The current refugee wave in Europe

[Malcador]

Interesting to see Kosovars in that statistic.

[Darkpriest]

There seems to be some information that Syrian armed forces are getting reinforced by a significant Iranian armed troops group and Lebanese Hezbollah militians and they will run a land offensive vs "ISIS" (meaning all enemies of Assad, including ISIS) with a heavy support of Russian airforce.

 

If this will be a successful operation, hats off and respect on political prowess of Putin, even though in the last couple of years he got burnt and overestimated his influence a couple of times.

 

It seems it already resonates in the region as the Iraq's government is asking Russia also for their air support over their country...

[BruceVC]

There seems to be some information that Syrian armed forces are getting reinforced by a significant Iranian armed troops group and Lebanese Hezbollah militians and they will run a land offensive vs "ISIS" (meaning all enemies of Assad, including ISIS) with a heavy support of Russian airforce.

 

If this will be a successful operation, hats off and respect on political prowess of Putin, even though in the last couple of years he got burnt and overestimated his influence a couple of times.

 

It seems it already resonates in the region as the Iraq's government is asking Russia also for their air support over their country...

The Russian are welcome to the ME, they will quickly realize what a difficult place it is to be involved in

 

Personally I don't think they have the real commitment to make a  meaningful difference but lets see how things progress 

[Varana]

Yep, now Russia is meddling in the Middle East. Wasn't that kind of bad a few pages ago when the U.S. and "the West" had been accused* of it?

 

Also funny where they bomb. There's no IS at Homs. Just as in Ukraine, Russia declares some random faction standing in their way as "terrorist" or "fascist" and goes to shell them. No, they don't try to solve the crisis in Syria. They try to keep their lackey in power - the one that, despite all of IS' crimes, is still responsible for the large majority of deaths, destruction, and displaced persons in the country. Great move, Chechnya says Hi.

 

As for Kosovars, the current percentage of people from Kosovo who are granted asylum in Germany is somewhere between 0.1 and 0.2 percent. (And there's also large groups of people from Macedonia, Albania, and yes, Serbia trying their luck, with similar acceptance rates.)

Apart from that, I have a really hard time to be sympathetic to many actual and perceived grievances in former Yugoslavia. The hatred, blind nationalism, and continued enmity has nothing to do with Europe or NATO and everything with the complete refusal to acknowledge one's own faults and work towards any meaningful form of reconciliation. Polish is a Slavic language, but apparently, "przebaczamy i prosimy o przebaczenie" sounds like backwards Chinese in Yugoslavia.

 

* I'm quite sure I butchered the tense.

 

P.S. Yes, I'm probably very unfair to many people in former Yugoslavia. I'm also rather bitter as the haters seem to dominate the public image.

[Malcador]

Ah, if only they had stayed out of it in Libya. But candies and nuts and all.

[BruceVC]

Yep, now Russia is meddling in the Middle East. Wasn't that kind of bad a few pages ago when the U.S. and "the West" had been accused* of it?

 

Also funny where they bomb. There's no IS at Homs. Just as in Ukraine, Russia declares some random faction standing in their way as "terrorist" or "fascist" and goes to shell them. No, they don't try to solve the crisis in Syria. They try to keep their lackey in power - the one that, despite all of IS' crimes, is still responsible for the large majority of deaths, destruction, and displaced persons in the country. Great move, Chechnya says Hi.

 

As for Kosovars, the current percentage of people from Kosovo who are granted asylum in Germany is somewhere between 0.1 and 0.2 percent. (And there's also large groups of people from Macedonia, Albania, and yes, Serbia trying their luck, with similar acceptance rates.)

Apart from that, I have a really hard time to be sympathetic to many actual and perceived grievances in former Yugoslavia. The hatred, blind nationalism, and continued enmity has nothing to do with Europe or NATO and everything with the complete refusal to acknowledge one's own faults and work towards any meaningful form of reconciliation. Polish is a Slavic language, but apparently, "przebaczamy i prosimy o przebaczenie" sounds like backwards Chinese in Yugoslavia.

 

* I'm quite sure I butchered the tense.

 

P.S. Yes, I'm probably very unfair to many people in former Yugoslavia. I'm also rather bitter as the haters seem to dominate the public image.

Yeah the whole Russian involvement does seem a little late and ultimately lackluster

 

Think about the best result, somehow the Russians manage to beat the Free Syrian Army and ISIS and the Al-Qaeda groups in Syria and Assad stays in power ....in power of what? He will be alienated by the West and most of the ME....his country will stay broken and completely economic dependent on Iran and other allies ....a Russian victory would be a Pyrrhic Victory. If the West  was involved then it would work but I doubt they would help Russia to help Assad...and I can't blame them

 

Drowsy doesnt generally  want to acknowledge much Serbian responsibility for any atrocities or blame for there involvement in Bosnia or Kosovo. Its the most bizarre thing  as I accept my families role in Apartheid and I condemn the system ....but it doesn't define me

 

Its strange how most Serbs I speak to dont want to accept there role in the wars....its not a big deal as it should be seen as a way to actually liberate people.  

[Zoraptor]

Yep, now Russia is meddling in the Middle East. Wasn't that kind of bad a few pages ago when the U.S. and "the West" had been accused* of it?

It's bad because the west has consistently made a mess of things, has had a year to degrade ISIS with little progress shown and apart from having made a mess of things looks likely to make a further mess of things with no consistent strategy from the past, present or future. Russian intervention can scarcely be worse than that. Plus, if you happen to loathe retrograde extremists you can pretty much guarantee that Russia will go after the lot, not just selective ones based on not offending certain 'allies'.

 

Also funny where they bomb. There's no IS at Homs. Just as in Ukraine, Russia declares some random faction standing in their way as "terrorist" or "fascist" and goes to shell them. No, they don't try to solve the crisis in Syria. They try to keep their lackey in power - the one that, despite all of IS' crimes, is still responsible for the large majority of deaths, destruction, and displaced persons in the country. Great move, Chechnya says Hi.

There's ISIS in Homs Governate- eg the Christian town of Al-Qaryatayn.  Indeed, ISIS holds more of Homs Governate than the government does. That's one of the reasons why I don't take western media seriously, they conflate the city of Homs which has no ISIS- and most definitively was not bombed- with Homs Governate which most certainly does have ISIS, no responsible or informed entity should be making that mistake. The particular area that has supposedly been bombed in Homs Governate is about 20 miles Homs city and is partly held by Jabhat Al Nusra/ Al Qaeda, not just by the beatnik lentil eating progressive opposition.

 

The sole difference is that when the US decides to bomb JAN they decide to call them 'Khorasan' because they don't want to actually mention JAN. They're inconveniently big buddies with direct Saudi/ Turkish proxies like Ahrar ash Sham- who are themselves basically JAN, just without the overt AlQ link- so much so that they have an integrated leadership in Jaish al Fatah ('Army of Conquest').

 

While I'm pretty surprised at direct Russian intervention they will definitely go for the high strategic value targets and from the government pov ISIS doesn't have many of them, ISIS territory is mostly distal from key areas like Damascus and Latakia. Maybe Palmyra for the gas fields and PR, maybe Kuweires and Qaryatayn also for the PR but key ISIS territory like Raqqa is a long, long way from government territory plus it's sparsely populated.

[BruceVC]

 

Yep, now Russia is meddling in the Middle East. Wasn't that kind of bad a few pages ago when the U.S. and "the West" had been accused* of it?

It's bad because the west has consistently made a mess of things, has had a year to degrade ISIS with little progress shown and apart from having made a mess of things looks likely to make a further mess of things with no consistent strategy from the past, present or future. Russian intervention can scarcely be worse than that. Plus, if you happen to loathe retrograde extremists you can pretty much guarantee that Russia will go after the lot, not just selective ones based on not offending certain 'allies'.

 

No Zora your view about the West in Syria is wrong...again

 

 

They know to defeat ISIS ground troops are needed....but why should Western soldiers have to die for a ME conflict ? So its more a case of " its not worth the sacrifice and commitment of resources " 

 

And the airstrikes helped prevent the massacre of tens of thousands of Yazidis....it seems you conveniently forget that but I understand its hard to give credit to the West 

[Malcador]

If you're arguing about being worth it, why is the current half assed approach worth it?

[Zoraptor]

To be fair, I'll give the west credit for helping out the Yazidis even if it was primarily PR- but I'd bet every cent in my bank account that they wouldn't have lifted a finger for Fuah/ Kefraya, and they certainly didn't for Qaryatayn.

 

But, that is primarily why the west is even as involved as it is, PR. Ironically that is probably better than any realistic alternative, especially considering what some in their 'coalition' really want. If Saudi really tries direct military intervention against Assad as threatened things will get... interesting, very quickly.

[BruceVC]

If you're arguing about being worth it, why is the current half assed approach worth it?

 

To be fair, I'll give the west credit for helping out the Yazidis even if it was primarily PR- but I'd bet every cent in my bank account that they wouldn't have lifted a finger for Fuah/ Kefraya, and they certainly didn't for Qaryatayn.

 

But, that is primarily why the west is even as involved as it is, PR. Ironically that is probably better than any realistic alternative, especially considering what some in their 'coalition' really want. If Saudi really tries direct military intervention against Assad as threatened things will get... interesting, very quickly.

Okay so Malc has raised a valid question " why only airstrikes ïf they aren't enough to defeat ISIS " 

 

So I think the USA did feel some responsibility for the the disastrous state that Iraq deteriorated to 3 years after the last US troops left...and I think the idea of a genocide that they were indirectly responsible for would have been something that they wouldn't want to be associated with

 

But there were several informed opinions that said airstrikes weren't enough and this was something Obama would have been aware of , the USA is relying on coalition partners like the Kurds to do the ground fighting but this is clearly not working

 

But I'm sorry I don't see why the West should commit ground troops so what Zora said is also relevant. Its the " best " strategy under the circumstances. 

[213374U]

 

Yep, now Russia is meddling in the Middle East. Wasn't that kind of bad a few pages ago when the U.S. and "the West" had been accused* of it?

It's bad because the west has consistently made a mess of things, has had a year to degrade ISIS with little progress shown and apart from having made a mess of things looks likely to make a further mess of things with no consistent strategy from the past, present or future. Russian intervention can scarcely be worse than that. Plus, if you happen to loathe retrograde extremists you can pretty much guarantee that Russia will go after the lot, not just selective ones based on not offending certain 'allies'.

 

I very much doubt that Russia can simply bomb Assad's problems away — the US have shown that solely airpower is not enough to defeat threats even when they were bona fide trying to win wars. Assad had his own airforce too, and his army has been utterly incapable of capitalising on it. I doubt it will magically become an effective fighting force with Russian warplanes involved.

 

It's going to take boots on the ground to give Assad the definite upper hand, and Russia's track record isn't exactly great wrt asymmetric conflicts (and whose is?). I wouldn't want to be a Russian conscript right now.

 

And then there's the House of Saud... ah, such fine allies they make.

[Zoraptor]

I agree that Russian intervention won't be an instant panacea. He needs better military leadership at all levels, better strategic thinking and better training for the troops he has; he does have enough troops to do the job as it stands but he lacks the ability to use them effectively with coordination and to avoid unnecessary losses. Out of those the Russians can provide better top level leadership and better intelligence resulting in fewer unnecessary gaffes and wastage, as well as having better air craft and crews for a proper combined arms approach and in the longer term they can provide better training. While Syria has a theoretically decent air force it's woefully unsuited for fighting an armed insurgency as their strike aircraft are ancient and were almost entirely unmodernised and using unguided munitions and their helicopters susceptible to AAA; the Russians should be far better able to monitor troop movements, interdict and strike precisely and where tactically and strategically important.

 

It does seem likely that Assad is going to get (is already getting, by some reports) an influx of Iranian 'volunteers' to stiffen up his forces in any case, and debadged Hezbollah types are likely to hang around as well.

 

Basically though, the government forces have made a series of utterly catastrophic strategic blunders in the past year that the Russians should be able to help prevent- trying to defend long salients, not maintaining objectives and splitting effective units up into small ineffective units trying to do too much with too little all at once and frittering away resources needlessly. And perhaps most importantly they've let the rebels get huge stockpiles of weapons and ammunition from their blunders as well.

[Darkpriest]

I am not saying it is good, but bringing back the status quo from before the Western intervention can hardly make it worse.

 

Sure, there will be an **** at the steering wheel of a country, but at least it will be a fairly secular **** who understands the language of international money... and is not complete nuts.

 

The difference is, that Russians support governments in the region, and not the mass of various groups with different interest conviniently called opposition or rebels.

 

Obviously their goal is to gain influence with current regimes in the region but IMO if those regimes are to change, the change has to be done in the peaceful way as the case of Communist block shown. It will take more than 1 try and more than a couple years but that is the only 100% safe way that will put non militant groups in power.

 

At this point I'd rather have middle east from early 90s than the current one. Then at least you could travel fairly safely to all countries there...

[Chilloutman]

Syria is problem without resolution. Either you will get dictator here, or bunch of religious fanatics in power. Thats why 'west' is unnable to solve it. There is no clear 'right' choice neither any democratic party with enough support

[BruceVC]

I am not saying it is good, but bringing back the status quo from before the Western intervention can hardly make it worse.

 

Sure, there will be an **** at the steering wheel of a country, but at least it will be a fairly secular **** who understands the language of international money... and is not complete nuts.

 

The difference is, that Russians support governments in the region, and not the mass of various groups with different interest conviniently called opposition or rebels.

 

Obviously their goal is to gain influence with current regimes in the region but IMO if those regimes are to change, the change has to be done in the peaceful way as the case of Communist block shown. It will take more than 1 try and more than a couple years but that is the only 100% safe way that will put non militant groups in power.

 

At this point I'd rather have middle east from early 90s than the current one. Then at least you could travel fairly safely to all countries there...

 

Lets be honest do we really care about the ME? I'm not being hateful but they don't care about me and thats fine. Of course I would rather there was peace and the average citizen had a good life but end of the day until the governments in the region start adopting the proper principles of what a Democracy stands for and what real human rights means they are just going to be going through turmoil

 

Yeah and you right, Assad can stay in power. He is a mass murderer  of his own people and doesn't deserve to rule a country but this is the ME, I'm done getting upset with people who are intransigent. I'm happy with the fact the  Iran negotiations went well and as long as the Gulf states are peaceful then thats probably the best I can hope for under the current circumstances 

Syria is problem without resolution. Either you will get dictator here, or bunch of religious fanatics in power. Thats why 'west' is unnable to solve it. There is no clear 'right' choice neither any democratic party with enough support

Well I know one thing, we can't send in you Czechs to handle the negotiations with the Syrians .....you guys aren't that good at dealing with Muslims it seems? I was watching how some Syrians who came to Czech were marked with some stamp...like prisoners in a concentration camp ...

 

Oh well ...you can't be good at everything   

[Chilloutman]

 

Syria is problem without resolution. Either you will get dictator here, or bunch of religious fanatics in power. Thats why 'west' is unnable to solve it. There is no clear 'right' choice neither any democratic party with enough support

Well I know one thing, we can't send in you Czechs to handle the negotiations with the Syrians .....you guys aren't that good at dealing with Muslims it seems? I was watching how some Syrians who came to Czech were marked with some stamp...like prisoners in a concentration camp ...

 

Oh well ...you can't be good at everything   

 

 

Ah, you didn't comment anything I said at all. But oh well, what to expect from you right?

 

And yeah they get numbers on hands (same we do to new born baby so its not switched to someone else baby in hospital) because they didn't got any documentation. Do you have better idea how to identify someone? . Anyway we in Czech are laughting on EU currently. For example there is free border crossing inside EU and we are supposed to get some refugees via quotas, but how on Earth we are supposed to keep them here when Motherland Merkland is right next to us? I don't even bring up how much less our social system is giving

[BruceVC]

 

 

Syria is problem without resolution. Either you will get dictator here, or bunch of religious fanatics in power. Thats why 'west' is unnable to solve it. There is no clear 'right' choice neither any democratic party with enough support

Well I know one thing, we can't send in you Czechs to handle the negotiations with the Syrians .....you guys aren't that good at dealing with Muslims it seems? I was watching how some Syrians who came to Czech were marked with some stamp...like prisoners in a concentration camp ...

 

Oh well ...you can't be good at everything   

 

 

Ah, you didn't comment anything I said at all. But oh well, what to expect from you right?

 

And yeah they get numbers on hands (same we do to new born baby so its not switched to someone else baby in hospital) because they didn't got any documentation. Do you have better idea how to identify someone? . Anyway we in Czech are laughting on EU currently. For example there is free border crossing inside EU and we are supposed to get some refugees via quotas, but how on Earth we are supposed to keep them here when Motherland Merkland is right next to us? I don't even bring up how much less our social system is giving

 

Sorry I had commented earlier, the West could have solved the Syrian problem  in the beginning. They would have removed Assad like Gaddafi and then left the country in the hands of the Free Syrian Army....would that have been maintained peacefully? Who knows ....look at Libya now but I assume Libya would have been helped by The West and the Sunni countries. But end of the day I don't know ...but surly its better than the current disaster 

 

Don't worry about getting refugees...you guys have done a good job at putting them off wanting to immigrate to Czech. But my view is the Syrians shouldn't be coming to the EU at all in these numbers and even then the EU shouldn't be forcing countries like Hungary and Czech to accept refugees. There are too many cultural differences and thats understandable 

[Chilloutman]

Sorry I had commented earlier, the West could have solved the Syrian problem  in the beginning. They would have removed Assad like Gaddafi and then left the country in the hands of the Free Syrian Army....would that have been maintained peacefully? Who knows ....look at Libya now but I assume Libya would have been helped by The West and the Sunni countries. But end of the day I don't know ...but surly its better than the current disaster 

 

Don't worry about getting refugees...you guys have done a good job at putting them off wanting to immigrate to Czech. But my view is the Syrians shouldn't be coming to the EU at all in these numbers and even then the EU shouldn't be forcing countries like Hungary and Czech to accept refugees. There are too many cultural differences and thats understandable

I am not well informed about Lybia but as far as I know there were no ground troops either. And think you are overlooking is that OSN dont have mandate to send troops here as it Russia veto it as there is no formal invitation from legit goverment. So you are saying that 'west' should break its own rules and laws?

[BruceVC]

 

Sorry I had commented earlier, the West could have solved the Syrian problem  in the beginning. They would have removed Assad like Gaddafi and then left the country in the hands of the Free Syrian Army....would that have been maintained peacefully? Who knows ....look at Libya now but I assume Libya would have been helped by The West and the Sunni countries. But end of the day I don't know ...but surly its better than the current disaster 

 

Don't worry about getting refugees...you guys have done a good job at putting them off wanting to immigrate to Czech. But my view is the Syrians shouldn't be coming to the EU at all in these numbers and even then the EU shouldn't be forcing countries like Hungary and Czech to accept refugees. There are too many cultural differences and thats understandable

I am not well informed about Lybia but as far as I know there were no ground troops either. And think you are overlooking is that OSN dont have mandate to send troops here as it Russia veto it as there is no formal invitation from legit goverment. So you are saying that 'west' should break its own rules and laws?

 

Yes let me explain further, any type of regime change like this would require ground troops. Libya was exactly like that, the West used airstrikes to destroy Gaddafi's artillery and military hardware. But the hard city to city fighting was done by the Libyan rebels. Syria in the beginning was the same, the Syrian rebels wanted the West to destroy Assads military hardware but they were prepared to do the hand to hand fighting which would have been much more brutal than Libya 

 

And yes you correct the Russians and Chinese vetoed the West intervening in the beginning of the Syrian conflict and I'm glad that they are respecting the UN Security council....so they must not  rules of the UN 

[Chilloutman]

 

 

Sorry I had commented earlier, the West could have solved the Syrian problem  in the beginning. They would have removed Assad like Gaddafi and then left the country in the hands of the Free Syrian Army....would that have been maintained peacefully? Who knows ....look at Libya now but I assume Libya would have been helped by The West and the Sunni countries. But end of the day I don't know ...but surly its better than the current disaster 

 

Don't worry about getting refugees...you guys have done a good job at putting them off wanting to immigrate to Czech. But my view is the Syrians shouldn't be coming to the EU at all in these numbers and even then the EU shouldn't be forcing countries like Hungary and Czech to accept refugees. There are too many cultural differences and thats understandable

I am not well informed about Lybia but as far as I know there were no ground troops either. And think you are overlooking is that OSN dont have mandate to send troops here as it Russia veto it as there is no formal invitation from legit goverment. So you are saying that 'west' should break its own rules and laws?

 

Yes let me explain further, any type of regime change like this would require ground troops. Libya was exactly like that, the West used airstrikes to destroy Gaddafi's artillery and military hardware. But the hard city to city fighting was done by the Libyan rebels. Syria in the beginning was the same, the Syrian rebels wanted the West to destroy Assads military hardware but they were prepared to do the hand to hand fighting which would have been much more brutal than Libya 

 

And yes you correct the Russians and Chinese vetoed the West intervening in the beginning of the Syrian conflict and I'm glad that they are respecting the UN Security council....so they must not  rules of the UN

 

Still evading my question do you

[BruceVC]

 

 

 

Sorry I had commented earlier, the West could have solved the Syrian problem  in the beginning. They would have removed Assad like Gaddafi and then left the country in the hands of the Free Syrian Army....would that have been maintained peacefully? Who knows ....look at Libya now but I assume Libya would have been helped by The West and the Sunni countries. But end of the day I don't know ...but surly its better than the current disaster 

 

Don't worry about getting refugees...you guys have done a good job at putting them off wanting to immigrate to Czech. But my view is the Syrians shouldn't be coming to the EU at all in these numbers and even then the EU shouldn't be forcing countries like Hungary and Czech to accept refugees. There are too many cultural differences and thats understandable

I am not well informed about Lybia but as far as I know there were no ground troops either. And think you are overlooking is that OSN dont have mandate to send troops here as it Russia veto it as there is no formal invitation from legit goverment. So you are saying that 'west' should break its own rules and laws?

 

Yes let me explain further, any type of regime change like this would require ground troops. Libya was exactly like that, the West used airstrikes to destroy Gaddafi's artillery and military hardware. But the hard city to city fighting was done by the Libyan rebels. Syria in the beginning was the same, the Syrian rebels wanted the West to destroy Assads military hardware but they were prepared to do the hand to hand fighting which would have been much more brutal than Libya 

 

And yes you correct the Russians and Chinese vetoed the West intervening in the beginning of the Syrian conflict and I'm glad that they are respecting the UN Security council....so they must not  rules of the UN

 

Still evading my question do you

 

I thought I did answer it, my bad. What question are you referring to?

[Chilloutman]

So you are saying that 'west' should break its own rules and laws?

[BruceVC]

So you are saying that 'west' should break its own rules and laws?

No, the West needs to abide by the rules of the United Nations Security Council and respect the veto

 

But these aren't the West rules, these are the UN and therefore global rules 

[Chilloutman]

 

So you are saying that 'west' should break its own rules and laws?

No, the West needs to abide by the rules of the United Nations Security Council and respect the veto

 

But these aren't the West rules, these are the UN and therefore global rules

 

Yeah, but not everyone on the world follows them - back to the topic - so want is your problem, 'west' can't intervene even if want. So what is your solution?