Ukraine Discussion

[CoM_Solaufein]

Continue discussion on the former Soviet state's problems here.

 

Old topic  http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/67588-ukraine-discussion/page-1

 

[Sarex]

I think this is number 6 or 7...

[CoM_Solaufein]

Just remove the 2 then. The last topic didn't have a page number.

[Chilloutman]

Seems like Russian economy is going down pretty fast..

 

http://fortune.com/2014/12/15/the-rubles-collapse-is-disastrous-for-putin-and-bad-for-you-too/

 

On one hand I am sad for people living there - on other hand - well majority of them are blind supporters of Putins aggresive policy and they will gladly have another argument about 'evil west'

[BruceVC]

Seems like Russian economy is going down pretty fast..

 

http://fortune.com/2014/12/15/the-rubles-collapse-is-disastrous-for-putin-and-bad-for-you-too/

 

On one hand I am sad for people living there - on other hand - well majority of them are blind supporters of Putins aggresive policy and they will gladly have another argument about 'evil west'

 

Yes that is correct, I have mentioned this several times but the Russian economy's free fall is due to the falling oil price and sanctions

 

You don't always need  military intervention to get countries to change there actions  and political decisions. Sanctions can and do work, they just work slower

 

There are of course examples where you have no choice but military intervention to prevent mass killings and genocide. Like in Libya, Serbia and the airstrikes against ISIS

 

And the Putin internal propaganda machine has  convinced most Russians that the interference in Ukraine is legitimate and in fact  is basically a Russian right to protect its borders from the encroaching EU and Western ideology

 

Its a massive exaggeration of course but Putins popularity is still very high

 

But yes the state of the Russian economy  is a direct cause of Putins policies so I don't have too much sympathy

[Malcador]

Well, have they really worked ? Crimea is still in Russian hands and the Good Ukranians still haven't won. I guess hurting Russia was an end in itself, but is it oil prices falling hurting more than sanctions ?

 

Wait, what genocide was going in Libya, by the way ?

[Mr. Magniloquent]

Seems like Russian economy is going down pretty fast..

 

http://fortune.com/2014/12/15/the-rubles-collapse-is-disastrous-for-putin-and-bad-for-you-too/

 

On one hand I am sad for people living there - on other hand - well majority of them are blind supporters of Putins aggresive policy and they will gladly have another argument about 'evil west'

 

Yes that is correct, I have mentioned this several times but the Russian economy's free fall is due to the falling oil price and sanctions

 

You don't always need  military intervention to get countries to change there actions  and political decisions. Sanctions can and do work, they just work slower

 

The USA used Saudi Arabia to do the exact same thing in mid/late 1980s. They jerked The House of Saud's chain to lower oil prices, which crashed the Soviet economy that was dependent on energy exports. The secondary target is Iran, a mutual adversary to the USA, Saudi Royalty, and Israel.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-10/why-oil-plunging-other-part-secret-deal-between-us-and-saudi-arabia

 

http://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2014/10/us-saudi-arabia-oil-prices-collusion-calculations-and-errors-3051586.html

 

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/19/are_the_united_states_and_saudi_arabia_conspiring_to_keep_oil_prices_down.html

 

They will not be able to keep oil prices this way for more than 2 years though. The Gawhar reservoir in Saudi Arabia is drying up, and with demand stimulated as it is they will not be able to keep up with it--even with the aid of Qatar and Kuwait. It's also not in their long term interests to do so, because well--all of those actors (including the USA) are totally dependent on oil for their maintenance of influence and power. The oil price shock is a desperate move made because China, Russia, Brazil, India, Turkey, and many more countries are engaging in swap agreements that circumvent the US dollar. Russia & China are actually now testing their alternative to the SWIFT system--which is very bad news for the USA.

 

 

There are of course examples where you have no choice but military intervention to prevent mass killings and genocide. Like in Libya, Serbia and the airstrikes against ISIS

 

ISIS is a creation of the USA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Britain, and Israel.

 

America's Allies are Funding ISIS

 

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/169117

 

Rebel Gas Attack Supplied by Saudis

 

ISIS a Creation of USA & Israel

 

Noam Chomsky: USA Created ISIS

 

That's just a snippet from this year's news. There are so much more.

 

 

There are of course examples where you have no choice but military intervention to prevent mass killings and genocide. Like in Libya, Serbia and the airstrikes against ISIS

 

Every time I read one of your comments, I'm dumbfounded by how deeply you are dominated by Western lies. You very desperately need to get rid of your television. Lybia was not about humanitarian aid! It was about two things Gold and Oil! Gaddafhi was refusing to accept US dollars for oil and was reintroducing the Gold Dinar as a standard form of physical currency in Africa. At the same time, Hugo Chavez was demanding delivery for all the physical gold that they held in foreign countries.

 

If they hadn't delivered the gold, which they did in fact not have--it would have caused a MASSIVE worldwide financial crisis were every western currency would implode and devalue by 100% or more. This would have been a WWIII moment--instantly. Likewise, the USA cannot tolerate ANYONE challenging the Petro Dollar Standard. Ask Saddam. A few months after accepting only Euros and Gold for oil the USA brought "Democracy" to Iraq.

 

And the Putin internal propaganda machine has  convinced most Russians that the interference in Ukraine is legitimate and in fact  is basically a Russian right to protect its borders from the encroaching EU and Western ideology

 

Ever heard of the Color Revolutions?

 

Lotus Revolution: Egypt

Green Revolution: Iran

Purple Revolultion: Iraq

Velvet Revolution: Czechoslovakia

Orange Revolution: Ukraine

Rose Revolution: Georgia

Tulip Revolution: Kyrgzstan

 

All of those backed by the USA and their "Non-Government Organizations" like the George Soros Foundation, the National Endowment for Democracy, and USAID. Those are just the relatively peaceful sabotage of foreign governments. Russia has EVERY reason to be on guard.

[Chilloutman]

Well, have they really worked ? Crimea is still in Russian hands and the Good Ukranians still haven't won. I guess hurting Russia was an end in itself, but is it oil prices falling hurting more than sanctions ?

 

Wait, what genocide was going in Libya, by the way ?

Well to be honest, I am not sure which sanctions are hurting people in russia more - those from EU which is blocking big oligarchs and banking/military sector or those put by Putin blocking import of food :/

[Chilloutman]

Ever heard of the Color Revolutions?

 

 

Velvet Revolution: Czechoslovakia

 

All of those backed by the USA and their "Non-Government Organizations" like the George Soros Foundation, the National Endowment for Democracy, and USAID. Those are just the relatively peaceful sabotage of foreign governments. Russia has EVERY reason to be on guard.

LOL it was Russia in first place who occupied Czechoslovakia - there was no need for any foreign interference to force people to hate them - it was pretty natural

[Malcador]

Well to be honest, I am not sure which sanctions are hurting people in russia more - those from EU which is blocking big oligarchs and banking/military sector or those put by Putin blocking import of food :/

Good point. Am rather amused at people refusing to believe or belittling a reaction that will be anti-West from all of this, especially after they're done crowing about the Western victory here. Will be an interesting new year.

[Zoraptor]

It's rather indicative that the west thinks it's going to work anyway. Hitler couldn't break the Russian spirit with Stukas and Panzers, yet Obama thinks sanctions will work?

 

Plus, of course, it's a balancing act: the best organised opposition groups are not the pro western groups which are largely seen as stooges and 5th columnists outside of the very restricted circles in which western people orbit in Russia, they're the Zyuganov/ Zhirinovsky Communists/ Nationalists. Or the military. And from the western perspective they're far worse than Putin, far far worse. They shouldn't be aiming for 'regime change' because it's a stupid policy by any measure- but then western foreign policy is hardly replete with nuanced and well informed examples of sense, rather it's full of stuff they could hardly have done much worse if they'd tried.

[Rostere]

You know, I've argued before against the idiotic notion that the US is using sanctions to bring about regime change. I've said that this is stupid because if there is anything the US should have learned it is that sanctions extremely rarely have that effect. Seeing lately how they have used torture to try to gain information, maybe they really are so stupid as to use sanctions for regime change. Maybe it is too much to assume that even the leaders of the world's largest countries act rationally.

 

Now, shifting to what you CAN do with sanctions: wreck the Russian economy. Putin can build his fighter jets from cardboard in the future if he feels like trying to redraw the borders of European countries. You cannot overstate the importance of immediately sapping the economic power of a country which starts to annex parts of their neighbours in this fashion. Let us remember what the prelude to WW2 has taught us. Chauvinistic nationalism must be crushed utterly in it's infancy before the situation escalates.

[Malcador]

Well, and hope they don't do something insane like invade the Ukraine and see what NATO does. Hm, also, Ukraine's going to be pretty messed up even if Russia does leave Crimea and ceases whatever support the rebels will have, no ?

Edited December 17, 2014 by Malcador

[Agiel]

NATO likely wouldn't do much of anything in the event of whole Russian Guards Tank and Motor Rifle Divisions rolling into Eastern Ukraine, save perhaps offering some equipment such as battle management systems,  night observation gear, medical supplies, and so forth (the ZSU has plenty of stuff that can throw a round downrange; they're sorely lacking in everything else). Even a drive to break out of Donbass is unlikely; Russia's armed forces at the moment meet the bare minimum for securing their own frontiers and exerting influence in its periphery in places like the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Far East, and it's certainly no better equipped to effect regime change and quell the inevitable pro-Kiev insurgency in Ukraine than any other country in the world.

 

However, a NATO concern is that if a Russian invasion succeeds in consolidating a de facto state of Novorossiya the way it has for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, would it embolden pro-Kremlin elements in the Baltics? Feeling compelled to maintain some consistency in his policy towards defending Russian minorities in its near abroad, would Putin act to "liberate" them as well? In that event NATO is obliged to respond, however given the lack of strategic depth in the Baltics, and whatever forward-deployed forces there serving as a tripwire at best, I don't see NATO pushing the "Green Men" back before half of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (and more likely even more) are turned to rubble, and that's before we talk about Russia's policy of "Nuclear De-escalation". 

[Wrath of Dagon]

This reminds me, if you want to see that for yourself : http://www.battlefront.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=335&Itemid=579

 

Btw, they started developing this game long before the current events in Ukraine, just like their previous game about a war in Syria was done long before the actual war in Syria.

[Agiel]

Some enterprising scenario designers for Steel Beasts also created their own campaign based around the conflict:

 

https://my.pcloud.com/publink/show?code=XZV4J7ZUAcJeDwKjakBMCtiLtYl00PJUlfV

 

It also served as fodder for a very interesting anti-A2/AD scenario for C: MANO made by Baloogan:

 

http://baloogancampaign.com/2014/03/13/crimean-war-episodes-operation-tiger-rifle/

Edited December 17, 2014 by Agiel

[Malcador]

Ah, well armchair soldiering aside, this is all part of stopping another domino effect.

Edited December 17, 2014 by Malcador

[Agiel]

What is not modeled is the after-effects of such a conflict, as win, lose or draw for either side carries consequences that I personally shudder to contemplate.

 

"Terror of the unforeseen is what the science of history hides..."

-Phillip Roth

[BruceVC]

Well, have they really worked ? Crimea is still in Russian hands and the Good Ukranians still haven't won. I guess hurting Russia was an end in itself, but is it oil prices falling hurting more than sanctions ?

 

Wait, what genocide was going in Libya, by the way ?

 

No there was no intention to  hurt Russia in anyway until it annexed Crimea. So this isn't  personal. But even the word " hurt " is a bit exaggerated. The West has a simple objective, to get Russia to pull out of Ukraine. And sanctions is the adopted and correct strategy. Russia's  strategy on deciding what countries should be part of its greater empire has been going on for a while and the West has basically ignored there previous aggression, like in Georgia and Abkhazia and South Ossetia

 

Russia has been using the same approach  for a while, its considers certain  ex-USSR countries Russian. The citizens of those states even consider themselves Russian but what Russia has now been ignoring is that those states and areas are part of sovereign countries and the governments of those countries don't want to  be part of Russia. You cannot redesign a countries borders because it suits your plans of Russian hegemony

 

Personally I believe the West tried to overlook Russia actions, like in Georgia, but Putin went too far in Ukraine. Russia can go for years suffering under this economic maelstrom but the right thing to do is just pull out from Ukraine and stop supporting the separatists. Crimea is probably more complicated as that has been annexed

 

No one wants sanctions against Russia, they also hurt certain Western countries. But this punitive step is necessary to get Russia to rethink its political views in respects to a place like Ukraine

[obyknven]

Lol, enemies of Russia worrying about Russian economy again. It's remind me times of WW2, when Nazi spread propaganda about  terrible Soviet economy and bad life in USSR,  but send population from occupied lands  into concentration camps "for work", or kill them by famine (or just mass execute locals  in fields).

 

Anyway all your sentences about  Russian economy is totally wrong. Yep, many Russians jump into money speculations now (i also), just because every day of ruble falling give to  us more money than any other work can do, but this is temporary situation. For Government such situation very well also. Local Russian manufacturers are happy also, cost to our products become one of most lowest in the world, and foreign manufacturers cant into competition with us.

 

 Also Russia easily can cut all negative effects just by beginning of war in Europe. All our wars are extremely profitable in difference with NATO wars.

[Chilloutman]

Lol, enemies of Russia worrying about Russian economy again. It's remind me times of WW2, when Nazi spread propaganda about  terrible Soviet economy and bad life in USSR,  but send population from occupied lands  into concentration camps "for work", or kill them by famine (or just mass execute locals  in fields).

yeah never happend in USSR (acctualy you won on death count) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulag 

 

Anyway all your sentences about  Russian economy is totally wrong. Yep, many Russians jump into money speculations now (i also), just because every day of ruble falling give to  us more money than any other work can do, but this is temporary situation. For Government such situation very well also. Local Russian manufacturers are happy also, cost to our products become one of most lowest in the world, and foreign manufacturers cant into competition with us.

 

Well you can lie to yourself - truth is your manufacturers are almost non-existing except for few military ones - whole econmy is based on natural resources so go figure

 

Also Russia easily can cut all negative effects just by beginning of war in Europe. All our wars are extremely profitable in difference with NATO wars.

And this is just simply sic as we know what was death count of russians in WW2 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#USSR

[Drowsy Emperor]

You know, I've argued before against the idiotic notion that the US is using sanctions to bring about regime change. I've said that this is stupid because if there is anything the US should have learned it is that sanctions extremely rarely have that effect. Seeing lately how they have used torture to try to gain information, maybe they really are so stupid as to use sanctions for regime change. Maybe it is too much to assume that even the leaders of the world's largest countries act rationally.

 

Now, shifting to what you CAN do with sanctions: wreck the Russian economy. Putin can build his fighter jets from cardboard in the future if he feels like trying to redraw the borders of European countries. You cannot overstate the importance of immediately sapping the economic power of a country which starts to annex parts of their neighbours in this fashion. Let us remember what the prelude to WW2 has taught us. Chauvinistic nationalism must be crushed utterly in it's infancy before the situation escalates.

 

When its Russians doing it its chavunistic nationalism but when european heads of state are giving financial and literal support to an armed rebellion (full of extreme right types) then that's what? Spreading freedom and democracy? 

 

The difference between outright annexing a part of a country (and Crimea has never, historically, belonged to Ukraine) and controlling it by proxy through a puppet government is purely one of form. Russia took Crimea from Ukraine? Boo hoo. The US and the EU took Ukraine from Ukrainians, only they're far too much under the influence of war propaganda to see it now. The end of Yanukovich was the end of Ukrainian independence and came about, ironically, precisely because he wanted to make an independent move and accept Putin's credit.

 

I fail to see how Russia's nationalism in their own "back yard" is worse than EU's/US's colonialism in eastern europe.

 

What WW1 has taught us is that aggressive expansion with disregard for the interests of large countries will lead to them using aggressive measures to protect those same interests (European empires > Germany WW1, US> Japan WW2). What WW2 has taught us is that attempting to crush and humiliate a major player in world politics will lead to even worse backlash than the first time around. 

Was critical thinking at such a premium that you had to take at face value the shallow explanations of high school history classes?

 

Finally, the point of the sanctions is to pressure the mondialist (as opposed to patriotic) and amoral financial elite in Russia. To ruin their business is a way to undermine Putin's support until they flip and start scheming to bring him down. They don't care who is in power (unlike the populace) and would probably like another Yeltsin best whose door they used to kick in whenever they needed anything.

Edited December 17, 2014 by Drowsy Emperor

[HoonDing]

Everytime I see this topic bumped I wonder whatever happened with ISIS and ebola.

[Drowsy Emperor]

Baby steps towards WW3 in Europe are a bit more important than either

[Malcador]

No there was no intention to  hurt Russia in anyway until it annexed Crimea. So this isn't  personal. But even the word " hurt " is a bit exaggerated. The West has a simple objective, to get Russia to pull out of Ukraine. And sanctions is the adopted and correct strategy. Russia's  strategy on deciding what countries should be part of its greater empire has been going on for a while and the West has basically ignored there previous aggression, like in Georgia and Abkhazia and South Ossetia

 

Russia has been using the same approach  for a while, its considers certain  ex-USSR countries Russian. The citizens of those states even consider themselves Russian but what Russia has now been ignoring is that those states and areas are part of sovereign countries and the governments of those countries don't want to  be part of Russia. You cannot redesign a countries borders because it suits your plans of Russian hegemony

 

Personally I believe the West tried to overlook Russia actions, like in Georgia, but Putin went too far in Ukraine. Russia can go for years suffering under this economic maelstrom but the right thing to do is just pull out from Ukraine and stop supporting the separatists. Crimea is probably more complicated as that has been annexed

 

No one wants sanctions against Russia, they also hurt certain Western countries. But this punitive step is necessary to get Russia to rethink its political views in respects to a place like Ukraine

 

Uh huh "hurt" is exaggerated and you have people crowing on or calling for the ruination of Russia's economy (I suppose a nuclear armed state having severe troubles is cool, heh).  if Russia wanted the eastern half of Ukraine, I'm surprised they just didn't go take it and not be subtle about it, well assuming they are in the Ukraine to the degree the West says.  If they do pull out, I wonder how that will go forward, the civil war might not end neat and tidy so NATO involvement right on Russia's border ?

 

Not too sure Russia went too far with Ukraine, Georgia doesn't matter, Ukraine does matter to the West for some reason and serves their purpose.