Renewed unrest in Egypt

[Walsingham]

You make a valid point about negotiation, Rosti. I haven't been tracking that aspect to be frank.

 

Having said that, do you get the feeling that the Brotherhood want to negotiate? Their actions seem to indicate that they think they re-mobilise in the streets and bring down the government. Again.

 

From tehir pperspective, they have a lot to lose by retiring peacefully. Pretty embrassing to take power and then get booted by popular protest. Better to come back in by the same method, and clamp down hard.

[Rostere]

You make a valid point about negotiation, Rosti. I haven't been tracking that aspect to be frank.

 

Having said that, do you get the feeling that the Brotherhood want to negotiate? Their actions seem to indicate that they think they re-mobilise in the streets and bring down the government. Again.

 

From tehir pperspective, they have a lot to lose by retiring peacefully. Pretty embrassing to take power and then get booted by popular protest. Better to come back in by the same method, and clamp down hard.

 

Yes, I get the feeling that the MB is not really interested in negotiation. But since we don't know what deals they have been offered by the new interim government, we don't know if that is a reasonable attitude or if they're wasting people's lives on the street out of spite.

[Walsingham]

Well, I wouldn't say out of spite.

 

Out of a ludicrous, commie-inspired truckload of bull****, certainly. But not out of spite.

[Wrath of Dagon]

They don't see it as wasting lives, they see it as going to their heavenly reward.

[Zoraptor]

Yeah, it's not as if the MB actually won an election or anything. Two, actually, given they won the Presidential and Parliamentary elections, both handily. Brave crusaders for democracy and right, so long as the right people win the election, of course.

 

If the roles were reversed it'd just be different people shouting about the 'glorious martyrs for democracy and freedom' rather than the 'glorious martyrs for democracy and the Muslim Brotherhood'. Funny too, how when it was Syrian security forces killing considerably less people that was heavy handed mass murder and the claims of  police being killed was 'propaganda', yet when it happens in Egypt... brave coppers fighting brutal civilians! Have you seen what their thuggish heads and extremist chests did to the brave and patriotic bullets fired at them? Just needs the claims of foreign mercenary gangs for it to be complete... oh what? The military has already blamed Hamas you say? Well, I'll be damned!

[Wrath of Dagon]

hitler was also elected. Elections don't mean a hell of a lot unless you have rule of law.

[Walsingham]

Yeah, it's not as if the MB actually won an election or anything. Two, actually, given they won the Presidential and Parliamentary elections, both handily. Brave crusaders for democracy and right, so long as the right people win the election, of course.

 

If the roles were reversed it'd just be different people shouting about the 'glorious martyrs for democracy and freedom' rather than the 'glorious martyrs for democracy and the Muslim Brotherhood'. Funny too, how when it was Syrian security forces killing considerably less people that was heavy handed mass murder and the claims of  police being killed was 'propaganda', yet when it happens in Egypt... brave coppers fighting brutal civilians! Have you seen what their thuggish heads and extremist chests did to the brave and patriotic bullets fired at them? Just needs the claims of foreign mercenary gangs for it to be complete... oh what? The military has already blamed Hamas you say? Well, I'll be damned!

 

Point well made. However, isn't the point that however democratic the MB were when they came in, they were attempting to lock themselves in undemocratically?

 

(Thats' an actual question, not rhetorical)

[Wrath of Dagon]

MB has never believed in democracy, except as a way to get into power. Their goal is a global caliphate under Sharia.

[Zoraptor]

However, isn't the point that however democratic the MB were when they came in, they were attempting to lock themselves in undemocratically?

 

 

It's all a bit murky.

 

The Egyptian 'constitution', such as it was, was established under the military with the understanding that it would be rewritten by the elected officials after an election. The MB won sufficient seats to be able to write the constitution without needing to rely on those they were ideologically opposed to. There is, of course, an argument that they should have written a more inclusive constitution anyway- but equally there is an argument that Egypt was getting exactly what was voted for. 2/3+ of the parliamentary seats were won by either the MB or Salafists, their argument would be that they could write their constitution for the 2/3+, or for the remaining 1/3-, not both.

 

Ultimately the problem is that any overtly religious party whether it be muslim, christian, hindu or whatever claims it's mandate- ultimately- from their religion rather than the voters. And you also have situations like the minaret referendum in Switzerland, for example, where it was the christian majority making the law, or the headscarf ban in France that was worded neutrally, but clearly intended to enforce a dress code on muslims.

Edited August 16, 2013 by Zoraptor

[Rostere]

There were a lot of rather secular Muslims who had voted for the MB (that is, the FJP). They were very disappointed with Mursi, because they did not believe he would go so far. Remember Ennahda in Tunisia and AKP in Turkey who has not enforced similar constitutions. Both are nominally Islamic parties with partly secular voters, who get along rather well with their opposition, or at least I thought so until some months ago, now I don't even know that anymore.

 

We also have got to recognize it's the first election in Egypt. They don't know yet why it's a good idea to separate church and state. "You're a Muslim, why don't you vote for an Islamist leader? That's what all good Muslims do. The other candidates are just not Islamic." How do you think the ordinary Egyptian reacts to that? I think there are more who self-identify as Muslims than who really want "Islamic" policies.

[Zoraptor]

Don't know about that. Certainly, there are a lot of people saying that, and saying that the military has majority support, but I'm sceptical on the numbers and extent just as much as I'm sceptical when I'm told any such figures, because they're very easy to say but far more difficult to provide real evidence for, let alone prove. They're suppositional and assertive only, the only objective measure is how many people voted for the various parties. Might as well claim that  Obama or any other western leader's election is illegitimate because their broken promises and unfulfilled pledges means a proportion of people voted for them under false pretences, and thus any military coup against them was justified. Simply put, the MB was always honest about being a Big I Islamist party and if you were an Egyptian liberal or anything else and voted for them thinking they were anything other than that then you were an idiot, plain and simple, and you'll probably vote idiotically next time as well. That is, after all, what happens in mature western democracies as well, people buy into the dream of Cool Brittania and end up with Tony Bliar a few years down the track.

 

Mainly though, this whole set up is only going to benefit one group long term, and it isn't the army or liberals. The people who voted MB- for the sake of lack of argument, the committed supporters- are unlikely to vote for Ahmed El Iberal or Mustafa Ah Mefan after all this is over and the MB is banned again, they'll vote for another Islamist party, and likely the second largest elected party in the just dissolved assembly- the Salafists. Who'd like to turn Egypt into a clone of their paymasters in Saudi Arabia, not some fluffy western daydream of tolerance. If even half the MB supporters do that you end with them in the position the MB was holding.

Edited August 16, 2013 by Zoraptor

[Walsingham]

I can't beleive you just used the term Tony Bliar, in a rant against over-simplification.

[Rostere]

I don't mean to say the MB were deliberately misleading people. Just that if democracy is a new thing to you, you might not recognize the obvious pitfalls. Besides I can't emphasize enough that there is a large group of people who is very undecided with how to self-identify, and very unsure of what "Islamist" or "Liberal" even means in an Egyptian context. The MB is going to seem appealing for their consistent opposition to military dictatorship and their charity work, even to a liberal. In a nation where the majority are very religious Muslims, "Islamic" does not have the same awful ring to it as it does to us.

 

There are of course also degrees of this. For example in American presidential elections, the candidates are often asked about their religious beliefs by interviewers. If the same things had been emphasized in Sweden people would have switched TV channel or sent angry mails. If someone had tried to "sell" himself by talking about his religious beliefs everyone would be very sceptical. Egypt is even more religious than than the US (and in fact one of the most religious countries in the world), so emphasizing your religion is a natural move in an election. Egyptians are likely to have no scepticism towards parties who fish for voters using religion. This, combined with the fact that they have zero democratic tradition, is of course a catastrophe.

 

Now, when these leaders grab power, and then ignores the economic woes but argues with each other in perpetuity over issues such as whether women should constitutionally be subservient to men, these Egyptians get a rough awakening. Maybe they should not have voted for someone whose best credential is that he is devout, maybe they should have voted for a statesman instead. Maybe they should not have voted for someone who would like to impose HIS interpretation of Islam on everyone.

[IndiraLightfoot]

One scary thing about Egypt is that army has the society in such a firm grip and that goes decades back. I heard it on the news that the army owns a lot of factories making popular food and drink, and they also own tourist complexes and other surprising facilities. They are nestled into all places where the money is, I guess. It will be next to impossible to remove them without resorting to violence in spades, and then we'd get another Syria, but probably even worse, given the religious conflicts already being as bad as they are, especially between Muslims and Copts.

[Walsingham]

I am nodding along with Rosti here. To me, as an Englishman, the European habit of having 'Christian Democratic' parties strikes me as very very weird. But I don't think that they represent difficulties for democracy in real terms.

 

 

I also feel charitably that in a state where corruption, decadence, and factional interests are funting everything sideways, a fellah <sic> who has a clear and distinct religious/nationalist agenda is going to look good.

 

It's just unfortunate that such people get their iron-clad stiff necks by imagining a mandate from a higher power.

[Zoraptor]

Meh, I find the whiff of 'poor naive egyptians, didn't know what they're voting for' a bit unpalatable, that is all, as it can equally be applied to a whole bunch of europeans buying into stuff naively. That, Wals, is why I used the Cool Brittania/ Tony Bliar dichotomy. People buy into the Blair myth, and when it gets punctured it becomes the Bliar myth- and it's always the same person, same political party, same political philosophy; and often interested in the most trivial guff even when there's far more important stuff to deal with. If the Egyptians in general bought into the MB myth- which no doubt some did, it's only the numbers which would be in dispute- then they're no more or less naive than anyone else.

 

But as I say, I don't find the theory that a large proportion of people who voted for the MB did so under a misapprehension or because they were naive very convincing since the MB's agenda and philosophy was very well known. It'd be like claiming that westerners are astounded if a typical right wing party cuts benefits and privatises stuff, they're a right wing party, it's what they do. An Islamist party believes that Islam is the fundamental bedrock of a state, that's what they do, writing Islam into the constitution is as natural to them as an environmental agenda is to a Green party.

[Walsingham]

But I thought they were gathering power around themselves the way a man who's been feeling sick all day and is now hungry gathers takeaway menus.

Edited August 16, 2013 by Walsingham

[Cultist]

I loled when someone threw paper box at the armored transport at ~6:00.

[Walsingham]

Amazing that the crowd isn't dispersing despite apparently taking live rifle or MG fire. Clearly teargas (mentioned earlier) is in use, or has been used.

 

Also fascinating to me is how the crowd is suppressed differentially. many people are peeking or even sitting in full view. You've got folks getting hit, and all sort sof different reactions.

 

Crazy that compared with when I was young the way you've got handheld cameras and reportage happening at this low level.

 

~

 

Trainspotter aside: I got confused and thought those might be Fuchs APCs, but suspected they weren't so checked. They are homegrown 'Fahd' APCs, modelled along similar lines to fuchs.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Some more about MB : http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/truth-about-egypt

[licketysplit]

That footage is insane, they are practically throwing their lives away. I'm all for protesting but self preservation should kick in at some point.

[BruceVC]

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-08-16/saudi-arabia-stands-with-egypt-against-terrorism/

 

 

I see that Saudi Arabia supports the actions of the Egyptian military. They said "The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its people and government stood and stands by today with its brothers in Egypt against terrorism"

 

An interesting decision and it probably means that the other Sunni dominated countries will follow suite. I am reserving my opinion on this as I recognize the importance that Saudi Arabia plays and this situation is complicated

Edited August 17, 2013 by BruceVC

[Fighter]

Not to approve what's going on but religious freaks of all types need to be kept away from power.

[BruceVC]

Not to approve what's going on but religious freaks of all types need to be kept away from power.

 

100 %, I completely agree.

[Hiro Protagonist]

 

 

I haven't been following this or how it started. No idea what prompted this. Don't understand why people are out when APCs are driving through the city and guns are being fired and people dying. I'd be inside trying to stay safe.