Paris Climate Talks

[pmp10]

COP 21 talks in Paris have actually reached an agreement.

 

Of note is that this time voluntary pledges are up for verification every 5 years.

Other than that we are apparently hoping to limit warming to 1,5°C while planning for 2°C but polluting for over 3°C.

[HoonDing]

As the Dutch say: "dweilen met de kraan open".

[Wrath of Dagon]

Chinese are laughing their asses off while Western idiots pledge to destroy their own economies.

[Elerond]

Chinese are laughing their asses off while Western idiots pledge to destroy their own economies.

 

China was one of the countries that signed the agreement.

 

Environment has become quite big topic in China's domestic politic because of constant smog in their big cities.

 

But agreement mainly based on voluntary actions, so if one nation start to slide away it to gain advances in global market then most of the other countries will follow.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Of course they signed it, like I said they're laughing their asses off, why wouldn't they sign it? They have no intention of doing anything, they basically signed the West's surrender treaty. Yes, smog is a huge problem for them, they're poisoning their own people, but adding scrubbers will actually increase CO2 output.

Edited December 13, 2015 by Wrath of Dagon

[ShadySands]

What's the solution?

[pmp10]

You right that numbers from China are unreliable but you can only fudge the data so far before you get caught.

In fact China was called out on their coal consumption reports recently.

And they are slowly modernizing their energy sector so things should steadily improve.

When it comes to developing countries India is far bigger problem.

 

 

[Wrath of Dagon]

What's the solution?

There's no solution to a fantasy problem. http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/01/ding-dong-godfather-global-warming-dead/

 

 

You right that numbers from China are unreliable but you can only fudge the data so far before you get caught.

In fact China was called out on their coal consumption reports recently.

And they are slowly modernizing their energy sector so things should steadily improve.

When it comes to developing countries India is far bigger problem.

They're modernizing by building one coal power plant after another.

[Meshugger]

I've heard pledges, nice speeches, agreements and like since the conference in Rio in '92.

 

Lets say i am a bit sceptical about this.

[pmp10]

 

 

 

You right that numbers from China are unreliable but you can only fudge the data so far before you get caught.
In fact China was called out on their coal consumption reports recently.
And they are slowly modernizing their energy sector so things should steadily improve.
When it comes to developing countries India is far bigger problem.

They're modernizing by building one coal power plant after another.

 

They're modernizing by expanding all energy production, dirty and clean.

And that's to be expected from a developing country.

Overall China's direction is for now pretty reasonable considering their economic potential and low per-capita emissions.

 

I've heard pledges, nice speeches, agreements and like since the conference in Rio in '92.

 

Lets say i am a bit sceptical about this.

The difference this time is that every big player signed so it will be much harder to pull a Canada.

Of course some countries may attempt a pull-out but there is now a better chance than even that they will be stigmatized for doing so.

The targets and pledges system is indeed nonsensical but you can't move on to something better until consensus for action is established.

[Elerond]

If China don't start to something to their pollution, then it matters quite little what other countries will do as China's current emission numbers are higher than USA and EU combined, so if China is not in the the game then there is no game. 

 

In EU current agreement is seen as economical opportunity as EU has put hundreds of billions of dollars in greener energy solutions in past decade and now we have world leading cleantech companies, and our current interest is anyway to get rid using fossil oil, natural gas and coal. So our business and industrial sectors are currently very pleased for this agreement. So agreement don't actually really change plans that EU countries have it just gives hope that other countries in world will start to regulate more their emissions and which would give nice business opportunities for European companies. Also it most likely that billions of dollars support that was promised will be mostly in form of technology or discount for technology instead of direct funds and that will be justified by corruption and that it is cheaper just give the technology instead of rotate money back and forth. And with that EU countries can drop their direct support and tax reductions for cleantech companies. 

 

Also Russian seem to be bit excited about it as their oil and natural gas don't bring them money, as prices are so low thanks to OPEG's actions to prevent US's shale oil coming in the markets, but they are currently leading country in nuclear technology and nuclear power is easy way to produce lots of energy with smallish emissions, so if China really decided to lower their emissions it is quite likely that Russian nuclear technology is part of that solution and there will not even be similar problems as in Iran as China already has nuclear weapon.

 

So China has power to undermine the agreement, but as China is currently already under energy reform so this agreement that starts in 2020 isn't for them incentive to start one but more continue their current one. It is of course hard to say anything sure about China's political climate, but all sign that are shown give inclination that they want to make massive energy reform, but of course low time in their economy can change their plans in quite short amount of time.

 

The one country that I am most worried about that also has power to undermine the agreement is US, because in US there is quite lot opposition against dumping fossil fuels and there has been quite lot of investments in  shake oil and similar projects. Although there is California and many high tech companies that have vested interest to ensure success of cleantech solutions in US and outside of US.

 

So from European perspective agreement looks promising as it don't really change anything to us, but it may give us more opportunities if other countries keep their promises. So in this west will again be divided in US and Europe and other countries (not including South Africa if we count it as western country) are in somewhere in middle. Of course those countries in EU (+Norway) that have significant oil and gas production may have more negative perspective than those that don't. But biggest oil producers in EU have asked that EU would try to get UN to accept carbon pricing and other sorts of systems that support fuels that have less emissions of course they have vested interest to do so as they can't compete in production numbers but they are world leaders in cleaner fuel technologies.

[Guard Dog]

An unenforceable agreement to maybe do a few voluntary things. We'll all sleep better at night now I'm sure. Oh, wait. I wasn't losing sleep over this.

 

Well, now that we've saved the Earth, what are we going to do about the global warming of Mars? http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

 

After all if man made activity is responsible for what is happening here it's only logical that the increases in temperature on Mars is man made as well right?

[HoonDing]

Sillly pseudo Type-I civilizations.

[Elerond]

An unenforceable agreement to maybe do a few voluntary things. We'll all sleep better at night now I'm sure. Oh, wait. I wasn't losing sleep over this.

 

Well, now that we've saved the Earth, what are we going to do about the global warming of Mars? http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

 

After all if man made activity is responsible for what is happening here it's only logical that the increases in temperature on Mars is man made as well right?

 

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/research/2007/marswarming.html

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Global warming is a Hibernian lie to grow more potatoes.

[pmp10]

In EU current agreement is seen as economical opportunity as EU has put hundreds of billions of dollars in greener energy solutions in past decade and now we have world leading cleantech companies, and our current interest is anyway to get rid using fossil oil, natural gas and coal. So our business and industrial sectors are currently very pleased for this agreement. So agreement don't actually really change plans that EU countries have it just gives hope that other countries in world will start to regulate more their emissions and which would give nice business opportunities for European companies. Also it most likely that billions of dollars support that was promised will be mostly in form of technology or discount for technology instead of direct funds and that will be justified by corruption and that it is cheaper just give the technology instead of rotate money back and forth. And with that EU countries can drop their direct support and tax reductions for cleantech companies.

Pushing your own agendas is a great way to weaken any agreement.

For now EU greentech solutions cannot move past intermittency limitation and they can hardly cry foul if China or India chooses to develop their own.

 

Also Russian seem to be bit excited about it as their oil and natural gas don't bring them money, as prices are so low thanks to OPEG's actions to prevent US's shale oil coming in the markets, but they are currently leading country in nuclear technology and nuclear power is easy way to produce lots of energy with smallish emissions, so if China really decided to lower their emissions it is quite likely that Russian nuclear technology is part of that solution and there will not even be similar problems as in Iran as China already has nuclear weapon.

China is certainly pushing a expansion of it's nuclear industry but by now almost all technology is based on French/American/Japanese designs.

Russia may still be a major player in nuclear R&D but finding clients for reactors is becoming politically problematic.

[HoonDing]

Actually, a nuclear winter could be a solution to global warming.

[Elerond]

 

In EU current agreement is seen as economical opportunity as EU has put hundreds of billions of dollars in greener energy solutions in past decade and now we have world leading cleantech companies, and our current interest is anyway to get rid using fossil oil, natural gas and coal. So our business and industrial sectors are currently very pleased for this agreement. So agreement don't actually really change plans that EU countries have it just gives hope that other countries in world will start to regulate more their emissions and which would give nice business opportunities for European companies. Also it most likely that billions of dollars support that was promised will be mostly in form of technology or discount for technology instead of direct funds and that will be justified by corruption and that it is cheaper just give the technology instead of rotate money back and forth. And with that EU countries can drop their direct support and tax reductions for cleantech companies.

Pushing your own agendas is a great way to weaken any agreement.

For now EU greentech solutions cannot move past intermittency limitation and they can hardly cry foul if China or India chooses to develop their own.

 

Also Russian seem to be bit excited about it as their oil and natural gas don't bring them money, as prices are so low thanks to OPEG's actions to prevent US's shale oil coming in the markets, but they are currently leading country in nuclear technology and nuclear power is easy way to produce lots of energy with smallish emissions, so if China really decided to lower their emissions it is quite likely that Russian nuclear technology is part of that solution and there will not even be similar problems as in Iran as China already has nuclear weapon.

China is certainly pushing a expansion of it's nuclear industry but by now almost all technology is based on French/American/Japanese designs.

Russia may still be a major player in nuclear R&D but finding clients for reactors is becoming politically problematic.

 

 

If countries didn't have vested interest in different energy solution then this agreement would had been much easier process and it would have some actual solution in it. Also about caring that EU has for other countries climate worries is quite low as EU has been quite alone for over decade in moving their energy sector towards cleaner solutions. So if this agreement don't work or it start to hurt EU economically you can be quite sure that EU is out or EU will fall apart (this is assessment that is made by quite lot of experts and politician in EU, as inner politics of EU aren't currently in good place and anti-EU parties use every weapon they get to ensure their success, this agreement will not be any different). 

Also China and India are welcome to try do their own cleantech solutions, but they are currently far behind and their economy and ability research new solution same time as trying to cut their emission will not be easy thing to do. Which is why European cleantech industries are excited about the agreement, as their products are cheapest and easiest solutions that are currently in market, of course that will change, but it will take at least little of time. If European companies can't compete when others start to bring their solutions then they can only blame themselves even though they are more likely blaming something else like governmental support for Chinese companies or Euro or something else.

 

It may be politically problematic for Rosatom to find new clients from west, but they are building new AES-2006 VVER type reactor in here Finland starting 2018, and they also have plans of building new nuclear plants in Egypt and Vietnam. And Russia don't have similar political problems with China as they have with western nations. Japanese companies on other hand have much more difficult time in China (politically speaking).

[Wrath of Dagon]

The only one who believes something has actually been achieved is Obola, living in his rainbow and unicorns world:

“It’s a fraud really, a fake,” he says, rubbing his head. “It’s just bull**** for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/james-hansen-climate-change-paris-talks-fraud

[pmp10]

The only one who believes something has actually been achieved is Obola, living in his rainbow and unicorns world:

“It’s a fraud really, a fake,” he says, rubbing his head. “It’s just bull**** for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/james-hansen-climate-change-paris-talks-fraud

 

He is advocating stronger changes and enforceability.

He certainly doesn't support the idea that climate change is a hoax.

And citing the guardian is a bit ironic since Hansen has been called a 'new denier' just recently for support of nuclear power.