2.03: Random Accuracy Rolls

[Anaeme]

I am noticing that even with high accuracy scores (+8 and up) on my character I encounter several consecutive misses in a row.

 

This is happening because of very low random accuracy rolls that accompany each attack.

 

 

This is not normal, it should not be possible for a high accuracy character to have random rolls below 10 up to six times consecutively

 

 

 

[AndreaColombo]

Not sure I follow.

 

Attack rolls are based on random d100 that can really be anything at any time (though it likely makes use of a semi-random algorithm to simulate randomness, but that's beside the point.) Having high Accuracy just means it is more likely for you to hit or cit than it is to miss or graze, but a low roll can always happen and - at the end of the day - it is always your Accuracy + roll vs. the enemy's Deflection (or whatever defense you are targeting.)

 

If you are getting low rolls all the time in every fight, that might be the symptom of an issue; barring that, I would pen it to bad luck.

[Anaeme]

I think something is off if I am seeing 5 consecutive misses with rolls under 10...that can't just be bad luck

[Depili]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

[Abradoks]

though it likely makes use of a semi-random algorithm to simulate randomness, but that's beside the point

Actually, it is the point. Pseudorandom numbers are used out of place in many games causing a lot of frustration for players.

 

Getting drastically different outcome for the same combat strategy just because you get too many "unlucky" rolls in a row would be one example.

 

There are other types of distributions that have more fitting properties than PRNGs do. For example, check the subrandom numbers on the left vs. random numbers on the right:

 

And changing the function used for accuracy rolls is a very simple task for a programmer.

[Anaeme]

One way this was handled in Neverwinter Nights was to create a 'minimum accuracy roll' as you increase your accuracy score.

 

In effect someone with a Perception Score of 20 (thus accuracy of 10) should never get a random accuracy roll of 1 or 2...something like that

 

 

It makes no sense for a character who has trained accuracy to be getting random rolls that are that low.

[Abradoks]

One way this was handled in Neverwinter Nights was to create a 'minimum accuracy roll' as you increase your accuracy score.

That part is already in the game: if you have high enough accuracy, you won't get a miss, no matter how low your roll is.

 

But that's different from the problem you've described in the first post, when you were getting many bad rolls in a row.

[Aarik D]

Hello Anaeme,

 

Do you by chance have a save file that showcases this issue? Could you please upload that save along with an output log via dropbox so I can take a look? Do you have any debuffs on your character what would lower your accuracy or stats? 

 

Thanks a bunch!

[thebigJ_A]

 

I think something is off if I am seeing 5 consecutive misses with rolls under 10...that can't just be bad luck

 

Somebody doesn't know what "random" means. Or how accuracy works in this game. 

 

That's precisely bad luck, and not even very unlikely bad luck tbh

 

It's perfectly possible to roll several or many low rolls. Just like you can get 5 tails in a row flipping coins, or even ten or more. It's also right and proper that it be so. It's a 0-100 roll. Your Accuracy *modifies* the roll already, right after.. High enough accuracy and misses become less and less possible. Making low rolls is always just as likely as making any other rolls, but they matter less with higher ACC

Edited November 3, 2015 by thebigJ_A