Meh, it'll all be overturned or forgotten.

 

ACA, or Obamacare, is not going to get overturned.  It may be changed, and it's got plenty of flaws, but you can't really go in reverse once you've made health insurance mandatory.  

[Meshugger]

 

Meh, it'll all be overturned or forgotten.

 

ACA, or Obamacare, is not going to get overturned.  It may be changed, and it's got plenty of flaws, but you can't really go in reverse once you've made health insurance mandatory.  

 

 

IIRC, Trump said that he would change Obamacare so that insurance companies would be able to compete over state-lines, meaning that there would be higher competition and prices would therefore fall. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

Of course, if that happens, nothing is going to stop from new conglomerates to emerge, effectively leaving people with 2-3 options either way. Who knows.

[Drowsy Emperor]

 

I was just thinking what has Obama achieved in the last 8 years? Something that really stands out. I can't think of anything. Sure he may have attended an opening for something, or a charity. Nothing really memorable sticks out to me. He's been pretty boring imo. And when I think of GWB, man I could write pages. This is why I want Trump to win. The controversy, the gaffes, the Trumpisms. Exciting times!

 

Most "memorable" (because it's recent memory) for me would be the improved relations with Cuba and a possible normalisation of relations. One more small cold war leftover on the way out.

 

 

For me the most memorable thing was the preemptive Nobel Peace prize. A case of lol wut? if I ever saw one.

 

Another memorable thing was the misconception that he was "weak", when in fact some of his foreign policy decisions made more political sense than any of his predecessors. Like in Syria, when he (and the administration naturally) realized that the mediocre forces the US controlled in the conflict had shifted allegiances, leaving the US without a horse in the race so to speak - and subsequently decided not to waste national resources to empower Saudi Arabia, Turkey etc. even with all the domestic clamoring for intervention. The fact was that in Syria Russians have genuine interests to defend and the US doesn't really have any, or at least not any they can realize to their own benefit (not Saudi or Turkish benefit).

In the media frenzy this was spun as Putin's victory, because Obama failed up to follow the chemical weapons threat - even though in politics its plainly better to sometimes bluff to maybe achieve something, rather than following up at all costs and losing out in the long run.

Edited March 2, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[ShadySands]

They were saying it was the highest turnout they'd ever seen for a primary

There were two lines and each one wrapped around the block in a different direction. Some places had to stop letting people in because they were beyond capacity and others had to move outside to accommodate everyone

[Rostere]

[ktchong]

So far Hillary Clinton has won only two swing states, while Bernie Sanders has won most of the swing states.  Most of Hillary Clinton's primary wins are Southern states, ((South Carolina,  Alabama,  Tennessee, Texas, etc.,) which are NOT gonna matter in the general election anyway.  In the general election, those states will go to the Republican nominee.  No Democratic nominee - Hillary or Bernie - will be able to win those solidly red Southern states when the general election comes.

Edited March 2, 2016 by ktchong

[Hurlshort]

Another problem with Hillary is that she wants to be president for the wrong reason. That being a self-centered obsession to prove her worth after her husband humiliated her in front of the whole nation. 

 

You are really starting to sound like one of the crazy conservative radio hosts that make their money off hyperbole and shock jock antics.

 

I don't like her politics and won't vote for her, but trying to demonize her when Trump is running across the way is hilarious.  He's a much better target.   

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

They were saying it was the highest turnout they'd ever seen for a primary

There were two lines and each one wrapped around the block in a different direction. Some places had to stop letting people in because they were beyond capacity and others had to move outside to accommodate everyone

Yeah I went during lunch and it wasn't crowded and voter turnout in Texas is abysmal.

 

 

 

I want the overton window shifted

 

It already has. In fact I think it will shift even more if Trump and Bernie don't win their respective nominations.

 

I hope you're right.

I am certain of the former and am willing to bet all pseudo-intellectual internet cred on the latter. Now how far it shifts is still unknown, but Bernie and Trump have pushed things too far for an easy return to the status quo.

[Elerond]

http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/02/democratic-turnout-down-32-in-super-tuesday-states-compared-to-2008/

 

Overall Super Tuesday turnouts: Democrats -32% compared to 2008, GOP +61% compared to 2008 and +73% compared to 2012. Which don't give democrats best predictions about general election.

[kgambit]

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/apply.asp

 

 

Edited March 2, 2016 by kgambit

[Malcador]

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/apply.asp

 

Nahh, stay and fight to change.  That and Canadians are largely all ****, passive aggressive ****, yes. But ****.

[Hurlshort]

I'm not sure I buy that the democratic turnout reflects on the general election.  You are still coming off 8 years of democratic leadership, meaning there isn't a terrible amount of panic about where the country is going on that side.  It will be a different scenario when you get to the general election.

[Leferd]

http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/02/democratic-turnout-down-32-in-super-tuesday-states-compared-to-2008/

 

Overall Super Tuesday turnouts: Democrats -32% compared to 2008, GOP +61% compared to 2008 and +73% compared to 2012. Which don't give democrats best predictions about general election.

That shouldn't be the takeaway at all. The Clinton juggernaut isn't mobilizing voters to come out and vote in the Primaries/Caucii as most democrats see the Clinton nomination as inevitable.

 

Aside from 538's pollster modeling, the best predictor of future election outcomes are the betting markets. History and record has shown this to be true. Of course, the models become more accurate as we get closer, but the current temperature is a Clinton victory -barring a momentous shift.

 

As of today, the Hibernian elites have the following odds for the November General Election:

 

Clinton: 1/2

Trump: 9/4

Rubio: 18/1

Cruz: 22/1

Sanders: 25/1

Kasich: 80/1

Edited March 2, 2016 by Leferd

[Hurlshort]

Pretty crazy that Sanders took 4 states and still has worse odds than Rubio.

[Leferd]

Clinton has the Democratic mandate with 60% of the overall vote. Trump only has about 35%. If Republicans were to successfully form an anti-Trump coalition, it's possible they can beat him.

[Elerond]

I'm not sure I buy that the democratic turnout reflects on the general election.  You are still coming off 8 years of democratic leadership, meaning there isn't a terrible amount of panic about where the country is going on that side.  It will be a different scenario when you get to the general election.

 

I was more referring to Republican turnout, they have now eagerness and desire to change leadership, like democrats had in 2008. So in general election democrats need to rise movement that gets people to vote, where GOP (Trump) has already one behind him. So republicans have fever for change where democrats feel content to current situation, and those who aren't content how things are run have higher likelihood to vote. Getting people vote somebody just to block somebody else is often more difficult task than continue snowball effect that Trump for example seems to have created (as he just don't win republican primaries but draw new people to vote).

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Pretty crazy that Sanders took 4 states and still has worse odds than Rubio.

And Cruz, who has won less states I think?

 

It's largely a bet on that if Cruz drops out he will rally the non-Trump GOP. Sanders has to overcome the Clinton machine, and while the future battles will largely be in more favorable territory it was a long shot to begin with. I'm willing to bet that even if Sanders manages to win the majority of delegates, he won't have enough to beat Hillary's super delegates.